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November 4, 2016
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April 5, 2000
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PDF icon CIA-RDP96-00788R000100340001-4.pdf206.32 KB
DATA FROM PSYCHIC SOURCES (S) 1. (S) DIA continues to receive information from psychic sources regarding BG Dozier. Some of these reports are from people who have demonstrated statistical significance in controlled parapsychological laboratory experiments; other reports are from people previously unknown to the parapsychological research community. It is difficult to interpret such data, even from tested psychics, since laboratory investigations usually do not simulate an operational problem such as locating missing people. It is even more difficult to assess data from an unsolicited unevaluated source where no laboratory data or operational track record exists. 2. (S) Nevertheless, the potential of such data, especially when information from conventional sources is not available, should be considered for possible leads or clues. This judgement is based on review of laboratory results with specific individuals who have demonstrated consistent statistical significance, and on reports of psychic data providing meaningful clues in police work. Some of these accounts appear to be credible and are reasonably well documented. Consequently, such data cannot be dismissed out-of- hand. In the case of a search problem, such data may have the potential of narrowing down search possibilities and possibly providing additional ideas for the investigation. 3. (S) while an initial assessment of the reliability or credibility of the person providing the data may be possible, based on previous laboratory testing and/or operational track record, there still remains the major problem of assessing or interpreting the raw data. Laboratory experiments in free-response type experiments using pictorial targets (e.g., describing concealed drawings, unknown geographic locations,) indicate that the descriptive elements, such as shape or form, are generally of higher reliability than judgments or analysis (labels) given by the psychic to what is being perceived. For example, an aircraft fuselage may be identified as a "submarine", or a natural cave as an "underground facility" of some sort. It also seems that scale judgements (distances, height of mountains,) are of low reliability. The data often contain gaps and not all the elements of the intended target are perceived. For example, only one or two buildings may be described in a 3-building complex, or only one tower may be perceived when several are in the area. There are also erroneous additions, possibly from memory associations to a similar place or from a tendency to fill-in via imagination. For example, an airport might be added to a train station target, since rail lines may suggest "long runways" or "parking aprons". 4. (S) Another major source of error in this type of data is with verbal responses. Laboratory results to date suggest very low reliability in direct correlation between concealed words and psychic impressions of them. In some cases, possibly depending on the individuals background, training, and personal preferences, Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R000100340001-4 Approved For Release 20 R000100340001-4 some target words are more likely to be perceived then others. In most cases (with proven psychics) there may only be a partial correspondence between target words and impressions. for example, the first few letter may correlate, or the perceived word may be a "sound alike". Sometimes the similarity is only symbolic or very indirect. This seems to be even more of a problem if the target words are in a language foreign to the psychic. 5. (S) Therefore, a degree of finesse must be exercised in attempting to apply data from a psychic source. Some aspects may be literal and direct, other may be incomplete, mislabeled, or totally incorrect. Only repeated work with a proven psychic source can help evaluate the individuals various biases and types of error, and to identify the individuals strengths and weaknesses. Usually, the psychic person is likely to make most errors in analytical judgements regarding his or her own perceptions; whereas people accustomed to work in pattern recognition type tasks appear to be better suited to interpret such data. 6. (S) In order to help assess reliability of psychic data, specific feedback is required on initial data inputs. Therefore it is important to know what aspects of a perception were reasonably correct, only partially correct, or totally incorrect. With this information, efforts of the source might be re-directed along more fruitful lines of query, and the data accumulated can be reevaluated, perhaps with additional (and possibly more reliable) interpretations. The importance of specific feedback on initial inputs cannot be overemphasized. In addition, details such as the thoroughness of the search and the actual area covered are also important. It may be the correct area was actually searched, perhaps not at the right time (person moved) or not thoroughly enough. It may be the search concentrated in one specific area, and was not expanded to cover other likely possibilities in the same general vicinity. 7. (S) In addition, data from several independent psychic sources may prove to have common elements that form into an overall pattern. Should this be observed,, new interpretations of previously obtained data, regardless of thoroughness of feedback, may become possible. This "data integration" approach would examine new possibilities that fit the majority of the data and maybe help narrow down or identify new search options. Additionally, data analysts might be able to list options in a most-to-least likely order. This approach is believed to be a fruitful one for search cases where the target area has much terrain redundancy, is large, and where the target may be moved frequently. 8. (S) Therefore, an integrated assessment step should be taken with the possibility that higher confidence can be given to the various search possibilities. This would not exclude previously identified areas, if they were not searched thoroughly enough, or if a move into this area may have subsequently occurred. In addition to these assessments, specific new raw data could also be Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R000100340001-4 Approved For Releas 0340001-4 supplied for information to field users, since some aspects of the data might be of more significance to people on the scene than analyst far-removed. 9. (S) Consequently, it is anticipated that, such an integrated approach in use and interpretations of data from psychic sources might provide more reliable inputs for field use. Specific feedback and some search details would continue to be required, however, for continuing evaluation. An interactive process between psychic sources, data analysts, and field users would lead to better utility of such data, especially in the event no direct data regarding location of the subject of search becomes available. 1446 1 P 7S5 lwoe_ Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R000100340001-4