FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE AFRICAN SAHEL: SHORT-TERM RELIEF LONG-TERM PROBLEMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 19, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Food Production in the
African Sahel: Short-Term Relief,
Long-Term Problems
A Research Paper
Author/Production Officer
Attached for your information
and retention is a co-pv of our
ublication
GI 87-100281S
April 1987
0, 2 6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Food Production in the African Sahel: Short-Term Relief, Long-
Term Problems 25X1
Summary
Information available as of 1 March 1987 was used in this report.
The roughly 100 million people who live in the African Sahel
and the Horn of Africa are among the poorest in the world. The
eight countries in the region--Mauritania, Mali, Burkina, Niger,
Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia--have precarious economies and
governments prone to political instability. The severe drought
that covered portions of all eight countries during the first
half of the 1980s dealt a heavy blow to the economic, social,
demographic, and political fabric of the region and led to famine
conditions and widespread loss of life. Recent improvements in
rainfall have resulted in some relief from the worst immediate
effects of the drought, but the longer term outlook for the
region's food balance remains grim.
Rainfall remains the key factor that will determine the
region's general well-being over the rest of the decade. Analysis
of historical weather data indicates that weather patterns over
the next five years are likely to fall within a clear range:
--The best bet is for rainfall to stabilize somewhat around
recent levels.
--There is also a good chance that rainfall may continue the
downward trend of the last 25 years.
--There is a small chance that the recent rains could
indicate a return to a wet period like the early 1960s.
While there is some disagreement among climatologists on the
trend in Africa's climate, the majority agree with the most
likely projection that precipitation rates for the next few years
will closely follow the trend of the early 1980s.
Given this climate outlook, estimates indicate that
prospects for improving food availability through domestic grain
production are bleak. Unless weather conditions during 1986-90
come close to the best of recent years--a highly unlikely event--
per capita output of grain will most likely decline from the low
1981-85 levels, continuing a general trend of the last 25 years.
Although there may be some modest gains in total grain
production, they will be outstripped by the region's rapid
Page 1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
There is little chance, then, that the region can avoid
increased grain import requirements. Most of those imports would
have to be provided through various assistance programs, because
the region already spends about one-fourth of its meager export
earnings on grain imports. Annual regional needs by 1990 could
run 50 percent or more above the 2.2 million metric tons per year
average of 1981-85 just to maintain recent per capita consumption
levels; the cost at world market prices would exceed $1 billion.
In the best case, four of the countries--Mauritania, Mali,
Ethiopia, and Somalia--would still need substantial increases in
grain imports just to keep per capita grain consumption stable.
Even with the increases, Ethiopia and Mali would have no hope of
meeting the minimum nutritional standard consumption levels
established by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the
United Nations. In the other cases examined, which are much more
likely, all eight countries would need increased grain imports to
maintain per capita consumption, and most increases would be
This means that financial pressures will continue to be
severe and conditions fostering political instability will
probably intensify. The grain import bill is already so large--
about $475 million annually during 1981-85--that it sharply
limits the impact of foreign trade on economic development in the
region. Moreover, continued food shortages and drought-induced
crop failures are likely to force more migration into the already
overcrowded cities and across international borders, encouraging
both domestic unrest and the risk of conflict between countries
in the region.
The West will face large and probably rising requests for
food aid to the region as 1990 approaches. If rainfall levels
fall in the likely range, there may be little the countries
themselves can do in the short run to avoid a return to famine
conditions, at least in regions that are on the fringe of
adequate rainfall and are difficult to reach with limited grain
surpluses possibly available from other parts of a given country.
In fact, the primitive transportation and communication
infrastructure in the region makes it likely that pockets of
serious food shortages will arise and go undetected by
authorities for some time, sharply raising the risk of
starvation. Western logistic aid, therefore, will also be a
continuing need in the region.
The only longer term hope is policy adjustments needed to
induce improvement in the primitive level of the region's
agrotechnology, which would raise regional grain production and
limit import needs. The West is in an excellent position to
Page 2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
provide this agrotechnical assistance, despite the vagaries of
climate and limited arable land available. Much technology is
readily available or could be easily tailored to the conditions
of the region. Such a program would also sharply contrast with
Moscow's failure to provide such agricultural assistance because
of its own limitations in the agricultural arena. Western
pressure on local governments to make the policy environment more
supportive of improved a rotechnolo y would be a critical adjunct
to such an aid program. 25X1
Page 3
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Food Production in the African Sahel: Short-Term Relief, Long-
Term Problems 25X1
The countries of the African Sahel and the Horn of Africa
are among the poorest in the world. The vast majority of their
100 million people are essentially subsistence farmers whose
meager existence is annually subject to the vagaries of the
weather. An extended drought that covered most of the first half
of this decade decimated crops in large portions of the region,
leading to large-scale famine, mass migrations across
international borders, increased political instability, and the
need for massive external food aid. Despite improvements
triggered by greater rainfall since 1985, the longer term outlook
for the region's food balance remains grim, and large quantities
of food aid will continue to be needed to stave off episodes of
mass starvation and political instability.
Rainfall Barely Adequate for Agriculture
Given the low level of agrotechnology in the region,
rainfall is the key weather factor that determines the level of
agricultural output in the Sahel and the Horn (appendix A). The
agricultural areas of the eight countries included in this study
--Mali, Burkina, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia--are
situated in a narrow transitional climatic zone between the
Sahara Desert on the north and tropical forest on the south.
Total annual precipitation varies widely from year to year, but,
as a general rule, most of the land receives less rainfall than
the 400 millimeters (mm) per year needed for nonirrigated
agriculture to be successful.
The western and central portions of the Sahel are
characterized by natural grassland, nomadic herding, and rain-fed
agriculture, with most rainfall occurring from July to September.
There is very little water storage in this part of Africa, and,
when the rains fail, cattle either die in large numbers or are
driven southward in search of better grazing land and water. In
the latter case, their numbers--combined with indigenous herds--
often exceed the carrying capacity of the land, causing great
damage to ecosystems and jeopardizing future feed resources. Most
crops are produced at the subsistence level, and farmers obtain
very low yields even in good years. Often the farmers carry
little or no surplus from year to year, and the lack of a well-
developed infrastructure--roads, motorized vehicles, and
communication facilities--limits the amount of food that can be
moved from surplus to deficit areas. The danger of famine arises
Page 4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
quickly when the rains fail, yet indications of an impending
famine may go undetected by governments and relief agencies for
Farther east, in the Horn, rainfall occurs in two seasons in
most of Ethiopia and in parts of Somalia. Small amounts of
precipitation fall in the spring--triggered by wind circulation
from the Indian Ocean--but the major rains occur in the summer
months. Ethiopia's large population--about 44 million people--and
primitive agricultural techniques offset much of the food
production advantage this region has, and generally the food
balance is as precarious here as in the western and central parts
The Recent Drought in Historical Perspective
The recent drought in the eight countries along the southern
fringe of the Sahara Desert has been the worst in this century.
The drought, which has plagued most of the region since the late
1960s, was particularly intense during the period 1980-84. In
fact, the United Nations has designated these countries as having
the most serious food problems in Africa. Although recent rains
have brought some relief, precipitation levels continue to be
well below the long-term average and barely above the 400-mm
annual rainfall requirement of many nonirrigated crops. Although
this downward trend is unprecedented in duration and magnitude
during this century, similar droughts have occurred periodically
in this region since the early 1700s. The historical evidence
indicates that similar episodes occurred in the 1740s and 1750s,
1820s and 1830s, and more recently in 1910-20.
From a geographical perspective, drought in this region is
not a localized phenomenon. Since the 1970s, its occurrence has
been persistent and widespread across the eight countries
included in this study. The line (isohyet) (1) representing the
occurrence of 400 mm of precipitation moved southward an average
of 85 kilometers (km) across the entire continent from 1966 to
1975, and 150 km in the period 1976-85 . The 25X1
southward movement of the 400-mm isohyet essentially eliminated
large agricultural areas from productive use. Also, there has
been a marked decrease in annual precipitation in the
agricultural areas nearer the southern fringes of the region
where rainfall is generally more abundant. The agricultural areas
of Mali, Niger, and Chad were especially hard hit in the 1966-75
period . Annual rainfall in these countries decreased 25X1
70 to 80 percent. The 1976-85 period saw a worsening and an
expansion of the drought into Sudan, with more agricultural areas
experiencing less than the minimum precipitation necessary to
grow crops. 25X1
Page 5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Impact of Drought on Grain Production and Import Needs
The food balance in the region has clearly worsened since
the mid-1960s. The decrease in precipitation since then has
contributed to a general reduction of grain yields in most of the
eight countries. Generally, yield declines have matched
precipitation shortfalls, except in Burkina and Ethiopia where
yields have been increasing even with decreasing precipitation.
In these two countries, other factors, such as increased use of
fertilizers, have helped offset the effects of decreasing
precipitation. Also, disease control measures in Burkina have
allowed fertile river valley land to be brought into production.
Reduction of grain area over the last 25 years in Ethiopia--
as a result of the elimination of less productive land in favor
of more intensive use of fertilizers on better land--has
nevertheless kept production there from rising substantially. In
most countries, yield reductions have been offset by steep
increases in area planted to grain--despite the southward
movement of the 400-mm precipitation isohyet--resulting in a net
increase in the total amount of grain produced by the eight
countries in the last 25 years. However, much of the new area
planted is of marginal quality. Moreover, per capita grain
production, a good indicator of import and aid needs, has
decreased steadily since the 1960s in many of the countries
because of the high population growth rate--an average of 3
percent per year.
The Population Problem
The population of the eight countries surveyed in this
report is large and growing rapidly--particularly considering the
paucity of arable land. Total population in the region increased
from about 51 million in 1960 to about 98 million in 1985--a near
doubling in 25 years. Projected annual growth rates for the 1980-
2000 period vary from 2.4 percent in Burkina and Somalia to 3.3
percent in Niger. Using these growth rates, the total population
of the region is projected to reach 113 million by 1990.
The amount of arable land available to the growing
population is comparatively limited. The total area of the region
is slightly larger than that of the United States, including
Alaska. In the United States about 20 percent of the land area is
arable, but only about 4 percent of this part of Africa can be
cultivated. This means that the region's average population
Page 6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
density of about 2.5 persons per hectare of arable land is twice
that of the United States. The population of the eight countries
is widely but unevenly spread across the African continent, with
Ethiopia and Sudan accounting for more than one-half of both the
total population and arable land.
As a result of the intensified drought during the 1980-85
period, total grain imports--provided either commercially or as
aid--for the eight countries tripled from 1.3 million metric tons
in 1980-81 to 4 million tons in 1984/85. Over the 1980-85 period,
food aid on average accounted for about two-thirds of total grain
imported. In the 1984/85 market year (MY), (2) following the 1984
drought, about 70 percent of the total grain imported by the
eight countries consisted of aid from donor countries. The high
proportion of food aid in grain imports obviously reflects both
the large need and the very limited ability of these countries to
pay full commercial prices for food imports.
An improvement in the 1985 rainy season considerably
diminished import and aid needs for the 1985/86 MY. Following
good grain harvests in 1985, Burkina, Chad, Mali, Niger, and
Sudan had local surpluses of grain. Estimates of the 1986 grain
crops are generally excellent, although a locust and grasshopper
infestation threatened to reduce somewhat the 1986 grain crop
across the African continent. Preliminary estimates indicate a
grain crop approaching 17 million tons--the best harvest to date
for the eight countries, and nearly 1 million tons higher than
1985. Nevertheless, many of the countries still need external
assistance to support the procurement, storage, and internal
distribution to deficit areas.
The Level of Agrotechnology
Agriculture in the Sahel and the Horn is generally at the
subsistence level, with cultivation done mostly with hand tools
and with a minimum of inputs. The use of mechanical traction--
practically nonexistent for production of staple crops--suffers 25X1
from a lack of capital investment, high fuel costs, and untrained
manpower. Animal power is utilized extensively only in Ethiopia
and is just beginning to be exploited in the other countries.
Grain yields in the belt of countries stretching from
Mauritania to Somalia are among the lowest in the world. In the
eight countries surveyed, grain yields for 1981-85 ranged from
Page 7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
less than 400 kg/ha in Chad and Niger to approximately 1,100
kg/ha in Ethiopia. These yields are one-sixth to one-half the
world's average grain yields. The low productivity cannot be
entirely explained by the harsh climate. The low level of
agricultural development in the Sahel and the Horn--typified by
the lack of fertilizers, mechanization, and technical know-how at
the peasant farm level--also plays a major role.
Development of higher yielding varieties of cereal crops
that can thrive in the harsh environment lags far behind plant
breeding work in other developing regions of the world.
Consequently, it may be at least 10 years before improved
varieties of millet and sorghum could be made available to
Sahelian farmers on a large scale.
Fertilizer is used mostly for cash crops in the eight
countries, and application rates--averaging less than 1.0 kg/ha
per year--are among the lowest in the world. In comparison, the
world average is about 30 kg/ha and the US average is about 100
kg/ha. Staple cereals, such as millet and sorghum, are grown with
little fertilizer, because of its high cost.
Only a very small percentage of crop land in these countries
is irrigated. As in the use of fertilizer, irrigation resources
are devoted mostly to cash crops. It is estimated that Africa has
less than one-twentieth the irrigated land of Asia. Nevertheless,
cultivating land along river valleys in the region--for example,
the Niger, Chari, and Nile Rivers--could provide an additional 2
million ha of agricultural land. However, infestations of tsetse
fly, the carrier of sleeping sickness that affects both humans
and cattle, presently discourage cultivation of large tracts of
fertile land along the rivers.
Improving the Food Balance: A Long-Term Process
Despite improvement in agricultural production in 1985 and
1986 as a result of more abundant rainfall--although well below
the long-term norms--the countries in the Sahel and the Horn
probably will remain well short of food self-sufficiency. Even
sustainable improvements in the food balance will be difficult to
achieve. The drought of the 1970s and 1980s is but one of the
factors that have contributed to the deterioration of the
region's ability to feed itself. Two other major factors, largely
resulting from failed government policies, are:
--The rapidly expanding populations. As highlighted earlier,
population growth rates in the eight countries--3 percent
on the average--are among the highest in the world.
Page 8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Moreover, with a population disproportionately made up of
children who will be in their reproductive prime in the
next five to 10 years, the growth rates will remain high
unless effective birth control policies are instituted.
--The slow rate of improvement in applied agrotechnology.
Increases in agricultural productivity in the region as a
result of the introduction of new technology have
generally lagged behind those in the rest of the world;
the growth rate in agricultural output in the region has
actually declined over the last 20 years.
The green revolution that dramatically increased
agricultural production and brought food self-sufficiency to
countries like India and China--whose food balances were very
precarious 20 to 30 years ago--has had little impact on the LDCs
of Africa. The essential conditions that brought about the green
revolution in Asia--availability of irrigated lands, major
improvements in high-yield crop varieties, market accessibility
through good transportation networks, and presence of a social
infrastructure and educational systems favorable for the
development and dissemination of technology--remain distant goals
for the eight countries. Agricultural improvements in the region
are made even more difficult by turbulent internal political
situations and pursuit of short-term goals that have favored
industrialization--limited as it is--at the expense of
agricultural development, city dwellers at the expense of
farmers, and sectarian gains at the expense of national unity.
There is some disagreement among climatologists on the trend
in Africa's climate. The decrease in precipitation over the last
25 years is seen by some climatologists as heralding a climate
change, characterized by a lower precipitation regime than that
experienced over the last 50 or so years. The majority of
climatologists believes that the present situation is still
within the realm of the climate that Africa has been experiencing
for at least the last 250 years; at a minimum, two other similar
drought episodes have been experienced over this time period.
During the next 10 to 20 years, a climate prediction consistent
with this latter view could see a return to a higher
precipitation regime as the most likely turn of events. Indeed,
some climatologists who favor this view believe that the
increased rains of 1985 were the beginning of such an upturn.
Page 9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Because of these uncertainties, this study developes three
weather scenarios for the 1986-90 period that seem to be
reasonable descriptions of the range of possible weather patterns
and their likelihoods. These scenarios allow this study to assess
the likely range of grain production and imports--including aid--
that will be needed during the period if nothing else changes:
--Most likely rainfall scenario is an extrapolation into the
future that gives greater weight to the most recent trend
in rainfall.
--Worst case scenario is a continuation of the downward
trend in precipitation experienced during the last 25
years in the region.
--Best case scenario is a return to the weather of 1961-65,
the wettest of the last 25 years. 25X1
This study uses historical data to compute annual average
precipitation levels for 1986-90 consistent with each scenario.
Under the most likely scenario, precipitation will probably
average 432 mm annually over the region for the next five years,
a slight decrease from the 444-mm yearly average experienced
during 1981-85 and well below the long-term (1921-85) average of
561 mm. This projection of a slightly drier climate on average
during the rest of the decade than during 1981-85 is based on the
influence of the dramatic drop in rainfall especially during the
last 10 to 15 years. Moreover, studies show that rainfall
atterns tend. to closely follow trends of the immediate past.
Under the worst case scenario--a continuation of the
downward trend of precipitation of the last 25 years--an average
regional precipitation decrease of about 23 mm, or 421 mm for the
1986-90 period, is estimated. Calculations for the best case
scenario show an annual regional precipitation average of 601 mm,
a dramatic increase from the 1981-85 average of 444 mm.
This study also uses the historical record to estimate rough
probabilities of occurrence for each of the weather patterns
examined. Assuming no climate change, a precipitation regime at
or better than the most likely scenario has a 50-percent
probability of occurrence. A rainfall regime like the worst case
scenario--or lower--has about a 40-percent chance of happening
and a regime approaching the best case scenario--or better--has
less than a 1-percent chance of occurring. Annual precipitation
for individual countries was estimated by regression from the
regional precipitation estimates. (3)
Page 10
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Grain Production Possibilities
Using rainfall assumptions, yield equations, and projections
of area planted, this study estimates future grain production in
each country in the region for the remainder of the decade. Per
capita grain production was then estimated using population
projections. In general, these estimates indicate that prospects
for improving the availability of food through domestic grain
production are bleak. Unless weather conditions during 1986-90
come close to the best case scenario--a highly unlikely event--
per capita output of grain will most likely decline from the
1981-85 levels as a result of the region's rapidly growing
population. Estimates show this to be the case even though trend-
line increases in land under cultivation show some increases in
grain production overall.
Compared with the annual average of 13.3 million tons for
1981-85, average annual grain production for the region in 1986-
90 will be:
--About 14.2 million tons in the worst case weather
scenario--about 1 million tons above the 1981-85
production average.
--About 14.6 million tons, or roughly a 10-percent increase
over the 1981-85 average, if the most likely case scenario
prevails.
--Approximately 17.9 million tons yearly production--or
about a 35-percent increase over the 1981-85 level--under
the best case scenario.
Even in the very unlikely best case, average per capita
grain production for the region would reach only about 167
kilograms (kg) /year--17 percent above the low 1981-85 average
but still about 14 percent below the level needed to meet
recommended minimum nutritional standards.
Projected Grain Import Requirements
Because per capita grain production probably will generally
be insufficient to meet total food needs of the region for the
remainder of the decade, this study attempts to estimate the
requirement for food imports and aid for each of the countries
for the period. Recognizing that no single designator was
available to measure grain needs, grain import/aid requirements
on the basis of two different grain need concepts were projected:
Page 11
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
--Status quo nutritional level. This gives grain supplies
required to maintain per capita grain consumption at the
average 1981-85 levels.
--Minimum nutritional standard. This gives grain supplies
required to meet the recommended minimum standard.
These need standards allowed calculations of a range of
import requirements for each country during 1986-90.
Self-Sufficiency Not in the Cards
Even if the Sahel and the Horn experience the best weather
it is realistic to expect--the very unlikely best case scenario--
it is estimated that the region would still require an average of
about 1.1 million tons per year in imports to maintain food
supplies at recent levels of per capita consumption, and about
3.9 million tons of grain to meet the recommended minimum
standard. Niger, Chad, Burkina, and Sudan would produce--on the
average--sufficient grain to maintain recent nutritional levels
and, except for Chad, would also meet the minimum. Ethiopia,
Somolia, Mauritania, and Mali, on the average, would all
experience production shortfalls and require imports to maintain
consumption at the 1981-85 average level. On the basis of recent
economic trends, it is estimated that 50 to 75 percent of the
required grain--0.5-0.8 million tons of the required 1.1 million
tons of grain per year--would have to be provided as aid,
compared with 1.4 million tons supplied by donors on average
Import Needs Likely To Increase Substantially
It is more likely that weather conditions during the rest of
this decade will be slightly drier than the 1981-85 average--the
most likely scenario. In this case, all eight countries probably
will require yearly grain imports totaling about 3.3 million
tons, or 50 percent more than the 1981-85 average, to maintain
the status quo per capita consumption. Assuming no improvements
in the countries' ability to buy grain on the open market,
approximately 1.7-2.5 million tons of the 3.3 million tons
required would have to be provided by donor countries. According
to this estimate, the hardest hit would be Sudan, with an import
need of almost 1 million tons yearly--400,000 tons above the
1981-85 average. Others with large import needs under this
scenario include Ethiopia, Somalia, and Mali. For the group to
meet the recommended minimum nutritional standards under this
scenario, imports of about 6.3 million tons per year would be
needed--triple the average imports during the 1981-85 period.
Page 12
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
If the weather follows the trend of the last 25 years--the
worst case scenario--about 3.7 million tons of grain imports will
be required yearly to maintain per capita consumption at the
average level of the 1981-85 period. Approximately 2.5-3 million
tons of the required 3.7 million tons would have to be supplied
as aid. The major importers would be Sudan and Ethiopia. To meet
the minimum standards, the eight countries would require a total
of 6.7 million tons of grain imports per year, with Ethiopia's
bulging population needing almost half this amount. Not only are
these import volumes well beyond affordable levels, they also are
substantially greater than any import levels reached to date.
Moreover, these volumes would exceed the capacity of the region's
very limited transportation system to move grain to areas of
need. Consequently, there would be a real risk of a urn to
famine conditions in a number of countries.
Risks for the Region
The countries of the Sahel and the Horn are clearly among
the poorest in the world. Under the best of conditions, their
economies are barely able to meet essential domestic needs and
pay foreign obligations. Despite massive injections of
international food. aid, the cost of importing food has seriously
increased the burden on the balance of payments of the countries
and threatens their financial viability. The annual cost of grain
imports rose on average from $90 million in 1971-75 to $475
million in 1981-85, absorbing almost half of the region's
increase in export earnings. Consequently, the small but hard-won
gains in foreign trade will do little to spur economic
development in the region as long as 25 percent of earnings are
devoted to grain imports.
Without additional international aid, the annual average
cost of grain imports will approach $700 million to hold
nutritional levels stable under the most likely weather scenario.
Countries faced with the highest costs would be Sudan, with more
than $200 million annually, and Ethiopia and Mali, with more than
$100 million each. If, however, the eight countries were to try
to achieve the minimum nutritional standard, the average yearly
cost of grain imports would be about $1.2 billion--clearly well
beyond what the region's economies can afford.
Page 13
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Political and Social Problems Likely To Increase
On average, the food balance in the Sahel and the Horn is
likely to worsen over the rest of the decade. Food shortages over
the next five years will have the potential to further aggravate
political and social problems for most of the eight countries:
--The Governments of Mauritania, Chad, Mali, Sudan, and
Niger could face greater risk of military coups. Indeed,
drought and food shortages were among the root causes of
coups in Mauritania and Niger in the recent past.
--The Governments of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Burkina may not
fall, but refugees fleeing famine in these countries could
create political and economic problems and hardship for
neighboring countries. Such migrations during famines are
common in the region.
--The opportunities for external subversion can be
increased. In particular, the Libyans, who are already
using humanitarian aid as a means to penetrate the western
provinces of Sudan, can be expected to exploit the need
for food to advance their penetration of Niger, Chad, and
Mauritania, if the opportunity arises. Mauritania is
likely to be the target of Moroccan, Algerian, and Soviet
subversion as well.
--More farmers are likely to be driven from their land, thus
hastening the rural-to-urban migration, which is occurring
in all of the countries. Such migrations place additional
financial and managerial burdens on the political and
economic institutions needed to manage agricultural
problems, thus reducing chances for future agricultural
improvement. Most governments in the region are still
struggling to manage enlarged urban populations resulting
from the current drought. Expanded urban populations fed
by displaced subsistence farmers can become a breeding
ground for political instability.
Implications for the West
The Western countries are likely to be asked to provide
substantial food aid to the Sahel and the Horn for the remainder
of the decade, and probably much longer. The chance of a dramatic
increase in annual average rainfall during the next five years
that could change this outlook is 1 in 100. Over the longer term,
if the current population growth rate remains unchecked and the
drier weather trend continues, import requirements could overload
Page 14
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
the region's primitive transport infrastructure, possibly
resulting in widespread famine. 25X1
Much could be gained from Western agrotechnical assistance
and encouragement of policies that favor increased domestic
output. For example, seed companies are particularly well
qualified to assist in the development of drought-resistant grain
varieties. Agrotechnology is clearly an area where the West has a
decided advantage over the Soviet Union. Emphasis on
agrotechnical assistance from the West would contrast sharply
with Moscow's general unwillingness and inability to provide
agrotechnology to Third World countries. To make a program of
technical assistance viable,.the governments of the region would
also need to provide low-cost credit to farmers for purchase of
additional agricultural inputs. Past programs to introduce new
agrotechnology into the region, however, have been largely
ineffective because the governments have failed to provide such
support to the farmers.
Page 15
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Appendix A
Country Perspectives on the Drought
Mauritania
This sparsely populated country of only 1.9 million people
until recently had a pastoral economy based on nomadic herding.
Annual average grain production for 1981-85 amounted to only
50,000 tons, less than 1 percent of the total grain production of
the eight countries. The prolonged drought conditions of the last
25 years desiccated the rangelands, causing a massive influx of
nomads into urban centers and a gradual shift from a diet based
on animal products to one based mainly on cereals. Declining
rainfall levels in the agricultural and range areas of the south
culminated in the worst drought of the century in 1984, when only
21,000 tons of grain were produced. The severe food shortage in
1984/85 was alleviated mostly by food aid--grain--that totaled
135,000 tons. The situation improved dramatically in 1985, when
for the first time in 10 years rainfall approached normal levels
in all regions of the country, resulting in a record grain
production of 86,000 tons. Preliminary estimates of the 1986
grain crop indicate an excellent harvest approaching 100,000
tons, even after accounting for a 10-percent loss as a result of
the grasshopper infestation. Nevertheless, Mauritania would have
to import more than 180,000 tons of grain to meet its
requirements in the MY 1986/87, half of which would have to be
aid.
Mali annually produces 1 million tons of grain--mainly
millet and rice--almost 8 percent of the grain output in the
eight-country region. Although yields have not declined as
dramatically as in some of the other countries, a rapid increase
in population--from 4 million to 8 million in the last 25 years--
has caused per capita grain production to decrease sharply from
an average of 224 kg in 1961-65 to 135 kg in the 1981-85 period.
Over the 1981-85 period, the decrease in per capita production
necessitated average annual grain purchases of 209,000 tons and
additional average yearly food aid of 116,000 tons.
Although above-normal rains and a near-record area planted
to grain contributed to a record 1.4-million-ton grain crop in
1985, it is estimated that Mali needs to import 275,000 tons of
grain in MY 1987 to compensate for local food shortages in the
north. About 105,000 tons of the total will have to be furnished
as aid. Preliminary reports indicate that, overall, Mali has
Page 16
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
obtained a record grain crop of 1.8 million tons in 1986,
following good rains and preventive measures against grasshopper
infestation. Nevertheless, the north is still plagued by grain
shortages caused by localized drought.
Although precipitation has been decreasing overall in the
last 25 years, grain yields in Burkina have been steadily
increasing at a rate of about 11 kg/hectare (ha) per year. The
improvement results from the use of better farming methods and
irrigation countrywide. It also reflects increased output from
the fertile, less-drought-prone southwest part of the country
where major progress has been made in the eradication of
rinderpest and tsetse fly. Nevertheless, the country suffers from
localized droughts, especially in the northern and eastern
regions, and from inadequate distribution networks that prevent
surplus cereal production from reaching drought-stricken areas.
For example, the food shortfalls in the drought-stricken northern
and eastern regions in 1983 and 1984 could have been alleviated
because overall grain production was probably adequate, but the
surpluses elsewhere could not be moved to the deficit regions.
Grain production in the 1960s and 1970s was sufficient to
absorb the impact of the population growth on food requirements.
The situation worsened, however, in the first half of this
decade. Despite increasing yields, grain imports had to be
increased nearly fourfold--from 65,000 tons in MY 1980/81 to
241,000 tons in MY 1984/85--to cover the domestic grain
shortfall. Increased rainfall in 1985 gave temporary relief, and
a record 1.6-million-ton crop greatly improved the food situation
by yearend. Prospects for the 1986 grain crop were generally very
favorable; only some areas in the north faced a poor harvest
because of dry conditions and the grasshopper infestation. It is
estimated that Burkina will need about 70,000 tons of additional
imports and/or aid in MY 1987 to meet its requirements.
Niger
Using grain production as a measure, Niger has been another
better-than-average agricultural performer over the long term,
notwithstanding the decreasing precipitation levels since the
1960s. The area planted to grain reportedly has doubled over the
last 25 years and output has increased by 80 percent. Sharply
decreasing precipitation levels in the 1980s, however, reversed
an improvement in yields that had taken place in the 1970s and
that had brought Niger close to grain self-sufficiency. The 1984
Page 17
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
drought was especially severe, causing the lowest grain yields in
nine years and the need to import record levels of grain in MY
1984/85. The return of the rains in the summer of 1985 resulted
in overall good grain production, although several northern
regions continued to suffer the effects of long-term drought.
Although Niger's per capita grain production of 277 kg during the
1981-85 period was the highest of the eight countries surveyed,
it was not sufficient to meet food requirements. Grain imports,
including purchases and aid, averaged 155,000 tons annually
during the period. Prospects were for an above-average grain crop
in 1986, with only slight losses expected because of localized
grasshopper infestations. It is estimated that Niger needs to
import only about 18,000 tons of grain to meet its requirements
in MY 1987, half of which to be provided as aid.
The precipitation decrease during the last 25 years caused a
decline of almost 40 percent in Chadian grain production from the
early 1960s to the mid-1980s. The production shortfall coupled
with a steep increase in population--from 3 million in 1960 to 5
million in 1985--reduced per capita grain production from 222
kg /year in 1961-65 to 93 kg/year in the 1981-85 period. The
severity of the recent drought has caused the level of Lake Chad
to drop perilously low, threatening fisheries and agricultural
projects. Indeed, the 1984 drought was so severe that grain
production was reduced to 260,000 tons, little more than half of
average production. The prolonged drought also decimated
livestock herds, causing many nomads to shift to a dietary
mainstay of cereals, further increasing grain consumption
requirements.
Increased precipitation during the 1985 rainy season
resulted in a 690,000-ton harvest--the best in 20 years--and
brought considerable relief to the famine-stricken country. Even
with a substantial 1985 harvest and 163,000 tons of grain aid
received in 1985, Chad still needs to receive 19,000 tons of
grain aid in MY 1987. the 1986 grain crop 25X1
was above average, although up to 300,000 ha of cropland were
threatened by grasshoppers and locusts, which may have
considerably reduced the harvest if controls were not effective.
The war with Libya is also significantly disrupting agricultural
activities and the transportation of surplus grain to deficit
areas. 25X1
Despite decreasing precipitation and grain yields over the
last 25 years, Sudan's grain production reportedly has increased
Page 18
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
from an average 1.6 million tons in 1961-65 to 2.9 million tons
in 1981-85. The Sudanese were able to increase output by nearly
tripling the area planted to grain during the period. Between the
early 1960s and 1980 annual per capita grain production increased
from 125 kg to 147 kg, a noteworthy achievement considering that
the population increased almost 60 percent during the same
period--from about 11.8 million to 18.7 million. However, a
drastic decrease in precipitation in the 1980s and
correspondingly low grain yields reversed the trend toward food
self-sufficiency. Indeed, the 1984 drought, which cut normal
grain production more than one-third, caused Sudan to import a
record 1.2 million tons of grain in 1985, more than two times the
1984 level. In 1985 good rains and a record area planted to grain
reversed the trend and resulted in a record 4.6-million-ton grain
crop. The 1986 harvest apparently was good, mostly because of .
sufficient rains in the major millet and sorghum regions in the
east. The insurgency in the southern areas of the country,
however, is hampering grain distribution and causing local
shortages. It is estimated that Sudan needs to import about
400,000 tons of grain, 75 percent through aid, to meet its
Ethiopia
Ethiopia's grain yields have been rising at an annual trend
rate of almost 24 kg/ha over the last 25 years, despite the fact
that precipitation levels have been decreasing. Nevertheless,
reduction of grain area and steep population growth over the last
25 years have greatly reduced the per capita grain production. As
the population increased from 21 million in 1961 to 43 million in
1985, per capita grain production fell from about 214 kg/year in
1961-65 to 135 kg/year in 1981-85. Average yields have risen
primarily because of greater use of fertilizers. The tenfold
increase in use of fertilizers--from less than 1 kg/ha in the
1960s to more than 10 kg/ha in the 1979-83 period--makes Ethiopia
the largest user of mineral fertilizers among the countries
included in this study. Higher average yields may also reflect
the abandonment of less productive land as a result of internal
Severe drought, aggravated by civil war, lowered grain
production in 1984 by 650,000 tons, compared with the previous
five-year average. As a result, record grain purchases and aid
were required to sustain the famine-stricken population. Near-
normal rainfall in 1985 improved the situation somewhat, although
the estimated 5.2-million-ton grain harvest still was not
sufficient to meet the grain needs of the population. Estimates
of 1986 grain crops indicate an above-average grain production of
Page 19
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
more than 6 million tons, about 1 million tons short of
Ethiopia's needs. Carryover stocks from aid received in 1985 and
1986, however, limit 1987 grain aid needs to less than 500,000
Somalia is not a large grain producer, its agricultural
sector is based mainly on livestock. Somalia's average grain
production--450,000 tons for 1981-85--represents only 3 percent
of the total grain production of the eight countries of the
region. Grain production and yields reportedly have increased
during the last 10 years. The increase resulted mainly from the
expansion of agriculture into fertile river basins in the south
and the increased planting of corn, which produces higher yields
than other grains.
Somalia has been heavily dependent on grain imports--most of
it in the form of aid--to meet its grain requirements. In the
period 1981-85 it imported more than 40 percent of its annual
average grain consumption of 760,000 tons. Even with a record
1985 harvest of 619,000 tons and the good harvest expected in
1986, Somalia still will have to import about 175,000 tons--again
mostly aid--to meet its grain needs in MY 1987.
Page 20
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
FOOTNOTES
1. Precipitation is equal everywhere along an isohyet line.
2. 1 July - 30 June.
3. A correlation analysis shows that individual country
precipitation is highly correlated with the regional
precipitation, except for Somalia whose rainfall regime is mostly
controlled by wind currents from the Indian Ocean.
Page 21
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6
Secret
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP97R00694R000700250001-6