MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 39 (AS OF 1130 EDT)

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2
Release Decision: 
RIPLIM
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
12
Document Creation Date: 
January 11, 2017
Document Release Date: 
August 11, 2010
Sequence Number: 
4
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 15, 1973
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2.pdf294.15 KB
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25X1 .1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 rl 25X1 CENTRAL -.INTELLIGCE AGENCY ? , I5:Octal-16r 1973 ? INTELLIGENCE VIEMORAN bUM State Dept & DIA review(s) completed for entire document MORI C03326465 W.CDDLE :EAST . SitUation Report Number .39 ?(as: of 1130' EDT) . , TM?, MILITARY SITUATION GENERAL ? . GroUnd acti'Vity resuMed' On both fronts this morning, ;although' fighting on the Egyptian front was significantly lighter than yasterday On the. Syrian front, both sides cohtinued to engage in a.rtillery and tank duels, Eorces intensely shellr in.g ar oUtheast of. Sasa.. Syrian forces a ppc_lat to he fighting dogge11y., and isr.aeili' forces appear' to.. be alrubst 'at S tand still on this front. No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 . 25X1' 25X1 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 SYRIA.1.4 . 6. The Lei3anose Oress claims that a heliborne force of Syrian.. commandos have occupied a hill near Al Q'unaytira.h as a. sprelude to an attack on the town. This report, however, has not been confirmed by any other sourc:e. Other reports suggest that lightly ? armed forCes ranged along the Israe34 left flank on the s 1 opes of Mount, Hermon may be .Pales tine .Libera- tion Army ?cornmand.os: or fedayeen guer.eillas ? No Obiection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 ? BATTLE LbSSES .(cstimated) (Estimated Losses as of. 1130, 15 October) PerSonnel Tanks Aircraft Ships tsraed ? ,' Arab 2,900ZIT7Tirr 13,5,00-1670 750-050 .. 1,1.50-1,240 : 9,5-110 250-270 .4, (poss) : 20-26 , ? ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 25X1 ?? obde.2i.1.1.1. .1, .60 ??-??(1....4.1 ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 EGYPT . . - ? ' . 14. President Sadat will address the nation ? tomorrow at noon C4iro time WOO EDT) at the open- ing of an extraordinary joint SG$s4.on of the People's Assembly and tho Arab Socialist Vnion central commit- tee. The speech will be Sadat's first public state- ment since hostllities began. ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 25X1 11, ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 KUWAIT ? ? l6. The meeting of the OrganiZa:Eion Ot Ab Petroleum Exporting :Countries (WEC),scheduled to be convened in Kuwait tpmarrow has again bcen.post- polled until 17 October. . 16. .Meanwhile,: Sandi officials are becoming Concerned that Soviet ?influenCe in the Middle East Will rise in the:period.'following theconclusion of .the war and that Ug action to ?implement or impose" a peace based On Resolution 242 will 54 necessary to forestall this. puring.a meeting on 14.0ctober With the.US.Charge at Riyedh,.according to a sensitive . .sate.Department cable.,; Saudi Royal?Counsellor Rashad . Pharaon expressed.cOnsiderable 'apprehension that a continuation of :the contlict will inevitably lead to a,rcsurgence? of Soviet, influence, which-has been on the wane, he said, thanks in large measure to the- Saudis'?own effOrts. In this situation, moderates ,sUch ad Saudi Arabia and Jordan would be in an awkward* and expesed position 'To ease the Saudi dilemma Pharaon?seConded by a leading membor:of the royal fami1y--urg6d that-the p'g work quickly in conjunction With the. Soviets to 'achieve a.settlement along the .? lines of Resolution 242 ? .; No Obiection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 2bAl 25X1 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 CENTRAL' INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 157.0otober 1973 ? ? ? INTELLIGENCE. MEMORANDUM -MIDDLE EAST ' ANNEX II Sit tion Report Nilmber 39, : (As of 1130 EDT) Redeployment of Idraeli*Forces From'Syria to the Sjinai (estimated) ? .1. The current disposition of Israeli forces is ? hOt known precisely. Based on peacetime locations and force requirements of the past week, j.t Is es- timated that both the Northern (Golan: Heights) and Southern (Sinai) commands are intact ,and that some forces from the Central command.,(aordan) were sent to the Sinai front.. Before the transfer of forces from the Syrian front, than, the Israelis probably had eight infantry brigades and two armored. divisions facing Syria. Three. infantry brigadeS probably are, being held Opposite: Jordan, and four .armored divi- sions and three infantry brigades .are in the Sinai. ? ? . 2. The Israeli advance aPparently has halted on. the outskirts Of Sasa some 21 miles. from Damascus. There is. another Israeli thrUSt south of, Sasa but the front there generally ?approximates the 1967 ceasefire line. No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 25X1 ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 4. The situation' in the Sinai apparently has re- quired the Israelis to reinforce.thoir forces there at the expense or their objective--the destruction of the Syrian army-in: Syria.. The.Syrians.have not yet been defeated. Some units are conducting an 'orderly withdrawal'towara prepared defensive positions near Damascus, 'but :oth'ers continue to attack the Israelis. With thd exception of the, front along the Damascus road, the 'general battlellne still approxi- mates the 1967 coasefire'lin4. ? . ? 5. The Israelis probably will not advance much further toward 'Damascus. Rather, they probably will try to destroy Syrian forces along the ceasefire line' and consolidate their positions: there and along the Damascus road.. This could take 'as long as a week with the forces now committed. ' 7. The. cOntinued; presence. of a. viable enemy force oppoSite the Golan Heights will limit the extent to. ,which the asrnelis,dou'ld prudently draw down their ' own forces. there. s-They probably would consider that one armored. division and two to thrde infantry brigades could be transferred to the .Sinai frpnti'leaving five. to six infantry brigades to defend their positions in: Syria and the Golan Ueights With the remaining armored divisions held?asa mobile reserve to Counter any. serious Syrian counterattack. If units were with,- drawn from_the Syrian :front before.13 October they No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12.: LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 25X1. 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 ? ? could already'hav8 cOmpleted the triave to the Sinai--a journey of some 250 riles ?o a resOrvelirion 8, The reinforcement depicted above would ini- . . tially free ono of the other armored divisions, currently being held as a reserve in the Sinai, for a counter- attack on the Egyptians, The infantry brigades prob- ably would be committed as soon as they 'were rested and.refieted. They probably would.relieve all or part of the three 'infantry brigades which have been in con- tact with the EgypLians since-the.i4ar began. In this ease, there would be. no significant quantitative addi- tion to the Israeli force. 9. The addition of the armorbd division to the four aiready'in the Sinai would ndt significantly in- crease overall Israeli force levels there. If, however, the Israelis 'now have two armored divisions on line and , two in a mobile rese:rve status, the major armored units directly in contact with the Egyptians could be increased by 50 percent with the reserve held constant. . ? . A - 5 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/12 : LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2 25X1 , 25X1 25X1