CIA REPORT ON "THE CHANGING REVOLUTIONARY PROCESS IN LATIN AMERICA"

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0
Release Decision: 
RIFLIM
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
3
Document Creation Date: 
January 11, 2017
Document Release Date: 
October 25, 2011
Sequence Number: 
66
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 22, 1971
Content Type: 
MEMO
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0.pdf203.28 KB
Body: 
/ No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/03/19: LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0 26767 4-- _ MEMORANDUM A NATIONAL SECURITY CO CIL MEMORANDUM FOR:? DR. KISSINGER FROM: Ashley C. Hewitt SUBJECT: ACTION March 22, 1971 CIA Report on "The Changing Revolutionary Process in Latin America" Attached at Tab A is an excellent analysis of the ature of the revolutionary process in Latin America, wbicj1ias been forwarded to you by Director Helms of CIA. In his no to you, he recalls your conversation with the President on h5ach 5; and as a conse- quence of that conversation, he thought ,you might be interested in seeing this paper. I have summarized the study in the form of a memo to the Presi- dent in the event you wish to send/it forward. (Tab I). Also attached for your signature is a brief m mo to Helms (Tab II). RECOMMENDATIONS: 1. That you sign the memo to the President at Tab I. 2. That you sign the memo to Director Helms at Tab II. Attachments: Tab I ? Memo to the President Tab A - CIA Analysis Tab II? Memo to CIA Director NSS review completed. ?EELLIZZ No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/03/19: LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0 No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/03/19: LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0 4.1gEftfORANDUM 111P THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON SECRET INFORMATION MEMORANDUM FOR: FROM: SUBJECT: THE PRESIDENT Henry A. Kissinger The Changing Revolutionary Process in Latin America Attached at Tab A is a penetrating and lucid CIA study on the nature of the revolutionary process in Latin America which, the analysis contends, is undergoing some basic changes. The study suggestes that: -- the impulse for revolutionary change is gainin_g momentum in the Hemisphere, and in the end it will leave few countries unaffected; while revolution in Latin America will continue to be highly nationalistic and by definition anti-American to some degree, the new form revolution is likely to take in the decade ahead will probably be less violent and less adverse to our basic interests than it has been in the past. The study begins by indentifying key factors determining the prob- able success of revolution, which it defines as fundamental or lasting change in the political and social structure of a country occurring within a relatively short period of time, whether by violent or peaceful means. These key factors are considered to be: - A sufficient degree of public awareness of and frustration over the failure of the established order to meet growing social needs. The availability of the technological and institutional techniques (communications, organizational skills, etc.) needed to pro- duce basic changes in the social order. of the government in power to maintain public o and its claim to legitimacy-in the face of growing pressure SECRET No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/03/19: LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0 No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/03/19: LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0 .1 -- The willi ness of the overument to risk its hold on ower b inkmajor reforms fn time to head off violent revolution. t- Ih_ge wa revolution to ulket to come about, the study concludes. The analysis s ye that: ? The main impetus for revolution now comes from within the institu- tions of the established power structure, the Church, the military, and the professional bureaucracies, rather than from insurgent parties and groups on the outside. 41. ??? io1ence is an anavotdable fact of life in the re to but it is becom less Im ortant as a factor in the revolutionary process. In no case have rural guerrillas or urban terrorists been able to topple or even seriously threaten their governments in the past decade, though not for want of trying. Communist in e al have failed to Influence the revolutionary process by insurgent or terrorist methods, and now tend to be attracted by non-violent, popular front tactics because of the success in Chile. -- The revolutionar development, but instead t.nd to rise out of social frustrations arising from a ,eveling-off or downturn of the economic process at any level. *COON S directl related to the sta 0 of conomic Communist elements will findit increasi A new establishment-based type o the future, leaders are Iket to d will the difficult to e )1olt anti- nnels. Similarly, in the on that seems most probable in tbursts of anti-U. S. violence co . The irocess of "Latiniza- tiOn" may be U. S. investors, but in the long run U.S. business- men can probably survive and adjust to it and still find attractive oppor- tunities. Whil, a decline in U. S. influence in the area seems inevitable, the study conci necessarily such as to threaten the basic securit interests of the U.S., though the situation in Panama could isratte to be an exception. the new revolutionar I believe the basic thrust of our mature partnership policy in L.atin America is compatible with and supported by the conclusions ed- this study. We are now undergoing a comprehensive review of our i,olicy in the Hemisphere in order to bring it still more closely into line with the conditions likely to pre- vail in the region over the next several years, and wilt take this study into account in our efforts to fine-tune the policy. Attachment: Tab A -- CIA memo Allewitt 3 /16 / 71 SECRET Rewritt No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/03/19: LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0