CABLE TO HENRY A. KISSINGER FROM ELLSWORTH BUNKER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-490-8-15-3
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: December 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: October 10, 1972
• Content Type: CABLE

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No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/12/16: LOC-HAK-490-8-15-3
uV sr~ E r:; 40 01
iOI2IO Z OCT 2
T 0 P S E C R E I SENSITIVE EXCLUSIVEIA.EYES ONLY CITE W.HP0043
FROt1: THE SITUATION ROOM
TO: COL. GUAY
TOHAK 21
TO COL. GUAY FOR GEN HAIG
T 0 P S E C R E T SENSITIVE lfd 9302 T 72 VIA CAS CHANNELS (BUNKER)
TO: THE WHITE HOUSE, EXCLUSIVELY EYES ONLY FOR HENRY A. KISSINGER
REFS: A) WHS 2212; B) WHS 2213
1. I INFORMED THIEU TODAY OF SUBSTANCE OF REFERENCED MESSAGES
COVERING MEETINGS OF OCTOBER .8 AND 9 AND THAT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE OTHER SIDE WILL FOCUS ON THE MILITARY ISSUES AT TODAY'S MEETING.
I EMPHASIZ0 THE NECESSITY OF MOVING PROMPTLY TO SEIZ THE MAXIMUM
AMOUNT OF CRITICAL TERRITORY AGAINST THE POSSIBILITY OF THE OTHER SIDE
SURFACING A CEASE-FIRE PROPOSAL. THIEU AGAIN CONFIRMED TO ME THE
FACT THAT HE HAD GIVEN INSTRUCTIONS ALONG THESE LINES TO ALL CORPS
COMMANDERS AT HIS MEETING WITH THEM ON OCTOBER 6. I SAID THAT
GENERAL WEYAND BELIEVED THE COMMANDERS IN MR'S 1, 2, AND 4
ARE MOVING AHEAD SATISFACTORILY, BUT THAT GENERAL MINH'S FORCES IN
MR 3 ARE NOT AGGRESSIVELY ATTACKING THE ENEMY AND DIGGING THEM OUT
OF HAMLETS THEY NOW OCCUPY.
2. THIEU THEN SPECULATED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THE OTHER SIDE OFFER-
ING A CEASE-FIRE AND THEIR MOTIVES IN DOING SO. THEY WILL WANT TO
PURSUE A POLITICAL SOLUTION, HE THINKS, AS LONG AS THEY BELIEVE THEY
ARE WINNING AND GAINING TERRITORY. IF THE SITUATION TURNS AGAINST
THEN, HOWEVER, AND THEIR MILITARY POTENTIAL DECLINES WITH A LOSS OF
TERRITORY AND SUPPLIES THEY MAY THEN BELIEVE IT IN THEIR INTEREST TO
COME FORWARD WITH A PROPOSAL FOR A CEASE-FIRE WHILE, THEY CONTINUE
TO TALK, INCREASING PSYCHOLOGICAL PRESSURE ON US WHILE GAINING A
RESPITE FOR THEMSELVES. THIEU SAID THAT IN PRECEDING YEARS THE
ENEMY HAD FOUGHT A SEASONAL WAR, 'WITHDRAWING WHEN THE WEATHER
TURNED AGAINST HIM. THIS YEAR HE BELIEVES THE ENEMY WILL NOT WITH-
DRAW UNLESS FORCED TO DO SO BY THE DESTRUCTION OF HIS PERSONNEL
AND SUPPLIES. HE WILL TRY TO FIX ARVN TROOPS WHILE HE ENDEAVORS
TO MAINTAIN PRESSURE ON THE COUNTRYSIDE; THEN IF A CEASE-FIRE IS
ARRANGED, HE WILL HAVE FORCES WITHIN THE COUNTRY AND CLAIM THAT THEY
BELONG TO THE NLF, THUS COMPLICATING THE PROBLEM OF REGROUFNENT.
THIS, HE-SAID, IS CONFIRMED BY CAPTURED DOCUMENTS GIVING THE CADRE
INSTRUCTIONS TO PREPARE FOR A SOLUTION OF THE WAR. THESE INDICATE
THAT A COALITION GOVERNMENT WILL BE FORMED AT THE TOP, BUT NOT AT
THE LOWER ECHELONS WHERE THE COMMUNISTS WILL SET UP A FULL ADMINIS-
TRATIVE APPARATUS IN HAMLETS AND VILLAGES THEY CONTROL. THEN AFTER
A CEASE-FIRE THE LAST OFFENSIVE TO TAKE OVER THE COUNTRY WILL BE
LAUNCHED.
3. WARM REGARDS.
END OF.'MESSAGE
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/12/16: LOC-HAK-490-8-15-3