PROPOSED ARTICLES FOR DCI'S BI-WEEKLY WARNING REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000400120038-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 18, 2013
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: September 9, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/18: CIA-RDP91B00776R000400120038-4
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9 September 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Proposed Articles for DCI's Bi-weekly Warning Report
1. My staff and I decided today that the following items warrant
attention in the next edition of our Bi-weekly Warning Report for the
Director, which you should receive on or about 21 September. Note that we
often find--due to more detailed investigation, further consideration,
changing events, or adequate coverage by the Community--that some issues
ultimately do not meet our criteria for warning the DCI. Thus, you may not
again see all of these topics:
o Pakistan: Political Prospects. Pakistan is vulnerable to instability
associated with the scheduled 16 November elections. PPP violence or
declaration of martial law would be damaging to Pakistani and US
interests. The US's best bet could be a court ordered delay in the
elections until Pakistan adjusts further to the post-Zia era.
Community analysts are focusing on the election outcome rather than
implications of a postponement.
o Chile: Plebiscite Implications. The campaign continues to be tough.
Both "yes" and "no" votes have major implications. The Communists
remain a wild card. Violence is likely. The US can shoot itself in
the foot with excessively loud demands for an opposition win.
o Honduras: Impact of_Refugee Influx. The steady flow of armed
Contras,,families, and supporters is straining Honduran resources and.
patience. Tegucigalpa expects Washington to ease its burden and ?
harbor the defeated rebels. The policy community has been slow to
come to grips with the problem; it may be running out of time to
settle the issue without major dislocation and recriminations.
o Israel/West Bank/PLO: Dynamics. The region is in a state of flux.
The upcoming Israeli election and PLO decisions about its future role
on the West Bank may lead to a new proposals that could reshape the
political landscape. Harry will speculate about possibilities. The
analysis will be especially conjectural.
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/18: CIA-RDP91B00776R000400120038-4
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/18: CIA-RDP91B00776R000400120038-4
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o India: Crossing the Nuclear Threshold. The Indian Army has begun.
including employment of nuclear weapons in its command and general
staff training curriculum. India is developing nuclear capable
delivery systems to each branch of service. This will improve
India's capabilities and alarm Pakistan yet more.
2. I Will add warning issues to the Report as events warrant and invite
both your comments on our selections and suggestions for other articles.
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/18: CIA-RDP91B00776R000400120038-4
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