OVERLAPPING PRODUCTION ON CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93T01142R000100240030-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 1, 2011
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: January 17, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP93T01142R000100240030-4
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/J Jam' /1 1,
17 January 1985
MEMO FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Overlapping Production on China
1. The fact that at least three NIOs want to produce papers on
modernization and reform in China indicates that there must be great consumer
interest in this subject. But it also suggests that some pre-planning about
how to tackle the subject is called for, both to cope with the overlap,
commonalities, and interrelationships inherent in the different papers and to
avoid wasting our analytical resources.
2. Undoubtedly papers on the individual areas of reform China is undertaking
need doing at some point. But wouldn't it make sense to try to do some kind of
framework paper first? We need a better understanding of how the attempts to
reform each sector (agricultural, military, political, economic, science and
technology) potentially will affect each other, what central problems they are
intended to address, and, most importantly, how the attempts to reform various
sectors are likely to impact on core aspects of the Chinese society:
-- how decisions are made (all reforms imply some degree of decentralization),
-- how people are motivated (all reforms imply a movement away from
ideology toward more pragmatic (e.g., material) motivations,
-- what kind of knowledge and skills are called for (acquisition and spread
of modern attitudes, and western science and technology),
-- and how social relations are organized (movement from egalitarianism
toward merit-based stratification).
Moreover, whether the individual reforms ultimately succeed or fail, merely
the attempt to modernize in so many areas simultaneously will probably have
major repercussions on China's foreign relations.
3. At a minimum, we believe that a useful first step would be a NICM on
the Implications of China's Effort to Modernize. It would focus on the
domestic and i!nternationa consequences that could result from China's effort
to introduce, virtually simultaneously, reforms in agriculture, science and
technology, the economy, and the military. The approach would be to provide a
broad framework of how the various issues are related--particularly how
developments in one area may affect prospects for reform in the others.
4. If it is decided not to do a broad framework paper first, the issue of
how to deal with overlap and the implications of reform in one area for reform
in others will still need attention.
DD/NIC/AG
S-F--F-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP93T01142R000100240030-4