Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
November 4, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 17, 2000
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
November 10, 1987
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP96-00789R000200230003-2.pdf218.96 KB
Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96,0' COMMENTARY 0003-2 DREW MIDDLETON Gulf War Entering Critical, Perhaps Final, Phase for All CPYRGHT -. ~,,,y ,u r ~vv y iaCSS inciuae the destruction of arms and,,,, 2 d n 7, , ~ supplies. Their leadas?udR ov.mayhaveserveto avi;PersianGulfonN drive awayan intruding boat, but it also di- who helped overthrow the shah, knows that vertsattention from some ofthemore sig the Iranian forces are running short of nificantweapons and forces of the Iran-Iraq IL r, modern weapons , andina recent stateme>it war- a conflict in which the U it n e destr ~n ?u?cu u,441,411U1 1{IUW Qfl 1 dales,wnetng,rornotWashingtonwisheato 46n a3 \Y r ar acknowlaglow it ....:_---,-- . i egnipmentwotth millions of dollars ?w v V afl r Iran and its neighbors indicate that the inter- nal giving, situation is vulnerable to this sort of assistaMetotheoilexports ofRuwait a state thatf omthestartoftheGulfwarhas resistance aetiyity.Although theKhomeini cumstance& e AGneoflrao b5tsk'sleadintrcnnnn,+o,~ Y me'spolicehaveruthlesslyquelled be m no& free tocontinu speaaorWidespread disaffection among off eitsfair1vsuecessfulair-sea ?FF two main groups. 39ainStInn's ell industry, which The first istheurbanmiddleclass. De- suDnOrtcTahrnn}~ ,fl. -..a;,.~ ~ .~~ ? s[anaing Its members no longer enjoy iSlik ~ranianr aliationwhich, ifitcomes, their oldstandard ofliving- notwith jamb at iSlike~ptobedelivererlhvt`h~~o~nemb +i erared women ofthe shah's era are the most I'Ifwhich was eQSS11r)6466~rgr:titdil a highly sue outspoken critics ofthe present regime. 4hu o r ,- ra -not a normal, rational one. Rather it eo n is soldiers and ofiPcials in 94 fo forces. Theraiders, usually striking at night, Ift -etaariadon` lkw nrm at actor-1At proneto'goforbroke' anduseth roV 1 e : CI 9f~08 023000 8+~MO&Weareenteringacri' ,per- u soul s~iTim ei final nhaaat>f tvi .a,v om t SovietSAM,q eirheadquartersinBagh '- cussed "fnaloffensive,"could bringd surfaemprn mil ,r v. dadtohavekilledorwounded Iranian thegovernment ~ It asweknownow,thegovernmetinT h r o g YatollahRuhollanicnoroeinis thatthe MiJahedeen presenting an financia forthe en iqg vert themissile once detected. regime Late last month the gvernmentsecu crewel riousmili w' parents,whoselossofsons Will the Silkworm be used? ngb tary problemforthe to till farms or run shops would.bethe A normal ritycoun iimettodiscussforth first time Iranian,almy equivalent in our society to a loss of Social b ernmentfaced with the naval and air the expanding operations of what it terms strengthoftheUnited States would contin? "terrorists".onit western frontier. ~ 711eelementsoftheproblemarefamil Security or an ofthatpension. onlyagainstKu- iar. The best ofIran's regular troops are else- ploitationfthatsituationbyt6eMu waiti targets; defense from that ale attackers are the Mujahedeen where- jahedeen or even a decisive Iraqi victory, if ueto employtheSilkworm q, orPeople s Warriors, who have new offensvein the north trainaide byth M and when Tehran launches its much die country's. FFawk missiles and old claimed fr b m a v erse course of events in the Per- that, although the figures of Iranian casual- the parents are proud of their sons' martr- iabaatttlth Sian Gulf isnottheonly troublesome situa- ties may be exaggerated, the fact remains dom. Butthegovernmentbasdon i is1,antfdentthatithasthetoolstod tionfad th' n A g Navgaclmowle'dges that the Silkwor intelligeiee agencies in Tehran confirm The official nvernment s't' . #16-+ a The d