MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 21 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-542-18-8-2
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: February 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: October 10, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL XNTELI'., 7:GENCE AGENCY
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
State Dept review
completed.
MIDDLE 1.~11ST
(UL_ a-f --220_ 1=TJ_$
THE MILITARY SITUATION
l.? After 'intense ground, and air fighting today,
the Israelis apparently have reversed the tide of bat-
tle against the Syrians, driving. them out of Qunaytirah
and back toward the 1967 cease-fire line. It is -still
not clear whether the Syrians have been` forced hack
across the cease-=fire line, despite Israeli claims
The Jordanians reportedly are preparing to deploy an
armored brigade- to Syria, to an area west of Darla.
At this location, the brigade would not be engaged
if the Israelis overran the preent Syrian lines, but
Could act as a buffer between advancing Israeli units
and Jordan.j.an territory. .
2, Orr the' Egyptian front, the' Egyptians appear
to be c.onsolidatinsg, and cautiously expanding, their
position on the east bank of the canal, possibly in
p eparation. for efforts to advance to the Sinai passes.
The' Egyptians have apparently launched some small
probes into the S9i.pai but these have been turned bac}mod
Tho Israelis have not, however, initiated major ground-
action against the main Egyptian forces over the past
several days, but continue, to h'oarass t=x~Cs Egyptian
units with airstrikes.
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5ituat ~7~ .Tep~_Lm1.-T
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THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
3 , The level of ground . fighting appears to be
reduced, compared to that of the past soveral days.
The Israelis claim to have contaifaed the Egyptians
and to.have ?dr iven to the 'carnal north of El Kantar a,
relieving an ~ou.utpost that had held out for five days.
while the reports ma:j bolster Israeli mor4lo, the
Israeli actions appear, in reality, to be inconsequen-
tial. The area -where the Israelis claim to have
reached the canal, is north of the. math Egyptian force
conCentratjon,s a:nc is in *an area---characteri-ed by
swamps--that probably will not figure significantly-.
in battles for the east bank,
4. Despite the massive infusion of men and
materiel onto the east bank, over the 'past five days,
the Egyptians apparently have not ? attempted a strong.
drive into 'the Sinai. Th.cey appear content to consol-
idate, axed cautiously expand, their newly won posi-
tions on the east bank, possibly in preparation for
a later, advance toward the Mitla. and Gidi passes.
Thus far, the Egyptians have presented only a frontal.
target to the Xsr..-aeli forces, reducing their exposure
to the mobile Israeli tactics which routed the Egyp-
tian army in tho Six ai' in 1967. The Egyptians have,
however, launchod .orjto snial1 er probes--probably for
reconnaissance-which have been defeated by the Isra-
elis,
G. The- Israelis, after some 'bloody but app ar--
ently unsuccessful counterattacks . earlier, have not
initiated major ground action against the Ecyptian
forces. The Israelis are possibly seeking to contain
a major Egyptian thrust while awaiting ' .;einforcemeszt
from the Golan Heights before engaging the main E9y15_
tian force, The; Israeli Air Force has bombed Port Said
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heavily and continues to hai : s ,?t~o egyptian fords
in the Sinai. A Western correspondent with the Fgyp-
tian force reported the xsraeJ.i air attacks were in-
effective, however, and that the Israelis did not seem
to be making an effort to destroy the heavily defended,
easily repaired bridges.
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THE SYRIAN FRONT
8, Little f~:ghting is reported along the Golan
Heights 'tonight= r aftor intense battles in the air and
on the ground, today. In contrast to the 320 Xsraeli
sorties during the daylight hour's,-only 16 Israeli
aircraft flew over. southern Lebanon and northern Is-
rael this evening.' The lsrc-aelis? appear to have taken
the initiative today and have held Qunaytirah since
early morning. it is still not clear whether the Syr-
7 ~iz~ ha h~~ n rcgarl 1 ~x^c~ s the cease-fire line.
According to UN observers, Syrian forward
elements may sti'1l be on the 'Israeli side of the line,
however e Prima Minister Meir t ated in her evening
television'' broadcast that the Syrian Army was being
held east of the cease-fire line.
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present Syrian linuso but the btigado could act as a
buffer' hotween the' Israelis' and. Jordan itself. The
not be in a.nunc:diate danger if the Israelis overran
This location in aou " Zern Syria WOUA-CL
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40th armored brigade has proven .its ability in the
past and coul.c3 slow- an Israeli attack an Syria through
Jordan o Admitting that aoraa.niin intczvention would
be u problem, an Israeli military official re P
s ondxng
to press quest , ,n;; this evening; stated that at this
stage ?Jordan',s involvement would be far less of a
problem than earlicra
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IS1.AEL
13. In a televised broadcast and news confor--
ence on 10 October, Pr. irnel Minister Meir gave a rel-
atively optimistic account of the military situa-
tion a The Prirae Milli 7tP-r claimed' the Golan heights
were in Israeli hands and that. settlers were re-
turning to their homes in the area, ? The Primo Min-
ister also said that a "basic change" had taken
place in the Sinai, with 'Israeli. forces "standing
very 010,90 to the canal.." As r-6r' ? the future', Prime
Minister. Meir said. there was no doubt about victory,
but that* d?i=ficult days were ahoad. She urged that:
King IIusayn be. "Wise enough and ? responsible enough
to keep out of the fj.ghting, ". rei-ainda.tig' him that
Tei Aviv.. had once before- ixx ?.196'7_-asked him not to
enter ihto war with . rsrael m
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I I I
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16. In talks. with the. US ambassador tonight,
both the King and the prime minister emphasized
that only a, cease-fir: along present lines could
keep Jordan out of? the war, In. an obvious reflec-
tion of their v'ieW that: such-.a c ase-fire. is unlikely,
the gove_rnrrie~nt today announcod "that it was calling up
reserves and mobilizing all the country's resources
for the "war effort
L'11'1U NATIONS
17. ecretary.Cenc:ral Waldhcim has been push-
ing for the Security Council to reesonVen~a, appar-
ently concerned about the UN's appearance of non-
chalance in the midst of war. According to a
press repo ?t, Waldheim intends to make a personal
appeal to the belligerents 'to and ,the war, but
would probably stop short of a call for a cear~e.,.?,
fire. Ambassador Scali dos not. believe the Secu-
rity -Council will xeconvene on 11 Octobaer.
18. Won.hgned coui tries at the UN met this
afternoon to diectasa the Middle fast situation:
Tho session produced only a decision to. send mes-
sages of support to ngypt and Syria. ' Radical
states wanted to issue an appeal to all ? nonaligned.
states to. ,ever relations with Israel, ? but the move
was defeated. .roreign Minister Zayyat of 2gypt
per suade?d' the Yugoslavs not to introduce a resolu-
tion--which was L' einc drafted on 9 October by some
nonaligned 'coiantrjes---that would have called for a
cease-fil'$ ?li ,
aus ices ,
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THE CAIRO SCENE
20. The US rntore,st;s Section in Cairo reports
the city has bcen'?virtua.lly n.orraal throug'h'out the
day. , There was a light increase.'in the guard force
around tile- Interests Section, btat patrols around the
City were described as being at the -"normal low level."
There are reports .of wounded ariiving in Cairo and
one hotel has already been convortod to a military
hospital. ? ? .
21. The Cairo press is carrying many photos of
Israeli PCBs, but government information policy con-
tinues to be t,0 reflect events- on the battlefronts
in a fairly accurate way and to try to keep excite-
men.t at a low level, The media are not speculating
about the future. - Tkie Interests Section inaic+.tes
that the- US is not--' a focus of criticism. and, for the
most part, remains out of the news"
SAUDI J RABIA
22. King Faysal has summoned the, ranking US
diplomat in 'Saudi Arabia to a meeting in Riyad tomor-
row morning. The subject of the' meeting is not known
at this time, but it could be to, inform the LTS that
the Saudis .in . e-nd to send a small military force to
h
t
e Syrian 'front and aircraft to rgypt.
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.23. , Radio aghrl,:td ca1.1ed on all Arabs tonight
to apply Pressure on the goV'ernments of. Arab o ,1..
producing states to suspend' the
Us. flow of .oil to the
.
24, Oil operations in Saudi, Arabia were re-
po
9 rted to, be on "busa,nuss as .usual basis' as of
.~???, Lu-iixd.nc c`l,~ ? c7t~~"ha1'i_ CF3T~iaC
12"ST-. %UT?OPE.AN 'REACTION
25. 'F'rench policy on the Middle East. remains
Pro-Arab, largely for economic,' 3ceasons. The French
Foreign ministry informed us Embas ay Officers yester-
day that Franca intends to seal,:-.a peaceful solution
to the - crtsjs via U14 Resolution . 242. Paris is per-
suaded that the gr.c.at pourers
the fcey tr.]' t]-Lis s41ution.
26. Chan'cclior Drandt said today that it. 'is an
illusion to- as None that conflicts in the Middle East
can be solved by war.. He asked that, all. ':Mates. in
the Middle halt be .liven the right to exist and ap-
pealed to the .world powars to work for peace..
27. A Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman denied
today that NZTO in-Stallations in Turkey would' Sao used
to intervo,nc 121 Middle East events. He said these
installations are related to the: security and defense
Of NATO regions and would not be. used for any other
purpose.
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 11
28 0 The Vatican is disturbed by the renewed
fighting in t:h . Kiddie Bast, and 'particularly lis-
t'eressed over the bornbing of Mama acuas, 'A V?*ticanz
atficial told a US diplomat today that he did not
think the Drriascus raid was a 'fair quid pro quo for
Syr, i.an 'missile attacks on Israeli civilians. The
Vatic?ar, also feels that proGsinq for a return to the
6 October .ceas,~~a.xc lino is likely to be counter-
productive in the search to end hostilities.
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ANNEX
Soviet 'PZr~cSi.terrazapan. Naval, ACtiV.it
I . The Soviet Medi.terr ane an Squadron continues
to devote its efforts to g'at:heri,ng intelligence on
the Arab-xsra`eli confl.i.ct?:,, watching the U.S Sixth
Fleet, and evacixa. t5 n.4 Soviet: civilians from the area.
Most Soviet combatants are ? located ?-neai Crete or in
the Aegean Sea..
2 . Two 'Sovi'et iritel ligencie ships are stationed
ofd the Levant coasts tPo intercept cc+rnntun:i.cations of
the corbatarxt forces One is ahou 60 nautical miles
northwest of 'Tel Aviv, and the other is sortie 50 nauti-
cal miles. west of Tartous,". Syria.
3. The USS :Independence task. group, still south
of the east tip of Crete, is beihg. trailed by a Soviet
submarjncr tender-the Sc'vj.et flagship for the Med.i-
terranoan Squacl,x?oii-arid a missile frigate, a destroyer,
and an intelligence collection $hiip. One Soviet de-
strayer escort is. in the ,Strait of; Sicily and. two
other destroyer escorts plus a ;ashin class missile
frigate and subtende ? are in the Gulf of HaTnnI aat.
All of these. ships ate in position to trail the -US
attack carrier '?. D.' Roosevelt whibh was scheduled
to depart Barcelona this morning,. if it proceeds
east. The cruiser and two ? destroyer. s that exited
the r lack, Sea this morning are. now in the Aegean
Sea.
4. A Soviet repair ship that. participated in
the initial evacuation of Soviet civilian dependents
from Ale,candrio is' now back in that port, presumably
.after?.having transferred the civil:iai to another
ship. It may be 'there to evacuate: inor'e Soviet na-
tionals, Nina sMa11? Soviet naval auxiliary ships
and yard craft are also in Alexandlria. These ships,
a minesweeper near Latakia,-and a navel research
ship in Solltittt, Egypt, are the only other Soviet
surface units of any' kind known to be in or near any
port in the east--Mediterranean.
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. T. At least four soviet diesel submarines have
left the Mediterrahean en rout.cn to their base in the
Soviet Northern Fleet, and four or five more are ex-
peated to depart soon d These units' were relieved
by a task forth of nine to tern submarine's in ear=ly
Octobar, When: the, relieving operation is cornslatc,
the. Soviet :su.hrnarine force in the Mediter3: u can will"
total about nine die:scl-powered aL.tack subrn nines, orle
diesel-powered cri. ise-missi.1e subrnarino, and one nu-
clear -powered... submarine of an tzndet:orma.ned type..
6. Four 'of the diesel submarines were sighted
On 9 October in the central Meditck anean, .. heat thg
east. At Zoast cane of the submarines is apparently
now in the eastern Meediterranea.xi, and anti-submarine
warfare helicopters from the USS ? Inaepend once reported
a submarine con(-.acf near the Soviet; flagship this
.afternoon . The whereabouts of the otbeq.. Soviet sub 4
rn iraes is unknown...
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