AGENDA FOR AUGUST 1986 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: August 14, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1
National Intelligence Council
STAT
SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
NIC 03775-86
14 August 1986
FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Agenda for August 1986 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. PLEASE NOTE: Due to a prior commitment, the August Warning
Meeting will be held on Wednesday, 27 August 1986 at 1015 hours in
Room 7D32, CIA Headquarters. Invited agencies and components should
please keep their representatives to a necessary minimum because of space
limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics: Jamaica,
Chile, Mexico and Nicaragua.
Jamaica
The 29 July local elections were a severe blow to Prime Minister
Seaga and his Jamaica Labor Party (JLP). With 57% of the popular vote,
Michael Manley, leader of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP),
is now well positioned to win the next general election. Manley appears
to be in no hurry to press for general elections and would probably
prefer to sit back and watch the JLP continue to grapple with the
country's problems. Nevertheless, the election must be held by 1988.
How will the JLP attempt to improve its prospects? Will Seaga make a
drastic change in economic policies? In foreign policy? Will Manley try
to promote a moderate image by avoiding extremist attacks on Seaga's
policies? Will this allow the left-wing of the PNP to regain lost
influence? (State/INR - 30 minutes)
Chile
Civilian opponents of President Pinochet have received encouraging
signals from several senior military figures in recent weeks. At least
two members of the Junta, plus assorted other senior military officers,
have expressed their opposition to Pinochet's seeking reelection in
1989. They believe he cannot win a fair election and that the armed
1
SECRET/
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1
cS TAT
JIPAI
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1
SECRET STAT
forces will not tolerate massive electoral fraud. Several prominent
military figures (including General Matthei) are also reportedly planning
to meet with Christian Democratic leaders to formulate a mutually
acceptable plan to counter Pinochet. Does Pinochet sincerely plan to run
in 1989 or is this simply a tactic intended to keep him from becoming a
lame duck? Is Pinochet's support in the military eroding and if so, how
far has this gone in the past few months? Can he count on sufficient
support--particularly from the all-important Army--to carry him through
to 1989? (CIA/ALA and DIA - 30 minutes)
Mexico
The opposition National Action Party (PAN) continues to mount
peaceful protest demonstrations against last month's state elections in
Chihuahua, thus far with little success. PAN supporters have carried on
hunger strikes, intermittently blocked traffic on the international
bridges between Juarez and El Paso and otherwise showed their displeasure
while Party leaders search for alternatives. These range from more
violent methods to refraining from all political participation. Both the
PRI and the PAN may be hardening their positions. While conflicts have
been held to a minimum thus far, what are the chances for violence when
the PRI "victors" are sworn in next month? What would be the impact on
gubernatorial elections in Sinaloa scheduled for September? If PAN's
waiting game does not show promise shortly, what is its next move?
(CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
Nicaragua
CIA/OGI, will give a briefing on an ongoing Soviet
STAT
irrigation
project in
Nicaragua.
3. Please have
your clearances passed and call
STAT
with your
attendance plans no later than Tuesday, 26 August
STAT
7196tW/I-fraq
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1
STAT