YOUR ESTIMATE DRAFT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP94T00766R000200120009-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2014
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: June 7, 1989
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/01 : CIA-RDP94T00766R000200120009-8
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Your Estimate draft
7 June 1989
Just as I had expected, this is a very good first draft. I have
made a number of marginal comments, most of which might not be too
helpful unless we go over them together.
Just a few larger suggestions to consider:
-- I don't think we need to cover the issue of Gorbachev's
underlying goals, etc at the beginning of the piece in this depth.
I would refocus the beginning more on "where he is at this point
in the effort."
-- Believe the the forces pushing this reform process forward
don't stand out enough, compared to the obstacles. In particular,
the new situation created by the involvement of the broader
publciic in political life.
-- Believe you also need to present a more complex picture of
attitudes in the leadership and elite--sources of support for G.
as well as opposition.
-- Rather than focusing on just what happens if Gorbachev is
replaced--or the issue of his survivability--believe it would help
to address the issue of "how durable is this process?" Of course,
whether Gorbachev goes or stays is part of this. How durable do
we think the process is and for what reasons. We did a little on
this in NIE 11-4 (eg, adding some historical perspective on this
reform effort) when it became clear that this was the big issue
with Gates, et all. By the way Kerr apparently likes that way of
putting the question. We could talk about what this might mean in
practical terms.
-- My guess is that some of these issues might be taken care
of, and some potential skeptics out there taken care of, if a
substantial chunk of the ending portion of the paper were devoted
TON=1"nt`Pi?iki,-
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/01 : CIA-RDP94T00766R000200120009-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/01 : CIA-RDP94T00766R000200120009-8
CONFIDENTIAL
to alternative futures for the next four years. A thorough
discussion of each future and the factors that would tend to favor
that future. We could talk about this too.
Of course, Blackwell is the ultimate arbiter of what you need to
do at this point. I'm just trying to be helpful. I appreciate
the first-rate effort you put into this.
CONFIDENTIAL
? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/01 : CIA-RDP94T00766R000200120009-8
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