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Document Creation Date: 
November 4, 2016
Document Release Date: 
March 23, 2000
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Publication Date: 
June 12, 1975
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PDF icon CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150005-1.pdf277.6 KB
Approved ForRelease2000/0.811.0 ? CIA-RIPP96-00787R000200150005-1 L'UN I IDLN IAL ORD 224D-75 12 June 1975 MEMORANDUM FOR: OTS/CB SG1 I ATTENTION: SUBJECT: Evidence for Non-Randomness of "Pour-State Electronic Random Stimulus Generator" REFERENCE: OTS/CB Memorandum 075-60 As requested in the last paragraph of the referenced memorandum, we have investigated the data provided to establish evidence for randomness. The basis for suggesting non-randomness Is as follows: Table 1 of the Reference provides data concerning fre- quencies of: A. Initial States B. State Transitions Since the experiment consisted of requiring the subjects to indicate the next-to-be presented state, it would seem most important to establish that all possible transitions occur with equal probability. To test for possible non-equality of transitions, we extracted the observed frequencies of non- identity transitions to form the following table: Yellow Green Blue Red 764 765 790 G 777 773 863 B 776 796 773 R 787 852 803 .19 Approved For Rele A% IlAitRig0042801113570005-1 Approved For Release 209QMON:,p1A-RDP96-00787R000200150005-1 LAWil iiiL ORD 2240-75 This table can be restructured as a tw by-six table asfollows: YIG Y/B Y/R GIB Forward 764 765 790 773 863 773 Backward 777 776 787 796 852 803 The table thus restructured brings together all possible non-identity transitions viewed as state-pairs. For instance, Col. I shows that there were 764 transitions from the yellow state to the green state and there were 777 transitions from the green state to the yellow state. Under the hypothesis that all state transitions are equally probable and equally affected by thence the observed frequency with which forward transitions *CC= Should be unrelated to that with which backward transitions occur in the same pair. This condition is not met. There is a very strong relationship between the observed forward and back- ward transition frequencies. The coefficient of correlation between frequencies for these two directions, computed across all six possible non-identity transitions is .93, (p< .01) (see attached graph). This finding shows that there were, in fact, systematic pair-wise biases associated with the electronic processes by which the transitions were selected. The finding that the forward and backward transitions are closely associated with respect to joint probability of occurrence suggests that they can be considered as having been drawn from the same population. To test this, we computed the forward and backward mean and the Standard Deviation (SD) of the observed frequencies. They are: Forward 788 37.9 Backward 798 28.25 The standard error of the difference between these two means is 15.39 while the difference between them is only ten; clearly 2 Approved For Release 2000/0/14-; piA-RRIDq6-00787R000200150005-1 tUNI JLI\i L Approved For Release ZeeitiffeigOr96-00787R000200150005-1 ORD 2240-75 these data table: Observed may be merged. Y/G Y/B Merging them provides the C ng Bf Total Frequency 1541 1541 1577 i69 1715 15769519 Expected Frequency Under Null Hypothesis 1586.5 1586.5 1586.5 1586.5 1586.5 951 Chi Square 1.305 .057 93 10.408 .069 Total Chi Square 0. 13.337 4f5 p.UZ In the above table it can be seen that the large excess of ob ?Dyed transitions involving the red-green pair is significant at the .02 level. Inspection of the observed frequencies reveals that there are almost ten percent more transitions involving the red-green pair than the average of the other five possible non- identity transitions. These results suggest that adopting (for whatever conscious or unconscious reason) a strategy of "When green, press red, when red, press green and, otherwise use the 'pass' button as much as possible" will increase one's hit score. Using an instrument with the above-described characteristics and strategies such as this is certain to produce "statistically significant" results, given enough trials and the assumption of random transition probabilities. Other biases also exist which could form the bases of other enhancing strategies but the above discussion would seer adequate to establish the existence of non-randomness which we have suggested. The report available to us contains data only upon one test of one instrument. it must, therefore, be assumed that the other instruments demonstrated non-random characteristics of a similar nature. Further, the report does not reveal which subject used 3 Approved For Release 2009/08/ ? QA-RHDP96-00787R000200150005-1 CON LN AL Approved For Release 200 -00787R000200150005-1 ORi 2240-75 which instrument so we are unable to ascertain whether or not subject number 2's results could be due to the effects discussed aboye1 but the magnitude of the effect is adequate to explain the results if one assumes the adoption of a selection strategy which "capitalizes" upon the non-random characteristics which are demonstrably present Attachment Distribution: Original & 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - LSR/ORD/DD/S&T? SG1I SG1I Addressee, w/att LSR File, Watt LSR Chrono, Watt ORD Chrono, Watt :may:3191 I!!!!!!!!!!!" 4 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787R000200150005-1