CIA DIDN'T FORESEE 'NATIONAL REVOLUTION' IN IRAN, CHIEF SAYS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-00498R000100160040-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 14, 2007
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: February 5, 1979
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP99-00498R000100160040-3 STAT
ARTICLE AP: E-S=' THE WASHINGTON POST
,----- ON PAGE 5 February 1979
CLAL lu un, t -r. oresee
In Iran, Chief days
"National Revolution'
By Warren Brown -
W3sbinrton Post statt Writer
Central Intelligence Agency Director Stansfield
Turner said yesterday that Iran is experiencing "a
truly national Arevolution" that has caught the
United States and nearly everyone else by surprise.
Turner said they CIA had been aware of wide-
spread dissidence =in Iran stemming from religious,
cultural, political and economic forces. "It was like
a series of volcanoes bubbling up. But it certainly
appeared that- no -one of them would bubble up so
much that the government couldn't control it," he
said on "Issues and Answers" (ABC-WJLA).
"What we didn't forecast was that ... a 78-year-
old cleric who had been in -exile for 14 years would
be the catalyst that would bring these forces to-
gether, and that we would have one huge volcano-
a truly national revolution-
said. the CIA "clearly would like to have
Turner
done better" in gauging, the Ayatollah Ruhollab
Khomeini's influence and in.understanding the re-
surgence of the -Islamic movement. (Khomeini has
called for the creation -of' an Islamic republic in
Iran.) But Turner said the strength of-the movement
was a surprise-to, everyone, including Shah Moham-
mad Reza Pahlavi,- who left Iran Jan. 16 on an in-
definite "vacation." The shah was the initial target
of the revolution
"I would suggest even Ayatollah Khomeini didn't
realize how'- well- his force was.;-moving along."
Turner said.
The CIA must "do as better- job atlooking at the
socio-political. happenings in countries," the CIA
chief. said.. "It's not easy; ... We're not No. 2 (in in
telligence 'g athiring). . But -we're going ?to- try . hard-
er."
Turner said he knew of "no other intelligence
service that predicted trouble in Iran." Of the Suvi- {
ets he said: "Particularly because they are a police-
state, they felt that the bubbles of discontent would
be kept under control. It wasn't until it became
clear that. the shah's days were numbered that they
came out as stridently as they did against the
shah's government."
Asked if he thought the shah had a chance to re-
gain power, Turner answered:
"I would want to say that there clearly are wide- j
spread differences of opinion inside Iran as to "
which way the country should go.. For me to take a
position on one side or the other might be inter-
preted as attempting to influence those events... ,
We all- want this to come out correctly and peace-
fully in accordance with what. the Iranian people
want. And I don't want to meddle in that by any-
thing I say-"
Turner, whose agency was criticized last year for.
its information on the situation. in Iran, said. "I be-,
lieve we have very good information today. We are
able to keep our decision makers as well informed
as possible." He declined to say what effect the up-
heavals might have on U.S. intelligence-monitoring
stations in Iran, which borders on the Soviet Union.
Turner. said that if Khomeini forms a government
that instable and has the support of the people, "it's .
quite possible" that Iran could again become a good
U.S. ally. The shah's government turned out not to
be a good ally because "it couldn't stay in power,"
On other matters, Turner said-'-'-' --f
? He doesn't believe there will be a war between.
China and the Soviet Union. However, he said "a lot
of adverse rhetoric" between the leaders of the two
countries has created "a dangerous situation."
? The. CIA cooperated fully with the FBI and
Maryland- law enforcement officials in investigat'
ing the death of John A. Paisley. a former high-level
CIA official whose body was found floating in the-`I
Chesapeake Bay Oct. 1- He had a bullet wound in :I
the head: . f
? Allegations that Paisley was linked to a major
CIA intelligence breach are false.
STAT
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP99-00498R000100160040-3