PROPOSED OUTLINE FOR REMARKS BY RICHARD J. KERR DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE AMERICAN DEFENSE PREPAREDNESS ASSOCIATION DENVER, COLORADO

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-01448R000401710003-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2012
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 11, 1989
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP99-01448R000401710003-3
PROPOSED OUTLINE
FOR REMARKS BY
RICHARD J. KERR
DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
TO THE
AMERICAN DEFENSE PREPAREDNESS ASSOCIATION
DENVER, COLORADO
OCTOBER 11, 1989
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I. INTRODUCTION
A. BUSH U.N. SPEECH, SEPTEMBER 25, UNDERSCORES' CHANGE IN
THE EAST-WEST RELATIONSHIP.
1. WILLINGNESS BY U.S. AND U.S.S.R. TO DEAL
CONSTRUCTIVELY AND CANDIDLY WITH DIFFERENCES.
2. ACHIEVEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE IN ARMS CONTROL.
B. THE SOVIETS HAVE COMPELLING REASONS FOR GREATER
COOPERATION WITH THE WEST.
1. SOVIET SYSTEM IS IN CRISIS.
2. SOVIETS ARE DRIVEN TO ENSURE OWN ECONOMIC SURVIVAL.
3. TO DO THIS, THEY ARE ATTEMPTING TO BETTER BALANCE
THEIR CIVILIAN AND MILITARY SECTORS.
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II. THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP HAS ANNOUNCED THAT SOVIET NATIONAL
SECURITY POLICIES ARE TO BE REVISED.
A. SOVIET NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY IS TO BE BASED ON
"REASONABLE, SUFFICIENT DEFENSE."
1. THIS INVOLVES RESTRUCTURING SOVIET STANDING FORCES.
A. ADOPTING A "DEFENSIVE" FORCE POSTURE IN THE
BELIEF THAT WAR WITH THE WEST IS UNLIKELY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
B. EFFORT HAMPERED BY LACK OF COORDINATED
STRATEGY AND RESISTANCE FROM VARIOUS ELEMENTS
WHICH FEEL THREATENED BY CHANGE.
2. THIS POLICY CALLS FOR UNILATERAL FORCE WITHDRAWALS
AND REDUCTIONS ANNOUNCED BY GORBACHEV LAST DECEMBER AT
THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY. SPECIFICALLY:
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A. 50,000 MEN AND 5,000 TANKS ARE TO BE
WITHDRAWN FROM SOVIET FORCES IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA,
EAST GERMANY, AND HUNGARY.
B. 10,000 TANKS, 8,500 ARTILLERY SYSTEMS, AND
800 COMBAT AIRCRAFT ARE TO BE ELIMINATED FROM THE
ATLANTIC-TO-THE-URALS ZONE.
C. OVERALL SOVIET MILITARY MANPOWER IS TO BE
REDUCED BY 500,000.
3. NEW POLICY REQUIRES REDUCTION IN MILITARY BUDGET.
GORBACHEV REVEALED PLANS EARLIER THIS YEAR TO REDUCE
THE MILITARY BUDGET BY 14.2 PERCENT AND WEAPONS
PRODUCTION BY 19.5 PERCENT BY 1991.
4. LEADERSHIP PROMISES TO REDIRECT DEFENSE INDUSTRY
RESOURCES TO CIVIL PROGRAMS.
A. WILL USE SKILLED MILITARY MANPOWER IN THE
CIVILIAN SECTOR.
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B. WILL CONVERT EXISTING MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO
CIVIL USE.
C. BUT THERE ARE MANY OBSTACLES TO SUCCESSFUL REVISION OF
SOVIET NATIONAL SECURITY POLICIES.
1. RESISTANCE TO CHANGE BY THE PARTY AND BUREAUCRACY.
2. LEADERSHIP DISTRACTED BY DOMESTIC PROBLEMS.
A. STRIKES -- WORKERS NOT REAPING REWARDS OF
REFORMS FAST ENOUGH. COAL MINERS' STRIKE IN
SIBERIA AND THE UKRAINE IN JULY COST THE STATE
BILLIONS OF RUBLES.
B. ETHNIC UNREST -- UPHEAVAL IN BALTIC
REPUBLICS, MOLDAVIA, AND AZERBAIJAN PUTS
NATIONALISTS ON COLLISION COURSE WITH MOSCOW.
C. OVERWHELMING ECONOMIC PROBLEMS -- CENTRAL
PRICING SYSTEM, HYPERINFLATION, AND WEAK CURRENCY.
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III. CHALLENGES FOR THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY.
A. DETERMINE WHAT IS SIGNIFICANT AND WHAT IS RHETORIC.
1. EVALUATE INCREASING AVAILABILITY OF INFORMATION
UNDER GLASNOST.
2. VERIFY REDUCTIONS IN THE MILITARY AND IN DEFENSE
SPENDING.
3. DETERMINE HOW FAR THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP IS WILLING
TO GO IN CARRYING OUT ITS PLANS AND INTENTIONS TO
REFORM.
B. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF DISINTEGRATING CENTER IN SOVIET
UNION.
1. POTENTIAL FOR BALKANIZATION.
2. CHANGING BASES OF POWER AND EMERGENCE OF
MULTIPOLAR WORLD.
3. SHIFTING ALLIANCES AND PRESSURE ON NATO.
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IV. CONCLUSION
A. DESPITE DOMESTIC PROBLEMS AND ANNOUNCED PLANS TO
TRANSFER MILITARY RESOURCES TO THE CIVILIAN SECTOR, SOVIET
MILITARY STRENGTH REMAINS FORMIDABLE.
B. IN THIS ERA OF CHANGE, INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION AND
ANALYSIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT.
C. WE MUST BE PARTICULARLY ALERT TO INCREASING ILLEGAL
SOVIET ACQUISITION OF WESTERN TECHNOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT.
1. THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY MUST IDENTIFY SOVIET
NEEDS FOR WESTERN EQUIPMENT THAT WOULD BENEFIT THEIR
FUTURE WEAPON SYSTEMS.
2. MUST HELP POLICYMAKERS MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS
ABOUT EXPORT CONTROL IN AN ERA IN WHICH INTERNATIONAL
TRADE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT.
D. INFORMATION THE U.S. BUSINESS COMMUNITY VOLUNTARILY
PROVIDES IS IMPORTANT TO US.
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1. CAN HELP THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IN MAKING
ACCURATE ASSESSMENTS ON ISSUES SUCH AS TECHNOLOGY
TRANSFER.
2. THIS INFORMATION WILL HELP OUR POLICYMAKERS DEAL
EFFECTIVELY WITH CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA
WITHOUT SACRIFICING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY.
E. UNDERSTANDING THE CHANGING EAST-WEST RELATIONSHIP --
AND EXAMINING IT IN LIGHT OF ALL THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE
TO US -- IS CRITICAL. WHAT HAPPENS IN THE U.S.S.R. AFFECTS
EASTERN EUROPE, WESTERN EUROPE, AND NATO, AND ULTIMATELY
AFFECTS OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEST.
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