SENIOR REVIEW PANEL PROPOSAL FOR AN INTERAGENCY PAPER ON THE INTRA-REGIONAL MILITARY BALANCE IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA-CARIBBEAN REGION, 1981-85

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98S00099R000400630010-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 26, 2012
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: June 3, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/26 : CIA-RDP98S00099R000400630010-6
NFAC 3386-81
3 June 1981
I
MEMORANDUM FOR: DD/NFA ??
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Proposal for an Interagency
Paper on the Intra-Regional Military Balance in
the Central America-Caribbean Region, 1981-85
1. The Panel suggests a clear and present need for an
interagency study of the military balance within the Central
American-Caribbean region projected through 1985. We think
the absence of such a paper represents a serious estiiative
gap-
2. The study could be either an NIE or an IIM.
Because of the region's traditional and continum".& strategic,
political and psychological importante to the US, we think
an NIE is more appropriate. The matter is too important--
and has too many political and economic ramifications--to
leave solely to DOD/DIA.
3. The central aim of the paper would be to identify
and asses.s the current and developing centers of military
power within the region and evaluate their capabilities to:
(a) project their influence within the region, now and
through 1985, and (b) use military power in ways inimical to
US interests during that time frame. An evaluation of
the forces and capabilities of each country in the region
is inherent in the study.
4. The purposes of the paper would be to (a) inform
and alert US policymakers to the comprehensive and coordi-
nated nature of potential military threats to the United
States and the West now present and developing in the area;
and (b) generate the required analytic and collection
resources, establish a new priority of effort needed to keep
the estimate current after publication, and avoid the lengthy
gaps in our intelligence coverage of the area that have
occurred in the past.
9EGF
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/26: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400630010-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/26: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400630010-6
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Proposal for an Interagency
Paper on the Intra-Regional Military Balance in
the Central America-Caribbean Region, 198l-85
5. A major focus of the paper would-be Cuba since it
is the major indigenous power center in the region. In
assessing Cuban capabilities, now and in 1985, several
different aspects must be addressed:
a. Cuba's basic capability to defend the island;
this entails the production of a comprehensive Cuban
order of battle as well as an assessment of the combat
effectiveness of Cuban forces.
b. Cuban capabilities to project power in the
region; with their own integral forces, and with
Soviet assistance.
c. The effect on Cuban capabilities in the
Central America-Caribbean region of the existence
and deployment of Cuban expeditionary proxy forces
in Africa and the Middle East.
d. The use of Cuba by the Soviets as a major
base--air fields, naval bases, communications and
intercept sites, and the like--and the implications for
the US of this Soviet presence. In a war with the
Soviet Union, for example, or under conditions of
severely heightened tension, the US could not afford to
ignore the problem and would have to take *,,tops to deny
the use of the island as a Soviet base.
e. The indispensability of the Soviet role in
providing the military materiel and assistance required
by Cuban forces.
6. Another principal focus would be on Nicaragua as
an emerging power center which, as a third generation
surrogate, potentially might seek to dominate Central
America. The Soviet/Cuban role in fostering and supporting
the Sandinista and other revolutionary movements in Central
America should be an integral part of the assessment.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/26: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400630010-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/26 : CIA-RDP98S00099R000400630010-6
I
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Proposal for an Interagency
Paper on the Intra-Regional Military Balance in
the Central America-Caribbean Region, 1981-85
7. The concluding parts of the study should evaluate
the vulnerabilities of the principal power centers and
address the implications of the developing military situa-
tion in the region for the US now and through 1985.
8. In order to minimize the contentious net assess-
ment issue, the study probably should not attempt to assess
the impact of any US military presence in the area on the
indigenous military balance, but for the most part address
only indigenous forces. The estimate should, however, take
into account both the proximity of US bases and forces to
the region as an inhibition against the employment of local
forces and the possible interposition of Soviet combat
forces in the region..
9. The new Administration has been reviewing the
situation in the region and is seeking to develop a cohesive
US policy towards Cuba and the larger Caribbean region.
This policy development process will no doubt be a con-
tinuing one. We believe an NIE along lines indicated above
would be a major input to this policy.
William Leonhart
CC: C/NIC
NI0/LA
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/26: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400630010-6