LATE ITEMS FOR YOUR GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS TESTIMONY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
K
Document Page Count: 
6
Document Creation Date: 
December 27, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 16, 2014
Sequence Number: 
11
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 17, 1989
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7.pdf710.65 KB
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 1 7 MAY 1989 OCA 89-1639 DCA FILE MEMORANDUM FOR: The Director FROM: E. Norbert Garrett Director of Congressional Affairs SUBJECT: Late Items for Your Governmental Affairs Testimony 1. We met with Senate Governmental Affairs Committee staff on Tuesday to work out last minute details for your testimony. The staff reviewed the written statement and the questions you are prepared to answer. They are pleased with both. The staff told us that they will suggest that the Senators ask questions in the order they appear in your book. There are no guarantees on this but the staff appears to be willing to be as helpful as possible. 2. The staff also asked whether your testimony had been cleared by OMB. We said that the testimony had been provided to the other witnesses but had not been cleared by OMB because the content involved intelligence judgments and was not related to budget, legislation or policy. Senator Glenn has had a longstanding interest in whether witnesses have had their testimony altered by OMB. In view pf the current flap over OMB allegedly changing testimony about global warming, this could well become a first question at the hearings. Meanwhile, OMB staff is not happy that we have not cleared the testimony with them. 3. Governmental Affairs staff told us that they expect either C SPAN or CNN to cover the hearings. They expect considerable press interest in the hearing but cannot be specific at this time. 4. On the substantive side, a Pakistani newspaper has run a story claiming that a breakthrough in uranium enrichment technology has made it possible for Pakistan to conduct a nuclear explosion at any time. DI analysts are studying the story now--in part because of implications for Prime Minister Bhutto's visit next month.? 5. Finally, I have attached three charts the Committee will have on easels at the hearing. We will put them in your book. E. Norbert Gtrrett \541tiql Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 25X1 STAT Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 � SUBJECT: Late Items for Your Governmental Affairs Testimony OCA/Senate, Distribution: Orig - DCI 1 - DDCI 1 - EXDIR/ER I - SA/DCI D/OCA [i- OCA Record: (1/ May 89) STAT � Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 STAT STAT Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 THE GLOBAL SPREAD OF BALLISTIC MISSILES -- 1989 MIDDLE EAST and AFRICA Country Missile Producer Status Egypt Scud-B Badr-2000 (Condor II) v USSR Egypt/Argentina in service under development Iran Scud-B Unnamed USSR/N. Korea Iran/China in service uncertain Iraq Scud-B Scud-B (Al Husayn) Scud-B (Al Abbas) SS-12 Condor II USSR Iraq-modified Iraq-modified USSR Argentina/Egypt with Iraq funding in service in service _ in service in service under development Syria Scud-B USSR in service Libya Scud-B USSR in service Saudi Arabia CSS-2 China in service Israel Jericho Jericho II Israel Israel in service possibly in service South Yemen Scud-B USSR in service -Afghanistan Scud-B USSR in service ASIA Country Missile Producer Status India Prithvi Agni India India .....�E.m. under development under development Pakistan HATF-2 Pakistan w/China under development Taiwan Sky Horse Taiwan under development North Korea Scud-B N. Korea/Egypt in service South Korea MIX (mod.) S. Korea in service SOUTH AMERICA Country Missile Producer Status Argentina Condor 11 Egypt/Iraq/Argentina under development Brazil MB/EE aeries SS series � Brazil Brazil under development under development Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 The Spread of Nuclear Weapons 1989 ' ' - ''''' � ' "'ISRAEL Carnegie Endowment for International Peace F.F.119A Declared nuclear weapon nations ' De facto nuclear weapon nations. These countries are thought able to deploy one Of more nuclear weapons within months or to have already deployed them. Courdeles to monitor. These countries have taken steps since 1980 to develop nuclear weapon capabilities or to acquire nuclear weapons �or appear strongly motivated to do SO. Countries of pest concern. These countries took steps to develop nuclear weapon capabilities during the 1970's, but have terminated these activities. Abstaining countries. These countries have the technological base, but not the Intent, to develop nuclear weapons. A number have Installations under international Inspection that can produce nuclear weapon material. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16 CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 URYA � Marry years away from pseeibly building nuclear weapons Ind%swipe*. � Attempted to purchase atomic bomb In early 1970's. 1981. � Party NPT. ISRAEL � Thought to have obtained first nuclear weapons in late 1060's. � Probably has 50-100 undeclared A-bombs. � Since 1982 allegedly built "boosted" weapons that rely on H-bomb principle. � Thought to have deployed short-range nuclear-capable missiles In early 1980's; testing missile reportedly able to reach USSR. � Not party to NPT. MAO � Probably 10 years sway from building Indigenous nweapons; may be building uranium enrichment plant. � Thought to have been developing nuckter weapons capability In 1970, until Israel destroyed Nina; reactor in 1981. � Party to NPT. IRAN � Many years away from possibly building nuclear weapons Indigenously. � Some nuclear Installations and weapons research inherited from Shah; reactivating n-research program. � Party to NPT BRAZIL � Negotiating nuclear restraints sitth Argentina. � Chelan gcnemment opposed tomcat, arming, but military would bop option. � Building tacitilles necessary tor nuclear weapons capability as pert ot nuclear energy and research program, but not under international Inspection. � Not party to NPT. ARGENTINA � Negotiating nudew restraints with Brazil. � Carelan government opposed to nuclear arming. � Building facilities necessary foe nuclear weapons capability es pert daycare, energy prow." but not under international Inspection. � Not pasty to NPT SOUTH AFRICA � Able to build nuclear weapons since 1980-81. � Possible undeclared arsenal 01 10 to 20 weapons. � Not party to NPT. PAKISTAN � Apparently obtained material for lirst atomic weapon In 19811 � Probably has essentials for 5-10 undeclared A-bombs. � Attempting to develop "boosted" n-weapons. � Tested nuclear-capable short-range missile In 1989. � � Not party to NPT. NORTH KOREA � Has built large research reactor and may have built plutonium plant that could soon allow A-bomb production. � Party to NPT (1985). but above plants not under IAEA inspection since agreement with IAEA not yet signed. TAIWAN � Has sizeabta nuclear power program, but lacks facilities to produce material tor n-weapons. � Built secret lab to extract plutonium In 1987, but dismantled until under US pressure before plutonium obtained; (made similar attempt In mid-1970s, also thwarted by US). � Party to NPT. INDIA � Tested nuclear device in 1974. . � Has essontials for 20-50 A-bombs and may be building undeclared nuclear arsenal. � Has greatly expanded nuclear weapons production capability In recent years. reportedly designing H-bomb. � Test-fired nuclear-capable short-range missile in 1988; IRBM test planned for 1989. � Not party to NPT. . � .� ......... ..�. ....... .. � . . � ���� NPT�The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Requires all nuclear Installations In a signatory country to be placed under International Atomic Energy Agency Inspection. 1)p:classified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 STAT Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/16: CIA-RDP94M00837R000300170011-7