HEAD OF CIA PREDICTS FURTHER ROUGH GOING FOR SOVIETS--AND TROUBLE FOR GORBACHEV

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-01448R000401660037-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2012
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: May 31, 1991
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

ST
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP99-01448R000401660037-2
The Wasnington oust
The New York "mes
The Washington T mes
The Wall Street Journal
The Christian Science Monitor
New York Daily News
USA Today
The ChICago Tribune
l; ~ALTImARE t.. i ya~R
Date 3[ M 141 1991
Head of CIA predicts further rough going
for soviets--and trouble for Gorbachev
By Mark Matthews
Washington Bureau of The Sun
WASHINGTON - The outgoing
iirector of central intelligence said
yesterday that Soviet President Mik-
hail S. Gorbachev's future is "in-
,reasingly uncertain" and that grow-
ing instability has aroused new
concern that some Soviet weapons
could fall into the wrong hands.
William H. Webster said that the
Soviet Union's efforts to reform its
collapsing economy so far had
mounted to mere "talk," and he pre-
dicted an inevitable departure of re-
publics from the union in spite of
economic pressure from the Krem-
lin.
His bleak assessment, in a fare-
well briefing with a group of report-
ers, came as envoys dispatched by
Mr. Gorbachev continued meeting
with senior Bush administration offi-
cals In a bid to persuade the United
States that the Soviet leadership is
Serious about economic reform and
deserving of Western aid to help
achieve it.
As the envoys, led by Yevgeny
Primakov, prepared to meet with
president Bush today, administ -
tmn officials said the steps outlined
so far fall short of the fundamental
reforms required.
They also remained uncertain
whether the Soviet leadership has
the political will to launch the pain-
f41 changes required.
? A key question is whether Mr.
Gorbachev fully embraces a far-
reaching reform plan still being de-
veloped by Soviet economist Grigory
4avlinksi and a group of Harvard
specialists.
Mr. Webster makes a practice of
tiying to steer clear of policy debates,
but he said that the Soviets lack "a
clear game plan" for using the aid
and have avoided tackling the basics
of economic growth.
In the years that he has watched
Moses didn't get to
the Promised Land,
and this may be the
case with Gorbachev. 99
WILLIAM H. WEBSTER
Retiring CIA chief
them. "I cannot really see any specif-
ic focus on improvement of infra-
structure - the things that make
our system work here, good roads,
good rails, good telecommunications,
good electricity," Mr. Webster said.
Earlier this month, U.S. intelli-
gence agencies predicted a continu-
ing sharp decline in the Soviet econ-
omy.
Mr. Webster said that "Gorba-
chev's future is increasingly uncer-
tain." Despite a more decisive recent
shift toward reform, "the question re-
mains, is it too late for Gorbachev?"
"Moses didn't get to the Promised
Land. and this may be the case with
Gorbachev.
"He has unleashed a set of forces
that went beyond his own vision, it
seems to me, and he has not man-
aged to deal with the question of pri-
vatization [and[ the other things that
are necessary to achieve real market
reform.
"It's all talk."
Mr. Gorbachev may lose the ini-
tiative in reform to republic leaders
such as the Russian Federation's
Boris N. Yeltztn, Mr. Webster said.
At this point, those leaders may
see more advantage in keeping a
centrist leader such as Mr. Gorba-
chev as president than in seeking his
ouster, while nevertheless pursuing
their own agendas, the CIA chief
said.
But he predicted that the Soviet
Union was on the "path" toward
splintering and that as many as five
republics could follow Georgia's lead
and assert their independence.
"I think we will see efforts to pull
the last remaining economic strings
from the center to make departure
more costly," but that won't reverse
the trend, he said.
As internal struggles mount, So-
viet leaders are showing increasing
concern about the safety of their
weapons arsenal and about protect-
ing missile sites and controls from
falling into the wrong hands, Mr.
Webster said.
"We see them paying more atten-
tion to this in ways that suggest they
are not as confident as they've been
in the past that everything can stay
in place." .
This, in turn, "lowers the level of
our confidence," Mr. Webster said.
The safety of Soviet weapons sys-
tems is something that the United
States will have to "pay a lot of atten-
tion to as the central government
loses its control on the ground in
areas where different political views
obtain or where there is more ethnic
violence."
Mr. Webster contrasted the Soviet
failure to invest In infrastructure
with Iraqi President Saddam Hus-
sein's all-out effort, since losing the
Persian Gulf war and crushing a re-
bellion, to get "electricity back into
shape" and repair bridges.
Lacking oil revenue, Mr. Hussein
appears to be using the brute power
of a military dictatorship to get the
work done, Mr. Webster said.
The Iraqi leader is "very much in
charge" and will remain so without a
"continued concerted policy by coali-
tion members to encourage those
things that will result in his remov-
al," Mr. Webster said.
The Bush administration has
ruled out easing economic sanctions
while Mr. Hussein remains in power,
and Iraq's inability to export oil may
be crucial over time in securing his
downfall, Mr. Webster said.
President Bush has named Depu-
ty National Security Adviser Robert
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP99-01448R000401660037-2