LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING FEBRUARY 1985
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP93B01478R000300030022-0
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
S
Document Page Count:
3
Document Creation Date:
December 27, 2016
Document Release Date:
August 1, 2013
Sequence Number:
22
Case Number:
Publication Date:
February 27, 1985
Content Type:
MEMO
File:
Attachment | Size |
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CIA-RDP93B01478R000300030022-0.pdf | 115.8 KB |
Body:
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/09/13: CIA-RDP93B01478R000300030022-0
. The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC 01030-85
National Intelligence Council 27 February 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
FROM:
Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT: Latin America Warning and Forecast Meeting
February 1985
1. On 20 February 1985, the Latin American Warning Meeting discussed
developments in Peru, Chile, Nicaragua and El Salvador.
Peru
2. DDI/OGI led a discussion of the two principal armed opposition
groups, the 1,500-2,000 member Sendero Luminoso (SL) formed in 1980 and
active throughout the central and southern highlands, and the 100-member
Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA), active in Lima and Cuzco.
Neither is likely to succeed in causing nationwide disruptions in the
forthcoming April Presidential elections. In recent months, the SL
appeared to be declining in strength, and its expansion into more
northerly areas may reflect its being 'squeezed' by Peruvian security
forces. But Peruvian security forces are hampered in their efforts by
the difficulties of operating at high altitudes, their deficiencies in
the Indian languages spoken there, and the lack of priority in acquiring
suitable counterinsurgency equipment--instead they want Mirages. At
best, as even the Peruvian military concede, they face a five- to
ten-year struggle against these armed opposition groups.
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Chile
4. DDI/ALA presented a strong argument that President Pinochet's
ouster of two moderates from the Cabinet--Interior Minister Jarpa and
Finance Minister Escobar--as well as his extension of the state of siege
underscore Pinochet's determination to adhere strictly to the
constitutional transition timetable, which specifies a Presidential
plebiscite in 1989 and congressional elections a year later. In the face
of Pinochet's actions the moderates appear to be in disarray, although
many of them hope to use the Uruguayan Presidential inauguration as a
forum for mobilizing Latin American opposition. Meanwhile, the armed
opposition, spearheaded by the Communist Party which reportedly has
doubled in membership in the last year, plans a new wave of violence in
March, including bombings and attacks on military personnel and bases.
Nicaragua
?
I-who are in Nicaragua supporting for the regime.
These figures have been coordinated at the working level in the Community.
Soviets-- 50-75, instead of the previous estimate of 40-50; some of
these are probably assisting with the newly-arrived
MI-24/25 helicopters.
East Germans-- 60-80, instead of the previous estimate of 60-70; most
are advising the Minister of Interior, the remainder
are helping maintain the large fleet of East German
trucks.
Libyans-- 25-50, most of whom are serving as advisers or technicians
for the Nicaraguan air force and airline. There was much
discussion of a recent report suggesting a considerably
higher figure, which would include military engineers.
PLO--15-30, most assigned to the air force or airline.
North Korea--15, most presumably assisting with the four patrol
craft delivered to the Nicaraguans.
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Vietnamese, Bulgarians, Czechs--
None firmly identified, although some analysts suspect
there may be at least a few Bulgarians.
Marxist guerrillas--
'Several hundred' persons, including Salvadorans, Costa
Ricans, Hondurans, Colombians, Chileans, Ecuadorans and
Brazilians, and possibly other nationalities. Many of
these have been used against the Contras, and their
presence yields at least strong moral support for the
regime.
El Salvador
8. DIA summarized reporting non-Salvadorans
identified in recent years as assisting the FMLN as combatants, medical
personnel, technicians (including armorers) and psyops specialists.
Nicaraguans--DIA estimates there are about 25 at a
Cubans--A few
Spanish--The PCE appears to have about 10 at any one time.
Dominicans--The PCD contingent is about 14, with new personnel
replacing those completing tours.
Americans--There has been
unit' near San Vicente.
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Others--One or two each from Venezuela, France, Mexico, Finland,
Brazil and North Korea.
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Robert D. Vickers, Jr.
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