INTELLIGENCE ALERT MEMORANDUM: POSSIBLE CONFLICT IN THE AEGEAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: October 8, 2010
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: April 4, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
SECRET
THJ D)RECIOIL OF CENTRAL INTEL LM NCE
M--,10MA.NDUH FOIL: The ono-c ble Henry A. Kisainge7r
Ae> istant to the Prewi&nt
(National gecur t y. 4 'e .rs)
SUBJECT : Intelligence Alert 1 r-r~ wzrx~14sm:
Poraraih1e Conflict in tbui !..e-oan.
-^lf C~ ~~'ir
4 April 1975
1. As the attached roundup iridicatea, Greek-Turkish tension
over the Aegccan in at a dangerous level..
2. We continue to believe that born gerv 'e t&, in their
a;atioua.l calculttiOxe, want to avoid the d nger ' d eneentiauly
ua.predictaable situation of large-scale hostilities over thin ienue.
Indeed, we would estimate that the cb aict .ere a.g oAt either side
deliberately deciding to initiate war.
3. macs.[: in equally important, we think t f~ ~ r?vernmont
credits the other with a desi;!e to avoid c ioua eonflict over this.
insue. At the same time, each governti- a : arare of pp1itiral
limitations on the other at home, of the fact: that there are soma
hawks on the other side, and that rat~oufff.. cu. Lions may riot
always prove controlling.
4. Indeed, there may be some sentit in 'key
for launching a pre-emptive strike against Greezaa -- tmsfore the
Turkish military capability declineM too f, as a- 'e.Mult of Turkey's
inability to obtain a ents. We do not't ink this r+ cning pre-
vails in the Turkish government. MAnt. + t :',_t ci~:,- _ t be entirely
discounted as a factor. In any case, t1 ,_rks are concerned a'gout
Greek reinforcemmnts of certain Aegean ,ands, and soma dryvx aago
a formal demarche to the aignatori , of the 1947 Paris Treaty
pointing out these violations.
5. Meanwhile, the readiness of b9 a.4es to play "chicken,"
to keep testing each a`_:her'e resolve by Z`r>1cish overflights
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
SECRET
of the islands and Greek shooting at the overflights - could easily
bring them into explosive confrontation in vhf a =;:_ .,. thar side felt
6. The intelligence Co
A roundup of Greek
ear Islands, requested by the Embassy in Ankara, is
being prepared in CIA and DI:A.. The attaphad ourrant ?i.te11igence
roundup given the highlights of the situation Ct the int.
7. This memorandtu has Leen dl scusr 4 jth of>"i r a in, CIA,
DIA, State/tNR and NSA, and they are in sgruw :' ..
SECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-3-7-9
10 f01E(0U MtHE4; ;0 0,'Zt-'A 3
Cc it t M U1SSEMAk( EifNi9 USE [ 11
Greek, Turkish Actions Pater
Likelihood of Serious Xncidunts
,25X1
The prospect of a serious inoici in t;110 A darn
Sea is growing as Greece and Turkey
pa +;'iai ngZy
ready to take risks in backing up : = .r 00ftf 11-C t-
a patrol nearby. Greek aircraft ia7.- ::r(a aVea "eare
ordered by ,higher authorities not the
Turkish planes. Antiaircraft beats: L' ,? '1 the i"s l nds
opened fire, but did not hit the Tuw: h ,pianos..
Our embassy in Athens was infod by the.ttek
government that two Turkish aircraft violat :.d Greek
airspace yesterday, as - iother 1S T rjaish Virnoa flew
The Turks are said to be planning..:." Strong
retaliatory action" to any Greek att is to int r-
cept Turkish aircraft.
concentrations. on the .islands in G : -kCo C to ?