MORE MEGACITIES: OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH AND CHANGE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97R00694R000600270001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 1, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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Al
Directorate of Confidential
Intelligence
More Megacities: Outlook for
Growth and Change
Confidential
GI 86-10052
July 1986
Copy 5 0 6
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Directorate of Confidential
Intelligence
Growth and Change
More Megacities: Outlook for
Division, OGI, on
and may be directed to the Chief, Geography
This paper was prepared by I Office of
Global Issues. Comments and queries are welcome
Confidential
G/ 86-10052
July 1986
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Summary
Information available
as of 30 May 1986
was used in this report.
More Megacities: Outlook for
Growth and ChangeF--]
The world's largest cities are growing ever larger in size and becoming
more closely linked to one another through near-instantaneous communica-
tions and rapid air travel. Cities like Sao Paulo, Seoul, Bombay, or Cairo
exceed most of the world's sovereign states in population and economic
significance and, in some respects, have become a world apart from the
countries in which they are located. We anticipate that:
? The number of urban agglomerations with populations of more than 2
million will more than double (from 85 to more than 170) between now
and the year 2000.
? The world's largest cities, once concentrated in the industrialized coun-
tries, will become increasingly concentrated in the LDCs, and this shift
will precipitate substantial changes in industrial location and trade.
? The growing internationalization of these cities, because of rapid ad-
vances in transport and communication technology, will further alter the
relationships between national hinterlands and principal cities and
exaggerate the differences between elite groups and the have-nots.
? The rapid growth of most LDC cities is not likely to moderate until well
into the 21st century, and, until it does, problems associated with
overcrowding-inadequate housing, limited services, and crime-are
likely to foster instability and political change at local and national levels.
replacement costs for urban infrastructure.
Although the correlation has historically been high between large and
rapidly growing cities and political and economic health, it may break
down over the next several decades because of the growing disparity
between the population sizes of these cities and the ability of their
economies to generate jobs and revenue. A number of cities of importance
to the United States-Mexico City, Cairo, Calcutta, and Sao Paulo-may
have already crossed the threshold between burden and asset to their
national economies. Even Seoul, with its rapidly expanding economy, may
be unable to manage the problems of too many people in the coming years,
while Tokyo, Osaka, and some European cities will be burdened by the
problems of urban maturity-aging populations and high maintenance and
Confidential
GI 86-10052
July 1986
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Summary
iii
The Growth of Cities
1
Prospects for Further Growth
1
The Consequences of Growth-Slums and Squatters
3
Cities and Countries: Changing Roles and Relationships
9
Change in the International System
10
What Is the Future of Individual Megacities?
12
Are Megacities a "Good Thing"?
13
Have Megacities Become Too Big?
13
What Happens to a Megacity That Has Become Too Big?
14
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More Megacities: Outlook for
Growth and ChangeF_1
The unprecedented increase in global population now
in progress is accompanied by an even more rapid
increase in urban population. Between 1985 and the
end of the century, total world population, according
to UN projections,' will rise from 4.8 billion to 6.1
billion, and almost three-fourths of the growth-some
938 million people-will be in urban areas. Although
urban growth rates have probably peaked in all major
regions, with the possible exception of China, they are
projected to remain high throughout the developing
world, with East Africa topping the list. 0
By the year 2000, we expect that the number of urban
areas with more than 10 million people will increase
from nine to 20, and that all but two of the 11 new
megacities will be in developing countries (table 1).
The number of cities with more than 2 million should
more than double, with over three-fourths located in
the developing world, compared with less than one-
half in 1950. Although these cities contain only about
10 percent of the world's population and just over 20
percent of its urban population at present, they are the
site of most of the world's industrial production and
business activity=
Some of the largest cities in the developing countries
will double their populations within 20 years or less,
while the largest cities of the developed world will
generally grow much more slowly (figure 1). Given the
much higher growth rates in the developing world, it
is possible, for example, that the Tehran urbanized
area could become nearly as large as greater New
York-now the world's fourth-largest city-and that
Lima/Callao or Istanbul could exceed greater London
(figure 2). The Center for International Research
(CIR) at the Bureau of Census estimates that annual
growth rates for the 1985-90 period for cities of
Table 1
Number of Cities More Than
2 Million, 1985-2000
1950
26
(12) a
8(4)
2(0)
1985
85
(51)
28 (19)
9(6)
2000
173
(133)
44(32)
20(15)
a ()= In areas other than United States, Canada, Japan, USSR,
Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
presently more than 2 million range from a low of
minus 1 percent per annum for Detroit to a high of 5
percent for Dhaka.'
Prospects for Further Growth
In most developing countries, the economic and politi-
cal forces that have led to centralization of population
and economic activity over the years are still working
to produce ever-larger cities. This growth is continu-
ing despite the worsening conditions of life for many
city dwellers and efforts to control internal migration.
I Population estimates in this paper are for urban agglomerations
defined as a population cluster of continuous built-up area with a
consistent density of at least 5,000 persons per square mile in 1985.
Although this definition permits comparison of urban agglomera-
tions on a universal basis, it also produces estimates that differ
markedly in many cases from estimates or census data for adminis-
tratively defined cities, and tends to understate slightly the size and
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City Growth-Regional Perspective
Africa
In Sub-Saharan Africa, migrants are flooding into
the big cities. The extremely high growth rate for
Lagos (4.5 percent per annum) is even more impres-
sive, given the fact that it is already the largest city in
black Africa; its population is expected to more than
double by the end of the century, and the same is true
of Kinshasa. In North Africa, Cairo, the continent's
largest city, and Alexandria have slowed their pace
substantially in the last decade.
Asia
Many cities in South Asia are expanding as rapidly
as those in Sub-Saharan Africa. India's capital, New
Delhi, continues to increase its population at a rate
near 4 percent, and Bangalore is growing even faster
than that, Calcutta, in contrast, is the slowest grow-
ing major city in India. South Asia's other megaci-
ties-Tehran, Karachi, and Dhaka-are all at or
near the top of the growth rate scale. The megacities
of Southwest Asia-Istanbul, Baghdad, and Anka-
ra-are increasing at rates above 3 percent, while
those in Southeast Asia show considerable variation
related to economic as well as demographic factors:
Jakarta is growing most rapidly and contrasts with
Singapore, where growth has slowed to 1 percent per
annum. East Asian cities also show wide variation:
while Japanese cities have slowed to rates similar to
those in Europe and North America, Korean cities
are among the fastest growing in the world. Chinese
cities, growing at less than 1 percent over the last
decade, are likely to increase more rapidly in coming
years, barring a reversal of the modernization and
industrialization policies being pursued by the
present government. F__1
Latin America
Most of the cities in South America continue to have
high growth rates, although in some of the oldest and
largest cities-Santiago, Rio de Janeiro, and espe-
cially Buenos Aires-rates have slowed substantial-
ly. The Brazilian cities of Sao Paulo and Belo
Horizonte, as well as Lima and Bogota, continue to
grow at rates that are expected to double their
populations within 20 to 25 years, as will Mexican
cities if present trends continue.
Developed Countries
Most North American and European cities are grow-
ing at less than 1 percent a year, and a few may
experience absolute losses in population. Centers of
heavy industry in the United States, the United
Kingdom, or West Germany are expected to continue
their relative, and, in some cases, absolute decline.
Soviet cities, with Kiev leading the list, are generally
growing at somewhat higher rates than European
cities but still well below those of Third World cities.
One recent academic model, which attempts to incor-
porate a variety of economic and demographic vari-
ables, concludes that the "urban transition"' will
have run its course in most LDCs by the year 2025.
The United Nations projects that the less developed
regions will be only 58 percent urbanized by 2025
(figure 3). Whatever the actual rate, the immediate
prospects are for several more decades of exceptional
growth in most of the Third World's largest cities
because of rural-urban migration and high natural
increase rates associated with recent migrants.)
Many of the cities already among the largest in the
world are continuing to attract a disproportionate
share of overall rural-urban migration. Recent aca-
demic studies that analyze subnational census and
other demographic data by decade show that the core
areas (the urbanized area including and surrounding
the preeminent city) of most developing countries
continued to increase their share of national popula-
tion during the 1970-80 period. As economic develop-
ment progresses, the relative growth rate of smaller
cities may increase, but this process was not yet
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Figure 3
Regional Increase in Urbanization,
1950, 1985, and 2025
,00-49
50-69
70-79
80-100
Micronesia/Polynesia
Southern Africa
29 42 62
17 32 58
54 72 85
5 18
5 19
12 21
I.s 25
9 25
14 26
14 3
19 4
25 47
37
34
23
evident during the 1970s except in some advanced
LDCs. For example, the Caracas and Buenos Aires
core areas have begun to show a declining share of
national population growth. Some falloff in relative
growth of the Cairo, Santiago, and Lima core areas
was also noted but was attributed to factors of
economic stagnation and congestion rather than to the
underlying positive changes in urban growth structure
associated with economic development. F-1
The same special characteristics that explain the
megacities' drawing power also underlie their prob-
lems and vulnerabilities. Those termed primate cities
in academic literature are at least twice the size of the
second-largest city in the country. These cities also
perform cultural, economic, and, in the case of capital
cities, political functions not performed elsewhere in
the country. Most also house a large foreign commu-
nity of students, tourists, diplomats, businessmen, and
guest workers. Classic examples include Santiago,
Mexico City, Cairo, Seoul, Tehran, and Lima (figure
4). In India and China, no one city clearly overshad-
ows all others, but several cities dominate large
subnational regions in a similar fashion.F__1
These large cities dominate the economic and cultural
life of their nations, drawing talent and capital from
other regions. In LDCs,
it is not unusual for one-half to two-thirds of
the national manufacturing capability to be located in
or around the largest city. This city is the principal
point of linkage between the nation and the rest of the
:world-sometimes the only entry point for interna-
:tional air traffic-and often the hub of the country's
internal transport network. International finance and
trade are concentrated here, and world-class ameni-
ties are available to attract and retain foreign capital
.and talent. Major universities, theaters, and scientific
,institutions add to megacity drawing power. Con-
straining the growth of these cities is difficult because
of the nature of the forces that produced their domi-
nance in the first place.
The Consequences of Growth-Slums and Squatters
Latin American cities, such as Rio de Janeiro, Buenos
Aires, and Mexico City, first encountered problems
associated with rapid urban growth rates in the late
1930s and early 1940s. The same difficulties emerged
with full force in Asian LDCs after World War II and
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Figure 4
Primate Cities: Percent
of Population, 1985
Santiago - ?
Buenos Aires - -
Athens
Seoul I --
Lima -~
~
-
-
-
_
Chile 1 1.8
Argentina 30.7
Greece 10.0
Korea 42.6
Peru 19.5
Taipei j 1 --
-
Taiwan 19.3
Baghdad
I --
.
Iraq 15.51
Budapest
--
.
Hungary 10.6
Tokyo
- -
1
Japan 120.'6
Mexico City
I ? -
Mexico 79.6
Caracas
- ~
I
Venezuela 17.8'
Cairo
Egypt 48.3
London
I -
United Kingdom 56.0
Bogota
I
Colombia, 29.5
Tehran
1 -~
Iran 45.11
Paris
I ?
France 55.0
Manila .. .
I
Philippines 56.8
Istanbul
I (_
Turkey 51.21
Sao Paulo
- ..
Brazil 137.5
Kinshasa 1
-
Zaire 33.01
Bangkok
Thailand 52.71
Rangoon
' -
Burma 36.9'
Lagos
Nigeria 91.11
Karachi
I
Pakistan 99.11
Ho Chi Minh City
1
Vietnam , 60.41
Moscow
1-
USSR 227.6
Dhaka
Bangladesh 102.7
aSelected cities over two million.
309546 7-86
Total
Country
Population
(millions)
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LDC governments confronted with the rapid, chaotic
nature of big city growth have attempted to control
city size through policy intervention. Economic incen-
tives (tax breaks, loans, rebates, grants, utility sub-
sidies) for business to locate somewhere other than
the largest city, and employer disincentives (costly
permits for new construction, higher taxes, utility
fees, and zoning restrictions) in the largest cities are
common policy tools. Other national programs, like
land reform and development, upgrading rural infra-
structure, and decentralizing job opportunities, are
designed to provide positive alternatives to migrants
bound for the big city. Also common are controls on
individuals' entry into the city (to "close" certain
cities), limitations on migrant access to essential
social services (medical and educational), expulsion
of migrants who do not have jobs, restrictions on
vending and other forms of employment in the infor-
mal sector, or residence permits and costly user
charges and taxes. F-1
Inadequate enforcement and the existence of policies
or conflicting economic dynamics at the national and
international level often render direct growth-control
measures ine,fective. Regulations also present new
in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1960s. In all areas, the
absolute numbers of people are still growing rapidly.
For example, in Latin America the 12 cities of more
than 2 million will add more than 40 million people
(the equivalent of four new Rios or seven new Limas)
between now and the year 2000. F__1
opportunities for corruption; counterfeiting of resi-
dence cards and other official papers needed for
access to jobs or schools is widespread. F7
Centrally planned economies have been able to exer-
cise greater control over both spatial deployment of
investment (job opportunities) and the movement of
citizens. For example, in the early 1950s the Chinese
began to subsidize development of interior cities at
the expense of Shanghai and other large coastal cities
that had prospered in the colonial era. Tough laws to
limit urban migration were passed in 1958; tight
registration requirements and control over food sup-
plies ensured that entry into the city could be ob-
tained only if one had a job or attended a university.
Even after the Cultural Revolution during the 1970s,
some 17 million educated youths were dispersed into
the countryside. As a consequence of these mea-
sures-and the general population control mea-
sures-Chinese cities grew very slowly during the
decades when most big cities in less developed econo-
mies were exploding. Urban growth controls in the
USSR and Eastern Europe and other planned econo-
mies have had a similar, though lesser, impact.0
approach to the housing problem-has a density of
well over 200,000 per square mile. Certain neighbor-
hoods in cities like Bombay and Hong Kong have
more than 400,000 persons per square mile. US cities,
in contrast, generally average under 10,000 persons
per square mile, and Tokyo and Osaka only around
25,000 per square mile.)
We expect that the bulk of urban growth in the Third
World will continue to occur in squatter and slum
areas. Most rural-urban migrants do not have suffi-
cient income to enter the conventional urban housing
market. Even those with sufficient income often find
it makes economic sense to squat illegally on open
land-public and private-wherever it is available or
to save money by crowding into deteriorating older
buildings with relatives or other migrants. The aver-
age density of some cities is more than 80,000 persons
per square mile; Hong Kong-because of its high-rise
According to census I data, one-third to one-
half of the population in most of the developing
world's largest cities live in housing without running
water, sewerage, electricity, police protection, public
transportation, or other municipal services that people
in the developed countries associate with city life;
much of this housing is within squatter communities.
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... making Christmas trees in ... vending fruit in Manila.
Manila. I
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Finding shelter ...
officials.
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Polluted drainage ditch in new
Manila housing project.
Traffic in Karachi.
A colonia on the outskirts of Mexico City
about to receive water, sewer, and
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Cities With Densities of More Than 80,000
Persons Per Square Mile
Bombay Cairo Jakarta
Shanghai Lagos Hong Kong
Tianjin Ho Chi Minh City Chengdu
Cities and Countries: Changing Roles and
Relationships
The relationship between the megacities and the
nations of which they are a part is being subjected to
stresses that are likely to lead to change in budgetary
arrangements, administrative structures, and political
alignments:
? Although the largest cities cohtain a substantial
The cities of the Indian subcontinent are notorious for
their crowding and squalor. Bombay reportedly has
4.5 million squatters-some 46 percent of the popula-
tion-living in substandard conditions; Calcutta's ex-
tensive bustees have become synonymous with human
misery; 40 percent of Karachi's population lives in
squatter areas. A third of Manila's population lives in
slums, of which the waterfront Tondo is the most
infamous. Rio's favelas-squatter settlements-house
about a third of the population, while nearly half of
Sao Paulo's inhabitants live in similar conditions. In
Bogota over half the population lives in "pirate sub-
divisions" created by land developers who fail to
comply with legal standards. Lagos's squatter popula-
tion numbers in the millions.
Despite their squalor, squatter communities are often
the best available option for the poor and some not so
poor. They are usually rent free, and legal title can
often be obtained after a few years. Thus, they can
provide a vehicle for the transfer of wealth and serve
as a base for upward mobility. We believe, however,
that they also present a potential for radical political
change through both violent and nonviolent means. In
the popular mind and, to some extent, in reality,
shantytowns have become increasingly associated
with insurgent activities and terrorist groups, especial-
ly in capitals such as Lima, Santiago, and Manila.
Squatters everywhere undermine property rights and
sometimes form a mass that can be manipulated by
outside political benefactors. F___]
portion of a country's population and produce an
even greater share of the GDP and tax revenue,
municipal authorities often have little clout in the
formulation of national policy. While the megacities
generally receive more per capita from the central
government than rural areas do, they receive far less
than is needed to create the public services and
infrastructure required by expanding populations
and new and more complex roles.
? National trade, immigration, and refugee policies
may affect particular cities more strongly than they
do the country as a whole. This gives rise to political
disagreements between local and national authori-
ties over such things as transfer payments and law
enforcement.
? The role of megacities as "windows to the world"
can also produce severe culture clash. The "interna-
tional" part of a city caters to an elite that demands
goods and services at the high end of the economic
scale and lives by one set of cultural norms, while
inhabitants of the "indigenous" city engage in a
daily struggle for food and shelter and adhere to
another set of expectations and values. The proximi-
ty of these different cultures in a crowded city make
disparities obvious and conflicts unavoidable.
? The megacities are the sites of the often violent
pressures associated with urban life: unemployed
youth, government actions against squatters, stu-
dent protest, inadequate police protection, and com-
petition among racial and religious groups. As the
maintenance of order and crowd control in major
cities, especially capitals, become of increasing con-
cern to the national government, the relationship
between the national military and law enforcement
agencies on the one hand and metropolitan police
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The problems of Lima and the events presently
unfolding there illustrate the relationship between
national politics and urban issues, and are not unlike
those of other key Third World cities. Lima is not
only the national capital but is also the home of a
third of the Peruvian population; it produces half the
country's GNP and 90 percent of the output of capital
goods:
at Garaguay became a symbol for the leftist
opposition), and ultimately led in April to his call
for immediate recognition of all land claims in
squatter settlements. The latter action further
usurped the Marxist left's key issue and Mayor
Barrantes municipal authority, and reduced the
mayor's potential as a political competitor on the
national scene.
? While growth rates have slowed slightly, migrants
continue to flock to Lima, driven not only by
economic motives but by increasing insurgent vio-
lence in the countryside. A recent International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)
report indicates that 60 percent of Lima's popula-
tion lives in inner-city slums or peripheral squatter
settlements (pueblos jovenes-young towns).
? Squatter problems and national politics have be-
come inextricably linked. President Garcia's need
to increase political strength in the squatter areas
has led to an ambitious public works program
(PPEM) to create jobs and improve infrastructure,
has caused him to reverse his earlier support for
government squatter removal (after the govern-
ment's violent eviction of 20,000 squatters last year
forces on the other is one of the most rapidly evolving
areas of change in nation-municipality relationships.
The involvement of international institutions in city
problems in the developing countries also affects city-
nation relationships. For example, the urban lending
program initiated in 1972 by the World Bank forced
some governments to set minimum standards for site
development and to institute self-payment for utilities
and services. International Monetary Fund pressure
to eliminate consumer subsidies has also underlined
the political importance of key urban areas, as govern-
ments must weigh the possibility of regime-threaten-
ing violence in these cities against long-term national
economic interests.
? Violence in the city has been recognized by key
government officials as a major problem in attract-
ing new foreign capital and tourists to Lima.
Stepped-up terrorist activities in the last year have
led to a curfew and state of emergency and to a
rapidly changing relationship between the police,
private security forces, and the national military
and other special units.
? While national leaders pursue firmer political con-
trol over Lima, a major IBRD project for the Lima
metropolitan area is seeking to shift responsibility
for metropolitan management away from the na-
tional government and toward local administration.
Change in the International System
Some cities have already become economic, political,
and demographic entities of greater magnitude than
most of the countries in the world. In terms of
population, Mexico City will probably exceed 80
percent of the sovereign states in the world, dwarfing
in size not only ministates, but nations such as
Switzerland, Austria, or Greece (figure 6).
We expect that these cities will also increase their
connections with one another, and, in the process,
their ties to their hinterlands may atrophy or become
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Figure 5
Comparison of Population: Cities and Countries, 1985 and 2000
1985 0 1985
2000 2000
Spain
Argentina
Tokyo-Yokahama
Taiwan
Mexico City
Czechoslovakia
Sao Paulo
New York
Seoul
Osaka
Ghana
Buenos Aires
Calcutta
Bombay
Note: The world's largest cities exceed in population many neighbor nations, and
current growth trends will result in more cities moving well ahead of country
populations in the more developed nations.
more difficult. Recent progress in air travel and
communications has eroded the barriers of time and
distance that inhibited creation of this network link-
ing the cities in which most of the world's business is
transacted. At the same time, the growing volume of
city-to-city transnational activities and the point-to-
point mentality created by air travel have diminished
awareness of national boundaries and territory. In the
future, many cities-while not becoming independent
Rio de Janeiro
Greece
Moscow
Los Angeles
Cairo
Paris
Ecuador
Manila
Jakarta
Sweden
New Delhi
Shanghai
Switzerland
Beijing
city states like Singapore-are likely to operate under
rules different from those in surrounding state territo-
ry and to become culturally and administratively
more discrete. Mayors of large cities are already
taking on international roles as they travel abroad to
tout the advantages of investing in their municipal-
ities. In May 1985, Tokyo hosted a conference-the
"first summit meeting of mayors" that focused on the
common problems of the world's largest urban areas.
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Jane Jacobs on Cities and the Wealth of Nations
Jane Jacobs argues that the fundamental fallacy of
macroeconomic theory is "the idea that national
economies are useful and salient entities for under-
standing how economic life works. " After she appeals
to common sense to reject a system in which the
USSR and Ecuador or the Netherlands and Canada
are systemically equivalent units, she moves to her
main thesis that the import-replacement cycle is at
the heart of all real and lasting economic develop-
ment, and that a large urban agglomeration is the
only mechanism through which this cycle can become
self-sustaining. F-1
According to Jacobs the world's largest cities are the
only places where a critical mass of intellectual,
technical, and social, as well as financial capital, can
be accumulated. These assets interact in a way that
produces entrepreneurship and innovation not found
in a less dense environment, giving large cities the
ability to replicate the import-substitution process
over and over again as technology changes. In the
process the space economy of the city expands out-
ward, not confined to preestablished political bound-
aries, but as far as the "economic energy" of the city
requires. F1
What is the Future of Individual Megacities?
A number of megacities in the Third World may be
reaching the critical point in the balance between
population size and economic vitality:
? Mexico City is running out of space, water, and air.
The quality of life for all classes has deteriorated.
The city (like the country) is living beyond its means
and depends to some extent on foreign financing.
Nevertheless, it remains the most broadly vigorous
economic, political, and cultural area in Mexico.
? Cairo suffers from extreme overcrowding and very
rapidly deteriorating urban services. Public security
is not assured. The city, already supported by
foreign governments, international organizations,
and remittances from overseas Cairenes, will need
much more of this support. It still has some vigorous
sectors, but these are perhaps being sapped.
? Calcutta continues to be the poorhouse of the
subcontinent. Conditions for the great mass of
people appear to be worse than in any other city in
the world, and prospects that they will get better are
virtually nil. It is still the major city of the Bengali
hinterland, however, and its cultural, political, and
economic life is far from dead.
? Sao Paulo suffers from declining health conditions,
rising crime, and deteriorating infrastructure. In-
migration appears to have declined and some out-
migration is evident. The city may be headed for an
"easy letdown" as other Brazilian cities take up the
slack.
? Jakarta continues to be inundated with migrants,
while the decline in world oil prices has severely
handicapped the government's ability to make pro-
gress on public services. International programs
have improved conditions in some squatter areas,
but unemployment, traffic jams, dwindling water
supply, inadequate refuse removal, and occasional
battles with squatters keep the city on the edge of
crisis.
These five cities are only examples of the many Third
World megacities where population pressures may
produce severe crises by the year 2000. Manila, Lima,
Karachi and others face equally disturbing futures.
The megacities of the developed world and the East
Asian newly industrialized countries are not immune
to the problems described above, but their possibilities
for easy letdown and eventual revival appear to be
better. Most of these mature magacities are growing
very slowly, and a few in Europe are declining in
population as more vigorous regional cities grow.
Seoul would appear to be at great risk in coming years
because of the size and pace of its population growth.
Despite remarkable economic growth, many aspects
of the quality of life in Tokyo and Osaka are already
in decline. The aging of the Japanese population-
which implies a shift of resources out of investment
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and into social services-could lead to reduced eco-
nomic performance and perhaps increased social
strain during the period.
Are Megacities a "Good Thing"?
Historically, there has been a high correlation be-
tween large and rapidly growing cities on the one side
and political, economic, and cultural vitality on the
other. The growth of Rome, Constantinople, Paris,
London, and New York reflected the vigor of the
civilizations, empires, and nations they represented.
Some of the great cities of the Third World also were
of critical importance in economic and political con-
solidation, and even those that grew in the colonial
era, while viewed by some as conduits for exploitation,
were nonetheless the focus of economic life and
the instrument of modernization. Even today, the
megacities of the Third World, squalid and over-
crowded as they may be, represent oases of relative
progress, opportunity, and comfort. The middle-class
Brazilian businessman who moves to Sao Paulo and
the starving Bengali peasant who moves to Calcutta
are both likely, at least marginally, to improve their
lot. More important, only the large cities have the
critical mass of capital, labor, ideas, markets, and
international connections to spark explosive economic
growth. The "miracle economies" of East Asia func-
tion more like city states than nation states.0
Politically, the importance of a very large city in
nation building has long been recognized by scholars
and politicians alike. Viewed as the heart of a country,
such a city has generally served as a unifying force for
the rest of the national territory. Although citizens
have often lamented its evils, talented youth were
generally educated and assimilated into the national
culture there, as were other migrants from the hinter-
lands whose parochial viewpoints were merged into a
more common national perspective. F7
Have Megacities Become Too Big?
The question of "too big?" is not one of population
numbers alone, but of the ability of the city to
continue to play a positive and leading role in national
development and cohesion. It is questionable whether
many Third World megacities can do so over the next
Historically, there has been a better fit than there is
now between the magnitude of population growth and
the growth of economic opportunities within major
cities. In some cities of the developing world today,
population growth has gotten so far ahead of the
expansion of economic opportunities that it is difficult
to forecast when, or if, the two will again come into
better balance. In a world economy driven by capital-
intensive, high-technology industries, productive em-
ployment at living wages may forever elude a large
proportion of these Third World urban dwellers.=
Continued restraints on future industrial growth and
economic expansion and job creation-such as scarce
water supplies or debt problems-may mean that the
economic evolution of these cities is permanently
depressed, and that they are handicapped in perform-
ing the critical functional roles that national progress
requires of them. They may be too massive to be
governed, too chaotic to be creative, too congested to
be productive, and too poor to offer even relative
opportunity for increasing populations.=
Another way of viewing the question is in terms of the
demands these cities place on the national economy.
Traditionally, the large cities have served as "milch
cows" for the rest of the nation; that is, they produce
enough wealth to support the rest of the nation
through taxes and transfer payments. In modern
industrial economies, big cities have provided the crop
subsidies and industry bailouts that keep the farms,
factories, and towns alive. When the rest of the nation
must be drained to support the city, it would appear
that the city has become too large for the nation's
good. Some Third World cities-Lima, Cairo, Ma-
nila, Calcutta, to mention only a few-look to both
international lending and aid programs for progress in
urban transport and housing, and to the national
treasury for consumer and industrial subsidies. Until
demographic pressures subside, many large cities will
be unable to generate wealth sufficient to improve or
maintain their own physical and social environment,
much less produce surplus for other uses.
few decades.
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What Happens to a Megacity That
Has Become Too Big?
First and foremost, the megacity probably will not
disappear. Especially if it is a national or regional
capital, it will continue to survive, and will usually be
supported to some extent through transfer payments
from the rest of the nation. But it will live from fiscal
crisis to fiscal crisis. Streets, sewage systems, public
transportation, and police and fire protection will fall
into disrepair, and the quality of life will deteriorate
further. In-migration will slow and eventually stop.
Small businesses will go under, larger corporations
will move their headquarters, and new investors will
look elsewhere. Even government may be "decentral-
ized" to other cities. The letdown may be relatively
easy-though still painful-if there are other, more
vigorous cities to take up the slack and if out-
migration is possible. In the absence of economic
prosperity and opportunity, the urban environment
within which commerce and society once served to
assimilate conflicting interests may now provide only
the stage for the violent expression of those interests.
In time, the city may even revive. (Rome went from
being the seat of a world empire to being a ruined
village with sheep in the streets to become the vigor-
ous capital of a modern nation; the great cities of
Mesopotamia remain dead.) In the worst case, the
problems of decline in a nation's principal city could
pull the entire nation into economic stagnation or
political revolt.
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What Happens to a Megacity That
Has Become Too Big?
First and foremost, the megacity probably will not
disappear. Especially if it is a national or regional
capital, it will continue to survive, and will usually be
supported to some extent through transfer payments
from the rest of the nation. But it will live from fiscal
crisis to fiscal crisis. Streets, sewage systems, public
transportation, and police and fire protection will fall
into disrepair, and the quality of life will deteriorate
further. In-migration will slow and eventually stop.
Small businesses will go under, larger corporations
will move their headquarters, and new investors will
look elsewhere. Even government may be "decentral-
ized" to other cities. The letdown may be relatively
easy-though still painful-if there are other, more
vigorous cities to take up the slack and if out-
migration is possible. In the absence of economic
prosperity and opportunity, the urban environment
within which commerce and society once served to
assimilate conflicting interests may now provide only
the stage for the violent expression of those interests.
In time, the city may even revive. (Rome went from
being the seat of a world empire to being a ruined
village with sheep in the streets to become the vigor-
ous capital of a modern nation; the great cities of
Mesopotamia remain dead.) In the worst case, the
problems of decline in a nation's principal city could
pull the entire nation into economic stagnation or
political revolt.
Confidential 14
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Figure 2
Megacity Change in Rank, 1985-2000
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Confidential
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