MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 39 (AS OF 1130 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-543-2-4-2
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: October 15, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL -.INTELLIGCE AGENCY
? , I5:Octal-16r 1973 ?
INTELLIGENCE VIEMORAN bUM
State Dept & DIA review(s) completed for
entire document
MORI C03326465
W.CDDLE :EAST .
SitUation Report Number .39
?(as: of 1130' EDT) .
,
TM?, MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
? . GroUnd acti'Vity resuMed' On both fronts this
morning, ;although' fighting on the Egyptian front was
significantly lighter than yasterday On the. Syrian
front, both sides cohtinued to engage in a.rtillery
and tank duels, Eorces intensely shellr
in.g ar oUtheast of. Sasa.. Syrian forces a ppc_lat
to he fighting dogge11y., and isr.aeili' forces appear'
to.. be alrubst 'at S tand still on this front.
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SYRIA.1.4
. 6. The Lei3anose Oress claims that a heliborne
force of Syrian.. commandos have occupied a hill near
Al Q'unaytira.h as a. sprelude to an attack on the town.
This report, however, has not been confirmed by any
other sourc:e. Other reports suggest that lightly ?
armed forCes ranged along the Israe34 left flank on
the s 1 opes of Mount, Hermon may be .Pales tine .Libera-
tion Army ?cornmand.os: or fedayeen guer.eillas
?
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? BATTLE LbSSES .(cstimated)
(Estimated Losses as of. 1130, 15 October)
PerSonnel
Tanks
Aircraft
Ships
tsraed ? ,' Arab
2,900ZIT7Tirr 13,5,00-1670
750-050 .. 1,1.50-1,240
: 9,5-110 250-270
.4, (poss) : 20-26
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EGYPT .
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' . 14. President Sadat will address the nation ?
tomorrow at noon C4iro time WOO EDT) at the open-
ing of an extraordinary joint SG$s4.on of the People's
Assembly and tho Arab Socialist Vnion central commit-
tee. The speech will be Sadat's first public state-
ment since hostllities began.
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KUWAIT
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l6. The meeting of the OrganiZa:Eion Ot Ab
Petroleum Exporting :Countries (WEC),scheduled to
be convened in Kuwait tpmarrow has again bcen.post-
polled until 17 October.
. 16. .Meanwhile,: Sandi officials are becoming
Concerned that Soviet ?influenCe in the Middle East
Will rise in the:period.'following theconclusion of
.the war and that Ug action to ?implement or impose"
a peace based On Resolution 242 will 54 necessary
to forestall this. puring.a meeting on 14.0ctober
With the.US.Charge at Riyedh,.according to a sensitive
. .sate.Department cable.,; Saudi Royal?Counsellor Rashad
. Pharaon expressed.cOnsiderable 'apprehension that a
continuation of :the contlict will inevitably lead to
a,rcsurgence? of Soviet, influence, which-has been on
the wane, he said, thanks in large measure to the-
Saudis'?own effOrts. In this situation, moderates
,sUch ad Saudi Arabia and Jordan would be in an awkward*
and expesed position 'To ease the Saudi dilemma
Pharaon?seConded by a leading membor:of the royal
fami1y--urg6d that-the p'g work quickly in conjunction
With the. Soviets to 'achieve a.settlement along the
.? lines of Resolution 242
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CENTRAL' INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
157.0otober 1973 ?
?
? INTELLIGENCE. MEMORANDUM
-MIDDLE EAST
'
ANNEX II
Sit tion Report Nilmber 39, :
(As of 1130 EDT)
Redeployment of Idraeli*Forces From'Syria
to the Sjinai (estimated)
?
.1. The current disposition of Israeli forces is ?
hOt known precisely. Based on peacetime locations
and force requirements of the past week, j.t Is es-
timated that both the Northern (Golan: Heights) and
Southern (Sinai) commands are intact ,and that some
forces from the Central command.,(aordan) were sent
to the Sinai front.. Before the transfer of forces
from the Syrian front, than, the Israelis probably
had eight infantry brigades and two armored. divisions
facing Syria. Three. infantry brigadeS probably are,
being held Opposite: Jordan, and four .armored divi-
sions and three infantry brigades .are in the Sinai.
?
?
. 2. The Israeli advance aPparently has halted on.
the outskirts Of Sasa some 21 miles. from Damascus.
There is. another Israeli thrUSt south of, Sasa but the
front there generally ?approximates the 1967 ceasefire
line.
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4. The situation' in the Sinai apparently has re-
quired the Israelis to reinforce.thoir forces there
at the expense or their objective--the destruction
of the Syrian army-in: Syria.. The.Syrians.have not
yet been defeated. Some units are conducting an
'orderly withdrawal'towara prepared defensive positions
near Damascus, 'but :oth'ers continue to attack the
Israelis. With thd exception of the, front along the
Damascus road, the 'general battlellne still approxi-
mates the 1967 coasefire'lin4.
? . ?
5. The Israelis probably will not advance much
further toward 'Damascus. Rather, they probably will
try to destroy Syrian forces along the ceasefire
line' and consolidate their positions: there and along
the Damascus road.. This could take 'as long as a
week with the forces now committed. '
7. The. cOntinued; presence. of a. viable enemy force
oppoSite the Golan Heights will limit the extent to.
,which the asrnelis,dou'ld prudently draw down their
' own forces. there. s-They probably would consider that
one armored. division and two to thrde infantry brigades
could be transferred to the .Sinai frpnti'leaving five. to
six infantry brigades to defend their positions in:
Syria and the Golan Ueights With the remaining armored
divisions held?asa mobile reserve to Counter any.
serious Syrian counterattack. If units were with,-
drawn from_the Syrian :front before.13 October they
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? could already'hav8 cOmpleted the triave to the Sinai--a
journey of some 250 riles ?o a resOrvelirion
8, The reinforcement depicted above would ini- . .
tially free ono of the other armored divisions, currently
being held as a reserve in the Sinai, for a counter-
attack on the Egyptians, The infantry brigades prob-
ably would be committed as soon as they 'were rested
and.refieted. They probably would.relieve all or part
of the three 'infantry brigades which have been in con-
tact with the EgypLians since-the.i4ar began. In this
ease, there would be. no significant quantitative addi-
tion to the Israeli force.
9. The addition of the armorbd division to the
four aiready'in the Sinai would ndt significantly in-
crease overall Israeli force levels there. If, however,
the Israelis 'now have two armored divisions on line and
, two in a mobile rese:rve status, the major armored units
directly in contact with the Egyptians could be increased
by 50 percent with the reserve held constant.
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