ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100530001-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 26, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 12, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
12 September 1986
DI EE186-019
12 September 1986
Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
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Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
2
Unemployment Rate
2
Foreign Trade
3
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
4
Exchange Rate Trends
5
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption _
9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
9
Crude Oil Prices
10
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
2.6
-7.2
5.9
11.6
1.0
0.4
3.5
11.1
4.6
0.7
0.9
4.0
-3.8
-2.3
-3.2
0.3
2.4
4.8
-0.3
11.8
41.0
-2.6
-1.5
1.1
2.5
0.5
-4.9
5.1
31.2
-3.9
2.1
3.9
1.3
4.7
3.2
-2.7
-13.5
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
3rd Qtr
4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr
United States
2.5
-2.1
3.6
6.4
2.7
4.1
2.1 3.8 0.6
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.3
5.0
4.5
2.7
5.8 -2.1 3.6
West Germany
0.2
-1.0
1.5
3.0
2.4
6.8
-0.2 -6.5
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.5
1.4
3.6
2.3 0 4.0
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.4
2.6
3.3
-1.1
1.8 2.9
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
2.8
2.3
1.0
2.3 5.3
3.3
-4.4
3.3
5.0
4.5
7.0
5.4
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.5
1.4
-1.7 0.4
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.0
0
-0.8
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
-0.9
-1.1 -2.6 0.7
France
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
4.5
0.4 0.7
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
6.2
5.0 3.8 5.9
Canada
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
4.0
4.8
3.0 6.8
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr Jun Jul
Japan 3.7 7.1 3.7 2.8 5.0 7.6 9.4 7.0 6.5
West Germany 1.1 3.6 10.2 3.3 4.4 9.8 11.3 21.3 -0.4
France 12.2 13.9 8.7 20.4 1.9 16.4
Based on amounts in national currency units.
Including MI-A and M1-B.
West Germany 5.6 7.7 9.2 9.1 9.3 10.2 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.5
France 7.6 8.4 8.6 9.6 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.4 10.5
United Kingdom 10.0 11.6 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7
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1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
217.6
213.3
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
92.9
90.8
30.3
31.8
34.1
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.4
-108.1
-132.0
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.4
168.1
173.9
47.7
51.3
17.6
16.9
17.7
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
118.0
29.9
29.0
9.2
10.1
9.8
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
55.9
17.8
22.3
8.4
6.9
7.9
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.2
55.1
60.9
17.6
21.4
21.2
Imports
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
158.9
45.0
47.6
14.4
16.0
16.0
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
10.1
13.3
3.2
5.4
5.3
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
30.4
29.8
9.7
10.1
10.8
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
30.3
30.9
10.0
10.3
10.6
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
0.1
-1.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.1
93.6
100.9
26.2
26.8
8.9
8.8
9.0
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.7
99.3
103.5
28.4
29.2
10.0
9.7
9.9
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.6
-5.7
-2.6
-2.1
-2.4
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.4
78.8
23.3
24.5
8.1
8.2
8.6
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.6
84.4
90.8
26.3
24.3
8.0
8.1
9.0
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.9
-12.0
-2.9
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.4
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
88.0
21.7
21.2
7.1
6.7
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.7
19.9
19.6
6.4
6.5
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
12.3
1.8
1.7
0.7
0.3
Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.3
6.7
13.8
6.9
8.2
2.7
1.9
2.7
France
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.4
1.1
0.3
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.7
1.9
4.9
0.8
0.7
0
0.1
0
Italy
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-2.9
Canada
-5.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
-0.4
-2.0
-1.3
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1.0
1.4
-0.7
Japan
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
West Germany
-3.2
-7.1
0
France
United Kingdom
2.3
Italy
Canada
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-0.3
United Kingdom
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
Italy
Canada
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
Jun
Jul
-0.5
1.2
7.1
26.1
24.9
-3.5
40.7
16.6
-2.4
48.8
-2.6
7.2
-1.7
=15.8
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
Jun
Jul
-7.1
--10.8
-0.4
-5.3
--49.2
-2.2
9.8
-11.6
-24.1
6.7
10.3
-0.5
2.4
-18.2
-8.2
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 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-17.8
-11.3
-13.7
21.7
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8
26.8
42.4
81.8
18.4
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
8.5
6.0
11.3
6.5
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-26.0
9.5
11.8
3.7
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
-3.1
-3.8
5.5
5.2
9.3
11.7
Canada
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-13.1
1.7
6.2
- 7.6
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
32.2
33.5
42.8
-2.2
48.3
27.5
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
31.3
17.1
19.5
-1.0
35.5
39.7
France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
29.7
4.4
15.7
-2.8
27.7
27.8
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
1.7
20.8
19.3
-7.7
-2.0
-16.9
Ital.,
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
30.1
14.5
18.8
-2.0
35.2
37.6
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-5.4
-6.9
5.7
6.4
-13.1
6.8
-0.7
Money Market Rates
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
United States
16.24
12.49
9.23
10.56
8.16
7.68
6.77
6
67
6
75
6
88
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
.
.
.
Japan
7.79
7.23
NA
6.66
6.52
6.38
5.98
6
12
5
98
5
82
loans and discounts
(2 months)
.
.
.
West Germany
12.19
8.82
5.78
5.96
5.40
4.51
4.52
4
47
4
55
4
55
interbank loans
(3 months)
.
.
.
France
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97
8.96
7.41
7.55
7
27
7
41
interbank money market
(3 months)
.
.
United Kingdom
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
12.26
10.09
10.41
10
14
9
72
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
.
.
Italy
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95
16.00
12.71
13
66
12
50
11
97
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
.
.
.
Canada
18.46
14.48
9.53
11.30
9.71
11.08
9.03
9
52
8
78
8
80
finance paper (3 months)
.
.
.
Eurodollars
16.87
13.25
9.69
10.86
8.41
7.91
7.00
6
95
6
99
7
07
3-month deposits
.
.
.
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Agricultural Prices
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Bananas
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
214.0
217.0
232.0
243.0
110.3
109.8
108.5 108.9
Beef (0 per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (? per pound)
Coffee ($ per pound)
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US 0/lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice (S per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports spot prices 0 per pound)
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(Q per pound)
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Food Index a (1980=100)
NA
100.0
101.4
97.6
100.9
90.7
87.8
84.4
89.6
90.3
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
82.6
87.6
NA
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
2.01
1.73
1.49
1.47
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
53.60
45.51
36.35
NA
571
445
502
730
501
289
241
221
NA
632
481
514
514
484
453
352
288
573
362
339
310
249
236
224
230
NA
288
244
282
283
225
218
213
203
198
252
219
238
197
157
188
184
183
185
16.93
8.42
8.49
5.18
4.04
5.83
7.45
5.58
5.50
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
85.6
79.8
NA
187
183
182
169
172
158
129
124
88
78
86
92
81
95
94
83
84
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Ist Qtr
2nd Qtr
Jul
Aug
Major US producer
77.7
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
LME cash
57.4
44.9
65.1
56.8
47.2
51.4
53.1
50.7
51.0
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
Copper a (bar, g per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
64.5
64.5
60.6
59.1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
342.6
341.6
348.4
365.4
Lead a (0 per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
16.7
17.6
17.0
17.5
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
68.4
67.2
64.8
64.8
65.6
Cathode major producer
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
LME Cash
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
383.1
420.1
438.0
495.7
47.5
45.7
44.0
44.4
44.1
42.8
38.7
38.3
NA
Natural
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.6
42.0
41.7
40.1
43.6
43.5
5.2
5.0
5.1
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
74.0
71.8
NA
NA
Tina (0 per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
543.2
357.4
250.5
244.0
245.5
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
8,673
7,567
7,112
6,360
US Steel
NA
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
34.7
41.5
35.4
28.5
33.8
36.5
36.5
Lumber Index
(1980=100)
Industrial Materials Index r 85 71
(1980=100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
1The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
55,837
53,092
52,625
53,674
52,931
54,029
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
39,758
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
15,022
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
8,898
8,848
8,808
8,800
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,480
_
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,711
2,538
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
856
826
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,077
927
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515 _
7,845
7,556
7,998
-
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,376
2,527
2,547
2,500
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
758
845
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,422
4,626
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
17,180
18,000
19,300
20,320
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
602
600
600
600
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
275
300
300
285
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
160
160
170
170
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,223
1,305
1,235
1,250
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
1,890
2,100
2,200
2,300
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,732
1,700
1,700
1,900
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862
1,169
1,400
1,500
1,600
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,150
Neutral Zone c
370
317
390
_ 410
355
276
220
300
340
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,417
1,550
1,490
1,600
Qatar
405
328
295
__ 399
302
352
360
430
400
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
_
4,444
3,290
4,256
4,250
5,100
5,600
-
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,287
1,405
1,505
1,505
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,541
1,550
1,570
1,620
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,397
14,417
14,239
14,271
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,350
11,350
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
2,496
2,496
2,496
Other
411
410
412
409
393
425
Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
--- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul
United States -------- -- -
16,058 15,296 15,184 15,708 15,726 15,923 16,056 16,188 15,743 15,852 15,998 16,309
Japan
4444 d MA a taa A zen
west t. erman - -- -
Y 2,120 2,024 2,009 2,012 2,060 2,096 2,406 2,141 2,640 2,388 2,473
France 1,744 1,632 1,594 1,531 1,493 1,626 2,009 1,525 1,702 1,245 1,284
United Kingdom 1,325 1,345 1,290 1,624 1,402 1,286 1,483 1,447 1,427 1,330
Italy b 1,705 1,618 1,594 1,513 1,516 1,718 1,855 1,535 1,495 1,345 1,506
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
1' Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States
Japan
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
Jan Feb Mar Apr
06 3,488 3,329 3,426 3,201 3,329 2,993 3,000 3,701
31919 3,657 3,567 3,664 3,377 3,126 4.273 3.671 1 duo
3,872 4,508 4,291
wesE Y 1,591 1,451 1,307 1,335 1,284 1,321 1,258 1,429 1,285 1,340 1 , 263
,263
France 1,804 1,596 1,429 1,395 1,476 1,430 1,420 1,380 1,608 1,235
United Kingdom
736 565 456 482 523 493 445 494 610 767 442
1,816 1,710 1,532 1,507 1,462
Canada 521 334 247 244 283 353 424 260 185
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 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr May Jun
29.31 28.70 28.14 28.09 28.08 28.07 28.11
27.16 Average Price NA NA NA NA NA .16 20.67 NA 14.06 12.87
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
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 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
Average Crude Oil Sales Price"
(IS ti per barrel
1 1.29 11.02 11.77 12.88 12.93
3.39
14.03 14.06
1 II 111 IV I i F M A
1985 1986
l he 1973 price is derived from posted prices. 1974-84 prices
are derived from OPEC official sales prices, and beginning
in 1985, prices are a measure of average world sales prices.
Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4
Approved For Release 2011/08/26: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100530001-4