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Document Creation Date: 
December 23, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 15, 2013
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Publication Date: 
August 14, 1986
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PDF icon CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1.pdf96.51 KB
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1 National Intelligence Council STAT SECRET The Director of Central Intelligence Washington, D.C. 20505 MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution NIC 03775-86 14 August 1986 FROM: Robert D. Vickers, Jr. National Intelligence Officer for Latin America SUBJECT: Agenda for August 1986 Latin America Warning and Forecast Meeting 1. PLEASE NOTE: Due to a prior commitment, the August Warning Meeting will be held on Wednesday, 27 August 1986 at 1015 hours in Room 7D32, CIA Headquarters. Invited agencies and components should please keep their representatives to a necessary minimum because of space limitations. 2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics: Jamaica, Chile, Mexico and Nicaragua. Jamaica The 29 July local elections were a severe blow to Prime Minister Seaga and his Jamaica Labor Party (JLP). With 57% of the popular vote, Michael Manley, leader of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP), is now well positioned to win the next general election. Manley appears to be in no hurry to press for general elections and would probably prefer to sit back and watch the JLP continue to grapple with the country's problems. Nevertheless, the election must be held by 1988. How will the JLP attempt to improve its prospects? Will Seaga make a drastic change in economic policies? In foreign policy? Will Manley try to promote a moderate image by avoiding extremist attacks on Seaga's policies? Will this allow the left-wing of the PNP to regain lost influence? (State/INR - 30 minutes) Chile Civilian opponents of President Pinochet have received encouraging signals from several senior military figures in recent weeks. At least two members of the Junta, plus assorted other senior military officers, have expressed their opposition to Pinochet's seeking reelection in 1989. They believe he cannot win a fair election and that the armed 1 SECRET/ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1 cS TAT JIPAI Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1 SECRET STAT forces will not tolerate massive electoral fraud. Several prominent military figures (including General Matthei) are also reportedly planning to meet with Christian Democratic leaders to formulate a mutually acceptable plan to counter Pinochet. Does Pinochet sincerely plan to run in 1989 or is this simply a tactic intended to keep him from becoming a lame duck? Is Pinochet's support in the military eroding and if so, how far has this gone in the past few months? Can he count on sufficient support--particularly from the all-important Army--to carry him through to 1989? (CIA/ALA and DIA - 30 minutes) Mexico The opposition National Action Party (PAN) continues to mount peaceful protest demonstrations against last month's state elections in Chihuahua, thus far with little success. PAN supporters have carried on hunger strikes, intermittently blocked traffic on the international bridges between Juarez and El Paso and otherwise showed their displeasure while Party leaders search for alternatives. These range from more violent methods to refraining from all political participation. Both the PRI and the PAN may be hardening their positions. While conflicts have been held to a minimum thus far, what are the chances for violence when the PRI "victors" are sworn in next month? What would be the impact on gubernatorial elections in Sinaloa scheduled for September? If PAN's waiting game does not show promise shortly, what is its next move? (CIA/ALA - 30 minutes) Nicaragua CIA/OGI, will give a briefing on an ongoing Soviet STAT irrigation project in Nicaragua. 3. Please have your clearances passed and call STAT with your attendance plans no later than Tuesday, 26 August STAT 7196tW/I-fraq Robert D. Vickers, Jr. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/16: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020031-1 STAT