SENIOR REVIEW PANEL REVIEW OF ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98S00099R000400830011-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 12, 2012
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: September 17, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/12 : CIA-RDP98S00099R000400830011-3
Mc Director of Ccofral Intelligence
W.ist WI I) t IS
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review 4f Estimates
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel composed of former
Ambassador to Yugoslavia William Leonhart, retired General William McCaffrey,
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Willis Armstrong,
and Herbert Rothenberg, a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative Adgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the Panel said it would rebard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
During the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates compared with 124 during the years 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East, East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Esf 4e titles.
Attachments
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nRciassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/12 : CIA-RDP98S00099R000400830011-3
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/12 : CIA-RDP98500099R000400830011-3
SECRET
Subject Matter of National Estimates
1977-80
1981-84
Soviet Political
2
11
Soviet Military
15
35
Soviet Economic
1
3
Soviet Space
2
6
China
1
6
East European Political
6
10
Western Europe/NATO
17
21
Latin America
15
36
Middle East/North Africa
22
47
South Asia
6
9
East Asia
9
22
Southern Africa
15
23
Nuclear Proliferation
5
17
Global Resources
4
11
Terrorism
4,
2
3
Narcotics
None
6
B/C Warfare
2
8
SECRET
-114- 274
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/12 : CIA-RDP98500099R000400830011-3