SPECIAL REPORT - SUN STREAK EVALUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00789R000700260001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 2, 1989
• Content Type: REPORT

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SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
SPECIAL REPORT
SUN STREAK EVALUATION
WARNING NOTICEN THIS MATERIAL IS
RESTRICTED TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED
ACCESS TO SUN STREAK LEVEL
WOMMOW/NOFORN
SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM
2 NOVEMBER 1989
CLASSIFIED BYg DIA/ST
DECLASSIFY BY: OADR
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PURPOSE
I BACKGROUND
II EVALUATION
UNCLASSIFIED
1. Data Base
2. Evaluation Techniques
3. Evaluation Results
III FINDINGS
APPENDIX
I. PROjECT RECORD DETAILS
2
II. DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYSTS/DATA REVIEWERS
UNCLASSIFIED
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BACKGROUND
II EVALUATION
III FINDINGS
12
APP1.NDIX
I. HOW' CI kl.C:OkD Drrniu;
H. DI IAILID INSIkUCIIUNS 10 ANALYSIS/DAIA RLVILWI-kS
UNCLASSIFIED
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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE
1.
Number of Projects as a Function
of
type
FIGURE
2.
Data Categories
FIGURE
3.
Evaluation Scales
FIGURE
4.
Summary Data Evaluation Sheet.
Example
FIGURE
5.
Overall Data Correlations
FIGURE
6.
Overall Averages for all Project
Types
FIGURE
7.
Expected Results +or Approximately
/0% Data
Accuracy Selected Personnel
UNCLASSIFIED
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SUN STREAK EVALUATION
PURPOSE,J (S/NF/SS 2) Purpose o+ this report is to provide an
evaluation o+ the SUN STREAK operational projects conducted
since 1986.
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SECRET
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BACKGROUND (U)
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(S/SF/SS 2) SUN STREAK is an in ..... house DIA project for
developing an operational psychoenergetics (i.e., remote viewing). - "j4. PZ
capability for the Intelligence Community. Tweive(1g6-1:9 billets, W
0'1
were authorized for DTA in 1986 for this activity. --Personnel
from the ARMY INSCOM CENTER LANE Project who had been examinihg
similar phenomenon were transferred to DIA to form the SUN STREAK
core group. DIA had earlier (1905) received operational control
from HO DA for this 6-persaa. rmy unit.
F/SS-2) In 1985, the DIA SUN STREAK Program Manager
(PM).7prepared an Action Plan thatg (1) detailed the steps
neCessary to transition the CENTER LANE unit to DIA!; (2)
identified SUN STREAK staffing and support nosdcii and (3) set
forth key programmatic requirements for the SUN STREAK activity.
The Action Plan anticipated that the time required +or achieving
a prototype operational capability would be approximately 3
years..
(S/NF/SS 2) Key aspects of this Action Plan, along with
additional procedural information, were sent to camgresisional
committees in 1986. The IC staff was also briefed at this time
on the Action Plan and on anticipated SUN STREAK operational
development and data evaluation procedures.
(S/NF/SS 2) Programmatic and operational requirements
identified in the Action Plan were to (1) gaiT pecial Akccess )
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V.)rogram (SAP) status (accornplished in March 1981: 1 .1f..2)gaIn"huffirawl.
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us_approval ( grante d in Mar 1
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wEim?sighy-and a ask Cportti.nating eamnittee .(accomp.1ifli6d
,laugh -"hot curren.:ly actiat6-dIi---(4).-estab..1-sh tight project
controls along with an automated dat_pase management and records ---,
system (accomplished)g and (5) to estabjish an R/D link for
supporting operational capability development (accomplished via
HQ SGRD funding and a DARPA MIPR).
c.4
(S/NF/SS-2) The R/D link, via SRI int.ernational, has
yielded improved data evaluation procedures, has identified
potential personnel selection techniques, and has contributed to
training/development methods that are currently in project use.
The activity at SRI.has received and continues to receive
extensive review by a 9-member peer review panel to insure that
scientific rigor is maintained in all their activities.
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FIGURE 1.
FIGURE 2. Data Categories
FIGURE 3. evaluation ales
EALtY
FIGURE 4. summary ata evaluation ZERW---Example
FIGURE 5. Overall data correlations
FIGURE 6. Overall averages for all project types
FIGURE 7. Expected results for approximately 70% data
accuracy---selected personnel
LIST OF FIGURES
Number of )projects as a function of type Cc115
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'lest tor
SUN STREAK EVALUATION
PURPOSE: (S/NF/SS-2) Purpose of this report is to provide an
evaluation of the SUN STREAK operational projects conducted
since 1986.
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2. EVALUATION TECHNIQUES (U)
(6/NF/SS 2) Techniques used for evaluating the SUN STREY-W?4
operational -and simulated operational data lase depend on
nature of the task and type of project. T projects are the
most difficult to evaluate. This difficulty arises from the
general complexity existing at most S/T target sites, from
possible ambiguouS aspects of known ground truth about the- target
site, from the nature of the information desired, and in a few
cases, possibly from the remote viewing (RV) targeting method
employed. It is easier to evaluate data on S/T targets if only a
siF( le issue, such as presence or absence (of a particular
system, for cimarvle0 is desired, then it is to evaluate how well
a viewers' detailed but possibly fragmentary description
correlates with aspects of a complex .site. In this case a
considerable amount of subjectivity can be involved in evaluating
the degree of data /target correlation.
(S/NF/SS 2) To assist in reducing overall subjectivity of
evaluating complex S/T targets, the viewers' data is examined and
compared to ground truth with several data categories in mind.
These categories are shown in Figure and include geographic
descriptions, large and small scale objects, large and small
scale functions, personality data, and predictive data. Not all
these categories may be relevant to a specific project, and in
some cases may even be part of the RV targeting procedure used
(e.g., when a photo .of target building is used as an RV targeting
reference for accessing its unknown contents).
(S/NF/SS-':') After identifying the appropriate data
category, the next step is to examine the viewers' raw (or
summarized) data for comparison to known or estimated ground
truth and to make a best judgement on what approximate degree of
data correlation. actually exists. Figure 3 defines the scale
ratings used along with their approximate degree o+ data
correlation. (Appendix II contains detailed instructions for
analyst consideration when reviewing the data).
(S/NF/SS 2) Final evaluations and summaries are prepared by
the Program Manager and/or his project representative (who is not
v.( part of S(MN- STRVAK staff) in conjunction with the responsible
system cw_Ara Analyst or Intelligence Community point-o+
AenA?
-----Etact. Latest intelligence data and reports on that target
site are also reviewed during this process. In some cases, area
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014111010***.
Mditi.onal data analysis is, of course, performed to determine.
how close to ground truth the data actually was. This may be of
value in understanding how to conduct future projects of this
nature.
3. EVALUATION RESULTS (U)
(S/NF/SS 3) Overall data correlations for all SUN STREAK
operational and operational simulation projects perforMed since c
1966 are shown in Figure 5. Thesexesujtswere,??obtaiged_tly
averaging the data entered on thec:liympary.kataj5Valuationets
for each project primarily for two data categories( i large -
scale and. small scale object and function). The top lines on the
bar charts reflect data averages obtained from the proven or
experienced viewers. For some projects, especially some of. the.
CN and CI projects, the distinction between large scale and small
scale is not clearcuty furthermore, this differentiation may not
be too important. For the predictive category and most of the CN
projects, data correlations were based mainly on a hit/miss
calculation.
(S/NF/SS 3) Figure 5 indicates that, on the average, data
from proven SUN STREAK viewers For' E3/ I" projects will tend to have
a '20 percent to 30 percent correlation with ground truth for
small scale targets, and a 30 percent to 50 percent correlation
with ground truth for large scale target features. Likewise, for
CT or CN projects, about 20 percent to 50 percent of SUN STREAK
data would be expected to correjate with ground truth. Caution
must be exercised in interpreting this data, however, since the
. datnase with known ground truth is quite low in these
catNloror CI and Document Reading projects, SUN STREAK data
voo8ce,- shows a 40 percent to 60 percent correlation level with ground
seAcAd truthy however the size of this daticlase is also quite low. The
K6Tt':00% Document Reading projects were, however, carefully isolated and
in a known or designated location. Predictive data o+ the
complex event type (e.g., political/military situations) shows a
very low data correlation (i.e., reliability) of about 10 percent
or less.
(S/NF/SS-3) If all SUN STREAK projects are averaged
together, as shown in Figure 6, data correlation would range from
about 20 percent +or small scale aspects to about 40 percent for
large scale aspects. While "averaging" such data may indicate
overall results in the long run, such averaging tends to washout
those results that have singular high mertt, such as. the
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analysts and the IC points of ..... contact provide written appraisals
to assist in the +inal evaluation process. These evaluations are
recorded on summary +orms and are maintained in the Program
Manager's.+iles.
(S/NP/SS 2) An example of an S/T target evaluation is in
/ 'his case the tarcet site was
Z. The project was completed in Juno 1987
and involved +our viewers (2 proven and 2 novice). In this
example, the bracket ( ) indicates a best estimate o+ data
validity was made +or that data category since ground truth is
not yet totally known for A "dash" means that data
category was not present in the viewers' data. One of the
viewers (#101) at to describe the site 6 months in the
+uture. In this case, the
Some o+ the
data categories-(i.e., geographic +eatures, large scale objects)
are not importara. from an intelligence data viewpoint since they
are known +rom conventional collection?assets. However, the
V iewers data in these categories are included in the evaluation
+or this project since they tend to provide confidence that other
(as yet unknown) details in the data may be correct.
(S/NF/SS-2) A more sophisticated analysis methodology has
been recently developed by SRI 4: or" use in evaluating complex
C r jt
'l Th m
is gotd m n a ag
hoai advnte is th a -a
t it llows
ivoy
0,4717-qu.an-tiTied esti ma.iis to be made +or each and every data element
Aio-criu9 generated. by the v)ewer with respect to both actual target
existence and -importance. This technique is currently being
Aft.7-4.%? examined for use in the SUN STREAK program and has been applied
to a +ew projects. However, it is a labor intensive technique
that will probably be used only +or select high interest projects
in the future.
(S/NF/SS 2) Most o+ the other SUN STREAK proiect types do
not require a complex analysis methodology. For example, due to
the nature of what type of data is desired (and availability_o+_
collection assets that can be cued), most of theCCT,
predictive projects where ground truth is known cali-be evaluated
in a "black or white" manner. The viewers' data, even i+ not
acted upon, either correlates with the subsequent location o+ the
fugitive or ship, or it does -not. The event predicted did, or
did not, happen. Thus, overall results +or many of these
projects are simply a matter of counting hits and misses. Hit
ratios or percentages o+ hits/misses' form the basis o+ overall
data correlations made in this report +or these tyw + projects.
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identification several months in advance of a specific area in
the US where a fugitive was later found. In this case, SUN
STREAK data was not acted up on fortunately, the fugitive was
nevertheless abducted in this area due to the alertness of a
local law enforcement officia] -
(S/NF/SS-3) Another way of considering overall SUN .STREAK
project data correlation is to consider only the proven viewers.
This data is shown in Figure 7, for times when these experienced
viewers received a 2 or in the numerical ratings assigned to
their data correlations. Only two types o+ data are presented
hereg. S/T, and Personalityadata as Obtained from the various C.......
(1\I -and CI projects. For. 8/T projects, proven viewers would be
expected to receive a high 0-e. approx. 70 percent) data
correlation rating on about 20 percent of the S/T projects
attempted. For Personality projects (i.e., background, state-of
the-health, specific activities), around 50 percent to 60 percent
of the projects would yield high results. Essentially, this
chart indicates certain strengths/weaknesses of the present SUN
STREAK staff and suggests that more projects on foreign or CI
target personalities are warranted.
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III FINDINGS (U)
(SiNF/SS 3) Although
the overall data correlations provided
in the previous section in some instances, have a low
overall average, the re. .s are unique enough to warrant further
attention and continued SUN STREAK activity. Even in the lowest
reI iability case (i.e., predictive), identification of even one
(i.-
importa ii 1: fut ure eve nt out of t en c out V )n fac e hi g hl
y. .
significant +or cost or life saving. 'rlese "averages" do not do
justice to the single unique cases that cost little to act upon,
as in the case of the fugitive location cited in section 3.
Specific findings that resulted from in-depth
review of the entire SUN STREAK data base includeg
o Individuals' performance correlates with pro'ect type.
This observation has already assisted in better task/prson
matching, and overall data correlations would be expe to
improve in the future.
o SUN STREAK has a distinct potential for direct
I ontribution to certain 1 I7 CN and CT cases, as born out by
specific instances over the past two years.
o Predictive chta is promising under certain conditions?
such as near term events or situations that do not involve
complex int.i.ons.
o 8/T data7 though having promise +or select tasks? does
not yield parametric data.
o SUN STREAK viewers work well under operational stress.
It may be that an environment o+ operational stress
generates a clear and immediate need. This situation seems
to foster conditions that enables RV to +unction better.
o Obtaining highly reliable RV data and then applying it to
real operational projects is difficult. However, it is
OV]. dent that continued work with RV data does result in
CII" eater insight on how best to use RV data and on how best
to utilize RV talent available. Thus, it is anticipated
that RV data utility will increase as experience of the SUN
STREAK team grows.
"IMO .WIMI!W..
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APPENDIX T
PROjECT RECORD DETAILS
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APPENDIX IT
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS TO ANALYST/DATA REVIEWERS
UNCLASSIFIED
CONTENTS
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(S/NF/88-2) The basic approach employed by SUN STREAK
toward developing a prototype operational remote viewing (RV)
capability is to locate personnel with patentia RV capability
and to develop these abilities via appropriate
traning/development procedures. Once satisfactory progress
m n_.7wA- on sloDie-to-verify training tasks, these individuals are ?As PO
presenedwLcvanced training and operational simulation targets. ot 73 ,
_
n.---00eratIonal simulation targets are usually US military or US
scI entific targets where ground truth is totally known or can be
NO\ readily determined. Satisfactory performance on these tasks
qualify an individual +or operational projects of interest to the
intelligence community. In many of the operational projects,
however, ground truth is usually not known (or is only partially
I.:: nown). Consequently, complete evaluation of the viewer's data
cannot be made until a later time when ground truth does become
available. In the interim, reasonable estimates of the overall
validity of the viewer's data can be made for many of the
operational projects worked, based on what is generally known or
suspected about the target. These interim evaluation results are
updated whenever new ground truth is received.
(SINE/ SS 2) The operational projects pursued by SUN STREAK
are pproved by the Program Manager and 'Are, in part, based on
the P 1-ogram anagev's familarity with needs 1:1'd ai----------- 19
.0, 1 010
TO 1.-1
solicitation from others within the IC?wlo have been briefed into
the SUN STREAK program.
(S/NF/SS-2) The Evaluations performed for this report cover
all the operational and operational simulation projects
(approximately 20(i) that have been worked by SUN STREAK personnel
since 1986. A few of the special operations called upon
consultants from the SRI talent pool. These results are also
included in the overall evaluation.
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II EVALIJAT1(1q. ((j)
1. DATA 141, (LD
(S/NF/SS-2) The SUN STREAK project maintains an extensive
record o+ all project activity. Details include project. timing,
people involved (i.e., viewers, interviewers, and possibly
observers), and a variety o+ other data considered essential +or
good record keeping and 4or evaluating project results. This
data, along with project summaries, are maintained in an
automated data base +or convenient retrieval. Copies of project
summaries are also sent to the Program Manager for his review.
In addition, all raw data (i.e., sketches, viewer's notes) are
maintained in a separate +ile that is available +or review and
analysis (Idditjonal project record details are in appendix I).
-d (S/NF/SE 2) Evaluations conducted +or this report involved
a complete reexamination of the entire SUN STREAK operational
data base. Many o+ the earlier projects had only been partially
evaluated, or not evaluated at all, due to lack of suitable
ground truth at the time they were completed. These projects
were re-evaluated at this time to adjust for new intelligence
data that has since become available.
(S/NF/SS 2) For this evaluation, the data base was
subdivided into 6 main project types; (1) Scientific and
Technological (S/T); (2) Counterterrorist (CT)!; (3)
Counternarcotics (CN); (4) Counterintelligence (CI); (5) Document
Contents (Doc (ont); and (6) predictive (pred). Total projects
worked for these categories are shown in Figure 1.
(S/NF/SS 2) 04 the nearly 200 projects worked,
approximately one hal+ cannot be evaluated since ground truth is
not su4ficiently known at this time. For approximately one
+ourth of the projects, ground truth is totally known (or highly
certain), and +or the other one fourth, ground truth is only
partially known but considered suf+icient +or making a reasonable
interim evaluation.
(S/NF/SS 2) Some of these project categories can overlap.
For example, prediction data is also an aspect o+ most of the CN,
many of the CT and a +ew of the S/T projects. The prediction
category in .gure 1 refers primarily to predictions of a
polOACTVr military nature. In +uture analysis, predictive data
will be evaluated as a separate aspect of the these project
categories.
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