MIDDLE EAST (SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 20 AS OF 1630)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-542-18-7-3
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2010
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: October 10, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

- ? .1?P/- AL49+ ti9
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/05: LOC-HAK-542-18-7-3
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
INTEI LIGENCE MEMORANDUM
DIA & State Dept review(s)
completed.
MIDDLE EAST
- e =_ 3 a _9
(Situation Report Auer 20)
MILITARY SITUATION
GEP E.I.
I. The situation on the ground appears to be
stabilizing on both fronts today with no significant
advances-made by either the Israol.is,or Arabs. Israeli
ground forces, supported by a large number of airstrikes,
controlled most of the Golan ?ieights today and. are re-
ported to have entered and cleared Qunaytirah. They
also made some shallow penetrations across the cease.
Tiro line by noon, Tel Aviv time. Egyptian ground
forces are holding the east bank of the canal to a
depth of six to ton kilometers and continue to rebuild
their bridges and add reinforcements. The Israelis,
again with heavy air support, say they are containing
the Egyptians; they turned back an armored force
driving south into the Sinai from Suez-city earlier
today.
2. The Syrians launched unsuccessful air attack
against Israeli positions' in the heights this after-
noon, losing 19 aircraft. Egyptian air activity
remained light. Israeli air attacks continue to be
heaviest in the Golan Heights, but a large number of
sorties also were directed against the Egyptian forces
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on. the west bar. Tel Aviv confirmed that Damascus
international airport was attacked about noon, Tal
Aviv time.
SYRIAN FRONT
4. A neutral observer reported at noon that the
most' significant change since early morning on the
Golan Heights was that the Israelis appeared to have
entered 4unaytirah and were clearing it. Prime Min-
ister Meir, in a televised broadcast, late today,
declared that .all of the Golan Heights -are Completely
in Israeli hands and that Syrian troops are in flight.
S. The level of fighting in Syria was high both
in the air and an the ground. The Syrians *claim to
have shot down at least 25 Israeli aircraft over the
Golan Heights, Latakia, Tartous, and Damascus. At
the same. time Tol Aviv says 19 Syrian aircraft have
been downed. Israeli planes flew about 320 sorties
on 10 October, mainly over the Golan Heights.
EGYP'IAN FRONT
6. Fighting continues along the canal, but with
little evidence of significant progress by either side.
Tel Aviv claims that the Egyptian forces are being held
in check, all along the canal and that Egyptian penetra-
tions into Sinai are of a depth of only ten kilometers.
-'2-
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Both sides indicate that the Egyptians are successfully
maintaining some bridges scross the canal, despite
intensive Israeli air attacks, but the size of the
Egyptian reinforcements effort is not known.
7. According to Tel Aviv, an Egyptian armored
unit attempted to break out of the bridgehead today,
but was forced back. The attacking force struck
south from the city, of Suez along the Sinai coast.
e gyp a:ns probably are
cep ng their aircraft n hardened shelters to
protect them from Israeli strikes. Cairo's objec--
tive may be to Mold its air force in reserve until
Israel's air arm is weakened by SAM and antiaircraft
fire.
ESTIMATED LOSSES
Israel Arabs
Aircraft 105-110 160-165
Tanks 550* 800
Ships (primarily ,... 9-10
patrol crafty
Personnel
1,200 10,000-14,000
*Israeli report--includes tanks out of service that
cannot be repaired within a week.
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O T E osses are fairly firm and are
based on Israeli admissions. The Arab aircraft losses
are based on reported shoot-downs and possible losses
as a result of Israeli air strikes-on Egyptian and
Syrian airfields, as derived from both Israeli claims
and Egyptian admissions. The Syrians have made no
statements about the number of aircraft lost during
the war. It is not possible to ascertain the types of
aircraft lost.
The tank: figures are estimates based . on field 25X1
reporting. Personnel losses are extremely rough'
estimates of men killed and captured. While these
estimates of losses have not been confirmed,. they are
consistent with the forces committed to battle ;and the
intensity of fighting on the various fronts..
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SOVIET NAVE ACTIVITY
12. The cruiser and one of-the two destroyers
that entered the Mediterranean from the Black Sea this
morning are schc Cu1ed to visit the Italian ports of
Taranto (15-18 October) and Messina (39-22 October).
There in no indicztioa as yet that the visits have
been called o9f.
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],4. According to press reports a Libya has LJ/~ I
calimed "full sovereignty" over, the.Gulf of -Sirte
as a result of the current hostilities. Tripoli
warned that no ship would be permitted to enter the
large body of water along the central coastline with-
out special pcrmiscion. Tripoli is no doubt reacting
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to reports of the movements of the US Sixth 'leet and
to .recent articles in the -US press suggesting an
American ta.Ie-over of Libyan oilfields. Most of
Libya's important oil . terminals are located at the
port of Sire.
o rL
15. The Arab-Israeli war has not yet resulted in
,politically motivated oil cutbacks, but it is already
affecting exports from the area. The closure of the
oil terminal at Baniyas, Syria and a ~50-percent
reduction in the Arabian-American Oil Company`s Tap-
line have reduced the flow of oil to Western Europe
by about 800,000 barrels per day, equivalent to about 4
five percent of supplies. Additionally, the 350,000
barrels per day from'"the Trans-Xsraeli pipeline ex-
ported to f1es tern Europe probably will. not be avail-
able because of Israel's desire to maintain a high
level of oil stocks and the reluctance of tankers to
enter the area. Alternative supplies from the Persian
Gulf states are available, but the current tanker
shortage will delay liftings. Italy and other Med-
iterranean otates will be hardest hit by the disrup-
tions.
16. For the present, egypt and Syria reportedly
are not preasing the producing countries ,to use thier
oil as a weapon. Kuwaitis call yesterday for an
emergency meeting of Arab oil ministers was probably
a pre-emptive move designed .to keep control,of the
situation in the hands of Arab moderates. So far,
the Iraqi nationalization of Exxon and Mobil has
been the only discriminatory move against the US.;
however, Baghdad has not been pushing its call for
a ban on oil exports to the US issued earlier this
week.
17. If hostilities are prolonged, shutdowns or.
severe limitations on the Mediterranean pipelines
would be felt in the US--perhaps in a matter of
several weeks. Should the Arab combatants begin to
suff?r'sharp defeats, pressure on Arab oil producers
to use their petroleum muscle in the battle will be
intense.
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18. although the Security Council members have
not yet set a time for their next meeting, it seems
likely that the non-aligned states may offer a cease-
fire resolution within the next few days. They were
ep cted preparing a.draft yesterday and are apparently
trying to time its presentation so as to be most
favorable to Arab positions.
VOLUNTEERS FOR ISRAEL
19. Reacting to western press reports that
offices to process volunteers to help Israel have been
established by pro-Israeli organizations in the
Netherlands, Belgium, and Great Britain, the Libyan
acting foreign minister called in the representatives
of these countries in Tripoli' and warned them that
Libya would consider such activity a hostile aet,by
their countries against the Arab states. An Iranian
Government spokesman, reacting to a news service
r eport that volunteers from Australia might go to
Israel via Tehran, warned that his country would not
be a way station far such .people and that -Iran would.
not issue teem entry visas.
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Third Country Participation infthe Current
As the fighting rages between Israel: and Syria.
and Egyt, various other Arab states have become involved
either actively or through pledges of financial and mi.li-
tary aamistance. A summary of the assistance provided
or prornised by these states, as well as that by non-Arab
states follows.
Arab Assistance
Libya
To date, new Libyan'assistanco has been limited to
pledgee to "bankroll" the w .r. Last sprang, Libya sent
at least 20 Mirage fighter aircraft to Egypt, which
apparently are being lown by Egyptian pilots. Libya
has more than 60 additional Mira es in its inventory-7
althouch there are not enough U cyan pa. ots t.raa.ned to
fly thy. There are .tenuous. indications , however, that
some of these aircraft ma be mttadeailable to the
Morocco
At the beginning of the fighting, Morocco had between
2,000 cmd 3 000 troo s about 60 medium tahks and some
, -IT a n support e ui merit SIF-C .one In S y r i a near thQ
Golan b..elgrits. Tese troops reportedly have a ready
engages in combat. Morocco has announced that it will
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send another 2 , 500 or so 'troaRs to the fighting-possibly
to the:gjpt:.an front.
isam
Stnce last spring t a- squadron of Iraqi hawker Hunter
aircraft--some 16 aircraft--and about 1.60 Iraqi pilots
and tech nicx.ans aye con stafi:!0A0t3 1,n -4g Prq~~. T Ze Iraqi.
aircrai:F have already ongaged in aera.a coiair with the
e
Israelis. Baghdad also has indicated that it will O r o
32 5U-7 fighter bombers and 16 MIG-21s to t e a t e n
the Syrian Front .
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Report- from Cairo and Algiers indicate that Algerian
air units havo arrived in Egypt. Last spring, Alge i.a
apparently sent some MIG aircraft and perhaps even some
air force personnel to Syria. Xt is not known if any
Algerians have yet engaged in combat.
Saudi Arabia
State Department sources indicate that Saudi Arabia
intends to send a combat brigade-perhaps as many as 500
interceptors and information obtained earlier this year
indicates that 10 of these aircraft are to be made available
to the Egyptians in an emergency.
Tunis is
Tunis has announced that it intends to dispatch toy'
to both Egypt and Syria. Information suggests that some
may ,Dave a]. ready been dispatched to the front,
Kuwait
Kuwait reportedly has reinforced its 500 man contingent
i,ra_yrtr by another 150 men and ei ht ilota.
Non-Arab Assistance
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At least 33 North Korean pilots have been stationed
in Egypt since ate June. The .Koreans are flying Egyptian
LitG-21 aircraft and' have been formed into an operational
aquadron that is integrated into an Egyptian fighter-briciade.
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