SENIOR REVIEW PANEL COMMENTS ON DRAFT CONCEPT PAPER AND TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR SNIE 56-2-87: THE PHILIPPINES: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE AQUINO GOVERNMENT, INTERNALLY DATED 1 DECEMBER 1987

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92T00306R000300080014-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2013
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: December 10, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/10: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300080014-8
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington. D.C. 20505
NIC-04237-87
Senior Review Panel 10 December 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Comments on Draft
Concept Paper and Terms of Reference (TOR)
for SNIE 56-2-87: The Philippines: Problems
and Prospects for the Aquino Government,
internally dated 1 December 1987
1. The Panel considers the present drafts significant
improvements over their predecessors. We think they strike a
much better balance among Mrs. Aquino's personality and
leadership style, Manila-focused issues, and more basic forces
and
trends work-thuo.uqhOut_thPhilippipes. .The Conept. 7a,7er
generally adresses-the chief issues, althugh the N.ey Questioni,i
? dOdld.be'more sharply .focused and precise. The TOR seern t. us
excessively schematic, making it difficult to tell from the
outline and a number of-single-term captions how various critical
issues will be treated. An effort to give more specific content
to the TOR outline at this preliminary stage-v/6111d, we think, be?
rewarding. Beyond these general observations,-we have a few
supplementary comments.
2. We are entirely agreed on the importance of this SNIE
and will be especially concerned to see how some of the dynamic
factors and forces for change, which we regarded as essential in
our comments on earlier drafts (November 3 and November 13) are
projected and woven into the eventual text. We continue to
believe that the following matters, for example, are critical to
the Estimate:
rtrends7-an-d-dynam-i-cs=of=ims-urgency in bat-h-u-rb-a-n-and
roral-a-ras
leader7ShIp-,--areas-of-growth-,-and-sources7.70I7support--f-an,
(t-trea
appr-a4s-a4-et-c4v444-an-fmi?i-tary-countertnsurgenty
prag-rat-S-gnd
?gy Signers
OADR
OV,SiW1
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/10: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300080014-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/10: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300080014-8
SECRET
int-ellectuaI-eurrents, including liberation theology and
dependeney-the6and their impact on the CathoI4-c--?
gptiTtCh-end-its_leaders.
tthe7prob?em-g76f-natIonal_con-scaldet-ion-in-a-land_of
7T100-4-s4-ands-and_multipl,e_1anguages-WhereL--the transport
and_communicaticinfrastructure=hasbeen-s-teaday,
di1-4d-dating,.
forces-end7t-rends-in-a-cont-luence-threateni-ng-a-llood-9,f
administrative tensions_and_probiems for Aihotich=.as
siya1,m1=1:I-tary-jztensdons,---coalitiOn-x11-5gOlutidirk
wIdespread=corruption7=andErural_unrest7ift7the-ab-s-e-nee
of-stgnifi-cant=lend-retorm.,,
3. Such factors suggest to us that the Key Questions might
be more helpfully phrased in terms of the potion-of--force'
and-trendi-tli7Which-the-Phfitppine_governmentr_ntfft-coperather
thaq7WE:longer-term-threatg to the Aquino government. Many of
the forces and trends are not necessarily "threats" in a
conventional sense, but they establish the critical factors in
Philippine prospects.
4. Implications for US Policy. To maximize the policy
relevance of the estimate, we think that theestimate, in its
concluding sections, should dIgtinguligh_among_natton-bui-lding7
prObl-dffig7-(which may require a-generation Or more), acrange_of)
metIYUFEerm-laaues-whach may be amenable ts early -but limited
progress,-and=a7-Tew-speeiTrazkey=probIems--e.g., the economy,
rural development, military effectiveness and -counterinsurgency
strategy?where substantial early advances could be made. We
believe that this can be done within an estimative framework;
that it should not involve specific policy recommendations; and
that it might helpfully clarify policymaking options.
William Leonhart
JoAn-Pherson Courtland D. Perkins
James D. Theberge
cc: AC/NIC (Mr. Hutchinson)
NIO for East Asia
2
SECRET
LL,. 4,40
Richard L. Walker
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/10: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300080014-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/10: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300080014-8
? SECRET
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Comments on Draft Concept Paper and
Terms of Reference (TOR) for SNIE 56-2-87: The
Philippines: Problems and Prospects for the Aquino
Government, internally dated 1 December 1987
ODCl/SRP:thelma
Distribution:
Oriq - DCI
- AC/NIC (Mr:, HutchinsOn)
1 - NIO for East Asia
1- NIO for Economics
1 -
1 -
Nb/AL/AG
PO/NIC
(Kate Hall)
STAT
1.-
Executive
Registry
1 -
SRP
File
1 -
SRP
Chrono
1 -
SRP
(Amb.
Leonhart)
1 -
SRP
(Gen.
McPherson)
3
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/10: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300080014-8