INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON REACTION TO NORMALIZATION OF RELATIONS WITH THE PROPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91M00696R000500030005-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 20, 2012
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: July 7, 1977
• Content Type: MF

Le. 11
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/04/20: CIA-RDP91 M00696R000500030005-4
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SE, ET GDS
WASHINGTON
July 7, 1977
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Estimate on Reaction to
Normalization of Relations with the
People's Republic of China
As per the June 27 PRC meeting on our China policy, you are
requested to undertake a study of the impact of our establishing
full diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China under
the following conditions:
1. With the establishment of diplomatic relations with Peking,
diplomatic relations and the Treaty with the Republic of China would
lapse.
2. The terms of recognition" would enable the people of Taiwan
to sustain a prosperous economy and evolve their relationship with the
mainland in peace.
3. Advanced consultation with Taipei and our allies most directly
concerned -- Tokyo, Seoul, Manila, Bangkok, Jakarta, Singapore,
Kuala Lumpur, Canberra, Wellington, London, Paris, and Bonn --
would have been undertaken. The move would not come as a surprise
or shock.
4. Key Congressional figures would have been forewarned of the
move and the reasons for it.
Naturally, were such a delicate inquiry to become public, it would have
a significant policy impact. I therefore request that the intelligence
estimate be undertaken through particularly secure channels.
Zbigniew Brzezinski
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/04/20: CIA-RDP91 M00696R000500030005-4