POLAND: NEW CONFRONTATION POSSIBLE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000400140010-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2013
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: November 9, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400140010-2
SECR E T
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC 03291-88
9 November 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Poland: New Confrontation Possible
1. The attached Special Warning Topic Memorandum contains my views on
intensified government and labor disputes in Poland. The Polish government,
led by new Prime Minister Rakowski who intensely dislikes Solidarity and its
leader, Walesa, is now pursuing an aggressive course against Solidarity which
could lead to violence and national crisis.
2. The National Intelligence Officer for Warning and his staff prepared
.this Warning Memorandum and are entirely responsible for its contents.
/'V1- unaries, t. Alien
Attachment:
As stated
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400140010-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400140010-2
SECRET
NOFORN
The stage has been set for a major confrontation between the Jaruzelski
regime and Solidarity. The regime's de facto repudiation of its agreement to
open roundtable talks in exchange for Solidarity leader Walesa's assistance in
ending strikes last August has created a potentially explosive test of
strength.
Warsaw authorities are pursuing high risk tactics in attempting to
discredit Walesa and divide him and his.advisers from rank-and-file workers
and, ultimately, destroy Solidarity. The decision to close the Lenin shipyard
in Gdansk was intended to demonstrate Walesa's inability to protect even
Solidarity's birthplace. These tactics may prove to be a major miscalculation.
Walesa is under heavy pressure to achieve both a reversal of the shipyard
decision and legalization of the union, and Warsaw's hardline tactics may
force him to abandon efforts to keep the door open to negotiations while
appeasing militant workers and rivals in Solidarity's leadership.
Tensions are mounting rapidly and further provocations by the regime
might trigger violent clashes which could quickly escalate into a major
national crisis.
NOFORN
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/14: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400140010-2