SNIE 56-88: THE PHILIPPINES: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE AQUINO GOVERNMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 28, 2013
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: March 15, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8
ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional) Precoordination Draft: SNIE 56-88: The Philippines: Problems and
Prospects for the Aquino Government
FROM: Carl W. Ford, Jr.
EXTENSION
NO.
NIC #00177-88/5
NIO for East Asia
DATE
15 March 1988
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
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.M Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30 : CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC #00177-88/5
15 March 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Acting Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Carl W. Ford, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for East Asia
SUBJECT: SNIE 56-88: The Philippines: Problems and Prospects for
the Aquino Government
1. Attached is a precoordination draft of SNIE 56-88: The Philippines:
Problems and Prospects for the Aquino Government. It was prepared under the
auspicps of the National TntplligenCe Officer for East Asia and was drafted by
of the Office of East Asian Analysis.
2. The SNIE responds to a request from the Bureau of East Asian and
Pacific Affairs, Department of State, for an estimate to complement a National
Security Study Memorandum now in progress. At State's request, it examines
the current threats and vulnerabilities facing the Aquino government over the
next year and evaluates the Aquino government's record of confronting the
threats, and its prospects for overcoming them over the long term. As such,
it concentrates somewhat more on problems and not so much on accomplishments.
3. An attempt has been made to accommodate the SRP's suggested
changes/additions to the SNIE wherever possible. Unfortunately, the Estimate
requested by the Department of State in November 1987 and the one envisioned
by the SRP--its views on a Philippine estimate are detailed in a September
1987 memorandum--are quite different. SRP suggestions that are compatible
with the Terms of Reference/Key Questions have been included. An annex and
several boxes have been added to accommodate other SRP comments. A number of
suggestions, however, have not been accepted because they would either entail
a major departure from the State request or add additional length to an
already over long draft. Since the changes stop short of adopting the
framework pressed by the SRP in its September-1987 memo, I suspect it will
find the present version little more to its liking than earlier drafts.
SECRET
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8 25X1
SECRET
4. In responding to the Senior Review Panel's comments about the policy
prescriptiveness of this Estimate, I have altered substantially the language
of the text to cast the Community's judgments in more conventional
intelligence language. In ?so doing, however, the overall tone of the Estimate
becomes somewhat more pessimistic. Moreover, we are now unable to answer the
questions of policymakers who recognize the problems of the Philippines, and
want to focus on what Filipinos might do to begin resolving their
difficulties.
5. Representatives from the Intelligence Community will meet on 17 March
1988 to coordinate this draft. I expect to have the Estimate ready for
consideration by NFIB on 24 March.
Attachment
SECRET
Carl W. Ford, Jr.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8
SECRET
NIC #00177-88/5
15 March 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Acting Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Carl W. Ford, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for East Asia
SUBJECT: SNIE 56-88: The Philippines: Problems and Prospects for
the Aquino Government
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee
1 - DDCI
1 - ER
1 - DCl/SA
1 - ADDI
1 - SRP
1 - AC/NIC (Hutchinson)
1 - VC/NIC (Gries)
1 - NIC/PO
1 - NIC Registry
- 1'- NIO/EA (Chron)
1 - NIO/EA (Dev)
ANIO/EA
14Mar88
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/30: CIA-RDP92T00306R000300090004-8