PROPOSED STUDY OF IMPROVED FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL FORECASTING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-538-3-1-0
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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11PAISV*4
MEMORANDUM
IDFNTIAL
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
al "4114v
MEMORANDUM FOR BRENT S WCROFT
FROM: A. W. Mars al0/0/
SUBJECT: Proposed Study of Improved Foreign
Agricultural Forecasting
Attached are preliminary terms of reference for the study. You
will recall you wanted NSC tochair the study, and asked for a
brief on what it was going Co do.
ON-FILE DEPT. AGRICULTURE
RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
NASA review completed pages 6-12
MORI/CDF C05142368
Pages 6-12
NSC review completed.
C;CINVMWNIIT A T nDS
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5596
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MEMORANDUM ip IP
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
CONFIDENTIAL ? September 28, 1973
5596
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Proposed Study of Foreign Agricultural
Forecast Improvement
Present forecasts of foreign demand for U.S. agricultural products
lack credibility and are not useful to policy-makers. It has, therefore,
been proposed to study how better estimates of foreign agricultural
production, foreign demand for agricultural products, and the state
of the international market might be produced. Results are desired
soon ? in a month to six weeks. The study should:
-- Describe how estimates are now produced, including
the collection of data, analysis, and the preparation and
dissemination of finished estimates.
-- Assess shortcomings in the present process; especially
the degree to which they impose constraints on policy-makers
or do not serve their needs.
? Survey means to overcome the shortcomings, including
new methods of data collection, more resources, improved
analytical techniques, better organization to safeguard objectivity,
establishing competing sources of estimates, etc.
-- Evaluate the potential improvements, their probable pay-
offs, their likely cost, and any special sensitivities or problems.
? Recommend future actions.
Because of the short time available and the bureaucratic and political
sensitivities involved, the study is to be kept within the White House
staff. NSC has been selected to chair the Working Group. Partici-
pation from CEA, CIEP, and OMB is desired. Inputs from all relevant
departments and agencies are to be obtained wherever feasible. CIA,
CONFIDENTIAL - GDS
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CONFIDENTIAL
State and NASA have indicated a desire to assist. An input from
Agriculture is desirable.
Tentative tasking for specific parts of the study:
-- Description and evaluation of present estimates: CEA,
CIEP.
-- Survey of advanced/improved data collection: NSC.
? Survey of improved analytical techniques, organizations,
etc.: CEA, CIEP, OMB.
-- Cost/benefit analysis: OMB, NSC.
CONFIDENTIAL
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roit.ANDUM
-
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
TOP SECRET/CCDEWORD
MEMORANDUM FOR BRENT SCOWCROFT
FROM:
SUBJECT:
David Elliot
AW. Marshall
5273-X
ACTION
September 19, 1973
'Wait
e-
? ix
Ken Dam Request That NSC Chair Study of Improved 1
Foreign Agricultural Forecasting
The attached letter from James Fletcher of NASA to George Shultz suggests
the reorientation of ERTS-B as part of a national pilot program to make a
global assessment of the production of selected food and feed grains. (See
Tab A.) This suggestion will be turned down by Shultz and OMB, but Ken
Dam wants to have an assessment made of how best to provide top decision-
makers with improved forecasts of the foreign production of food and feed
grains, and perhaps other agricultural pr ducts, The possible role of
ERTS and classified reconnaissance programs, is to be assessed as part
of this proposed study.
Dam would like the NSC to chair the stud.y. There may not be good
alternatives, because:
-- Dam has no staff of his own familiar with the existing
intelligence efforts in this area.
- 0Th.433 has strong negative views on ERTS; the result.of
the study is predetermined in some respects.
-- Other ageneies have strong interests, e? g? 2 Agriculture,
and even CIA, where there are contrasting positions in separate
parts of the Agency.
In our view HAK has a special Interest in this study because of the
sensitivity of foreign nations to the use of ERTS or other NASA programs
for economic intelligence purposes. Indeed, the study itself should be
conducted in a way that does not start rumors th.at ERTS is being considered
or xrtay already have been used for economic intelligence parposes.
? TOP SE'CRFT/CODEWORD XGDS (Z)
DECLAS IMPDET
..13YAUTH HAKISSINGER
HANDLE VIA TALENT-
KEYHOLE CHANNELS ONLY
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TOP SECRET/CODEWORD 2
One of us (A1,VM) has had the CIA undertake an experimental effort to
follow the Soviet wheat crop this year using overhead systems. Some
ERTS input was used. An Agency assessment of this effort has been
asked for and is due in?mid-October. (See Tab 13.)
This study is to have a 1 November deadline.. Do you see any problems?
Should we chair the study?
Yes
.,_ t.;?:' -I: Le'
Z.
'6%."
TOP SECP?'.ET/CODEWORD
No
? '
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NASA review completed pages 6-121
NAlioN,11. m.ito..:Au I n. .1,
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(NMI 01 nil AltAiiwytifskimi
flonorable George P. Shultz
Assistant to the President
The White llouse
Washington, D.C. 20500
Dear George:
MORI/CDF C05142368 Pages
6-12
The experimental results flowing from NASA's Earth Resources
Technology Satellite (ERTS-l) are so encouraging that. it
becomes imperative that the bioad policy on remote sensing
from space and the importance of securing significant
economic advantages for the U.S. now receive attention from
the highest levels. ERTS-1 is proving the utility of synoptic,
multia=ctral, rc-pr.t3tive coverage for the monitoring and
analysis of local, regional, and national resources: crops,
' timber, water, geology, minerals, and wetlands, as well as
important environmental factors such as pollution. The
capabilities of spnce systems are global and can ma K= a
'significant and unique contribution to the understanding and
resolution of some of the critical economic issues that face
the Administration. ?
A specific case in point: we are finding that informatiou on
world food crops can be repetitively acquired everywhere in
the world by ERTS-typc satellites: Space systems alone can-
not, of course, provide all the data necessary for global
crop inventories and predictions: on the other hand, a current
and seasonal global assessment is virtually imyossible without
space sy:;tc'ms. The economic and rolitical values to the
United Mlates Coveru,nt of knowing in :advance thc r3 d'
probable grain production .may be ivIrd to quantLfy or to '
dcwoniArate 3n advance --- but there can be no Onub!, that
they wimld he considerablo.
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I am parz;onally convinced that accorate global oconomic
in 1:1; a b3sic requirement for sound U.S. co.licy
dvcision both in 1.11-:: international arena and here ac home.
Furth-..lr, I. an convinced that a satellite system,[pperated
by tht) Govermwngin the U.S. national inr.erest, it; a
necessary cl=ent in ri:oeting thi:4; requirement. And I feel
that an on, civil program would be far preferable for this
.!-Iunction i-kaa would be any other approach in that it provides
, the U.S. with the Widest range of continuing options, nationally
and internationally.
am bringing these opportunities to your attention :at this
time because I feel there is a real need for early pOlicy
decisions that will secure for the U.S. the maximum palitical
and economic benefits at home and abroad. Let me summarize
some of the principle reasons and considerations:
o Data from our experimental satellite have proven
to be operationally u::eful,to lAlderal
as Interior, the Corps of Engineers and AID; as well
as to many of. the States:. 'significant co=erciaLuses
.are also being developed..
?
In order to maintain the continuity of space data,
we are taking steps to reschedule the ERTS-11
satellite from 1976 to 1974, within availnblo
resonrces, at the expense of deferring important
research objectives.
? o The international community has responded enthusiastic-
ally to the new technology and many nations hava mada
or are preparing to significant invostmonts in
ground facilities (pnrcha:t('d trom the U.S.) to reroivo
EliTS data on a regional ho:lin.
ia At: the same time, -international )x).1.i.tica). Careen
at play in the U.N. are beginning to fociv; on
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the revote sensing issues; there is g10w1n9* presnure
to define an international 1(2(01 re9ime for remote
sensincj that conld,seel; !.o constrain tho ri:iht or
free dissc:ninatien or even acquisition oi such data.
11c J. the NASA proqram nor .that of any other acjoncy
currently contains any provision for a civil earth
resources satellite -- either empf:triental or opo.rational
-- to follow !TS-3; program continuity is ess.z.ntial
.to capitalize on the uniquely useful capabilities
developed in the ERTS program. *
Current experiencp indicatds that experimental .
. space systeNs provide data of direct ope*ratibnal
utility and therefore no real or practical policy
,distinction need be drawn, as at present, between
operational and experimental systems.
The1ti requir to hnild aadLtional
ES?
class satellites, even daplicntr!s ot the carrent
hardware, is on the order of 2 to 2)1 years; if the
nation is to have the benefits possible from a
global resource monitoring system, the decision to
proceed must be made soon.
o The global character of earth resources data
collection from space, and the national importance
and international sensitivity of .the information so
acquired, together requirc!, I am now convinced, that
e-
the operation and control of this function be a care-
fully managed Federal responsibility.
Cs
0 A national program of continuous g1obal data
acquion, whether described as enperimental or
operational, provides a maninyful new instrument,
of foreign Folicy, in that thd infomation has in-
her(mt value and accons there to can be can trolled as
desired.
(tVI
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man:Ige:nent of such a nat ional prckirign rontinuomt,
91ohal dota acquisition'allx,ars hts
a "service." agency 4dc.adico ted to pcovidinV the FeLtera
and State "users" , and throusTh them the private
sector , with the 'data they require for their l?ino
functions,
Ta to4et.her, ? these factors make it ia-arortant to 1.7easch
national decision .this fall; otherwise, We stand to lose or
forego 4.-..he valuable opFortunities before us, Today,. the.re.
is no single clear national focus or objective .for the earth
resources survey program,. nor has the. nation ? prepared to
exploit these new Capabilities. which are already' in 'being..
Regardless of wheth-rthe FY 1975 budget is able to support
.a ? full-scale investment in a new or..4.,:ra tional space.
the Administration can and should, in my view:, k owni t
to :i:19n1ficant operational Pnploitation or tile
we .already have in beinci or in develovi?.ent, and (2) establ.i.:-.li
a policy frame 'work and plan to ?asSuPe the most advantageous
exploitation of these and future capabilities When .they? can
be made available. I therefore submit the following two
recommendations:
1. NASA should start now to reorient.its ERTS-B
?
...'satellite to a 12- t6.15-mnth, national pilot program. in. 1974
and 1975 dedicated to the olobal_assesliment of 1.1io production
of. one or .r.,ore se1ec.7ted food An t.1 yoed grains. This program
wonld build uron t*!...".pand the exwrience beim; 'developed in
the regional wheat studies no1.4 underway. by .the. Central Intc.:11i9ev
Agency and the Department of Agriculture and in current eN-
p,:trimental work by NASA. Xt would represent ?a single organiacd
attack on the probltrx. of providing increasincily accurate. asseutl-
ments ancl forecants? of global productivity for use by thi;to.
ra aon in implementing both a.-.)iaestic and foreign
? .economic.and other r.liCY objectivs with the s..?.-,ecific?
oh tiv
of providinq actual assf,:ssrents and i:orecast!; for use in l'VP.;.
?
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This in the earliest practicable timn at whioh !nich qtohal
assessments and forecasts could br! available. Milination
of Et--3 as the new is 1974 launch date and a docision
to initiate the program this fall are essential to meet
this objective.
The pilot program would require a very considerable interagency
effort; it would Utilize data from other natellito ::yntms
and all other available sources, as well as from ERTS-B and
bring together analytical resources on a task team basis from
both inside and outside the Government. If it is as success-
ful as I expect it to be, the program would not only provide
the U.S. Government with highly useful results in 1975,
...but would also establish -- practically, conclusively, and
letter than any theoretical studies -- the benefits and cost-
mffoctiveness of civil space systems for global economic
/information and national resources management.
'If you agrce,
? .1 ? ... .??". ?????114 71
will accept the respowt0
,LA_Lay
.,and setting in rotion a national plan for this pilot program
,in concert with the other agencies concerned. Some important
aspects will necessarily be classified: however, based on the
? worldwide acceptance of ERT and Skylab programs to date, I
bel'aIve that an overall unclassified plan acceptable from
' both do=estic and international policy standpoints can be
? developed. My current expectation is that such a pilot
program, while requiring a very Considerable effort, wauld
not have a major impact on the overall budget planning of
NASA and the other agencies involved.
another necessary move to secure for the U.S.
the longer range advantages .of eXploiting earth resources
data -from thu Administration should establish as
soon as rossible a new national policy along the fo1.lowin9
'
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?a... Recognition. that. US-acquired eartiv?re'sourcoa
survey data, and particularly the inrormation
derived therefrom, m,.int be treated. as national ?
?assets with ;Ippropriete .domosiic? ;old. iliter-?
national :controls over their .disseminntion
.and?use.
b.. Recognition of. the need .for program... continuity
in earth resources nurveys from space to. obtain
these values in the national interest.
Acceptance of the principle of centrali:ed
Federal maiiagenent of earth..resourcn? intrvey
systems that .operato in direct respontic. to
the.: requirements of the many using line..
Departments and agencies.
d. Continuation of the necessary separation.,
but with even closer 0Jorainntion. 'of civil
and military space programs.
e. Continuation of the overt character and imac(
of the civil space program.
Dealing practically with international political
concerns about remote sensing from space
through negotiations based on the rights of
the US to use global data in it.:1 own interest
and to provide such oarth resources mtrvey
services internationally as arc appropriate.
Xf .yon agree X win ace('.%.pt. the responsibility for developing.
such a coordinated interagoncy policy statetv.ent, and for re-
..col=n1ding an ir,-,loi:;entation .plan well, for by your.
Dr. .1;:in4in3ctri ,and other; appropria te. prior to s ion
to. the Prenidont Cor approval. While 1. do not expect?tho
new rol icy and plan to ro:ail t in a ;:la jor tjytary ,
it in important t hat: the.1 1.1Y 107 5 h:l.tiflot, ('? .&.; t ent with
holi.ewe %%Iv r.hotaci arri.vo ? a t: ho noit ry
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administration decisions this fall, a:A plan on announcing
and implf=enting t12m in Jajnuazv Th'.' l'.,tablishnt and
Otiblic announcement of tha new policy at .his time would
be helpIul to sulYcort the initiation of the pilot program
in reco=endation 1 above.
You will appreciate that as Administrator of NASA I feel
very keenly my responsibilities to bring to the President's
attention both .the opportunities for advancing the national
interests Which grow out of NASA's research and developmerit
work in space and aeronautics and the policy implications
which flow therefrom. In the earth resources survey field,
extremely important values can be and are being achieved
from even the first experimental systems. *These values can
be used for us, ignored, or uged against us, depending on
what we do or fail to do. X believe that we should move
quietly to assure that the United States capitalizes on its
advantages. Having invested so much in space, and having
succeeded in creating such valuable tools, it would be unwise
indeed not to do so.
X would be pleased to discuss these matters in greater detail
with you at your convenience. I am sending copies of this
letter to Henry Kissinger and Roy Ash for their information
and any comments they may have at this stage.
?
Sincerely,
? %Imes C. F3etcher
Admi.nistratr
:ae: Dr. Kissinger
Mr. Ash
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