THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO FACE US INTELLIGENCE AND POLICYMAKERS IN THE 1990S

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98S00099R000400800011-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2012
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: October 16, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400800011-6
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
Senior Review Panel 16 October 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: NIO at Large (Mr. Ford)
SUBJECT: The World Environment Likely to Face
US Intelligence and Policymakers in
the 1990s
1. I have reviewed your first cut on "The world environment
likely to face US policymaking in the 1990s." I think it is an
excellent beginning.
2. You might wish to consider the following:
a. Most of the hardware which will significantly
influence the environment in the 1990s is now in service or
it is sufficiently well defined in a design stage to be
identified and quantified as a factor in influencing events
in the 1990s. We can anticipate incremental improvements
rather than revolutionary changes in weapons or war-making
potential.
b. You might consider a discussion of the implications
of the continuing, broadening gap between the advanced
nations and the LDCs, especially those in Africa.
c. I wonder if there is any hard intelligence to
support the conclusions of paragraph 2? Could this be
wishful thinking on the part of the Western world? The Free
World is beset with a variety of major economic challenges,
social unrest is far more easily fanned into flames in a free
society than in a totalitarian society. Is there evidence to
indicate that the spirit of nationalism is less strong behind
the Iron Curtain than it is in the Free World?
d. Paragraph 3. It would appear logical that Denmark,
Belgium and Holland will further restrict their participation
in NATO military activities.
CL BY Signer
UADR
DECL
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400800011-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400800011-6
SECRET
e. Paragraph 5. US influence will seems likely to
recede from large areas of the Middle East due to religious
intolerance and rabid nationalism. At least tourism should
be reduced.
f. Page 6. It would seem a reasonable speculation that
the military dictatorship in Panama will be overturned or at
least challenged by leftist forces supported by Cuba and
Nicaragua. Therefore, reliance on the Panama Canal to
provide flexibility for naval forces will be questionable.
g. Page 12. China with its enormously talented
population cannot have completed its reorganization in the
1990s but the outlines of its success or failure will be
evident. It would seem likely that it will succeed and that
its industrious people will accomplish some measure of
success similar to that of Hongkong and Singapore. The
impact of their economic clout in the late 1990s should be
significant throughout the Pacific basin and no doubt in
world trade. Should not China's role be examined?
h. Page 13 and 14, Whither France? Will France become
the great spoiler? Will it abandon its close ties with
Germany and go fishing in Africa or the Far East?
i. There does not seem to be much discussion of the
application of science and technology on the intelligence
gathering process. Will our computers let us read hostile
traffic in real time? Will satellites be able to penetrate
cover and concealment, fog and darkness?
3. Food. We had quite a time when oil got scarce a
decade or more ago. What would a few years of bad crops in
the US and the world do to international policy?
k. It would seem that the Western world has the
capability to raise and maintain adequate military forces to
sustain its independence. There are mixed signals emerging
on our will to accept the sacrifices required. What is the
estimate of our political will to stay the course?
ODCI/SRP
Distribution:
Original - Addressee
1 - SRP File
1 - SRP Chrono
2
CFrRFT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP98S00099R000400800011-6