FINNISH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 16-17 JANUARY 1956.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91T01172R000300070028-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: December 14, 1955
• Content Type: MEMO

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OCI No. 8583/55 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Copy No. , ., OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
14 December 1955
TO: Deputy Director (Intelligence)
SUBJECT: Finnish Presidential Election of 16-17 January 1956.
1. Offices to be filled: Three hundred presidential electors
representing the country's six political parties. The elec-
tors in turn will elect the president from among a list of six
candidates on 15 February. The president-elect takes office
on 1 March and serves for six years.
2. Parties or factions participating:
a. Social Democrats - Largest party; moderate, Social-
ist, pro-Western; probably the country's most effec-
tive-anti-Communist group.
Agrarians - Second largest party; narrow appeal,
representing rural interests; supporters largely
conservative and pro-Western.
c. Three so-called "bourgeois" parties - National Coali.-
t .ion Party, Swedish People's Parry, and Finnish
aTt na Party which control-one fourth oft ie seats
in parliament and in general represent commercial
and industrial interests, white-collar workers and
the larger farmers; strongly pro-Western.
d. SKDL (Finnish People's Democratic League) Communist
popular front composed of Communist and splinter left-
wing Socialists; completely dominated by Communists.
3. Outstanding personalities: In addition to Paasikivi,
each of the six parties has nominated a candidate for
the presidency:
a. President Paasikivi--Although not a party nominee,
he remains the number one "dark horse" in the
election. He has not stated whether he will seek
re-election, but he reportedly is willing to serve
again if a majority of the parties so wish. Under
Finnish law, presidential candidates need not be
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nominated prior to the election of the electoral
college and need not be affiliated with any particular
party.
b. K. A. Fagerholm--Social Democrat nominee; a leading
contender for the presidency. He is acceptable to
all groups within the party as well as having consider-
able support in the "bourgeois" parties. Strong ties
with Social Democratic leaders throughout Scandinavia.
c. Prime Minister Urho Kekkonen--Agrarian nominee; a lead-
ing candidate for the presidency. He is a controver-
sial figure in Finnish politics and distrusted by
many Finns who regard him as being "too acceptable"
to the Soviet Union.
d. Eino Kilpi--SKDL (Communist) nominee. Communist
support, However, is likely to go to Kekkonen or
Paasikivi in the early balloting.
e. Sakari Tuomioja--National Coalition Party (conserva-
tive can idate. This party has announced it will
support Fagerholm if its own chances appear slight.
f. Ralf Tbrngren--Swedish People's Party nominee. This
party has also announced its intention to support
Fagerholm if its own chances are slight.
g. Eero Rydman--Finnish National Party (liberal) nominee.
This party may switch its support to either Fagerholm
or Paasikivi.
4. Present party strengths:
Parliament seats % of vote in % of vote in Electors
'54 parliamen- '50 presiden- elected in
tart' elections tial elections 150 presi-
Social
Democrats
54
26.2
Agrarians
53
24.1
SKDL
43
21.6
National
Coalition
24
12.8
Swedish
Peoples'
13
7.0
Finnish
National
13
7.9
2tU
dential
elections
21.7
64
19.5
62
21.3
67
22.4
68
8.7
24
5.3
15
3lU
2
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5. Principal issues: There are no vital issues in this
election, but since under the Finnish constitution the
president plays an important role in the formulation of
foreign policy, each party will seek to convince the
electorate that its candidate can best be relied on to
protect the country's interests in its delicate position
between East and West.
6. Principal factors influencing the outcome: Lines between
the Finnish politic; parties tradit ona ly are tightly
drawn and no significant defections are likely. In the
presidential elections, however, the voter is more in-
clined to vote for the individual rather than for the
party. On foreign policy, all parties agree that Finland
must maintain good relations with the Soviet Union.
7. Informed opinion on outcome: Of the two leading candi-
dates, Prime Minister Kek onen and Fagerholm, the latter
appears to be in a more favored position at the moment.
However, the outcome depends in large part on whether
President Paasikivi will agree to serve another term,
full or shortened. No one party is likely to gain a
majority of electoral votes on the first ballot; and if a
deadlock developed between Kekkonen and Fagerholm, there
probably would be an attempt to break it by falling back
on a compromise candidate. Paasikivi is the most likely
alternate candidate, but if he should decline because of
his age, one of the small "bourgeois" party candidates
might be favored.
If the Agrarian and SKDL (Communist) electors decide that
Kekkonen's election is remote, they will probably seek
to prevent Fagerholm's election by nominating Paasikivi
who, if he consented to run, would receive the support
of the big majority of the electors.
8.
The election of Paasikivi, Fagerholm,or one of
the
"bourgeois"
party candidates would assure
the
continued
development
of strong ties between Finland
and
the
Scandinavian
countries, especially Sweden,
and
strengthen
its general Westward orientation. Relations with the
Soviet Union would remain correct, and every effort would
be made to maintain the so-called "trusting" relations
which apparently exist between the two countries now.
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The election of Prime Minister Kekkonen to the pres-
idency would be likely to have a divisive effect on
public opinion and might weaken the high respect and
prestige which is traditionally attached to the presi-
dency in Finland. While the president has been tradi-
tionally above party, Kekkonen's strong identification
with the Agrarians and his controversial position in
'Finnish political life might involve the presidency
in interparty wrangling.
Assistant Director
Current Intelligence
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