Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
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Document Creation Date: 
November 4, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 3, 2004
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Publication Date: 
January 14, 1991
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PDF icon CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200010-4.pdf85.02 KB
Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00791 R000?3002W-4CL~ Ss r C,(Llt Ij it OT, PROJECT 91002 -=--~ 14 JAN 91 SUMMARY (S/NF/LIMDIS) TASK: Describe key events/incidents significant to the Iraqi situation for the near term period (7-31 Jan 91). 2. (U) PRIOR REPORTING: This is a general follow-up to tasking for project 90104 as reported on 30 Oct 1990 and on 6 Nov 1991 7 J . an 1990. Project 91002 was initiated on 3. (U) RESPONSES: a. (U) SOURCE 025: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 7 Jan 91 (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: (a) Peace Talks: - Peace talks will fail and will resume in the Middle East in the March time frame. (b) War situation: - War will break out in February and last 2-3 months: o US casualties will occur (700-2000), mostly in Kuwait. o Hussein will eventually withdraw from Kuwait. o War will be fast and furious. - By April, Iraq will have a new leader. Some US troops will be in Kuwait through August. b. (U) SOURCE 049: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 12-13 January 1991. (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: (a) War situation: - War outbreak is imminent. Approved For Release 200,rG1R0791 8000200200010-4 Approved For Release 2004/O8i25 `CtARDP96-00791 R000200200010-4 - Great indecision or bewilderment mood exists (on both sides) - There seems to be an older relative of Hussein who may (or should) emerge that is in a position to influence and possibly negate Hussein's stance. - This person (possibly an uncle) was very adept at maneuvering members of Hussein's family, and had great influence on Hussein when he was a teenager. c. (U) SOURCE 079: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 14 January 1991. (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: (a) War Situation: - President Bush- will announce evening of 14 January 1991 that there will not be a war with Iraq. - Hussein agreed to some type of negotiation. - Iraqi-troops will remain ii Kuwait for the near future, but they will eventually be removed within the next 2-3 months. - Some small skirmishes (on water) may occur Us Situation will remain tense. Yemen will be a source of trouble for the (b) Terrorist Attacks: None are perceived (in the US) in the near future. 4. (S/ND/LIMDIS) COMMENTS: a. Of above, source 079 is most experienced. b. This project will be kept current with frequent updates.