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Final F ece~~p~ Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-0Og6ff0e31 fs29d001-6 M Phenomenological. Research and Analysis Authors: Edwin C. May, Ph.D., Wanda L W. Luke, and Nevin D. Lantz, Ph.D. 3 February 1993 Science Applications International Corporation An Employee-Owned Company Presented to: U. S. Government Contract MDA908-91-C-0037 (Client Private) Submitted by: Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Park CA 94025 ? (415) 325-8292 Approved nR~ l 1' @P+ 8 7~ ?O ~I`~ ~~ lOr -0 ra S s, Other SAIC Offices: Albuquerque, Boston, 0, TechrlicalFinal Roeport lease 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................iii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................iv I OBJECTIVE ...................... ........................................ 1 II BACKGROUND ............................................................ 3 1. Historical Perspective ..................................................... 3 2. Current Program ........................................................ 4 III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................... 5 1. Target Dependencies ..................................................... 5 2. Enhancing AC with Binary Targets......... .............................. 6 3. AC in Lucid Dreams ..................................................... 7 4. Magnetoencephalograph .................................................. 8 5. Enhancing AC of Binary Targets ........................................... 9 IV TARGET DEPENDENCIES ................................................. 11 1. Objective .............................................................. 11 2. Introduction ........................................................... 11 3. Approach ............................................................. 13 4. Hypotheses ............................................................ 25 5. Results and Discussion .................................................. 25 V VI ENHANCING DETECTION OF AC OF BINARY TARGETS .................... 31 1. Objective .............................................................. 31 2. Background ............................................................ 31 3. Approach ............................................................. 32 4. Results and Discussion .................................................. 36 MAGNETOENCEPHALOGRAPH ........................................... 39 1. Introduction ........................................................... 39 2. Approach .............................................................. 40 3. Results ................................................................ 46 4. Discussion ............................................................. 46 5. Suggested Research ..................................................... 47 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900011-6 Te cap nal Ur Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-007898003100290001-6 1. OBJECTIVE The objective of this document is to provide a technical final report on tasks 6.2, "Basic Research," 6.3, "Applied Research," and 6.4, as listed in the 1991 Statement of Work. This report covers the time peri- od from 4 February 1991 to 30 June 1992, and includes all subtasks." Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100290001-6 TecffnpcaQ lna~lEe?rr Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 port I1. BACKGROUND With regard to this final report, anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) can be divided into two broad categories:` ? Anomalous Cognition (AC): A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are absent. ? Anomalous Perturbation (A_'): A form of interaction with matter in which all known physical mecha- nisms are absent. For the purpose of this document, we define research that is primarily directed at understanding the nature of AMP (e.g., signal transmission, neurophysiology, etc.) as basic. Research that is primarily directed at improving the quality of output (e.g., analysis techniques, choice of target material, etc.) as applied. Basic and applied research domains are broad and are highly interactive and mutually support- ive. Understanding the technical details of AC phenomena, for example, will improve its application potential, and likewise, being sensitive to the restrictions of a real-world problem may provide insight into underlying mechanisms. 1. Historical Perspective Serious government research of AMP began in 1973 when a modest effort began at SRI International in Menlo Park, California, to determine if AMP could be verified and to assess the degree to which AMP could be applied in practical situations. In fiscal year 1986, SRI International conducted the first coordinated, long-term examination of AC and AP phenomena. This program had three major objectives: ? Provide incontrovertible evidence for the existence of AC and AP. ? Determine the physiological and physical basis for AC and AP. ? Determine the degree to which AC data could be applied in practical situations. The results and conclusions from this program were as follows: ? The first objective was partially met. An information transfer anomaly (i.e., AC) exists that could not be explained by inappropriate protocols, incorrect analyses, or fraud; however, there was insufficient evidence to conclude if AP existed. ? Significant progress was made in meeting the second objective. For example, (1) The central nervous system (i.e., the brain) of individuals with known AC ability appeared to re- spond to isolated AC stimuli. ? A definition of terms may be found in the Glossary in Section X on page 71. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900Q1-6 Teclfffca?l~lndl Forr Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 LIST OF FIGURES 1. City with a Mosque ............................................................. 14 2. Green Intensity Distribution for the City Target (Macro1-pixel 3,3) .................... 15 3. City with Mosque (I AS I = 1.88 bits) .............................................. 15 4. Pacific Islands (I AS I = 1.45 bits) ................................................. 16 5. Zener Target Cards (Average I AS I = 0.15 bits) ..................................... 16 6. Cluster Diagram for Dynamic Targets ............................................. 17 7. Cluster Diagram for Static Targets ................................................ 18 8. Target and Response with a post hoc Rating of 7 .................................... 22 9. Target and Response with apost hoc Rating of 4 .................................... 23 10. Target and Response with apost hoc Rating of 1 .................................... 24 11. Correlation of Post Hoc Score with Static Target AS ................................. 27 12. Correlation of Post Hoc Score with Dynamic Target AS ............................... 28 13. TWo-tailed SA Decision Graph ................................................... 33 14. Operating Characteristic Function-1 Tail ......................................... 34 15. Operating Characteristic Function-2Tail ......................................... 35 16. Sequence of Events for Stimuli Generation ......................................... 41 17. Phase Calculation for a Single Stimulus ............................................ 43 18. A Tivo-by-Five, Error Correcting Block Code ....................................... 52 19. Correlation: Levels of Visual Complexity with Post Hoc Ratin and Blind Ranking for Post Hoc Scores Greater than Three (i.e., evidence for AC ... .................. 64 20. Correlation: Levels of Visual Complexity with Post Hoc Ratings and Blind Rankings for all Post Hoc Scores .......................................................... 65 21. Experimental Paradigm for Raining .............................................. 70 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000i1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report III. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During the course of this 18-month contract, we conducted five experiments that were designed to ad- dress specific issues of applied and basic research of AMP. Additionally, we conducted a variety of other investigations that did not require further experimentation. As an example of the latter, we applied fuzzy set theory to the data from one of the experiments. In this section, we provide a non-technical summary of the five experiments. Details on all tasks may be found in the body of the report. A well-designed experiment provides valuable information regardless of the particular outcome. In our experimental effort during this contract, three studies produced positive outcomes and two did not. All, however, provided useful guidelines for a follow-on effort. 1. Target Dependencies 1.1 Abstract The purpose of this experiment was to determine if the quality of AC depends upon an intrinsic target property, which is called the change of entropy (i.e., the amount of information contained in visual tar- get material). This was examined for two different target types, photographs and short video clips. A second objective was to determine if the quality of AC depends upon a sender (i.e., a person who is isolated from the receiver but who is focusing upon the target material). The experimental results indicate that the quality of AC does not require a sender to know about, or to focus his or her attention on, the target. Most importantly, we found a strong correlation between the quality of the AC and the change of entropy in a target: That is, the more information determined by information theory contained in the target, the better the AC. Should this result replicate in other ex- periments, it may be the first indication of an independent physical variable that is fundamental to AC. If so, this information can be used to vastly improve many other types of AC experiments. 1.2 Approach Each of five receivers, who had previously demonstrated an AC ability, contributed 40 trials each. All receivers worked alone from their homes and, at a prearranged time, conducted an AC trial for a target that was located no less than 500 km away. The target was either a photograph from the National Geographic magazine or a short clip from a video movie. For half of the trials, the experimenter acted as a sender, and for all trials, the receivers were unaware of the target type or if there was a sender. After receiving the responses by facsimile machine, the experimenter mailed each receiver the target as feed- back. Standard statistical procedures were use to determine whether there were differences in AC quality among these various conditions. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900c 1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report binary number target (i.e., one or zero). Sequential analysis is particularly sensitive to whether there is a "burst" of AC and can also determine to within statistical limits if no AC is present. 2.3 Results The experienced receiver again produced significant evidence of AC of binary targets. That receiver's hit rate of 51.6% before the application of sequential analysis was improved to 76% as a result of the analysis. The other two receivers scored at chance expectation. 2.4 Conclusions We confirmed earlier results that it is possible to enhance detection of AC with binary targets using sequential analysis. A major difficulty, however, is that the receivers had to register a guess (i.e. by pressing a computer mouse button) approximately 200 times for each sequential analysis trial. Thus the technique, while capable of enhancing the detection of AC of binary targets, is particularly inefficient due to excessive time expenditures. 3. AC in Lucid Dreams 3.1 Abstract Throughout human experience, people have reported various types of AC in dreams, and laboratory experiments in the 1970s confirmed that AC may occur in dreams. A lucid dream is defined as one in which a dreamer becomes aware that she or he is dreaming. Extensive research has confirmed the exis- tence of lucid dreaming, and that it is possible for the dreamer to signal the waking world about his or her knowledge about the dream. The purpose of this pilot study was to determine if AC could occur during lucid dreaming. We found that AC can occur in lucid dreams. Because the dream-trials did not take place in the laboratory, there was some difficulty in interpreting the results; however, it was clear that lucid dreams do not inhibit AC functioning. Because of the success of this experiment, we will be repeating it in an appropriate sleep laboratory. 3.2 Approach This experiment was designed as a pilot effort. Seven receivers, three experienced in lucid dreaming and four experienced as AC receivers, participated in the study. The four AC receivers were first trained in lucid dreaming before the AC trials began. During each trial, a target was selected randomly from the established pool of National Geographic magazine photographs and doubly sealed in two opaque envelopes. The dreamer/receiver placed the envelope next to the bed and was instructed, when a dream became lucid, to "open" the dream envelope (i.e., not the real envelope) while still dreaming, study its content, and report the experienc: upon waking. The target was provided as feedback once the data had been presented to the experimenter. Our standard rank-order analysis was performed to determine if AC occurred in the study. Since the trials were conducted in each receiver's own bedroom rather than under laboratory conditions, it was difficult to "induce" a lucid dream on demand. Thus, the total number of trials was small (i.e., 21). Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000A-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report stimuli). Our data contained substantial noise and, unfortunately, our analysis technique was so sensi- tive to it that any brain response to the isolated flashing lights would not have been observed. Fortu- nately, we have saved all the raw data from this experiment, so all that is required is to reanalyze the data with improved techniques. We are currently engaged in that task. 4.4 Conclusion Until this new analysis is complete, we are unable to determine whether the brain responds to isolated stimuli. In the body of the report, we suggest that an improved protocol be implemented as part of the continuing research effort. 5. Enhancing the Detection of AC with Binary Coding 5.1 Abstract The literature reports many attempts at using various statistical approaches to enhance the detection of AC. In this experiment, we used a standard technique from information theory (i.e., error correction through redundancy coding). We were unable to demonstrate that this particular procedure was suc- cessful. As a result of this experiment, we identified a number of improvements that might be applied in new studies. For example, in our study, the statistical technique required special targets, which have not been part of our usual collection. A replication will use a pool of targets that have been successfully used in other experiments. We also learned that our statistical procedure was not sensitive to correct AC responses that happened not to be part of the statistical procedure. We have identified a number of new approaches that correct this problem. 5.2 Approach Five receivers, who had previously demonstrated AC ability, contributed eight trials each. For each trial, all receivers worked alone from their homes and, at a convenient time, conducted an AC trial for a target that was located no less than 500 km away. The targets, which were photographs from the Nation- al Geographic magazine, were chosen in accordance with specific design criteria and were available for one week for each trial. Tb use error correcting coding, we identified a series of questions that per- tained to the presence or absence of specified target elements. In this way, a target element, for exam- ple water, could correspond to a single binary bit in the error correcting code. That is, if water were present in the target, the value of one would be assigned to it, otherwise it would be assigned a value of zero. We created ten different sets of five target elements and chose photographs that matched the presence/absence criteria. The presence or absence of particular target elements was dictated by the requirements of the 5-bit binary error correcting code that we used in this study. The principle behind error correcting coding in an AC application is that a receiver could "miss" one of the target elements but still arrive at the correct target. Error correction is a common technique found in the computer industry and in deep space communications. We were adapting its use for AC experiments. After a receiver had completed an AC trial, the response was sent by facsimile to an experimenter in our laboratory in Menlo Park, CA. By return facsimile, the receiver was sent five questions that required yes/no answers for the presence or absence of the target elements. Upon the receipt of the completed questionn- aire, the experimenter sent the photograph back as feedback. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Apppproved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Tech'hical Final Report IV. TARGET DEPENDENCIES This section comprises the final report for SOW items and 1. Objective There are two objectives of this pilot study: (1) Explore the effects of target properties on AC quality. (2) Determine the degree to which AC quality depends upon a sender. 2. Introduction The field of parapsychology has been interested in improving the quality of responses to target material since the 1930's, when J. B. Rhine first began systematic laboratory studies of extra sensory perception. Since that time, much of the field's effort has been oriented toward psychological factors that may influ- ence AC. In this section, we review the pertinent literature that categorizes targets that have been used successfully in AC experiments. At a recent conference, Delanoy reported on a survey of the literature for successful AC experiments.1 She categorized the target material according to perceptual, psychological, and physical characteristics. Except for trends related to dynamic, multi-sensory targets, she was unable to observe systematic cor- relations of AC quality with her target categories. Watt examined the AC-target question from a psychological perspective.2 She concluded that the best AC targets should be those that are psychologically meaningful, have emotional impact, and contain human interest; those targets that have physical features that stand out from their backgrounds or con- tain movement, novelty, and incongruity also should be good targets. The difficulty with both the survey of the experimental literature and the psychologically oriented theoretical approach is that understanding the sources of the variation in AC quality is problematical. Using a vision analogy, energy sources of visual material are easily understood (i.e., photons); yet, the percept of vision is not well understood. Psychological and possibly physiological factors influence what we "see." In AC research, the same difficulty arises. Until we understand what factors influence the AC ;percept, results of systematic studies of AC are difficult to interpret. 'Yet, in a few cases, some progress has been realized. In 1990, Honorton et al. conducted a careful meta- analysis of the experimental Ganzfeld literature.3 In Ganzfeld experiments, receivers are placed in a state of mild sensory isolation and asked to describe their mental imagery. After each trial, the analysis is performed by the receiver, who is asked to rank order four pre-defined targets, which include the actual target and three decoys; the chance first-place rank hit rate is 0.25. In 355 trials collected from 241 different receivers, Honorton et al. found a hit rate of 0.31 (z = 3.89, p < 5 x 10-5) for an effect Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000i1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report Because the historical database included trials with and without senders, we explored the effects of a sender on AC; quality, as well. 3. Approach 3.1 Target-pool Selection The static target material for this pilot study was a set of 50 National Geographic magazine photographs. This set was divided into 10 sets of five photographs that were determined to be visually dissimilar by a fuzzy set analysis.? The dynamic target material was four sets of five 60 to 90 second clips from popular video movies. These clips were selected because they had the following characteristics: ? Were thematically coherent. ? Contained obvious geometric elements (e.g., wings of aircraft). ? Were emotionally neutral in that they did not contain obvious arousing material. The intent of these selection criteria was to control for cognitive surprise, to provide target elements that are easily sketched, and to control for psychological factors such as perceptual defensiveness. 3.2 Target Preparation The target variable that was considered in this experiment was the total change of Shannon entropy per unit area, per unit time. We chose this quantity because it was qualitatively related to the "information" contained in the target types shown in Table 1, and because it represented a potential physical variable that is important in the detection of traditional sensory stimuli. In the case of image data, the entropy is defined as: Nk -1 SA = - I pJklog2(p;k), = 0 if Pik = 0, J-o wherePjk is the probability of finding image intensityj of color k. In a standard, digitized, true color image, each pixel (i.e., picture element) contains eight binary bits of red, green, and blue intensity, re- spectively. That is, Nk is 256 (i.e., 28) for each k, k = r, & b. The total change of the entropy in differential form is given by: dSk = IV S, I ? dr + Hat* dt. (1) That is, the total change of Shannon entropy is the change because of spatial variations in the static targets added to the change resulting from frame-to-frame variations in the video targets. We must specify the spatial and temporal resolution before we can compute the total change of entropy for a real image. Henceforth; we drop the color index, k, and assume that all quantities are computed for each color and summed. 3.2.1 Static Targets lb select the 50 static targets, 100 National Geographic magazine photographs were scanned at 100 dots per inch (dpi) for eight bits of information of red, green, and blue intensity. At one centimeter spatial resolu- tion, this scanning density provides 1,550 pixels for each 1-c i2 macro-pixel to compute the pj. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900i 1-6 gg aYreopoelease 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Tjp CPYRGHT 0.01 -11 0 20 40 60 80 100 Intensity (j) Figure 2. Green Intensity Distribution for the City Thrget (Macro-pixel 3,3) We used a standard algorithm to compute the 2-dimensional spatial gradient of the entropy. Figure 3 shows contours of constant change of entropy (calculated from Equation 1) for the city target. The total change per unit area is 1.88 bits/cm.? Figure 3. Citywith Mosque (I AS I = 1.88 bits) The city target was chosen as an example because it was known (qualitatively) to be a "good" static photograph for AC trials in earlier research. Figure 4 shows contours of constant change of entropy for a photograph that was known not to be a "good" AC target. In this formalism, entropy is in units of bits and the maximum entropy is 24 bits. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report asr J .!Ls r~ (t) = Sj (t + At) - S,, (t) at d t d r (2) where At is one over the digitizing frame rate (i.e., one second). We can see immediately that the dy- namic targets have a larger AS than do the static ones because Equation 2 is zero for all static targets. 3.2.3 Cluster Analysis Using Equations 1 and 2, we computed AS for all the static and dynamic targets. These targets were grouped, using standard cluster analysis, into relatively orthoginal clusters of relatively constant AS. Fuzzy set analysis and inspection were used to construct packets of five visually dissimilar targets from within each cluster. Our interim report, which is dated 15 February 1992, details the cluster analysis.8 Figures 6 and 7 show the dusters from that report for the dynamic and static targets, respectively. --- - ------ ' EL 1 ,9 11i N"I : -------------- Figure 6. Cluster Diagram for Dynamic Targets For ease of reading, Figure 7 shows only those 50 static targets that were used to form the constant entropy clusters, rather than the whole set of 100. We show the computed AS at the end of each duster leaf. 3.3 Target Selectlon For a specified target type (e.g., static photographs), a target packwas selected randomly and one target of the five within that pack was also chosen randomly. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290Q91-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Techhical Final Report 3.4 Receiver Selection Each of five experienced receivers, who have produced significant AC effect sizes in previous investigations, contributed 40 AC trials (ie., ten trials under each of the conditions shown in'Iable 2). 'IWo of the receivers resided in California while the other three resided in Kansas, New York, and Virginia. Experiment Conditions Condition Target Type Sender 1 Static Yes 2 Static No 3 Dynamic Yes 4 Dynamic No 3.5 Sender Selection The sender for all trials was the principal investigator (PI), who was in Lititz, Pennsylvania. 3.6 Session Protocol 3.6.1 Target Preparation Prior to beginning the experiment, an experiment coordinator randomly generated a unique set of 20 static and 20 dynamic targets for each of the five receivers. After a target was selected, it was immedi- ately returned to the pool of possible targets and so could be used again. Within each target type, a counter balanced set of sender/no sender conditions was also generated. A copy of each target was placed in an envelope and a trial number, 1 through 40, was written on the outside. Those envelopes containing targets from the no-sender condition were sealed while those for the sender condition re- mained unsealed. Each set of 40 targets was packaged separately and shipped to the PI in Pennsylvania. 3.6.2 Trial Schedule The experiment was conducted over a five month period. Individual schedules were developed with each receiver so as to cause as little inconvenience to their daily routine as possible. 3.6.3 Session Sequence For each trial and for each receiver, the PI proceeded as follows: o Selected the appropriately numbered envelope from the box for the appropriate receiver. o In the sender condition, looked at the selected target for 15 minutes and attempted to "transmit" it to the intended receiver during that time period o In the no-sender condition for the static targets, placed the unopened envelope on an uncluttered desk in the PI's office for the 15 minute trial period. In the no-sender condition for the dynamic tar- gets, played the video repeatedly for 15 minutes with the sound turned off and the TV monitor in another room. O At the conclusion of the 15 minute trial period and after the receipt of the receiver's response by fac- simile, sent a copy of the target material (i.e., either a photograph or video tape) to the receiver by mail. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290gg1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report 3.7.3 Post-Hoc Assessment Rank-order analysis does not usually indicate the absolute quality of the AC. For example, a response which is a near-perfect description of the target receives a rank of one. Yet a response which barely matches the target, may also receive a rank of one. Table 3 shows the rating scale that we used to per- form a past hoc assessment of the quality of the AC responses regardless of their rank. The quality of an AC response is defined as its visual correspondence with the intended target. Score Description 7 Excellent correspondence, including good analytical detail, with essentially no incorrect information. 6 Good correspondence with good analytical information and relatively little incorrect information. S Good correspondence with unambiguous unique matchable elements, but some incorrect information. 4 Good correspondence with several matchable elements intermixed with incorrect information. 3 Mixture of correct and incorrect elements, but enough of the former to indicate receiver has made contact with the target. 2 Some correct elements, but not sufficient to suggest results beyond chance expectation. 1 Very little correspondence. 0 No correspondence. To apply this subjective scale to a target-response trial, an analyst begins with a score of seven and deter- mines if the description for that score is correct If not, then the analyst tries a score of six and so on. In this way the scale is traversed from seven toward zero until the score-description is correct for the trial. Figures 8 through 10 illustrate the application of this scale and show that the quality of an AC response is not necessarily indicated by its first-place rank. All three examples were given a rank of one in a blind analysis. These examples were chosen from the experiment which is being described in this section (i.e., Section IV). The response to the waterfall target in Figure 8 included a number of pages of material about a city and other man-made activity. In all of our analyses, we strictly adhere to the concept that any material a receiver deletes from the response prior to feedback is not counted in the analysis. Thus, the response in Figure 8 is considered as complete. The other examples are shown in their entirety. The scale shown in Table 3 can be divided into two sections, 0-3 and 4-7. ' The upper portion of the scale indicates clear contact, presumably by AC means, with the intended target material, while the remain- der of the scale indicates little or no contact. 'We used this scale to provide assessment scores to examine the correlation with the target entropy. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900Qr1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report 4. Hypotheses 4.1 Null Hypothesis The overall null hypothesis was that s = 0. 4.2 Sender and Target Condition Using an F-test we tested the hypothesis that the quality of AC does not depend upon a sender regard- less of target type. Similarly, we used an F-test to test the hypothesis that the quality of AC does not depend upon target type regardless of the sender condition. The ANOVA also tests for potential interactions between the target and sender conditions. For exam- ple, it might be that a sender is required for dynamic targets and not for static ones. 4.3 Target Entropy The AC quality (i.e., scores greater than three from the post hoc scale in Table 3) of each trial was corre- lated with targetA S. A significant correlation would indicate that target entropy and AC quality may be ]linearly related. 5. Results and Discussion 5.1 Effect Size Analysis ]Five receivers completed 40 trials each. Table 4 shows the effect sizes (i.e., z /,) computed for the 10 trials in each cell. The shaded cells indicate 1-tailed significant results. Receiver 009 showed significant evidence for AC in the static target, no-sender condition (p < 0.02); receiver 372 in the static target, sender condition (p C 0.01); and receiver 518 in the static target, no-sender condition (p < 0.05). See the underscored values in Table 4. Receiver Sender Static No Sender Dynamic No Sender Static Sender Dynamic 009 -0.071 0.141 0.636 -0.141 131 -0.071 0.495 -0.071 0.212 372 0.707 -0.283 0.141 -0.354 389 0.141 0.000 0.212 0.000 518 -0.088 0.283 0.530 -0.495 5.2 Analysis of Variance I:hble 5 shows the results of an ANOVA on these data. Since there were 10 trials within each cell, the degrees of freedom are the same for all receivers and, therefore, are only shown in the column headings. Two receivers show significant main effects. Receiver 372 showed a tendency to favor static over dy- namic targets (i.e., p S 0.03), and receiver 518 showed a tendency to favor no sender (i.e., p < 0.04). Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290091-6 Approved For Release 2DBYMMBl7f : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report white rectangular box like an upside-down sheet cake 14- long // same box 2 two circular shapes in front, like stepping stones in a garden long hollow tube, like crashing surf on a beach - "Hawaii Pipeline" Figure 9. Target and Response with a Post Hoc Rating of 4 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000129 Approved For Release 2001/03107 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report fices to say, however, that the sigma-count (i.e., the sum of the membership values over all 131 visual elements) for each target is proportional to its visual complexity. A list of these target elements may be found in Appendix A. Figure 11. Correlation of Post Hoc Score with Static Target AS We computed the liner correlation coefficient for target complexity with the assigned post hoc rating. For all 100 static targets used in this study we found r = 0.049, df = 98, and for target complexity with the measured AS, we found r = -0.031, df = 98.` On closer inspection neither of these small correlations is surprising. While it is true that an analyst will find more matchable elements in a complex target, so also are there many elements that do not match. Since the rating scale (i.e., Table 3) is sensitive to correct and incorrect elements, the analyst is not biased by visual complexity. The change of Shannon entropy is derived from the intensities of the three primary colors (i.e., Equa- tion 1 on page 13) and is unrelated to large-scale objects or meaning, which is inherent in the definition of visual complexity. Thus, we would not expect a correlation between AS and visual complexity. 'Visual complexity, therefore, cannot account for the correlation shown in Figure 11; thus, we are able to conclude that the quality of an AC response depends upon the spatial information (i.e., change of Shan- non entropy) in a static target. A. single analyst scored the 100 responses from the dynamic targets using the post hoc scale in Table 3. Figure 12 shows the scatter diagram for the post hoc scores and the associated AS for the 24 trials with a score greater than three for the dynamic targets. We found a linear correlation of r = 0.043, df = 22. Usingjustthe 28 data points in Figure 11, we find r= -0.214 df = 26 andr - 0.003, df = 26 for the eorrelationwith theposthoc score and AS, respectively. Since these correlations are negative or very small, they do not alter the conclusion. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900P11-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report in space, a nature segment on the Grand Canyon, and a James Bond thriller can be included in the same target pool. Conversely, the well-known Zener cards represent a vary narrow target bandwidth. The static targets, which are constructed from a collection of National Geographic magazine photographs, represent an intermediate bandwidth; the size and general content of the material is roughly the same throughout the pool. We hypothesize that the bandwidth of the target pool is a source of intrinsic noise in the receiver. We assume that the information that t is gained by AC is small compared to other sensory mechanisms, and the primary mental task for a receiver is to discriminate the AC data from internally generated, target- unrelated information. For large bandwidth target pools that may contain almost anything, a receiver is unable censor his/her internal experience. Thus, target-related and target-unrelated material are equally reported; therefore, large bandwidth pools are extrinsically noisy. Small bandwidth pools are also extrinsically noisy but for a different reason. If a receiver is cognizant of all of a limited set of target elements (e.g., Zener cards), then he/she has an internal discrimination problem. All target possibili- ties are experienced with equal intensity because of knowledge about the pool and vivid short-term memory. Assuming there is weak AC information about the specific target, then target-extrinsic noise is generated because of the very low signal-to-noise ratio. Most of our receivers have participated in many earlier experiments which used the static target pool, and were unfamiliar with target pools with large bandwidths such as the dynamic pool. Historically, we have observed AC effect sizes for static targets 50% to 100% larger than we found in this experiment. The current protocol did not include monitoring the AC trials, and thereceivers were blind to the target -tee It is impossible to determine from this experiment which factor was predominant, but if the band- width argument is correct, we would expect a decrease in functioning for even the static targets because receivers would not be able to self-censor their responses.* We recommend that a new target pool be developed that limits the bandwidth of the dynamic targets and that the static targets be specific frames from within the dynamic target pool. In this way, we can control for target bandwidth effects between the target types. We recommend that a new experiment be conducted with these new target pools. 5.4 Overall Conclusions Based upon the results of this pilot experiment, we provide the following tentative conclusions: ? The ANOVA results suggest that a sender is not fundamentally required for AC. ? Subject to the caveat suggested in the previous section, the ANOVA results suggest that AC quality does not depend upon target type. ? AC quality for static targets is proportional to a target's spatial information (i.e., AS). Because of the importance of determining if AS is an intrinsic target property for all AC targets, we urge that this study be repeated with the improvements discussed above. " It is important to recognize that limited, or even complete, knowledge of the target pool cannot bias theblind rank-order statis- ticbecause it is a differential measurewithin the pool. It may, however, change the mean of thepost hoc scores, but correlations are insensitive to means. Thus, correlations based upon the past hoc assessment remain valid. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900M-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report V. ENHANCING DETECTION OF AC OF BINARY TARGETS This section constitutes the final report for SOW item 1. Objective The objective of this investigation was to replicate and extend an earlier study that enhanced the detec- tion of AC of binary targets. 2. Background In 1984, Puthoff used a majority vote procedure to statistically enhance the detection AC of binary tar- gets.9 The chance probability of guessing a binary target correctly is 050. In Puthoff's experiment, his best receiver, using AC methods, increased the probability to 60%. Using a majority vote of five guesses per bit, the probability of guessing the target correctly was increased by 18.3% from 60 to 71 percent. In fact, if the probability of guessing a binary target is given by P=P0+6, (4) where 6 is a non-negative constant much, much less than unity and pb = 05, then it can be shown that a majority vote procedure is the most efficient method for obtaining an arbitrarily accurate guess. Let n be the number of bits in a majority vote procedure (i.e., n is assumed to be odd). Then the majority vote proba- bility is given by a binomial sum as: ! P(n)=p"+Inn1)p"_'(1-p)+...+ nZ1 pil(1-p)2, where p is the single bit probability given by Equation 4. By choosing n large, P(n) can approach unity. The problem is that a majorityvote procedure is predicated on the assumption that a is not a function of the, an assumption that is known not to be true in AC experiments. Ryzi attempted to solve this problem by modifying a majority vote scheme to include on-line checks.1? He was able to demonstrate a 100% accu- rate guess of 15 decimal digits encoded as 50 binary digits (p = 10-15). In 1985, Puthoff, May, and Thomson used a well-known technique called sequential analysis (SA) and, for one receiver, realized a 3.7% enhancement 53.6 to 55.6 percent in a binary AC experiment.11 Dif- fering from the usual statistical analysis, SA does not require that the sample size be specified in ad- vance; however, by adjusting certain SA parameters, it is possible to set the expected number of trials in the processes. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290(A1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report OC(p) = 1 - k ,~ , where p is given by (1 ?9) - () 1 - (I-P, k ) p(h) = 1-'0 lk k , where -co 5 h 5 +co. (; - - 1-p1 (7) 3.2 A Two?-tailed Example of Sequential Analysis In this section we modify the formalism of SA to include a measure of the difference between the accu- mulated number of ones and the expected number of ones. This will allow a two-tailed application of SA. The only modification that is necessary to Equation 5 is that the slope, a, is now given by: Po (8) a In this example we assume that a so that the curves (see Figure 13) that define the decision algo- rithm are symmetric. Let 8 be the accumulated excess number of ones (i.e., the number of ones minus the expected number of ones). In the two-tailed case, the two hypotheses that are tested by SA become Hg:p=pO,andH1:p=Pjorp=1 -pp. Line yj Sample Number Line yo Line -yo Line -yl Figure 13. Pwo-tailed SA Decision Graph When S enters either Region 1 or 2, stop the sampling and assume HI is true with a Type II error of P. Likewise, if S enters Region 3, stop the sampling and assume Hp is true with a Type I error of a. 3.3 Hypotheses The two hypotheses that were tested in this experiment are: (1) Ho:p=po=0.5,and Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900091-6 TecApp ?Fi a For rRelease 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Figure 15. Operating Characteristic Function - 2-Tail 3.4 Protocol 3.4.1 Receiver Selection Three receivers participated in this study. One (receiver 531) was selected because that individual had pro- duced statistically significant results in earlier similar experiments. 12,13 Two receivers (7 and 83) were se- lected because of their interest and because of successes in free-response AC experiments. 3.4.2 Target Selection A Sun Microsystem's SPARC workstation used a feedback shift register algorithm to generate a single binary target for each SA decision trial.14 3.4.3 Trial Definition A trial was defined as an assertive SA decision. That is, either p = pj or p =1 -pl. Decisions resulting in p = pip were tabulated, but otherwise ignored. Each receiver contributed 100 trials. 3.4.4 Sample Definition An experimental control program oscillated a single binary bit between one and zero as rapidly as pos- sible. When a mouse button was pressed, the state of that oscillating bit represented the value of the single sample. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290(3O1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report Table 7 Analysis Method Hits Trials Rate Z-Score E Sequential Analysis 44 100 0.440 -1.20 -0.120 Binomial (decision) 1,916 3,966 0.483 -2.13 -0.034 Binomial (all) 9,422 18,937 0.498 -0.68 -0.005 :Receiver 83 produced an overall score of mean chance expectation. Receiver 531 Analysis Method Hits THals Rate Z-Score E Sequential Analysis 76 100 0.760 5.20 0.520 Binomial (decision) 2,842 5,059 0562 8.79 0.124 Binomial (all) 11,008 21,337 0.516 1 774.65 0.032 Receiver 531 produced an overall significant score (i.e. Z = 5.2 p:!=1 X 10-7 P e = 0.52). This receiver is experienced at computer tasks and the result is consistent with his historical performance. A raw hit rate of 0.516 is what is usually seen,12 and the effect size of 0.032 is consistent with other forced choice AC experiments. Although only one receiver of three produced significant evidence of AC, the result is illustrative of the technique, and because of 531's previous performance, we consider that this result is not likely to be spurious. While a 16-fold enhancement of effect size was realized by the SA method, it is particularly inefficient; to obtain 100 decisions, 531 pressed the mouse button 21,333 times for an efficiency of 0.47%. It is possible that the efficiency could be improved if the basic SA method could include some adaptive method. That is, the parameters of the analysis could be modified on the basis of the recent scoring rate. If sufficient improvement could be realized, this method might be incorporated as an aid in decision making in practical applications. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290901-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report VI. MAGNETOENCEPHALOGRAPH This section comprises the final report for SOW item 6.2.1. 1. Introduction In a series of electroencephalograph (EEG) experiments conducted at SRI International beginning in 1974, the central nervous system (CNS) of individuals was found to respond to remote and isolated visu- al stimuli (i.e., a flashing light).15,16,17 In the first experiment, during randomly interleaved 10-second epochs (i.e., trials), either a flashing light (16 Hz) or no light was present in a sensorially and physically isolated room. Significant decreases of occipital alpha power of isolated receivers were observed by Rebert and'Ihrner.15 Zino replications were conducted in collaboration with Galin and Ornstein at the Langley Porter Neuropsychiatric Institute. As reported by May et al., the results were inconclusive; the first replication confirmed the Rebert and Turner finding, a decrease of alpha power concomitant with the flashing light, but the second replication attempt found an increase in alpha power.17 Under another program in FY 1988, SRI International and a biophysics group at a national laboratory conducted an experiment using the magnetoencephalograph (MEG) technique. This experiment was designed as a conceptual extension of the May et al. EEG experiment, although there were significant differences in the protocol. Two types of stimuli were randomly presented to an isolated sender while MEG data were collected from a receiver. The experimental stimulus (i.e., remote stimulus) was a 5-cm square, linear, vertical sinusoidal grating lasting 100 milliseconds. The second stimulus, a control stimu- lus (i.e., pseudostimulus), was simply a time marker corresponding to a blank screen in the data stream, and was also presented to the sender. There was no change in the alpha power, as reported by May et al., but a post hoc analysis revealed a root-mean-square average phase shift of the dominant alpha fre- quency.18 A key result of that experiment was that similar "anomalous" phase shifts were obtained for the remote stimuli and the pseudostimuli. Three candidate explanations for these results were sug- gested. The observed phase shifts might have been: ? Spurious (i.e., statistical deviations within chance expectations) ? Electromagnetic artifacts ? Evidence of anomalous cognition In order to determine which of these three candidate explanations was correct, we replicated the study at the national laboratory as part of this current effort. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000196 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report either the RS or PS; and reset the buffer pointers after 100 ms (i.e., the stimulus duration = 100 ms). Figure 16 shows this sequence in graphical form. Figure 16. Sequence of Events for Stimuli Generation 2.1.5 Placement of the Seven-Sensor MEG Array The placement of the seven-sensor MEG array was determined by an individual receiver's response to a direct light stimulus. While being stimulated by randomly interleaved low and high spatial-frequency gratings, sufficient stimuli (e.g., 30 to 50 of each type) were collected to produce good signal-to-noise responses. The position of the sensor array, relative to head-based coordinates, was recorded manually on a skull cap, so that the array could be repositioned accurately during subsequent experimental blocks. The array positions that were used during the RS blocks were determined by the maximum re- sponse to these direct stimuli. For this portion of the experiment, the stimuli were generated three to four times faster (i.e., - 1 per second) than in the AC portion of the experiment. 2.1.6 Session Protocol The session protocol was a follows: (1) Using the marking on the skull cap, the MEG array was repositioned as close as possible to the original calibration location. (2) Its position was confirmed with direct stimuli, and adjustments were made, if they were necessary. (3) The designated sender was positioned in front of the remote monitor, which was located approxi- mately 40 in from the receiver. (4) The video monitor, which presented the direct stimuli, was turned off. (5) The receiver was instructed to relax with eyes closed. In addition, the receiver was given a few possible strategies that included focusing attention on the display that the sender was observing, on the sender, or on both. (6) The receiver was notified, by intercom, that the run was about to begin. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000146 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report I A WAt~Y~Ar4~w~ x(t) - linear Process Y(t) X(v) = FFT [x(U)l Then Y(v) - FFT [),(I)] 1 Jim H(v)1 Phase Vv) - tan ev YOV H(v) Y Gain - IH(v)I Figure 17. Phase Calculation for a Single Stimulus Statistics (e.g., p-values, z-scores) were computed from the distribution of RMS phases derived from the Monte-Carlo-pass distribution. Conceptually, a 2-tailed z-score was calculated from a Monte Carlo distribution of phase shifts in the following way: Let up and aw be the mean and standard deviation of the Monte Carlo phase shift dis- tribution, and To be the observed RMS phase shift. Since the distribution of averages is approximately normal, compute: z=X00 and P ;1e-oss2 z Since we did not specify a direction for a change in phase, the p-value for the block was given by. p=2xP, and the two-tailed z-score was computed from the inverse normal distribution for P In the experiment, the empirical value of P was used. That is, the number of Monte Carlo-derived RMS phases that were greater than or equal to the observed RMS phase was divided by the total number of Monte Carlo passes. There- fore, the 1-a error estimate in P were computed from the binomial distribution for proportions. Or _P(1-P) 1-0' error in P = M where M is the number of Monte Carlo passes. For this replication, the analyst was "blind" to the identity of the receiver, the date, the experiment condition (i.e., experimental or control run), and the stimulus type. Details of the Analysis Consider N blocks of experimental data. Let njr be the number of remote stimuli r for block j, and njp be the number of pseudo stimuli p in block j. Similarly, define #jr and Ejp as the corresponding effect sizes for block j. We define the weighted effect size for each stimulus type, k, as N ~k = 2: WjkEJk, J.1 po tstimuhts: y(t) Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-0 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report The variance of a is given by: N a= Qjd,. J.1 N Var(J~ _ > Qj Var(d ), J.1 Var(dj) = Var(Ej,) + Var(EJP) - 2 Cov(E1?EJP), COV(EJ^EJP) - Q-P Vm'(Ej,) ? VYar(EJP). Combining these equations with the definition for the variance of the effect size, gives the Var(1) as x Var(a') (nr + n1P - 2 p-P Yar(EJ.) ? Var(EJP) J.1 LL (3) Tests Against the Null Hypothesis: i(Experiment) -Z(Control) = 0. lb compare each stimulus type in the experimental and control conditions, we assume that the data are independent. Thus, the z-score for the difference is given by Zk(e - c) = Var(tk(el) + Var((k(c)) (4) eJk(e) wjk(c) V J.1 J.1 where e and c represent the experiment and after-block control conditions, respectively, d is the weighted difference for the stimulus type in the experiment and control conditions. Equation 4 is used to test the difference between experimental blocks and their corresponding control blocks. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6' Approved For Release 2001/03/07 :-CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report Rao relationshipt9)? One representation of the Crammer-Rao relationship for the variance of the instanta- neous phase, 0, is given by (O) 1 Yar zdTxRsN' where A T is the analysis time (i.e., 0.5 s in our case) and RSN is the signal-to-noise ratio. For our typical brain-wave records, the lower bound for Var(?) was approximately 2.67 rad,2 or the expected error was 1.63 rad or 93.6 degrees. This estimate is a lower bound, but a more realistic estimate might be higher because of the nonstationary nature of brain-wave data. Thus, if there were phase shifts related to the RS, they likely would have been masked by the noise, and we would not have seen them. Fortunately, we have saved all the raw data and are able to use an appropriate analysis to determine whether a phase shift occurred concomitant with the RS. We are unable to manipulate RSN; however, we are able, in principle, to extend the analysis time, d T, arbitrarily. There are confounding factors that will limit the size of AT, so other techniques may have to be employed. In a recent article, Boashash has outlined a number of promising techniques that are specifically developed to address this problem in nonstationary data.19 It is important to look carefully at this data because a phase shift, or am litude sh' should be there, given that the alpha rhythm appears to respond to a variety of non-AC tasks. One such example is event-related desynchronization (ERD). Spontaneous EEG reveals short-lasting, task- or event-re- lated amplitude changes in rhythmic activity within the alpha band. This amplitude change, or desynch- ronization, is one of the elementary phenomena in EEG. It was first described in 1930 by Berger20 in scalp EEG as alpha blocking, and was later termed ERD by 1?furtscheller and Aranibar.21 ERDs can be quantified as a function of time and can then be used to study cortical activation patterns during the planning of motor behavior,22 sensory stimulation, and cognitive processes.23,24,25 Kaufman et al. pro- vide a more recent example of cognitive-process-related ERDs?6 They found a significantly shorter ERD when subjects simply responded to a target stimulus, compared with the ERD that occurred when a subject had to search visual memory to determine whether the target matched one previously presented. If we take the historical behavioral AC data as evidence of an anomaly, it would be surprising not to find some form ERD, given we can provide the proper stimulus. 5. Suggested Research Aside from the technical difficulties associated with the Crammer-Rao relationship, all of our earlier attempts to identify CNS correlates to AC did not contain any concomitant behavioral measure of AC; therefore, we have no independent measures that AC functioning occurred in these experiments. Also, the conditions under which experiments were conducted were not similar to those known to be condu- cive to the production of AC data. For example, there is no evidence that a flashing light constitutes a valid AC target. It is also likely that when a receiver is asked to recline face down in a MEG laboratory, that the conditions for the receiver are not optimal. We suggest that new experiments be designed to measure CNS responses to AC stimuli. Since we will not be initially concerned about source localization, we will not immediately require the special properties of a MEG. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000147 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report VII. ENHANCING DETECTION OF AC WITH BINARY ENCODING This section comprises the final report for SOW item 6.233. 1.Objec:tive The objective of this pilot study was to use a two-by-five error correcting block code to improve the detection of AC. 2. Background AC responses usually are narrative descriptions, which have been difficult to quantitatively assess. A number of analysis techniques have been developed to deal with this problem. In one of the earliest techniques, an analyst visited potential target sites and ranked them from best to worst match for each AC response. The analyst had to determine subjectively the boundaries of the target and the elements that were to be included in the analysis.6 During the next phase of the development, the target and the response were reduced to their individual conceptual attributes. The analyst then had to compare lists of discrete attributes; one defining the re- sponse and one each for the potential targets. This all-or-nothing binary determination proved to be inappropriate for an inherently imprecise situation.27?28 Fuzzy sets were then used to allow a gradation of judgment in defining specific elements of content with- in both the target and the response. This method, however, proved to be labor intensive and did not significantly improve the stability and reliability of AC analysis.7 This pilot experiment was designed to explore the potential for maximizing the reliability of AC re- sponses through objective and rapid analysis. We have reverted to using a dichotomous binary proce- dure as opposed to a fuzzy set technique. By carefully selecting the dichotomous elements and by using standard block coding techniques to incorporate all single and a few double error corrections, the earli- er problem of all-or-nothing binary determinism might be reduced. A message sending motif was used as a test-bed for this kind of analysis. 3. Approach This pilot experiment was similar to a traditional AC experiment: a target was selected randomly; a re- ceiver was asked to describe information that was not available to currently known sensorial channels; and a quantitative assessment of the match between the target and the AC response was made. It differs only in the construction of the target pool and in the quantitative analysis. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002900014% Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report 3.3 Receiver Selection Five receivers were selected to participate in this experiment on the basis of their significant results from previous AC experiments. 3.4 Protocol 3.4.1 Number of Trials The five receivers contributed eight trials each. 3.4.2 Trial Protocol Before the experiment began each receiver was provided with instructions and a list of dates on which targets were to be at a prearranged location in the Menlo Park laboratory. The following steps were performed for each trial: (1) The PI used a pseudo random number generator to select a photograph (i.e., a binary number) from the target pool and placed the photograph in a previously agreed upon location. This target re- mained in the designated location for one week for the convenience of the receiver. Receivers had access to the target, by AC methods only, at any point during this time period, since no senders or session monitors were involved in this study. (2) Receivers were to find a quiet place in their homes to work with pen and paper. For a period lasting no longer than 15 minutes, each receiver was to write and draw his/her impressions of the target. (3) The responses were sent by facsimile to the PI. (4) The PI sent back a sheet of five questions about the target, which could be answered by "yes" or "no." These questions pertained to the five target attributes for the target pack from which the designated target was chosen (e.g., Does the target contain triangles?). (5) The answers were sent back to the PI for analysis. Upon receipt, the PI provided a copy of the target photograph as feedback. (6) This procedure was repeated until eight trials were obtained from each receiver. 3.4.3 Analysis At the end of the experiment, the PI removed the name, date, and time from each response; randomized the order of the responses; and provided an analyst with the responses and associated target packs. The in- tended target was not disclosed. Three different methods of analysis were used in this experiment ? Rank ordering ? Number decoding (analyst) ? Number decoding (receiver) Rank-Ordering Traditional rank-ordering was the first method of analysis. When a target was chosen from one of the target sets, the remaining three targets were considered "decoy" targets for an analyst. For each trial, an analyst was given the AC response and the target pack (i.e., four targets) from which the actual target was chosen. The analyst was required to rank order the targets within the designated pack from best to least match to the response, regardless of the quality of the matches. The rank that was assigned to the intended target represented the value of the dependent variable for the trial. A sum-of-ranks was then computed for all trials for each receiver. Effect sizes and p -values were determined from the known sum-of-ranks distribution. This method was used to determine the level of AC functioning for each Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000116 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report Receiver ID ER p-value Effect Size 009 21 2.625 0.6797 -0.1118 083 25 3.125 0.9597 -0.5590 372 20 2.500 0.5617 0 389 19 2.375 0.4383 0.1118 454 18 2.250 0.3203 0.2236 In addition, the number of direct hits (i.e., first place ranks) were computed for each receiver and the binomial distribution was used to compute p-values and effect sizes from this perspective. In Table 12, h is the number of first place ranks computed for each receiver. Statistics for the Sum-of-Ranks Statistics for First Place Ranks Receiver ID h p-value 009 1 0.900 083 0 1.000 372 2 0:633 389 1 0.900 454 2 0.633 4.2 Number Decoding The number decoding method of analysis was used to test two hypotheses: ? A two-by-five, error correcting block code can be used to improve the detection of AC. ? Receivers who are asked to perform analytical tasks on their own data are not as accurate as an inde- pendent analyst. The results of decoding by the receiver are shown in Table 13. The number of direct hits (i.e., event probability of 0.25) is shown as h. The p-value is computed from the exact binomial distribution. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-V Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report chairs to an image of three geometric shapes, and thus possessed a large target-pool bandwidth. Since receivers were told in advance that the targets could contain absolutely any material, they were unable to censor their internal experiences, which may have resulted in enhanced intrinsic receiver noise (see Section IV.5.3). ? Each encoding bit was linked to only one percept (e.g., the single target element of water). This exag- gerated the importance of the chosen dichotomous elements. For example, if a receiver failed to sense water in the target but managed to sense most other aspects of the target that were not part of the bit structure, then the block coding was not particularly applicable. ? In an AC application, a fundamental imbalance exists in the bit structure. The block coding assumes that binary zero is "assertive." That is, in AC w en water is not m icated in the response, it is equiva- lent to indicating the water is definitely not in the target. In AC experiments, however, unless a re- ceiver specifies explicitly that water is not present, then the presence or absence is indeterminate. Maybe water exists in the target but was not noticed or was unreported by the receiver. Similarly, water may not exist in the target and a non-response is equivalent to an assertive no. These two cases are, of course, indistinguishable. The net effect is to render the block coding invalid. Because of these difficulties, we recommend that the experiment be repeated with the following im- provements: ? Reduce the target-pool bandwidth by using the National Geographic static target pool, which has been successful for many AC experiments. ? Reduce the sensitivity to single block encoding bits by incorporating a number of fuzzy-set elements for each bit. Thus, each bit will not rely upon a single percept, but rather represent classes of-different percepts. We anticipate that these improvements will allow for much stronger AC, and provide a more sensitive test of whether binary error-correcting can be successfully applied to AC detection. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000'% Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report VIII. SUBCONTRACTS Under this current effort we let three subcontracts to address specific items in the SOW. 1. Edinburgh University This section constitutes part of the final report for SOW item We subcontracted to the Psychology Department of Edinburgh University to construct an isolation room, which was designed specifically for Ganzfeld studies. The room is now complete and pilot Ganz- feld trials are being conducted. As part of their statement of work, we specified that the sound attenuation characteristics of the Ganz- feld isolation room must be measured. The Department of Building Engineering and Surveying of Her- iot-Watt University was asked to conduct the appropriate measurements. We find that the room is sufficiently physically isolated from the sender's location and the sound attenu- ations is reasonable for Ganzfeld studies. 2. Psychophysicai Research Laboratories (PRL) This section constitutes the final report for SOW item, the remainder of item, and item Tb assist in our ongoing effort to determine what variables might be important in AC experiments, we subcontracted with Mr. Charles Honorton, the director of PRL, to improve an earlier meta-analysis of the literature pertaining to characteristics of persons who might perform well in AC tasks. Specifically, he found that good novice Ganzfeld performers reported personal experience with natural AC, partici- pated in earlier AMP experiments, were involved with mental disciplines such as meditation, and ten- ded toward the Intuition side of the Sensing/Intuition scale of Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. Honor- ton's complete report can be found in Appendix B. As part of our effort to understand the role of the sender in AC experiments, we asked Mr. Honorton to conduct a meta-analysis of the Ganzfeld literature to determine if there were meaningful differences between Ganzfeld studies with and without a sender. Unfortunately, there were insufficient numbers of Ganzfeld experiments conducted in the clairvoyant mode (i.e., without a sender) to be able to ascer- tain, from the published literature, the sender's role. Appendix C contains Mr. Honorton's detailed meta-analysis of the available literature. Because the results of the meta-analysis proved to be inconclusive, PRL was tasked to design a protocol for a definitive Ganzfeld study to understand the role of the sender in such experiments. That protocol, detailed in Appendix D, superimposes on the standard auto-Ganzfeld procedure an additional 4-state sender condition. That is, the sender is either. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-b57 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report IX. OTHER ACTIVITY 1. Correlations between AC and Geomagnetic Activity This section comprises the final report for SOW item 6.2.23. 1.1 Background Persinger, 'lgrt, Krippner, and others have reported an association between AC performance and in- dices of geomagnetic field (GMF) fluctuations. This work has shown that both anecdotal reports of spontaneous.AC, as well as higher-scoring laboratory AC trials, tend to occur at times of relatively low GMF activity. The published evidence is not entirely compelling. The anecdotal AC data are contami- nated to an unknown extent with confounding factors of reporting bias, timing errors, and the difficulty of establishing the veracity of such reports post hoc. The retrospective studies of laboratory AC data, while largely free of these problems, have demonstrated only small correlations to GMF indices. There is, however, increasing interest in the possibility of biological effects of small amplitude magnetic field variations. Recent work has shown that melatonin and serotinin levels are modulated by GMF activity both in vivo and in vitro. Other research is exploring the physics of possible mechanisms whereby low- amplitude magnetic field variations could interact with cells. 1.2 Anomalous Cognition Tb investigate the relationship between scores in laboratory AC experiments and GMF fluctuations, we are combining various experimental databases. Currently, we have assembled a database of approximately 1,000 free-response AC trials from several laboratories. There is a very small (Le., 8 = -0.05, p S 0.09) correlation between trial scores and GMF fluctuations in the expected direction in this database. The cor- relation, however, is much larger (i.e., p = -0.40) in those experiments where significant AC was demonstrated. 1.3 Epilepsy We may discover more about the impact of GMF fluctuations on AC performance by research on other behaviors that are modulated by very low frequency magnetic fields. Some literature suggests a connec- tion between idopathic and epileptic seizures and GMF fluctuations. Currently, we have assembled a database of approximately 4,000 seizures and seizure-related mortalities. Preliminary analysis of a sub- set of this database suggests that both seizures and mortalities associated with seizures are weakly cor- related with elevated GMF noise levels. GMF noise might be depressing the melatonin level, resulting in an increased probability of seizure. We have submitted a paper, which describes the results of the GMF/epilepsy investigation, for publication in the British medical journal, The Lancet. This paper may be found in Appendix F. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000416 Tech hipro ad or Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Fil found that dreaming is similar to the waking state. Motor action is mostly inhibited from the brain stem downward; however, the cerebral cortex appears not to "know" this. In this preliminary pilot study, we used the skills developed by LaBerge to teach individuals to lucid dream. Differing from the earlier AC dream studies, our dreamers were instructed to adopt a proactive attitude to seek out and remember the AC target. In this way, we tried to determine the degree to which lucid dreaming can facilitate the reception of AC material. 3.3 Approach 3.3.1 Receiver Selection We used two specialized populations from which we drew receivers for this pilot experiment: (1) Experienced dreamers from LaBerg's research subjects (three receivers) (2) Receivers who have demonstrated significant ability in other AC studies (four receivers) 3.3.2 Target Selection 'Ihrgets were chosen randomly from the standard set of 100 National Geognzphic magazine photographs. 3.3.3 Trial Definition A trial was defined as a successful lucid dream during which the target material was examined and later transcribed in the waking state. 3.3.4 Lucid Dream Protocol All receivers undertook two forms of training in lucid dreaming: (1) They completed a lucid dreaming home-study course developed by the Lucidity Institute, and (2) they attended two weekend seminars, one at the beginning and one at the end of a three-month pilot study. The first seminar, which was held in December, 1991, introduced receivers to lucid dreaming skills and the use of the DreamLight'', a lucid dream induction device. In previous studies, the DreamLight' has been shown to enhance the frequency of lucid dreaming. The DreamLight' consists of a sleep mask equipped with lights and eye movement sensors, which are attached to a small battery-operated computer. When the computer de- tects the eye movements of dreaming (i.e., REM) sleep, it causes the lights in the mask to flash briefly (i.e., either one or two flashes per second). The dreamer frequently incorporates the flashes into the ongoing dream, and thus experiences a cue to indicate that he or she is dreaming. Receivers had access to DreamLights' during the duration of the study. 3.3.5 AC Baseline Measures The three inexperienced receivers from the Lucidity Institute were asked to contribute eight AC trials in a waking state in the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory as an AC baseline series. The targets for these series were chosen at random from the standardized target set. Each trial was conducted as follows: After the receiver and a monitor entered the AC laboratory (i.e., an office with a single desk and two chairs), an assis- tant used a computer random number generator to select a target from the baseline target pool. Both the receiver and the monitor were blind to this specific choice. At a pre-arranged time, the monitor encouraged the receiver to draw and write impressions of the target material, which was located approximately 30 in away. After approximately 15 minutes of casual questioning, the trial ended; the data were copied; the orig- inals were secured; and the actual target was presented as feedback to the receiver. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R0031002909 1-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report Physical Interpretation of Potentials. Classical mechanics and, for the most part, quantum mechanics have treated potentials as convenient mathematical desc dptions for which there are no physical counter- part. Recent amts have shown, however, that a potential can affect a particle even when there is no corresponding force present. If potentials could be made to propagate, then they could be candidates for an energy transfer mechanism for AC. 3. Anomalous Perturbation This section constitutes the final report on SOW item 6.2.5. At the sponsor's request, we provided two receivers to participate in an informal and exploratory anom- alous perturbation experiment. The target system was a special E&M wave device; there was no partic- ular protocol; and we report, in the form of a laboratory anecdote, that a sufficiently large number of unexpected events occurred to suggest that additional and more formal data must be collected. 4. Fuzzy Set Analysis This section constitutes the final report on SOW item 4.1 Background The elements in our fuzzy set representation of our target pool are structured in levels, ranging from the relatively abstract, information poor (such as vertical lines-level 1), to the relative y complex, informa- tion rich (such as churches-level 10). The current system is structured into seven primary and three secondary levels of descriptors; the main intent of this structure is to serve as a heuristic device for guid- ing the analyst into making judicious concrete descriptor assignments based on rather abstract com- mentary. The determmaton as to which descriptors belonged on which level was made after considera- tion of two primary factors: (1) the apparent ability of receivers' to resolve certain features, coupled with (2) the amount of pure information thought to be contained in any given descriptor. Some of these "factor one" determinations were based on observations of analysts and monitors in the course of either analyzing or conducting numerous AC experiments and on subjective lore; some were determined em- pirically from post hoc analyses of receivers' abilities to perceive various descriptor elements in previous experiments. The "factor two" determinations were made primarily by arranging the descriptors such that a descrip- tor at any given level represents the sum of constituent descriptors at lower levels. The world is not a very crisp place and not all of its elements are amenable to hierarchical structuring. Certain violations of the "factor two" rule appear, therefore, throughout the proposed levels. Some of the more glaring violations were largely driven by the "factor one" determinations (i.e., the receivers' abilities to discern certain elements) enumerated above. Thus, the visual information content as described by our fuzzy-set encoding ranges from the specific and detailed for level 10 to the unspecific and abstract for level 1. Please see Appendix A for a complete list of fuzzy set elements and their associated levels. 4.2 Analysis Using the data from the static target set in the target-dependency experiment (see Section IV), we cor- related the post hoc scores and the blind ranks with the content in each of the fuzzy set levels. Figure 19 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000436 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report Blind Ranking Pba Hoc Scores 111111110 8 7 6 5' 4 3 2 1 Fuzzy Set Coding Levels Figure 20. Correlation: Levels of Visual Complexity with Post Hoc Ratings and Blind Rankings for all Post Hoc Scores 4.3 Conclusion Generally, elements that assist in a post hoc analysis are not the same elements that assist in blind rank- . Fuzzy set elements, which are generally image specific, are most sensitive in blind rank analysis, but specific visual elements are best for post hoc. These conclusions are based upon on set of 100 AC trials. It is currently unknown the degree to which they will generalize. 5. Empirical Training Overview This section constitutes the final report on SOW item 6.33.1. The following discussion has been pri- marily provided by Professor D. Bem of the Psychology department of Cornell University. 5.1 Overview We have examined a stimulus-response training method, which has been in use for a number of years.42 Generally, this method assumes that internal visual imagery is a strong source of noise, at least for be- ginning receivers. The training method is highly focused on the structure of the response as an attempt to limit imagery. Not unlike a word association test, a receiver is asked to respond, as quickly as pos- sible, to a stimulus such as the word "target." By refraining from a long introspection time, it is hoped that internal imagery does not have time to interfere with the AC "signal." The training method requires that the structure of the response change as a student advances through a series of discrete stages. The stages represent access to increasing information about the target material. For example, Stage I consists primarily of large scale generalities about a site, such as mountains and cities, whereas Stage VI consists of specific analytic details involving relationships among the response elements. 5.2 Analysis Most of the concepts outlined in this training method have not been individually tested under laboratory conditions. The method, however, has been used "successfully" in that individuals who have been trained by Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000$ Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report 0.50 00 II 0.25 Uu 0.00 Is u--0.25 s~ (5 Blind Ranking Post Hoc Scores - 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Fuzzy Set Coding Levels Figure 20. Correlation: Levels of Visual Complexity with Post Hoc Ratings and Blind Rankings for all Post Hoc Scores 4.3 Conclusion Generally, elements that assist in a post hoc analysis are not the same elements that assist in blind rank- ing. Fuzzy set elements, which are generally image specific, are most sensitive in blind rank analysis, but specific visual elements are best for past hoc. These conclusions are based upon on set of 100 AC trials. It is currently unknown the degree to which they will generalize. 5. Empirical Training Overview This section constitutes the final report on SOW item The following discussion has been pri- marily provided by Professor D. Bem of the Psychology department of Cornell University. 5.1 Overview We have examined a stimulus-response training method, which has been in use for a number of years. 2 Generally, this method assumes that internal visual imagery is a strong source of noise, at least for be- ginning receivers. The training method is highly focused on the structure of the response as an attempt to limit imagery. Not unlike a word association test, a receiver is asked to respond, as quickly as pos- sible, to a stimulus such as the word "target." By refraining from a long introspection time, it is hoped that internal imagery does not have time to interfere with the AC "signal." The training method requires that the structure of the response change as a student advances through a series of discrete stages. The stages represent access to increasing information about the target material. For example, Stage I consists primarily of large scale generalities about a site, such as mountains and cities, whereas Stage VI consists of specific analytic details involving relationships among the response elements. 5.2 Analysts Most of the concepts outlined in this training method have not been individually tested under laboratory conditions. The method, however, has been used "successfully" in that individuals who have been trained by Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290006F.6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report explicitly told that it is not considered undesirable to pass, but it simply reflects a stylistic prefer- ence for ways of communicating. (2) The receiver now generates any adjectives or terms that occur spontaneously. Passes are also allowed. (3) The receiver is now prompted with a set of Semantic Differential Scales-bipolar dimensions- and asked to respond verbally in a stimulus-response fashion. For example, the trainer might say "hot-cold" and the viewer might respond with "warm, cold, stiff, sauna, or pass." In other words, the trainer gives the dimension and the receiver gives any response at all. (4) The receiver may now supply any additional dimension and/or terms that occur to him or her. This is essentially a repeat of step 1, recognizing that step 3 may have promoted new material. (5) The session ends after a number of repeats of steps 1-4 and with a final integration of drawn verbal material. 5.4 Discussion Note that this sequence goes from unstructured to structured responses, with no pressure to use any proce- dure that seems uncomfortable. For example, if the receiver feels distracted by having to use pen and paper, he or she should have the option not to do so; the monitor could tape-record the session, for example. Step 3 is modeled on word association techniques. There are several possibilities for the scales. We could: ? Use our visual fuzzy set elements. ? Select dimensions from previous work on the Semantic Differential. ? Conduct a preliminary study on a subset of targets that are displayed to receivers, and allow the re- ceivers to generate dimensions that are tailored specifically by them for those targets. ? Let each receiver construct his or her own impressionistic vocabulary by serving in a session described above. Then present these individualized dimensions as stimuli in the subsequent AC sessions. The dimension of the presented stimuli should not be confined to physical/visual features of targets but should range widely over affective and impressionistic dimensions as well (e.g., kind-crael, soft-hard, good- bad). The Semantic Differential was originally developed to tap a fective or connotative mI, and factor analyses uncovered three orthoginal dimensions that appear to have cross-cultural universality: (1) An evaluative dimension (e.g., good-bad) (2) An activity dimension (e.g., active passive) (3) A potency dimension (e.g., strong-weak) An effective procedure should use scales from all three factors. It is possible to uses other than those of bipolar dimension. For example,the prompt could be the name of a sensory modality like smell or odor to which a receiver could respond "dank, bakery, acid- ic, or pass." Or the prompt could be mood or emotion and the response could be "sad, tranquil, agitated, or pass." Cross-cultural research reveals that six dimensions of affect appear to be universal: happy, sad, anger, fear, disgust, and surprise. These might be pertinent for some target pools. We have stressed cross-cultural dimensions here to approach AC from the viewpoint of evolution. If some kind of AC is functionally adaptive for the species, what would its properties be? Affective rele- vant information is the most likely to be accessed in AC-related ways, and universal categories of affec- tive description i not have the best chance for transducing such information. In contrast, we speculate that Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000t?6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report with blindsight can make visual discriminations, for example, of form and color, without perceiving the form or color of the stimuli. Blindsight, then, is a compelling example of preconsciou or perhaps extra- conscious processing. Other evidence of preconscious processing can be found by comparing the sensory and perceptual thresholds. The sensory threshold can be determined physiologically by measuring the amplitude of a stimulus that elicits an identifiable signal in a receptor system, for example, a change in the firing rate of a sensory neuron. The perceptual threshold can be defined as that amplitude of the same stimulus that elicits a response indicating that the stimulus has been detected. It is a well-known phenomenon that the sensory and perceptual threshold can differ markedly.46,47 Thus, between the sensory and per- ceptual thresholds, the receiver is processing information that is below the perceptual threshold, that is, preconscious processing. The question of interest here is whether the perceptual threshold can be reduced so that it is closer to the physiological threshold. Several studies suggest conditions under which the perceptual threshold can be lowered to more closely approximate the sensory threshold. For example, changing the emotion- al content of the stimuli or the emotional state of the receiver has been shown to affect the perceptual thresholds for subliminal stimuli.48,49 Essentially, reducing the emotional state of the receiver or ele- vating the emotional content of the stimulus reduces the perceptual threshold. The question can now be refined to ask whether the perceptual threshold can be reduced through training. Couched in terms of signal detection theory, the question can be posed: Can the receiver's threshold be changed through training so that the receiver can detect a signal at a lower signal-to-noise ratio? Here, again, the answer is yes. Detection thresholds have been found to respond to training protocols that use feedback on repeated trials to elevate sensitivity to previously unperceived visual cues.50'51,52 We suggest that the detection threshold be changed through a program of repeated feedback. 6.2 A Suggested Experiment This suggested experiment has a two-fold purpose. The first is to assess the effects of training protocols on the detection thresholds for subliminal visual stimuli. The second is to examine whether those re- ceivers whose thresholds were lowered by training perform better on AC tasks than receivers who have not been through the training. By using threshold-lowering training protocols, we will attempt to in- crease the sensitivity of receivers to subliminal visual stimuli so that following training, stimuli that had been subliminal will be supraliminal. We will then determine whether there is a parallel increase in sen- sitivity to AC stimuli. Specifically, we suggest that receivers first be randomly assigned to a subliminal-training group and a sham-training group. No receiver will be informed of his or her status until both the training and re- mote-viewing portions of the study have been completed. Each receiver in both groups will be shown a series of target images that are presented tachistoscopically for approximately 10 milliseconds, alternating with a 5-second presentation of a masking stimulus. All target images will be below the receiver's detection threshold, that is, they will be subliminal. Interspersed ran- domly among the subliminal stimuli will be an equal number of blank trials in which no target image is pres- ented during the 10-millisecond presentation. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000% Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report X. GLOSSARY Not all the terms defined below are germane to this report, but they are included here for completeness. In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define: ? Anomalous Cognition (AC)-A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are absent. ? Aga-An individual who attempts to influence a target system. ? ?An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC. ? Anomalous Perturbation (AE):-A form of interaction with matter in which all known physical mech- anisms are absent. ? Feedback-After a response has been secured, information about the intended target is displayed to the receiver. ? Monitor- An individual who monitors an AC session to facilitate data collection. ? Protocol--A template for conducting a structured data collection session. ? Receiver- An individual who attempts to perceive and report information about a target. ? Response;-Material that is produced during an AC session in response to the intended target. ? Sender/Beacon-An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended target, acts as a putative transmitter to the receiver. ? Session--A time period during which AC data are collected. ? ~-A given receiver's ability to be particularly successful with a given class of targets (e.g., people as opposed to buildings). ? An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g., person, place, thing, event). ? Target Designation-A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all other possible targets, is identified to the receiver (e.g., geographical coordinates). Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000176 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report REFERENCES 1. D. L. Delanoy, "Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Experimental Findings and Observations," Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 230-246, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 2. C. Watt, "Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Theoretical Considerations," Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 247-263, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 3. C. Honorton, R. E. Berger, M. P. Varvoglis, M. Quant, P. Derr, E. I. Schechter, and D. C. Ferrari, "PSI Communication in the Ganzfeld," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 99-139 (June 1990). 4. C. Honorton and D. C. Ferrari, "`Future Tblling:' A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, pp. 282-308 (December 1989). 5. C. Honorton, "Error Some Place!"Journal of Communication, pp. 103-116, (Winter, 1975). 6. H. E. Puthoff and R. Thrg, "A Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research," Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 329-354, (March, 1976). 7. E. C. May, J. M. Utts, B. S. Humphrey, W. L W. Luke, T J. Frivold, and V V. Trask, `Advanctes in Remote-Viewing Analysis," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 194-228, (September, 1990). 8. E. C. May and Wanda L. W. Luke, "Phenomenological Research and Analysis," SAIC Interim Report Covering 2/91-12191, SAIC Project 01-187-07-406, Menlo Park, CA (February 1992). 9. H. E. Puthoff, "Calculator-Assisted PSI Amplifaction," Research in Parapsychology 1984, pp. 48-54 (1984). 10. M. Ryzl, "A Model of Parapsychological Communication," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 30, pp. 18-30, (1966). 11. H. E. Puthoff, E. C. May, and M. J. Thomson, "Calculator-Assisted PIE Amplification II: Use of the Sequential-Sampling technique as a Variable-Length Majority-Vote Code," Research in Parapsychology 1985, pp. 73-77 (1985). 12. E. C. May, B. S. Humphrey, and G. S. Hubbard, "Electronic System Perturbation Tbchniques," Project 8585, SRI International, Menlo Park, CA, (October 1980). 13. D. I. Radin and E. C. May, "fisting the Intuitive Data Sorting Model with Pseudorandom Number Generators: A Proposed Method," Proceedings of the 29th Annual Convention of the ParapsychologyAssociation, pp. 537-554 (August 1986). 14. T. G. Lewis and W. H. Payne, "Generalized Feedback Shift Register Pseudorandom Number Algorithm," Journal of the Association for Computing Machinery, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 456-468 (July 1973). 15. C. S. Rebert and A. Turner, "EEG Spectrum Analysis Tbchniques Applied to the Problem of Psi Phenomena," Physician's Drug Manual Vol. 4., Nos. 1-8, pp. 82-88 (1974). 16. R. Thrg, E. C. May, H. E. Puthoff, D. Galin, and R. Ornstein, "Sensing of Remote EM Sources (Physiological Correlates)," Final Report, Project 4540, SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (1977). Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000ta6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report 35. R. G. Jahn and B. J. Dunne, Margins of Reality: The Role of Consciousness in the Physical World, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Orlando, FL (1987). 36. R. G. Stanford, "An Experimentally Tbstable Model for Spontaneous PSI Events," Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, Vol, 68, pp. 34-57 (1974). 37. E. C. May, "Intuitive Data Sorting: An Informational Model of Psychoenergetic Functioning," Final Report-Objective E, Tasks 3 and 4, Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (December 1986). 38. S. W. Hawking, A Brief History of Time. From the BIg Bang to Black Holes, Bantam Books, New York, NY (1988). 39. E. C. May and W. L. W. Luke, "Phenomenological Research and Analysis," Final Technical Report, Project 1-187-07-406-10, SAIC, Menlo Park, CA (1992). 40. C. Honorton and D. C. Ferrari, "`Future Tblling:' A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, pp. 282-308 (December 1989). 41. M. Visser, "Raversable Wormholes: Some Simple Examples," Physical Review D, Vol. 39, No. 10, pp. 3182-3184 (May 1989). 42. I. Swann, "Coordinate Remote Viewing," SRI Internationa, Menlo Park, CA (1985). 43. R. Rosenthal and D. B. Rubin, "Summarizing 345 Studies of Interpersonal Expectancy Effects," New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Sciences: Quantitative Assessment of Research Domains, pp. 79-95, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco (1980). 44. O. Poetzl, "The relationship between experimentally induced dream images and indirect vision," Monograph No. 7, Psychological Issues, Vol. 2, pp. 41-120 (1917). 45. L. Weisdrantz, Blindsight: A Case Study and Implications, Clarendon Press, Oxford (1986). 46. E. Gellhorn "Physiological processes related to consciousness and perception," Brain, Vol. 77, pp. 401-415 (1954). 47. B. Libet, W. W. Alberts, E. W. Wright, and B. Feinstein, "Responses of the human somatosensory cortex to stimuli below the threshold for conscious sensation," Science, Vol. 158, pp. 1597-1600 (1967). 48. N. F. Dixon and T. E. Lear "Perceptual regulation and mental disorder," Journal of Mental Science, Vol. 108, pp. 356-361 (1962). 49. P. Tyner, P. Lewis, and I. Lee, "Effects of subliminal and supraliminal stress on symptoms of anxiety," Journal of Nervous and Mental Disorders, Vol. 166, pp. 611-622 (1978). 50. B. Bridgeman and D. Staggs "Plasticity in human blindsight," Vision Research, Vol. 22, pp. 1199-1203 (1982). 51. J. 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Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000ti6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 :CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report APPENDIX A Target Elements for the Fuzzy Set Representation of AC Targets Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290007P6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Fuzzy Set Attributes ano Levels Attribute Description Level 1 Fort 10 2 Castle 10 3 Palace 10 4 Church, Religious 10 5 Mosque 10 6 Pagoda 10 7 Coliseum, Stadium, Arena 10 8 Bridge 9 9 Dam, Lock, Spillway 9 10 Boats, Barges 9 11 Pier, Jetty 9 12 Motorized Vehicles 9 13 Column 9 14 Spire, Minaret, Tower 9 15 Fountain 9 16 Fence 9 17 Arch 9 18 Wall 9 19 Monument 9 20 Roads 8 21 Port, Harbor 7 22 Oasis 7 23 Agricultural Fields 7 24 Industrial 7 25 Recreational 7 26 Religious 7 27 Mechanical 7 28 Technical 7 29 Agricultural 7 30 Commercial 7 31 Wilderness 7 32 Urban 7 33 Rural, Pastoral 7 131 Historical/Archaeological 7 34 Ruins, Incomplete Buildings 6 1 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Fuzzy Set Attributes and Levels (continued) Attribute Description Level 70 Grey 4 71 Shiny, Reflective 4 72 Gold 4 73 Silver 4 74 Chrome 4 75 Copper 4 76 Obscured, Fuzzy, Dim, Smoky 4 77 Cloudy, Foggy, Misty 4 78 Old 4 79 Weathered, Eroded, Incomplete 4 80 Smooth 4 81 Fuzzy 4 82 Grainy, Sandy, Crumbly 4 83 Rocky, Ragged, Rubbled, Rough 4 84 Striated 4 85 Hot 4 86 Cold, Snow, Ice 4 87 Humid 4 88 Dry, Arid 4 89 Flowing 4 90 Other Implied Movement 4 91 Congested, Cluttered, Busy 4 92 Serene, Peaceful, Unhurried 4 93 Closed In, Claustrophobic 4 94 Open, Spacious, Vast 4 95 Ordered, aligned 4 96 Disordered, Jumbled, Unaligned 4 97 Buildings, Structures 3 98 Rise, Vertical Rise, Slope 3 99 Flat 3 100 Light/Dark Areas 3 101 Boundaries 3 102 Land/Water Interface 3 103 Land/Sky Interface 3 104 Single Predominant Feature 3 3 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report APPENDIX B The Ganzfeld Novice: Four Predictors of Initial ESP Performance Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000178 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 The Ganzfeld Novice: Four Predictors of Initial ESP Performance Charles Honorton University of Edinburgh Abstract: This report updates earlier studies examining characteristics of sssful novice ganzfeld participants. A new study comprising Novice Series 103-105 in the PRL automated ganzfeld study (Honorton, Berger, Varvoglis, Quant, Derr, Schechter, & Ferrari, 1990) is compared with a previous PRL study (Honorton & Schechter, 1987) and an independent study reported by the FRNM research team (Broughton, Kanthamani, & Khilji, in press). ESP ganzfeld performance is examined in relation to four predictors: reported personal psi experiences, Myers-Briggs Feeling/Perception, prior (nonganzfeld) psi testing, and involvement with mental disciplines such as rneditiation. CPYRGHT One of the goals of the PRL automated ganzfeld research was to identify characteristics associated with successful ESP ganzfeld performance by previously inexperienced participants (novices). Two hundred and six participants each contributed to one of five novice series in the PRL automated ganzfeld project. (See Honorton, Berger, Varvoglis, Quant, Derr, Schechter, & Ferrari [1990] for details of experimental procedures and overall results.) Most participants completed Form F of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI; Briggs & Myers, 1957) and a 55-item demo- graphic survey (Participant Information Form, PIF). Three previous reports have already described aspects of the PRL-novice research. The relation- ship between novice ESP ganzfeld performance and extraversion was presented by Honorton, Ferrari, & Bem (in press). Schlitz & Honorton (1992) described a subset of the PRL novice data involving performing artists from The Juilliard School. At the 1986 PA Convention, Honorton and Schechter (1987) presented an exploratory analysis of performance correlates for the first two PRL novice series (Series 101-102; hereafter designated PRL-1), suggesting that initial ganzfeld ESP performance was positively and significantly related to self-reports of personal psi experiences, Feeling/Perception (FP) preferences on the MBTI, and prior participation in nonganzfeld psi experiments. A positive but nonsignificant tendency for better performance among partici- pants reporting involvement with mental disciplines such as meditation was also found. Broughton, Kanthamani, & Khilji (in press) successfully replicated the ESP/FP finding in an independent study at FRNM. In this paper, the PRL-1 findings will be compared with those in' the later PRL novices series (Series 103-105; hereafter designated PRL-2) and the FRNM series to estimate the overall magnitude and consistency of the four predictors. Following presentation of the Honorton & Schechter report, an effort was made to obtain Myers-Briggs data from PRL-1 participants who had not originally taken the MBTI, and ten participants kindly cooperated. Their data are included in the PRL-1 totals in this report. The PRL-1 findings summarized in this paper also reflect corrections for a number of data entry errors in the Honorton & Schechter (1987) report that were discovered during a data audit of the entire PRL automated ganzfeld database prior to publication of Honorton, et al., (1990). The PRL novices included 121 women and 85 men (total N = 206). PIF data was available for 195 and MBTI data was available for 190 subjects. As can be seen from Table 1, these participants Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 CPYRGHT 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Effect Size (d) 0.2 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 Figure 1. Ganzfeld Performance in Relation to Reported Psi Experiences Number of Types of Psi Experiences Reported 0.75, h = .08, 95% Cl from 21% to 36%). The three studies combined yield a success rate of 31% (N=326,p =.012,z=2.25,h=.13,95%CI from 26% to 36%). The effect sizes of the three studies are quite consistent (x2 = 2.39, 2 df, p = .30). Reported Personal Psi Experiences Following standard definitions of the four basic psi types, PIP item 14 asks "If you have had experiences which you thought involved psi, which of the following do you feel you have expe- rienced (please check)." One point was given for each of the checked items (telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition, psychokinesis) and their sum constituted the psi experiences predictor. Honorton and Schechter (1987) found a sig- nificant positive correlation between the number of types of psi experiences and psi ganzfeld Table 3. Ganzfeld Psi Performance in Relation to An Alternate Measure of Reported Psi Experiences Personal Psi Experiences? N Trials % Hits Effect Size (h) PRL-1 14 55 -.27 -1.11 .867 "None" PRL-2 29 66 .08 -0.14 .555 FRNM 29 54 .10 0.19 .426 11 41 .01 -0.28 .61 PRL-1 84 33 24 43 .18 1.61 .054 "Some" PRL-2 97 36 27 45 .24 2.33 .010 FRNM 91 31 22 40 .13 1.14 .126 Combined 272 33 28 39 .19 2.96 .0015 Difference in proportions ("None" vs. "Some") 0.85 .197 Table now. Pucem hits and confidence estimates arc rounded to neatest percattage pO1nt. Combined effect sizes and Stouffer's za ate weighted by study sample sizes. Cartfidence intervals for subsets with N 5.30 ate based on Blyth & Still (1983). NonelSome diffetetoe is based on a z-test for binomial usingdbind sun le size weighted) estimates for each group. Approve`-"or Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 CPYRGHT them had not been previously involved in formal psi research of any kind, approximately 16% of the PRL novices and 13% of FRNM novices had participated in other types of psi research. In PRL- 1 a hit rate of 50% was achieved by novices who had previously participated in other, nonganzfeld, psi experiments (N = 20, p = .014, z = 2.20, h = .52), while only 26% of those with no prior psi testing experience had hits (N = 72, 19 hits and 53 misses, p = .437, z = 0.16, h = .03). The distribu- tion of hits and misses in relation to prior testing was significant: Overall-adjusted Fisher exact test (p = .024, phi = .2 1). In PRL-2, 67% of those with previous testing experience had hits (N = 12, p = .0028, z = 2.77, h = .86) as did 32% of subjects with no prior testing history (N = 92, p = .095, z = 1.31, h = .15). The Overall-adjusted Fisher test of the distribution of hits and misses was significant (p = .02, phi = .23). This effect was not replicated in the FRNM study, which showed a slight reversal of the trend: hits were obtained-by 29% of subjects with prior testing (N = 14, p = .479, z = 1.05, It = .08) and by 31% of those with no prior testing (N = 94, p = .118, z = 1.18, h = .13); Overall-adjusted Fisher p = .543 (phi = -.01). The overall effect of prior testing is significant, though clearly further research will be needed to assess the cross-labora- tory generality of this finding. (See Table 4.) The mean weighted phi is .14 (95% CI from .02 to .25). Myers-Briggs Feeling-Perception Following MBTI convention, participants were classified as, if their continuous scores on the TF and JP Scales were both above 100. A recent reevaluation of the MBTI in terms of the five- factor model of personality (McCrae & Costa, 1989) indicates that the MBTI TF Scale correlates positively with Agreeableness. JP correlates negatively with Conscientiousness (i.e., orderli- ness) and positively with Openness to Experience. In PRL-1, 50% of the MBTI FP participants obtained hits (p = .00057, z = 3.25, h = .52) com- pared to 18% of those classified non-FP (N = 44, p =.892, z = -1.24, h = -.17). The Overall-adjusted Fisher exact p = .001 (phi = .34). In PRL-2, the FP success rate was 36% (N = 44, p = .075, z = 1.44, h = .23) and 35% of the nonFP subjects were successful (N = 60, p = .054, z = 1.61, h = .22). The Overall-adjusted Fisher exact p = .472 (phi = .01). In the FRNM series, 40% of the FP subjects had hits (N = 42, p = .02, z = 2.06, h = .33), compared to 25% for thenonFPsubjects (N=60,p=.5,z= 0.00, h = .00). The Overall-adjusted Fisher exact p _ .0499 (phi = .16). Table 5 summarizes the results across all three studies. The FP subjects show significant performance (N = 127, p = .000064, z = 3.83, h = .38). The 95% conf-deuce interval for the mean success rate of 42% is from 34% to 49%. NonFP show nonsignificant overall performance, with a hit rate of 27% (N = 164, p = .33, z = 0.44, h = .035); the 95% CI is from 20% to 34%. The differ- ence in overall success rates between FP and nonFP subjects is also significant (z = 2.69, p = .0036). Using meta-analytic techniques for com- bining correlations (Hedges and Olkin, 1985), the Table 5. MBTI Feeling/Perception (FP) FP? Study From To Effect size (h) z PRL-1 40 50 37 64 .52 3.25 .00057 PRL-2 45 36 23 48 .23 1.44 .075 FRNM 42 40 27 54 .33 2.06 127 42 34 49 .38 3.83 .000064 PRL-1 44 18 5 31 -.17 -1.24 .892 No PRL-2 60 35 24 46 .22 1.61 .054 FRNM 60 25 14 36 .00 0.00 .500 Combined 164 27 20 34 .035 0.44 .33 Difference in proportions (Combined FP vs No FP) 2.69 .003E Table notes. Peec;ent hits and confidence estimates are rounded w nearest pesomuage point Combined effect sizes and Stouffc's zs are weighted by study 5 e sizes. FP/no FP difference is based on a z-= for binomial proportions using the combined (sample size weighted) estimates for each group. le For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 CPYRGHT Psi+FP+Mental Disciplines? Study N 9o Hits From To Effect Size (h) z p PRL-1 49 18 6 31 -.16 -1.26 .895 No PRL-2 67 37 27 48 .27 2.12 .017 FRNM 74 27 17 37 .05 0.29 .386 Combined 190 28 20 38 .07 0.92 .179 PRL-1 34 56 41 70 .64 3.67 .00012 Yes PRL-2 37 32 19 46 .17 0.86 .194 FRNM 28 43 26 62 .38 1.89 .029 Combined 99 43 35 52 .39 3.64 .00014 Difference (Combined Yes vs. No) 2.64 .0041 Table notes. Percent hits and confidence estimates are rounded to nearest percentage point. Combined effect sizes and Stouffer s zs are weighted by study sample sizes. Confidence intervals for subsets with N:5.30 are based on Blyth & Still (1983). Yes/No difference is basal on a z-teat for binomial proportions using the combined (sample size weighted) estimates for each group. r prior psi testing experience, only 15 participants satisfied the four-predictor model (reported psi experiences, FP, mental disciplines, and prior testing) in the three studies. Nevertheless, the results are rather striking. In PRL-1 hits were obtained by six of the seven participants satisfying all four factors (p = .0013, z = 3.00, h = 1.32). Three out of four were successful in PRL-2 (p =.0508, z = 1.64, h = 1.05). In the FRNM series, hits were obtained by two of the four participants satisfying all four factors. Combining across the three studies, 11 of the 15 participants correctly identified their targets (73% hits, weighted z = 3.35, p = .00041). The overall effect size (h weighted by sample size) is = 1.03. The Three-Predictor Model Due to the extremely small number of cases satisfying the four-predictor model, Honorton & Schechter (1987) and Broughton, et al., (in press) focused on a three-factor model, excluding prior psi testing. Combining the three studies, 99 participants satisfied the three-predictor model (reported psi experiences, FP, and involvement with a success rate of 32% for those satisfying the model (N = 37, p = .194, z = 0.86, 95% CI from 19% to 46%) and a 37% success rate for those who did not satisfy it (N = 67, p = .017, z = 2.12, h = .27, 95% CI from 27% to 48%). In the FRNM study, 28 participants satisfied the model with a success rate of 43% (p = .029, z = 1.89, h = .38, 95% CI from 26% to 62%). A success rate of 27% was obtained by the 74 FRNM participants who did not satisfy the model (p = .386, z = 0.29, h = .07, 95% CI from 17% to 37%). Table 7 summarizes the results of all three studies. Overall, the three-factor model appears to show some promise. Altogether 99 novice participants in three studies satisfied the three- predictor model, with an overall success rate of 43% (z = 3.64, p = .00014, h = .39, 95% Cl from 35% to 52%). The 191 participants not satisfying the model obtained a success rate of 28% (z = 0.92, p = .179, h = .07, 95% CI from 20% to 38%). The difference between the two groups is significant (z = 2.64, p = .0041) and the phi coefficient is .15. with mental disciplines). In PRL-1, 34 participants Discussion satisfied the three-factor model. They achieved a success rate of 56% (p = .00012, z = 3.67, h = .64) While none of the predictors individually and the 95% CI is from 41% to 70%. An 18% differentiated successful versus unsuccessful success rate was obtained by the 49 PRL-1 performance in each of the three studies, participants not satisfying the three-factor model, significant hitting across all three studies was but for whom data on all three factors is available limited to participants meeting the criteria for each (p = .895, z = -1.26, h = -.16, 95% Cl from 6% to of the individual predictors. From a purely 31%). This pattern was slightly reversed in PRL-2 pragmatic point of view, if we were advising new Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report APPENDIX C Impact of the Sender In Ganzfeld Communication: Meta-Analysis and Power Estimates Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-91 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Impact of the Sender in Ganzfeld Communication: Meta-Analysis and Power Estimates Charles Honorton Psychophysical Research Laboratories and The University of Edinburgh Abstract: This report provides a quantitative review of all available studies of information retrieval via real-time ganzfeld imaging techniques reported in the English-language parapsychological literature between 1974-1991. The review estimates the magnitude of the effect overall and as a function of target presentation conditions (presence or absence of a target observer or sender). The resulting estimates are used in a statistical power analysis to determine optimal sample sizes for maximising successful detection of ganzfeld communication in new studies. CPYRGHT Keywords: Ganzfeld, meta-analysis, parapsychology, power analysis. Description of the Domain In the early 1970s a number of investigators were led independently to explore the effects of a perceptual isolation technique (ganzfeld stimulation) on performance in anomalous communication tasks (Braud, Wood, & Braud, 1975; Honorton & Harper, 1974; Parker, 1975). The impetus for this research involved converging evidence that anomalous communication effects were frequently associated with internal attention. states characterised by reduced perceptual processing (see Honorton, 1977). A homogeneous visual field (ganzfeld) is produced through diffusion of a bright light source over translucent hemispheres covering the receiver's eyes. Homogeneous auditory stimulation is produced by white noise through headphones. The receiver usually undergoes relaxation exercises at the beginning of the session, then free-as- sociates to describe a randomly selected and remotely located features of its target nt ly is viewed by a sender who attempts to communicate salient meaning to the receiver; in studies without a sender, the target is enclosed in an opaque container. Assessment typically involves blind-ranking or rating similarities between the receiver's ganzfeld-produced imagery and a pool including the target and several decoys. The Standard Analysis Method In the prototypical ganzfeld imaging study, receivers attempt to identify the target by ranking perceived similarities between their ganzfeld generated imagery and a judging task is "double-blind," pool consisting of the target and several decoys. This judging such that neither receiver nor experimenter knows the identity of the correct target. Success is defined in terms of the binomial probability associated with the proportion of Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 : Approved For Release 2001103107 CI i~tegc~n iQ~~ 2~ R OQ31-6 CPYRGHT Table 1. Overall Results 95% confidence interval All studies N studies 73 N investi- gators 21 Median sample size 32 Mean effect size 0.16 From .06 To .26 5.74 4.75x10-' Fail- Safe Ratio 11 to 1 Direct hits studies 53 16 30 0.23 .13 .33 6.75 7.43x10-12 16 to 1 Results Overall Effect A total of 73 studies were retrieved. These studies were conducted by 21 independent research teams and involve 4,155 trials contributed by 1,762 subjects. Table 1 summarizes the overall ganzfeld study outcomes. The combined z-score is 5.74 (p = 4.75 x 10-9). Rosenthal's (1991) `Fail-Safe N' estimate indicates reduce that ~the ovete~lyl 11 unreported studies averaging null outcomes would be required q significance of the retrieved studies to p=.05. The meant effect 2 %1s' the standard = .16 (95% CI .06/.26). The mean effect size is equivalent to a success choice situation. The last row of Table 1 gives Tthe hese same contributed by 16 subset of studies involving analysis by direct hits. 'Fail- 7.43 x 10-12). The `Fail- independent research teams and the combined z = 6.75, (p = Safe' estimate indicates that approximately 16 unretrieved studies averaging null outcomes would be required to jeopardise thc. significance of this subset. The mean Table 2. Statistical Power Analysis for Overall Results Power Estimate (using average ES & sample size) Expected N Studies Significant at p = .05, given power estimate Observed N Studies significant Z(Observed vs. Expected) All Studies Studies 0.35 p(Z) Approve or Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/071. aCctAfR[P96 0(7~AAM2Q09-6 CPYRGHT Table 3. Studies with and without Senders 95% confidence interval N N Median studies investi- sample gators size Mean effect size 6x10-9 No Sender 12 7 33.5 0.10 -.10 .30 1.31 .095 1.49 .137 Fail- Safe Ratio with and without senders (Tukey, 1977). A statistical summary is provided in Table 3. Senders were employed in 61 studies (3,684 trials) by 20 independent investigators. The combined z-score is 5.70 (p=7x10-9). Rosenthal's 'Fail-Safe ~outcomes timate be required to approximately 11 unreported studies averaging null reduce the overall significance of the retrieved studies to The situation and the 95% .17 is equivalent to a success rate of 32.5% in the typical 4-choice CI = .07/.27, i.e., 28%/37%. The remaining 12 studies (470 trials) did not employ senders. These studies, contributed by seven independent investigators, have a the combined ed without senders ~ow. The mean effect size is .10 (95% CI = -.10/.30). Thus, tno overall evidence for anomalous communication. Transforming the mean effect sizes for studies with and without senders back to proportion of hits, the difference between the two conditions was tested using the z test for differences between binomial proportions. The resulting z of 1.49 is nonsignificant (p = .137 1, two-tailed). The effect size for the difference is .023. While this difference ganzfels not significant, only the studies with senders show a significant communication effect. Since the sender/no sender comparison is between rather erence on systematic within study comparison of sender impact, pathan within ct, the observed diffi.e., not could be due to factors other than the presence or absence of senders. Investigators tend to implement experimental procedures in various ways, sample from different populations (e.g., students, volunteers), employ various instructional sets, and use a variety of different target stimuli. Such variations could conceivably account for the observed differences. To assess this possibility, an analysis was performed on the subset of five investigators who contributed both studies with senders base, 40% of the total numbers subset comprises only about 20% of the investigator b, of trials (N = 1,666). These investigators reported 25 studies with senders (N = 1,497, Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 ~n 6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDPU-00MAN Impact of the e r in 't~~- CPYRGHT studies were not designed to systematically assess sender versus no sender conditions, the meta-analysis cannot address the underlying source of this difference. tNoe studies, assess the specifically designed to compare sender/no sender effects, extent to which the sender's influence is instrumental (intrinsic to the communication process) or peripheral (based on psychological or motivational factors). I/a, References Braud, W. G., Wood, R., & Braud, L. W. (1975). Free-response GESP performance during an experimental hypnagogic state induced by visual and acoustic ganzfeld techniques. A replication and extension. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 69, 105-113. Cohen, J. (1977). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (rev. ed.). New York: Academic Press. Honorton, C. (1975). Objective determination of information rate in psi tasks with pictorial stimuli. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 69, 353- 359. Honorton, C. (1977). Psi and internal attention states. In B. B. Wolman (Ed.), Handbook of parapsychology. NY: Van Nostrand Reinhold. (pp. 435-472). Honorton, C., & Harper, S. (1974). Psi-mediated imagery and ideation in an experimental procedure for regulating perceptual input. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 68, 156-168. Parker, A. (1975). Some findings relevant to the change int to hypothesis. In J. D. Morris, W. G. Roll, & R. L. Morris (Eds.) Research in Parapsychology, Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. (pp. 40-42). Rosenthal, R. (1991). Meta-analytic procedures for social research (rev. ed.). Newbury Park: Sage. Solfvin, G. F., Kelly, E. F., & Burdick, D. S. (1978). Some new methods of analysis for preferential-ranking data. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 72,93-110. Stanford, R. G., & Sargent, C. L. (1983). Z scores in free-response methodology: .Comments on their utility and correction of an error. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 77, 319-326. Tukey, J. W. (1977). Exploratory data analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA Q@ ~QQ,2&aoo ~-6 inwal CPYRGHT Honorton, C., Berger, R. E., Varvoglis, M. P., Quant, M., Derr, P., Schechter, E. I., & Ferrari, D. C. (1990). Psi communication in the ganzfeld: tmExperiments with eta-analysis of earlier studies automated testing system and a comparison with a Journal of Parapsychology, 54, 99-139. & Harper, S. (1974). Psi-mediated imagery and ideation in an Honorton, C., experimental procedure for regulating perceptual input. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 68, 156-168. E. (1988-89). Why the ganzfeld Houtkooper, J. M., Gissurarson, L. R., & Haraldsson, is conducive to ESP: a study of observational theory and the participant-order effect. European Journal of Parapsychology, 7, 169-192. Kanthamani, H., & Khilji, A. (1990). An experiment in ganzfeld and dreams: a confirmatory study. Proceedings of Presented Papers of the 33rd Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association, 126-137. Kanthaniani, H., Khilji, A., & Rustomji-Kerns, R. (1989). An experiment in ganzfeld and dreams with a clairvoyance technique. In L. Henkel & J. Palmer ?), Research in Parapsychology, 1988. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. (pp. Keane, P., & Wells, R. (1979). An examination of the menstrual cycle as a hormone related physiological concomitant of psi performance. In W. G. Roll (Ed.), Research in Parapsychology, 1978. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. (pp. 72-74.) Milton, J. (1986). Displacement effects, role of the agent, and mentato in relation to ESP performance. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University Edinburgh. Munson, R. J., Kanthamani, H., Khilji, A., & Zingrone, N. L. (1988). FRNM ganzfeld: an attempted replication. In L. A. Hinkel & R. E. Berger (Eds.), Research in Parapsychology, 1987. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press (pp. 44-47.) S. A. (1988). Ganzfeld psi Murre, J. M., van Dalen, A. C., Dias, L. R., & Schouten, 103-126. experiments with a control condition. Journal of Parapsychology, 52, Palmer, J., & Aued, I. (1975). An ESP test with psychometric orris objects and the Research gan l : negative findings. In J. D. Morris, W. G. Roll, & R. 50-53). Parapsychology, 1974. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press (pp. Palmer, J., Bogart, D. N., Jones, S. M., & Tart, C. T. (1977). Scoring patterns in an ESP ganzfeld experiment. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 71, 121-145. Palmer, J., & Kanthamani, H. (1990). A ganzfeld experiment with subliminal sending. Proceedings of Presented Papers of the 33rd Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association, 227-242. Approved or Release Approved For Release 2001/03/07w:: C'A-RP 6j08788 PP c~i~ 0411-6 Inact Smith, M., Tremmel, L., & Honorton, C. (1976). A comparison of psi and weak sensory influences on ganzfeld mentation. In J. D. Morris, W. G. Roll, & R. L. Morris (Eds.) Research in Parapsychology, 1975, Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press (pp. 191-194.) Sondow, N. (1979). Effects of associations and feedback on psi in the ganzfeld: is there more than meets the judge's eye? Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 73, 123-150. Sondow, N. (1987). Exploring hypnotizability, creativity, and psi: conscious and unconscious components to psi success in the ganzfeld. In D. H. Weiner & R. D. Nelson (Eds.) Research in Parapsychology, 1986. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. (pp. 42-47.) Sondow, N., Braud, L., & Barker, P. (1981). Target qualities and affect measures in an exploratory psi ganzfeld. In W. G. Roll, R. L. Morris, & R. White (Eds.), Research in Parapsychology, 1980. Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press (pp. 82-85). Stanford, R. G. (1979). The influence of auditory ganzfeld characteristics upon free- response ESP performance. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 73, 253-272. Stanford, R. G., & Angelini, R. (1984). Effects of noise and the trait of absorption on ganzfeld ESP performance. Journal of Parapsychology, 48, 85-100. Stanford, R. G., Frank, S., Kass, G., & Skell, S. (1989). Ganzfeld as an ESP-favorable setting: part H. Journal of Parapsychology, 53, 95-124. Stanford, R. G., & Neylon, A. (1975). Experiential factors related to free-response clairvoyance performance in a sensory uniformity setting (ganzfeld). In J. D. Morris, W. G. Roll, & R. L. Morris (Eds.) Research in Parapsychology, 1974, Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press (pp. 89-93.) Terry, J. C. (1976). Comparison of stimulus duration in sensory and psi conditions. In J. D. Morris, W. G. Roll, & R. L. Morris (Eds.) Research in Parapsychology, 1975, Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press (pp. 179-181). Terry, J. C., Tremmel, L., Kelly, M., Harper, S., & Barker, P. (1976). Psi information rate in guessing and receiver optimization. In J. D. Morris, W. G. Roll, & R. L. Morris (Eds.) Research in Parapsychology, 1975, Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press (pp. 194-198.) Terry, J. C., & Honorton, C. (1976). Psi information retrieval in the ganzfeld: two confirmatory studies. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 70, 207-217. Wood, R., Kirk, J., & Braud, W. (1977). Free response GESP performance following ganzfeld stimulation vs. induced relaxation, with verbalized vs. nonverbalized mentati i~ a fa 'lure to replicate. European Journal of Parapsychology, 1, 80-93. Approves For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Technical Final Report APPENDIX D Effects of the Sender on Anomalous Communication In the Ganzfeld Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R00310029000BP-6 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Effects of the Sender on Anomalous Communication in the Ganzfeld Research Protocol Charles Honorton Psychophysical Research Laboratories and the University of Edinburgh Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 CPYRGH-Oproved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00788gWdPP 01-? both visual and auditory components, enabling comparison of four conditions: Video+audio ("Full target") components presented to sender, Video only, Audio only, neither component ("Null sender" condition). The specific condition for a given session is randomly selected and unknown to either experimenter or subject until the end of the session. (See Figure 1.) Figure 1. Study Design NOVICE SERIES Previously inexperienced subjects 1 session each following complet ion of personality and demo- graphic questionnaires Assess predictors Serves as screening device for sender comparison study Four series, 50 subjects each SENDER COMPARISON STUDY 25 subject selected from best of Novices Each subject contributes 2 sessions in each condition: Sender exposed to full target Sender exposed to video Sender exposed to audio Sender blind to target (null sender condition) Video Ganzfeld System The video ganzfeld system is a second-generation hardware/software control system for the study of anomalous communication in the ganzfeld. It is essentially an updated version of 'the PRL automated ganzfeld system (Honorton, et al., 1990), providing automated computer control of major aspects of the ganzfeld session, including: ? Random selection of the target in novice series ? Random selection of sender condition in sender comparison series ? Automated VCR control and presentation of the target (or target element) to the sender during sending periods ? Presentation of judging pool (target and decoys) to receiver (subject) and experimenter during the post-session blind judging procedure ? Presentation of judging rating scales and registration of blind-judging responses ? Data recording and storage ? Automated presentation of subject feedback following blind judging and data recording The system also includes modules controlling series design and subject registration which are described below. Hardware System The video ganzfeld system nuts under Microsoft Windows 3.1/DOS 5 on a 33MHz 80386DX bdYp 1 ft6s qu s16s)tffe Maas ? 6Tard y onl'1YtIf !'1M3 11l11pR1~1~wa+.~lvYYrrVrv srvviv v~~-~~v~ vv C ports, an 80387 numeric coprocessor, and a super VGA monitor. e Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-0079Qp01- CPYRGHT Software System The viCeo ganzfeld software runs under Microsoft Windows 3.1. The initial startup sequence requires the experimenter to enter a valid security password. (See Figure 3.) The system automatically terminates if a valid password has not been entered. Figure 3. System Startup Sequence Department of Psychology Koestler Chair of Parapsychology VIDEO GANZFELD SYSTEM Password Enter your password then click 'OK. Series Manager Upon entry of a valid password, the Series Manager is loaded. Series Manager is the central control program. It enables the experimenter to design new experimental series, register new subjects, run experimental sessions, and export data files to database management packages. (See Figure 4.) Figure; 4. Video Ganzfeld Series Manager Series Participants Procedures Analysis 23 D 'Sender's Relationship to Receiver ^ Staff member ^ Friend ^ Relative The Series Manager menu structure is shown in Figure 5. Each of the major menu ApcBnopo%gFsgEARM 1/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 CPYR8HVoved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-0078 OtSW(d2g661-67 The Participant Registration option provides the only v this option , the new participants can enter an experimental series. Chopromptsnhim to enter the experimenter is presented with a dialog box sex, date of subject's name, a unique identification (PIF) number, the participant's and Prior birth, source of recruitment into the study (from standardized on list)routines are testing history. As with the Series Design dialog, data input checking "No used to insure appropriate input and check for contradictions (e.g., The Series Design and prior testing" and one of the other prior testing options). participant Registration dialogs are shown in Figure 6. Figure 6. Dialogs for Series Design and Participant Registration Design New Series Last Name - - First Name Sex 0 Male 0 Female Source of Recruitment Date of Birth IDD-MM-1 I Testing History ^ Eanzfeld ^ Other Free-Response ^ Forced-Choice ^ No Prior Testing Procedures The primary options available on the procedures menu enable the experimenter to run a session and to initiate the blind judging procedure at the end of the session. When the experimenter selects "Run Session" from this menu, Series Manager opens a Session Controller window (Figure 7). Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R003100290001-6 Series Name (Max = 8 char.) Total Number of Trials Max Number of Participants Max Trialsrper Participant Target Display Mode f F- ul~ TarcJ~t `'~' SERIES TYPE () Pilot Q Novice Experienced Q Sender comparison CPYRGF*proved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00782&;Qp< 1Qa99p01s6 random sequences. The receiver is prompted to identify whatever correspondences they perceive between their ganzfeld mentation and each of the four potential targets. The receiver is given the option to view any or all of the elements in the judging pool as many times as desired, then procedes to perform the blind judging task. The program displays a judging scale (Figure 8) on the receiver's monitor for each of the four possible targets in the judging pool. The judging scale shows a brief descriptive name for each target, a thermometer-style rating scale, and three buttons. Using a mini joystick, the receiver rates the degree of perceived similarity between each potential target and their mentation. The scale ranges from 0% to 100% and the current value of the scale is displayed both numerically and graphically as the receiver clicks either the left or right arrow buttons. Figure 8. Video Ganzfeld Judging Scale When the receiver is satisfied with the rating assigned, she or he presses the "OK" button. The judging procedure is repeated for each of the four potential targets in the judging pool. The program checks for tied ratings and prompts the receiver to re-rate in the event of a tie. Once the receiver has rated all of the elements in the judging pool, the program converts the ratings to ranks and stores the ratings and ranks as fields in the session database record. The program calculates a standardized rating (z-score) based on the difference between the rating assigned to the correct target and the mean of the "three decoy ratings divided by the standard deviation of of all four ratings (Stanford & Sargent, 1983). The program times the duration of the judging procedure from initial presentation of the four judging pool elements to completion and adds it to the session database record. Approves ~$?~~1}$0'f'~~?0 ~P-rtb current session," "Session log," and "Check System." The abort session option is CPYRAproved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-007ffl ~P9Ag991001tq ? Identification of elements of target environments that may be especially amenable to retrieval via anomalous communication. Recently, major advances have been made with regard to certain aspects of this problem as it specifically applies to remote viewing studies (May, et al., 1985; 1990). While aspects of May's conceptual schema can also be applied to ganzfeld research, there are two aspects of the latter that call for a somewhat different approach: (1) The standard ganzfeld mentation protocol focuses upon the elicitation of unconstrained spontaneous imagery rather than an explicit focus upon describing the target. (2) The video targets are themselves quite different from those typically used in remote viewing research: They include auditory components (e.g., music, dialogue, narration, sound effects), occasionally major transitions in perspective, highly evocative dramatic and comedic scenes, etc. For these reasons, we have adopted a somewhat different approach, consisting of two distinct aspects: (1) Specific descriptors tailored to the content of the target pools, and (2) generic characteristics derived from environmental psychology. Content-based Descriptors Each target has been coded with respect to Theme, Tone, and Content. Each item is coded Table 1. Content-based Descriptors Nature/wildlife Fantasy/religion/mythology Aggression/battles/warfare/conflict Social interactions Sports/athletics/acrobatics Art/dance/music Places/travel/exploration Cartoons/animation Humor Documentary Action Drama Wonderment/awe Light entertainment People Animals Fantasy/mythical characters Water Rocks/hills/mountains Trees/flowers/foliage Land vehicles/scenes Terrestrial flight scenes Underwater vehicles/scenes Architecture/urban scenes 7 ? t'I b db3100290 01-6 Spac p anets/g ies Music Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00709RW7 2EQ001~S CPYRGHT Predictor Measures Extraversion and Openness to Experience Performance in anomalous communication tasks has been found to correlate with the psychological trait of extraversion in a recent meta-analysis of 15 studies by five independent investigators (Honorton, Ferrari, & Bern, 1990). The mean correlation is small (r = .20) but consistent across investigators, studies, and personality measures. While the meta-analysis provides strong evidence that a relationship exists between anomalous communication and extraversion, it is silent as to the nature of the relationship. Extraversion is commonly associated with sociability (gregariousness), but it is now known that there are at least five other components of extraversion. For this reason, we have chosen the NEO Personality Inventory (Costa & McRae, 1985), an instrument that measues six facets of extraversion. Recent research implicates sensation seeking as an instrumental factor in the ganzfeld experience (Glicksohn, 1991) and we are especially interested in the possibility that it also correlates with performance in anomalous communication tasks. We also will use the NEIO PI Openness scale, and its six facets, because a number of studies have indicated a relationship between anomalous communication and various measures of openness to experience. Table 2dists the six facets of extraversion and openness. Table 2. Facets of Extraversion and Openness 1. Warmth 2. Gregariousness 3. Assertiveness 4. Activity 5. Excitement Seeking 6. Positive Emotions 1. Fantasy 2. Aesthetics 3. Feelings 4. Actions 5. Ideas 6. Values A computer program scores the questionnaire and presents graphic profiles for each of the sir, facets of extraversion and openness. Statistical power analysis (Cohen, 1977) indicates that a sample size of 200 subjects will achieve a 90% likelihood of detecting a correlation of .2 at p