TURNER PREDICTS COMPETITION FOR WORLD OIL SUPPLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-00498R000100200058-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 15, 2007
• Sequence Number: 58
• Publication Date: April 23, 1980
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP99-00498R000100200058-9
'V ARTICLE APPr Arm
ON PAGE
PHILADELPHIA INZUIRr^R
23 APRIL 1980
? Even without a war or other sort of }
crisis in the Mideast, Turner said,
there will be a shortage of oil on the
world market during the 1980s.
Members of the committee, who
believe that the. United States should
build a domestic oil reserve for emer.
gencies, urged him to make a specific
prediction on the odds of a cutoff.
"I do not want to forecast a high.
probability," Turner said, "but the
possibility certainly does exist ... it
certainly can happen
"'
.
Turner said that Saudi Arabia, the
t t major Mideast producer, may reduce
By MikeShanahan But he added that tougher action, daily to 8.5 million barrels sometime
As ga?edPreu including- "covert : subversion, in- this summer.
and military action "can- .
WASHINGTON -~ CIA Director He said production in"Iran is likely
Stansfield Turner said yesterday that not be ruled out to decline because of deteriorating
equipment and :untrained oil field
Combined with diminishing pro- potentially' "vicious" competition duction from Mideast producers,
over a diminishing worldwide sup orkers.
ply of oil will develop in this decade. - Turner- said, the smaller Soviet oil woThere is increasing sabotage in
In a rare public forecast of the in- supply will add "another potentially the oil fields adiscontent among
ternational energy outlook, Turner destabilizing ingredient to an area oil w 'I fields and n the dipresent scontent
nt!
manage" the Soviet Union' would begin ? (the Persian Gulf) which already has anew," Turner said.
importing oil over the next few " experienced wrenching political Iran T currently producing about
... '
years, putting increased pressure on events in the past year: "It also is likely that the.'soviets 2.5 million barrels of oil daily, about
already tight Mted Sta es and. 1.5 million for export, mainly to Ja-
For the United States and other will be increasingly active in the pan: That country announced that it
Western powers, Turner. said, "The diplomatic arena in the Middle East," new price
cardinal issue is how vicious the he said, "holding out as a carrot the would a barrel, decline to and pay Iran Iran's on ne price
struggle for energy supplies will glimmer of a stable political atmo-' of $35 a s d Iran no Japan. oil become." sphere if the gulf states become more (The Saudi Arabian price is about any
Asked whether a major cutoff of cooperative on oil and political mat- a barrel.)
Mideast oil to the United States was ters. Japanese leaders have been hint-
likely during the 1980s, the CIA chief "Moscow is already making the . Jate the derseh States should,
said it "certainly can happen." point that Middle Eastern oil is not help make up any shortage, but Turn.
of the West."
the exclusive preserve -? --------- ---- er said that an existing temporary
Energy Committee, which has been abundance that oil on the world mar-
of a tightening supp ssupply supply of oil. implications ket probably will make that unneces
of a t - ~ ?'~ ? '
"We believe that world oil produc- sary..
In the .long run, however, only
lion is probably at o near its peak stringent conservation policies by e he will dm through the o the United States and other oil-con-
he told committee members, who suming nations will, ~ avert major
unsuccessfully encouraged him toeconomic disruption 11 said.
speak openly about the likelihood of-' international. energy crises over the-
next to years.
Turner did say that before-the end
of this year; Soviet oil production
11.7 million barrels daily last year ''
would peak. (A barrel contains about
42 gallons)'
That country's search for- new
sources of oil, Turner said, will force
Soviet.'leaders to make "extremely
painful" economic, political and mili-
tary choices to keep' the-, economy
from sharp decline' 'He. said the Sovi-
ets may use diplomatic pressures or -
barter arrangements for weapons
with Mideast Producers
production from 9.5 million barrels
Approved For Release 2007/06/15: CIA-RDP99-00498R000100200058-9