CIA CHIEF ADMITS IRAN FORECAST GAFF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-00498R000100160043-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 14, 2007
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: February 5, 1979
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

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Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP99-00498R000100160043-0
Article appeal-eu .' r e Ur uar y i'i r 7
on page 2 J
CIA chhel
admit's- Iran
forecast
WASHINGTON (AP) - CIA
Director Stansfield Turner con-
ceded yesterday the agency failed j
to predict the severity of political
upheavals in Iran, but added that
the rest. of world's intelligence
agencies didn't"do any better.
":: "Clearly, we would have liked to
have done better," Turner said.
"But I would like to point out that
forecasting political upheav-
als and military coups and unex-
'pected election results are prob-
ably-the most difficult parts of
intelligence, much more difficult I
than military or economic intelli-,
`gence.
Turner said, however, that he
knew of no other intelligence agen-
cies in the world that predicted the
Iranian upheaval. He also noted
that no journalists or scholars pre-
dicted that the shah would be forc-
ed to leave the country.
T`As we . reconstruct our report-1
""ink over lash summer and fall,,
' clearly we saw lots of dissidents,"
Turner explained, "for religious
reasons, for cultural, for political,-
for economic reasons.
"It was like a series of volcanoes
bubbling. But it certainly appear-
ed-that no one of them would bub-
ble up so much that the govern-
ment couldn't control it.
".What we didn't. forecast was
A hat a single man, a 78-year-old
-cleric who had been in exile for 15
"- years, would be a catalyst that
would bring these forces together,
and" we had one huge volcano, a
truly national revolution.
It means that we have to do_
.y better at looking at the socio-eco-
nomic ' happenings in countries,".
. Turner said.: "It's not easy .. -
,, but we'll try harder. .....
The CIA director also insisted
that he was'not'distressed when
President Carter openly criticized
CIA intelligence on Iran as inade-
quate.
"One is pleased when one's boss
tells you how you can serve him
better," Turner said. - -
Turner was interviewed on the
".ABC television program "Issues
and Answers.
STAT
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP99-00498R000100160043-0