LATE ITEMS FOR YOUR GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS TESTIMONY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 16, 2014
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: May 17, 1989
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
1 7 MAY 1989
OCA 89-1639
DCA FILE
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Director
FROM: E. Norbert Garrett
Director of Congressional Affairs
SUBJECT: Late Items for Your Governmental Affairs
Testimony
1. We met with Senate Governmental Affairs Committee staff
on Tuesday to work out last minute details for your testimony.
The staff reviewed the written statement and the questions you
are prepared to answer. They are pleased with both. The staff
told us that they will suggest that the Senators ask questions
in the order they appear in your book. There are no guarantees
on this but the staff appears to be willing to be as helpful as
possible.
2. The staff also asked whether your testimony had been
cleared by OMB. We said that the testimony had been provided
to the other witnesses but had not been cleared by OMB because
the content involved intelligence judgments and was not related
to budget, legislation or policy. Senator Glenn has had a
longstanding interest in whether witnesses have had their
testimony altered by OMB. In view pf the current flap over OMB
allegedly changing testimony about global warming, this could
well become a first question at the hearings. Meanwhile, OMB
staff is not happy that we have not cleared the testimony with
them.
3. Governmental Affairs staff told us that they expect
either C SPAN or CNN to cover the hearings. They expect
considerable press interest in the hearing but cannot be
specific at this time.
4. On the substantive side, a Pakistani newspaper has run
a story claiming that a breakthrough in uranium enrichment
technology has made it possible for Pakistan to conduct a
nuclear explosion at any time. DI analysts are studying the
story now--in part because of implications for Prime Minister
Bhutto's visit next month.?
5. Finally, I have attached three charts the Committee
will have on easels at the hearing. We will put them in your
book.
E. Norbert Gtrrett
\541tiql
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25X1
STAT
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SUBJECT: Late Items for Your Governmental Affairs
Testimony
OCA/Senate,
Distribution:
Orig - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - EXDIR/ER
I - SA/DCI
D/OCA
[i- OCA Record:
(1/ May 89) STAT
� Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
STAT
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
THE GLOBAL SPREAD OF BALLISTIC MISSILES -- 1989
MIDDLE EAST and AFRICA
Country
Missile
Producer
Status
Egypt
Scud-B
Badr-2000 (Condor II)
v
USSR
Egypt/Argentina
in service
under development
Iran
Scud-B
Unnamed
USSR/N. Korea
Iran/China
in service
uncertain
Iraq
Scud-B
Scud-B (Al Husayn)
Scud-B (Al Abbas)
SS-12
Condor II
USSR
Iraq-modified
Iraq-modified
USSR
Argentina/Egypt with Iraq
funding
in service
in service _
in service
in service
under development
Syria
Scud-B
USSR
in service
Libya
Scud-B
USSR
in service
Saudi Arabia
CSS-2
China
in service
Israel
Jericho
Jericho II
Israel
Israel
in service
possibly in service
South Yemen
Scud-B
USSR
in service
-Afghanistan
Scud-B
USSR
in service
ASIA
Country
Missile
Producer
Status
India
Prithvi
Agni
India
India
.....�E.m.
under development
under development
Pakistan
HATF-2
Pakistan w/China
under development
Taiwan
Sky Horse
Taiwan
under development
North Korea
Scud-B
N. Korea/Egypt
in service
South Korea
MIX (mod.)
S. Korea
in service
SOUTH AMERICA
Country
Missile
Producer
Status
Argentina
Condor 11
Egypt/Iraq/Argentina
under development
Brazil
MB/EE aeries
SS series �
Brazil
Brazil
under development
under development
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons
1989
' ' - ''''' � '
"'ISRAEL
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
F.F.119A
Declared nuclear weapon nations '
De facto nuclear weapon nations. These countries are thought able to deploy one
Of more nuclear weapons within months or to have already deployed them.
Courdeles to monitor. These countries have taken steps since 1980 to develop
nuclear weapon capabilities or to acquire nuclear weapons �or appear strongly
motivated to do SO.
Countries of pest concern. These countries took steps to develop nuclear weapon
capabilities during the 1970's, but have terminated these activities.
Abstaining countries. These countries have the technological base, but not the
Intent, to develop nuclear weapons. A number have Installations under international
Inspection that can produce nuclear weapon material.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
URYA
� Marry years away from pseeibly building nuclear weapons
Ind%swipe*.
� Attempted to purchase atomic bomb In early 1970's. 1981.
� Party NPT.
ISRAEL
� Thought to have obtained first nuclear weapons in late 1060's.
� Probably has 50-100 undeclared A-bombs.
� Since 1982 allegedly built "boosted" weapons that rely on
H-bomb principle.
� Thought to have deployed short-range nuclear-capable
missiles In early 1980's; testing missile reportedly able to
reach USSR.
� Not party to NPT.
MAO
� Probably 10 years sway from building Indigenous nweapons;
may be building uranium enrichment plant.
� Thought to have been developing nuckter weapons capability
In 1970, until Israel destroyed Nina; reactor in 1981.
� Party to NPT.
IRAN
� Many years away from possibly building nuclear weapons
Indigenously.
� Some nuclear Installations and weapons research inherited
from Shah; reactivating n-research program.
� Party to NPT
BRAZIL
� Negotiating nuclear restraints sitth Argentina.
� Chelan gcnemment opposed tomcat, arming, but military
would bop option.
� Building tacitilles necessary tor nuclear weapons capability
as pert ot nuclear energy and research program, but not
under international Inspection.
� Not party to NPT.
ARGENTINA
� Negotiating nudew restraints with Brazil.
� Carelan government opposed to nuclear arming.
� Building facilities necessary foe nuclear weapons capability
es pert daycare, energy prow." but not under international
Inspection.
� Not pasty to NPT
SOUTH AFRICA
� Able to build nuclear weapons since 1980-81.
� Possible undeclared arsenal 01 10 to 20 weapons.
� Not party to NPT.
PAKISTAN
� Apparently obtained material for lirst atomic weapon In 19811
� Probably has essentials for 5-10 undeclared A-bombs.
� Attempting to develop "boosted" n-weapons.
� Tested nuclear-capable short-range missile In 1989. �
� Not party to NPT.
NORTH KOREA
� Has built large research reactor and may
have built plutonium plant that could
soon allow A-bomb production.
� Party to NPT (1985). but above plants not
under IAEA inspection since agreement
with IAEA not yet signed.
TAIWAN
� Has sizeabta nuclear power program, but lacks
facilities to produce material tor n-weapons.
� Built secret lab to extract plutonium In 1987,
but dismantled until under US pressure before
plutonium obtained; (made similar attempt In
mid-1970s, also thwarted by US).
� Party to NPT.
INDIA
� Tested nuclear device in 1974. .
� Has essontials for 20-50 A-bombs and may be building
undeclared nuclear arsenal.
� Has greatly expanded nuclear weapons production capability
In recent years. reportedly designing H-bomb.
� Test-fired nuclear-capable short-range missile in 1988; IRBM
test planned for 1989.
� Not party to NPT.
. � .� ......... ..�. ....... .. � .
. � ����
NPT�The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Requires all nuclear Installations In a signatory country to be placed under
International Atomic Energy Agency Inspection.
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STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7