AGENDA FOR MARCH 1987 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020017-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: March 11, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020017-7
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC 01068-87
11 March 1987
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Agenda for March 1987 Latin America ,
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The March Latin America Warning Meeting will be held on
Wednesday, 18 March 1987 at 1015 hours in Room 7E32, CIA Headquarters.
Invited agencies and components should please keep their representatives
to a necessary minimum because of space limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics:
Nicaragua, Suriname, and the debt crisis.
Nicaragua
While rebel reinfiltration continues and the fighting has
intensified, the insurgents' political leadership remains in apparent
disarray, damaging the rebels' image abroad and threatening external
aid. Efforts to heal the rifts between the various factions seem to be
moving slowly. What is the impact of Cruz' resignation? What is the
viability of the most recent proposals for reforming UNO? How do each of
the factions see these schemes? Who are the most likely candidates for
an expanded UNO directorate? What efforts are the Sandinistas making to
undermine resistance unity? Meanwhile, Managua continues to show
interest in the Arias peace proposal and intends to participate in the
Central American presidential summit in Guatemala, now tentatively__
scheduled for late April.
Under what conditions
might Managua accept the Arias proposal? Will Arias allow the proposal
to be folded into the Contadora process? What will be the likely
positions of the other mediators and Central American governments? What
are the implications for Core Four unity? (State - 30 minutes)
Suriname
The military stalemate between the rebels and the Bouterse regime
continues, but insurgent attacks against economic targets are straining
the government and civil unrest is increasing. Meanwhile, Paramaribo
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020017-7
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continues to flirt with Libya looking for both economic and military
assistance. What is the current status of the fighting: does either
side seem to be gaining an edge and does the regime seem to be preparing
for a major offensive against the rebels? What are the prospects for the
Surinamese initiative to strengthen relations with Libya? If Bouterse
leaves the scene, would Brunswick assume control? If not, who would
likely fill the political vacuum? (CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
Brazil and the External Debt Crisis
The political and economic crisis initiated by Brazil's decision to
suspend foreign interest payments could prove more serious to bilateral
relations with the US and to the international financial community than
any of the previous debt crises of the mid-1980s. Brazil thus far has
refused to accept internationally-monitored adjustment programs and other
debtors are watching the negotiations closely. How will Brazil's posture
evolve on the question of resuming payments? What are the factors for
and against a tough debt posture, and what factors could weaken Sarney's
domestic support in the near term? Have there been any indications that
other debtor countries in Latin America could follow Brazil's lead?
(CIA/ALA - 20/30 minutes)
3. Please have your clearances passed
with your attendance plans no later than cob Tuesday, 17 March.
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020017-7