PUBLIC TREATMENT OF THE ESTIMATES ADVISORY PANEL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91M00696R000500160010-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 17, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: June 24, 1976
• Content Type: MF

f 74
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24 June 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR: Assistant to the Director
SUBJECT . Public Treatment of the Estimates Advisory Panel
Attached are the papers that I mentioned. Paragraph 5 of the
Director's guidelines established the Advisory Panel. My memo is an
effort to develop the ground rules under which the Panel will function.
Paragraph lh, however, is the problem. My colleagues and I are not
in accord on the question of publicity and of identifying Panel mem-
bers. There are good ar'gOments either way and the decision will
ultimately have to be put to the Director. I will try to organize
a session with him next week to debate the issue and I think he would
want you present.
25X1
i c h ar d _L e man
Deputy to the DCI for National Intelligence
Attachments
D/DCI/NI:RLehman:lm (24 June 76)
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee
1 - EO/NI
Cl)- EAP File
1 - D/DCI/NI Chrono
1 - RI
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 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGr
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4 June 1976 7 `
MEN']ORANDLJM FOR ITIE NATIO IL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD
SUBJECT Guidelines for National Intelligence Production
1. I have approved the attached guidelines for national intelli-
gence production. In so doing, I am stating my strong support for the
National Intelligence Officer concept.
2. The Deputy to the DCI for National Intelligence will organize
the Intelligence Advisory Panel and the steering group called for in
Paragraph 6.
3. Issuance of a revised DCID 1/1 will be deferred until satis-
factory procedures involving these new entities have been evolved. In
the interim, present procedures for the production of National Intelli-
gence Estimates and related papers will remain in force.
Attachment:
Guidelines for National
Intelligence Production
0
25X1
25X1
CON FI DE.NITIAL
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4 Ju,.e 1976
National Production
1. Organizational Location: Responsibility for national
intelligence production, other than current, will be lodged in
the Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, in accord-
ance with Executive Order 11905.
2. National IntelligenceOfficers: The National Intel-
ligence Officers will constitute the DCI's staff for this pur-
pose.
a. The NIO structure will be headed by
the Deputy to the DCI for National
Intelligence. He will work in close
cooperation with the DCI's Deputies
for the Agency and for the Community.
b. Each NIO will be a senior staff officer
who will serve the DCI directly as
senior counselor on his assigned area
of substantive responsibility.
c. The NIOs will he drawn as broadly as
possible from elements of the Intel-
ligence Community, other government
components, and outside government.
In principle, NIO assignments will
be rotational for two to three years.
d. The number of NIOs and the apportion-
ment of portfolios among them will
depend on the DCP s perception of
his needs at any given time.
3. Responsibilities: The NIOs will be responsible to the
DCI for:
a. Supervising non-current* national pro-
duction including:
'r-Cur)Levt irate tigertec~ cct ;tlte. 1za ,i.Ulta.(1 #('.ve_C W{Lt cos:-t,Jtue to
be a ram po-vsib.i.E.i ty o4 CIA. CIA and ate NIOa tai-f t concen.t
to avo.td incoyLs ins tency in ~5td)6 tasitcve n.epo,t-ti.szg.
(' f ~p~ !- ~t 25X1
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Estimates and Special National
Intelligence Estimates
-- National Intelligence Analytical
Memoranda
-- Interagency intelligence memoranda
and studies
-- Intelligence Alert Memoranda
-- Selected DCI briefings
-- Other analyses and assessments
of varying degrees of formality
requested by senior consumers --
or commissioned to fill an ob-
vious need -- whose preparation
involves the work of more than
one component of the Intelligence
Community.
b. Providing a coordinating mechanism,
operating on behalf of the DCI, to
focus the talents and resources of all
Community components on problems of
particular importance.
c. Maintaining continual dialogue with
senior consumers at the Assistant Sec-
retary level or above, or their military
equivalents, to ensure that they receive
the best possible intelligence support,
and to provide a channel for continuous
feedback on intelligence matters. This
responsibility will also include pro-
viding for the policy level consumer
one point of contact to which he can
turn for any form of intelligence sup-
port, knowing that his request will be
passed on to those elements of the Com-
munity best equipped to handle it.
d. Within the Intelligence Community, de-
veloping and maintaining contact among
all who work on any given substantive
area -- collectors, analysts and pro-
ducers.
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ensure
that intelligence production benefits
from the full range of thinking in the
United States.
f. Developing major substantive require-
ments and providing assistance to the
evaluation of intelligence performance,
in cooperation with the Deputy Director,
Community and his staff.
g. Performing any other tasks the DCI assigns.
4. Production Mechanism:
a. The NIOs will not normally function as
a production office.* The NIO structure
will not include a drafting staff.
b. The actual drafting of national products
will be done by line officers drawn from
the Community components best equipped to
handle the particular project in question.**
c. The drafting of national products will be
done under the supervision of the NIO re-
sponsible for the project in question. A
draft so produced will not be viewed as an
institutional product, i.e., neither the
office nor the component to which the
drafter(s) belong will be obligated to
support the draft during the coordination
process.
d. After a draft has been produced and re-
viewed, it will be submitted to concerned
line components for coordination and dis-
cussion. The precise nature of these
coordination procedures will vary with the
formality of the document -- NIEs and SNIEs
being the most formal. In every instance,
however, line entities will have ample
TWOiT_wU~e occasional i" lance s whe'ce, on mrcc,te'us o6 gneat
den6it vi.ty, some aen,ion. a46iciat w.iU a4k 6oJ: a ubstantve
comment qu.ie y pnepcviced by a 3-ingte peAAon.
** Pnaeedwces Son minimizing the di6,utp on a6 .Pine a66-ices' toorcfz
and e".s.ion o6 .Pine command ju,-LZsd.ict on en,ta.ited by t:hZ6 ap--
phoach wLe outPined in Panagncaph 6.
CONFIDEN T ,1
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an he responsible will be under
an obligation to ensure that the final
product fairly reflects significant
differences of opinion.*
5. Collegial keview (The Intelligence Advisory Panel):
One criticism of the current approach has been that national pro-
ducts do not, at any stage in their production, receive a collegial
review. This deficiency will be rectified by the creation of an
Intelligence Advisory Panel to the DCI.
a. This Panel will consist of approximately
three dozen highly-qualified people drawn
from a variety of disciplines. The Panel
will be recruited from within the Intel-
ligence Community, the non-intelligence
components of the government, and -- to
the extent feasible -- the outside world:
academia, industry and journalism.
b. The optimum point for collegial review in
the production process is after the basic
draft is prepared and before it is circu-
lated for coordination. Consequently, for
each NIE/SNIE or other significant national
product (deadlines permitting), three people
will be picked from the Intelligence Advisory
Panel to go over that particular paper in
draft.
-- The Panel members involved will
meet in Washington and spend what-
ever time is necessary going over
the draft with the NIO, the pro-
ject chairman and the drafters.
They will critique the draft for
balance and objectivity, ensuring
that it addresses the right ques-
tions, is clear and cogent, and
Coot na ,c:on among InteXtige.uce Commur7,ity components is an
e,sben .tae. Seatune o{y the pnoducticoa oS t',uf_y ncttx zate, ptc.odue .
The concept o6 coon.dina.ion does not ~ ,votue .trze de.v ~'opment
oG convsensus judgments. Divengeit. vaeo_S w.~.ir be submitted to
debate among hnow.eedgeabf-e expe,.ts, but cc'he 4e s gni6 i.can?t ditc-
5e&ences on .imponLtan.t -sues nermu.n totr,actved, they w.i,J be
ic.e~eected in the 4 i iat 6 in-cshed p.`coduct so ,tlutt pot c y .Eeve.e
covusumeu wifl be 6LL y awan.e ;Brat ;the1Le a,,e such di.4(1n.ences,
what they cute, and what afze theLi bas e.s .
-4-
CONF DENYiAJ.
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issues and cri tical variables.
-- Membership on the Intelligence Ad-
visory Panel will not entail a
large expenditure of time over a
prolonged period, but rather a
willingness to work intensively
for periods of short duration.
(The reason for having so large
a Panel is to ensure that on any
given national product three good
reviewers will be available.)
c. The Intelligence Advisory Panel can also ad-
vise the DCI on the overall quality of the
national production effort and can engage
in that effort the best talent available
in the United States. While the Panel will
seldom, if ever, meet as a whole, various
members of it can and will be convened to
participate in seminars or discussion groups
critiquing the totality of our effort in
various fields.
d. Although the Panel will be advisory to the
DCI, its normal point of contact with the
DCI's office will be D/DCI/NI.
6. Minimizing of Line Disruption: Since the NIO structure
will not have its own independent drafting staff and will be forced
to borrow talent from line components, some intrusion on line
offices is inevitable. The amount of this intrusion, however, will
be minimized by the following steps:
a. The D/DCI/NI will be responsible for
ensuring that requests for intelligence
support levied on the Intelligence Com-
munity through the NIOs do not over-
burden the system. Should this occur,
he will raise this problem directly with
requesting consumers to refine their
requests or put them in priority order,
and will advise the DCI on the problems
involved as appropriate.
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that will include the heads of the major
production components of the Intelligence
Community. This group will meet regularly
to review the national production effort
and ensure that the workload is properly
and fairly distributed. It will keep
under continuing review production sched-
ules and requests for specific projects
involving extensive work to ensure that
tasking for national products is handled
with the greatest efficiency and least
disruption to line components.
c. Each NIO will be specifically charged with
levying his requirements through the appro-
priate chain of command of the Intelligence
Community components involved. The pro-
cedures used by each NIO with each com-
ponent will be worked out to the satis-
faction of the component's head.
d. Any component head who feels that NIO-
sponsored tasking is disrupting his office
should take this matter up initially with
the NIO involved, then with the D/DCI/NI
and -- if that does not prove satisfactory --
directly with the DCI.
7. Credit for National Products:
a. When a national product involves the work
of more than one Intelligence Community
component, identification of the offices
and components contributing to it will be
prominently noted in the document.
b. Where a request from a senior consumer,
passed through the NIO structure, is met
by a product which is predominantly the
work of a single Community component,
that component will issue the response.
It will be forwarded by the NIO to the
consumer with the transmittal note calling
attention to the fact that the consumer's
request was taken care of by the attached
"CIA Memo," "DIA Memo," etc.
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is to help knit the Community together as an organic whole and, in
producing national intelligence, draw on the totality of Community
resources. The NIOs will, however, have a special relationship
with CIA, growing naturally from the fact that CIA, as the only
producing organization fully dedicated to national intelligence
needs, plays a proportionately larger role in national production.
Arrangements will be worked out with the Deputy for CIA to ensure
that he is kept abreast of the uses that the NIOs are making of
CIA resources.
9. Relations with the De ut_to the DCI for the Intelligence
Community: The relationship between the NIO structure and the
Deputy Director, Community will obviously have to be a close and
cooperative one -- particularly with respect to the DCI committees
(formerly USIA committees) on which the NIOs will have to rely and
for which the Deputy Director, Community has supervisory responsi-
bility.
a. Arrangements will be devised to ensure
a mutually supportive relationship be-
tween the NIO structure and the Intel-
ligence Community Staff to:
-- Give the Deputy Director, Com-
munity guidance with respect to
basic needs, requirements, future
perspectives, etc;
-- Help him strike the right balance
between resources and substantive
needs, matching the former to the
latter wherever possible but ar-
ranging substantive needs in pri-
ority order.
-- Assist the Deputy Director, Com-
munity in his and his staff's
evaluation work.
b. These arrangements will be structured to
minimize areas of non-productively over-
lapping responsibilities. The NIOs, for
example, will be in continuous touch with
consumers to stay abreast of their evolving
needs; the IC Staff will be responsible for
evaluation of products and services -- but
both will contribute to giving the DCI over-
all assessments of the Community's total
performance.
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15 June 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Consensus of the NIO Meeting on the DCI`s Estimates
Advisory Panel, 11 June 1976
1. The National Intelligence Officers were generally
agreed as follows:
a. Criteria for Selection. Panel mem-
bers should have rather broad area or func-
tional specialties, as well as the cast of
mind that would enable them to be helpful
on subjects outside their specialties. Few
retirees from the Agency should be Panel
members, nor should many members be serving
intelligence officers. Indeed, the bulk of
Panel members should be from outside the
government. We should also, however, seek a
number of members from US government agencies
outside the Intelligence Community, both for
the perspectives they, as policy makers, could
lend on areas outside their official juris-
dictions and for the bridges they would help
build between the National Intelligence Of-
ficers and the rest of the government. Journal-
ists should not be sought at this time, but
editors and publishers of scholarly journals
could be. We want to be sure that the Panel
does not consist largely of those who have
already served us for years as consultants.
Indeed, we want to seek more prestigious
persons than we have sought before; younger,
up-and-coming academic stars; and those who
for ideological or political reasons probably
would not have agreed to serve only a year or
so ago.
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figure seems about right, though there is
nothing magic about it, and we certainly
would not want to reduce our flexibility by
setting any hard figure.
C. Term. Panel members will generally
serve for about three years and should so
understand. We will wish to stagger their
terms so that we will have a steady flow of
those joining and leaving, and we may wish
to extend the terms of some particularly
valuable members.
d. Functioning. The appropriate NIO will
decide which members of the Panel are invited
to form a sub-panel. Panel members will serve
as individuals; it is essentially up to them
to determine how they work once a sub-panel
is convened. There will be no need for them
to reach a consensus.
e. Satisfaction of Sub-Panel Members.
Sub-panel members will review a paper after
the responsible NIO is satisfied with his
draft and before coordination is sought.
Members will be told that their views are
essential, but may or may not be accepted.
In any case, their views will be made known
to the DCI, along with our position on
those views. Under certain unusual circum-
stances, such as a paper which produces a
persisting controversy, we may wish to re-
convene a sub-panel or subsequently to seek
privately the individual's views of its
members.
f. ypes of Production Reviewed. We
expect that Panel members will review NIEs,
SNIEs, and some IIMs, if there is time and
if the subject is such that the members have
the ability to be helpful. We will assemble
a list of a dozen or so papers of the type
Panel members might have reviewed in the
past. We anticipate the review of 30 to 35
papers a year.
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g. Other uses of Panel. We anticipate
that uses of Panel members might develop, but
we cannot he specific at this time. Pros-
pective Panel members could be told, if they
ask, that they might be asked to provide other
types of advice as we gain experience with the
Panel and as its functioning evolves.
h. Public Acknowledgment of the Panel.
Prospective Panel members must understand
that we will make no effort to keep their
membership secret. To do so would only en-
courage misunderstanding about the purposes
and nature of the Panel and, perhaps, even
create an issue that would stimulate the
press.
i. Name of the Panel. Both to increase
the attractiveness of serving on the Panel
and to lessen the chances that its purposes
will be misunderstood, the Panel should be
named the Director of Central Intelligence's
Estimates Advisory Panel.
Richard Lehman
Deputy to the DCI for National Intelligence
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