AFGHANISTAN: THE WAR IN PERSPECTIVE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP94T00885R000100220001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2014
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 1, 1989
• Content Type: SNIE

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-ADM4-N?I-NTERITAL?USE-M?LY
WHITE KEY JUDGMENTS
SPECIAL WHITE KEY JUDGMENTS
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Lill Gt. WI WI 16.G11 LI 421 III LGIIIUGI IUG %a/1U kia IL
Afghanistan: The War
in Perspective
Special National Intelligence Estimate
Key Judgments
These Key Judgments represent the views
of the Director of Central Intelligence
with the advice and assistance of the
US Intelligence Community.
-Stscret-.
SNIE 37-89W
November 1989
Copy 53
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The following intelligence organizations participated
in the preparation of these Key Judgments:
The Central Intelligence Agency
The Defense Intelligence Agency
The National Security Agency
Bureau of Intelligence and Research,
Department of State
also participating:
The Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence,
Department of the Army
The Director of Naval Intelligence,
Department of the Navy
The Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence,
Department of the Air Force
The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurs,
except as noted in the text.
The full text of this Estimate is being published
separately with regular distribution.
Warning Notice
National Security
Information
Intelligence Sources
or Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
Unauthorized Disclosure
Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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2bA1
Key Judgments
The Kabul regime is weak, unpopular, and factionalized, but it will
probably remain in power over the next 12 months. The war will remain at
a near impasse. The regime will continue to resist Mujahedin pressure so
long as the Soviet Union remains willing and able to continue its massive
military supply program and the regime's internal problems remain
manageable:
? The Mujahedin hold the military initiative to the extent that they move
unhindered by the regime in most of the countryside and they choose
when and where to fight. The resistance, however, will be unable to
prevent the supply of Soviet materiel to regime forces. The resistance will
remain a guerrilla force and will find it difficult to seize major regime
garrisons.
? This conflict is best understood as an insurgency. Political/military
elements, such as regime fragility, Mujahedin disunity, and local tribal
factors will be at least as important to the final outcome as strictly
military considerations.
? Despite extensive popular support, the highly factionalized resistance is
unlikely to form a political entity capable of uniting the Mujahedin.
? The Afghan Interim Government and most major commanders will
refuse to negotiate directly with Kabul, barring the departure of
Najibullah and top regime officials, but we cannot rule out the possibility
of indirect talks.
Pakistan will continue to support the resistance, whether Benazir Bhutto or
her political opposition is in power. 25X1
The Soviets will continue to search for a political settlement while
providing massive support to Kabul over the next year. Soviet moves could
include a dramatic new initiative, especially if Gorbachev saw it as a way
to remove the Afghan issue from the US-Soviet agenda before the summit
next year. 25X1
One way to break the impasse would be to alter the pattern of foreign
support:
? A unilateral US cutoff of support to the resistance would alter the
military balance in favor of the regime and give it the upper hand in dic-
tating the terms of political arrangements.
1
Secret
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65
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? A rgana
Bukhara
Chardzhott
Karshi
-
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. Jeyreto
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Towragho di
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PAK
Khost
STAN
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Ken di '
Dolbandin
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Afghanistan
International boundary
?? Province boundary
* National capital
cp Province capital
Railroad
Road
Sukkur
190 290 Kilometers
100 260 Miles
Bounthry repre?nietton Is
Secret
ft
2
70
Vt
75
800053 (A04007) 5-88
25X1
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? A unilateral Soviet cutoff of support to the regime would be devastating
to Kabul's prospects.
? Mutual cuts by the United States and Soviet Union (negative symmetry)
would be unpopular with the resistance but ultimately more damaging to
the regime.
? Even with aid cuts, conflict would srobably continue indefinitely, though
at a lower level of intensity.
To reduce its vulnerability to determined efforts by the resistance to bring
it down, the regime is likely to continue to seek separate deals with local
resistance commanders.
3
Secret
25X1
25X1
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25X1
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