MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 50 (AS OF 0630 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-543-4-5-9
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 18, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
18 October 1973
INTELLIGENCE 'NEKORANDU111
MIDDLE EAST
gjtuation Report. Number 50
(As of 0630 EDT)
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
l.. The night passes quietly on the Egyptian
front at ter a day in which ?t?he."bigges t ' armored ? clash
in 'Israel? history" was fought on the Egyptian front.'
There has been no further word on ' the outcome -of this
battle in the central sector of the canal. Both sides
report having inflicted heavy-losses, but the report-'
Ing does not suggest any significant chin ge in the
battle line running generally about, ten miles east of
the canal.
2; he Syrian front remained quiet after a day
in which little fighting was noted. The forces on
both sides may be resting or regrouping after the
heavy battles Tuesday. The Israelis apparently are
consolidating their positions in the salient the y
have pushed out from the. Golan Heights.. '
THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
3. Little activity was reported 'through the
evening after a day of heavy fighting desckibed. by
MORI/CDF
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Israeli authorities as "the biggest armored clash in
Israeli military history." Whilie both sides claim to
have inflicted heavy losses neither party has reported
any advances in the battle.' The jury is still out on
the results of the battle and 'J.ts decisiveness. Al- -
though the Israelis claim to be maintaining the-ini-
tiative, spokesmen emphasize that "this is not is-
rael.'s major offensive."
4. Announced activity during the evening ,was
limited to Israeli reports of naval raids. Targets
in the Port Said area on the MediterZa.nean coast and-
at Ras' Zafar'ana on the Gulf of 'Suez were bombarded.
The Israelis shelled targets on the Mediterranean
coast Tuesday night and launched, frogman attacks
into Port Said last night. The Israelis' have been
attacking. in the Ras Zafarana' area throughout the
war believing that Egyptian commando attacks on the
Sinai have come from this area.
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7 . 'US Military attache:. r in reports from a
briefing by Israeli authorities late yesterday, state
that the Zsraolis have thrown a ponton bridge over
the canal in 'the Deversoir area--where the raiding
.force-crossed-and have a bridgehead * five to ten
kilometers wide. Other Israelis reports have claimed
that this incursion will be maintained as a pipeline
and that' other units will be tunneled across. De-
spite initial claims that the force was to attack
Egyptian air do Anse. positions on the west bank,
there have been no reported or detected results from
the raid o
. 8. The Israelis again -hit Port Said with air
raids beginning at dawn. The Israelis ,have begun
almost every-day on the-Egyptian front with air
raids on. Port. said, conoontrat&ng mostly on the air
defenses. Yesterday, Israeli pilots reported that
the air defenses, had been reduced and an Israeli
situation report early* this morning states that no
operational SAM site6 remain in thc Port Said area.
This morning's attacks have been directed against
air defense targets', however e
. SYRIAN FRONT.
SOVIET AIRLIFT
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USSL - ARAB-STATES
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15, ' Araks workers froni west bark towns ? are, for
the most part, continuing to stay away from. their
jabs in Israel. ,As a result, there are tens of
thousands of. unemployed young Arab Wren. In Hebron
and Nablu 'Israel .. authorities - reportedly had to
threaten to ?regtii?s iti.on their vehicles in order to
hire drivers to transport foodstuffs from Xsra.el to
we 9t Dank towns : ?
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17. The' North Korean News Agency announced
today that North Korea has decided to provide mili-
tary and other. assistance to Egypt and Syria. The
Nor .h Koreans have:, in Baste provided military aid
to these countries for some tine. A North Korean
MIC-2X fighter squadron 'has been in Egypt since at
least the end of June, and North. Korean air force
instructors were noted training Syrian pilots in.
Syria as far back as - September X970..
i. o A majority of the French prefer their
country to. remain neutral in the Arab-Israeli- war,
according to a recent French public opinion poll.
'T'wenty, percent of the respondents believe Paris
should support, the Israelis while 12 percent favored
the Arabs a Those opting for neutrality were a
clear majority in :all French political groups, in-
cluding the Communists < Although t~i0 percent opted
for neutrality, 45 percent of ti ee sympathized
.with Israel.. Only among the Communists was there
a majority which sympathized with the Arabs.
19.' Only,30:percent of those polled, how-
ever, thought Paris was in fact -neutral in the
conflict. - Forty-seven, percent felt the government .
app irent:.uncertainty
was backincj the Arabs. The
of French public ' opinion about Arab objectives was
'ief lected in the 'almost even split between those
(45 percent) who believed the objective is the- de-
struction of Israel and those. (41 pexo tit) who feel
it is the recovery of Arab territory lost as a result
of the 1967 war. :
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22. ? Abu. Bh .bi today announced a: halt Of ail
e:xpoets to the United States, according to a western
news s.ervice.'? The announcement Warned that similar
.action would be taken against any other state which
in the future gave support to Israel.
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ANNEX A
.Inter-Arab Economic A.id
Summary
Economic 'aid by other Arab states to Egypt and
.Syria during-the course of the current hostilities
has been marked primarily by substantial financial
commitments and by measures to :supply badly needed
petroleum. The oil wealthy states have supplied
Egypt with approximately $850 million and Syria
with possibly X1.2 billion'. These substantial sums
shore tip the reserves of Egypt :and Syria, establish
the base for,major hard currency purchases, and are
extremely important in the context.of long-term
needs including post-war recovery. Jordan will re-
coi.ve about $ 41 million,annually from Kuwait under
the recently-resumed Khartoum payments, More impor?&'
Cant in terms-of immediate needs are supplies of
petroleum and petralsum products y which are in short
supply in ' Syria and of growing.concern to Cairo
? Iraq., Libya,. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon are
in the forefront. ,of efforts to'-supply Syria with
.petroleum products, including jet fuel, as destruc-
tion of the Homs. refinery has eliminated.domestic
output of these products. The Egyptians, reliant
on imports for about 60 percent of their crude oil
needs,,-probably are receiving supplies from Libya
and, possibly, from Algeria,
EGYPT
About $850 'million in new 'Arab aid to Egypt has
been fairly reliably reported -since the war. (See
? Table below) .It is not clear how Egypt has managed,
to persuade other Arabs that such sums are necessary
Before the war, Egypt anticipated a balance of pay
nments'-deficit .of some $250-300 million for CY 1973,
Reduction ':inn tourist revenues. and in oil exports for
the balance of this year will not increase this def-
ipit by more than.. $200 million and the war has not
-appreciably increased demand for imports not supplied
by the SoPiet Union, A report that Libya has."bought?
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some 30 planes for Egypt suggests that the USSR may
be demanding payment for arms resupply. In this case
Egypt does need hundreds of million of dollar. it
is equally- possible, on the other hand, that the USSR
has again granted large amounts of credit a In this
case Sadat may be following his own and Nasir's post-
1967 example, telling other Arabs that he needs money
for arms when, instead, he intends to bank the pro-
ceeds of. Arab aid for expenditure on civilian items
after the war,
Saudi. Arabia
Kuwait
Libya
Abu. Dhabi
$200 Million
$2ad , million
$200 million
$100 million
Qatar.' $100 million
-Egypt probably also is now getting Arab aid in
the form of crude oil to alleviate its worsening* POL
situation. "T 4OCO, operator of- the 150,000 bpd El
Morgan-oil field in the Gulf of Suez, has confirmed
that all Egyptiah oil fields in the Gulf of Suez were
shut down shortly after hostilities began More. re-
cently, closure of pipelines to the Mediterranean
has deprived the Alexandria refinery of some 20,000
bpd of oil provided by Iraq. -Libya probably as now
filling this clap from recently' increased 1iftings of
nationalized oil. ? .
The 'Egyptian refinery at Mustorod, which supplies
20,000 bpd of. the approximately 115,000 bpd of prod-
ucts refined in Egypt,. stets all of ' its feedstock from
the Gulf of Suez oil fields. The refinery, which.is
south of 'Cairo, is not connected by pipeline to the
Mediterranean and it is doubtful that most tankers
could be persuaded to carry crude from other sources
through the hazardous Gulf of Suez areas Shutdown
of this refinery will mainly affect the current sup-
ply of lower fractions used for such purposes as tank
fuel and power generation, and will force Egypt to
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-begin drawing on reserves of these products. if all
.civilian * storage capacity was full at the onset of
hostilities, Egypt probably can compensate for the
loss of biustorod ? for several months---provided crude'
imports to Alexandria are not interruptedi Imports
provide at least two-thirds of -.the feedstock for
Egyptts 96,000 bpd refining capacity at Alexandria.
The jet fuel,situation will depend on continued
-
availability of crude reapplies : at the Ale xandri.a re
fi.neries , : on the ' extent of air-force involvement in
the war, and on the ability of the USSR to delivery
supplies.. Under,peacetime. conditions Soviet deliv-
eries of about-3000 bpd have been adequate-to sup-
plement domestic output of kerosene and jet fuel. .If
this" level of supply is maintained, and crude deliv-
eries to Alexandria are not interrupted,. the extra
demand of an air war possibly could be sustained for
a. month out of stores a
Financial assistance to Damascus from other Arab
c?untr~,es has amounted to possibly $1.2? billion, as
indicated. in the following table. The magnitude of
these funds is well beyond any conceivable immediate
needs that Syria has for spending. By way of compari-
son, .the $1.2' billion represents roughly half of
Syria*'s annual national output; and would provide pay-
ment for rota 2 1/2 years of imports. \4hile there is
at least some question regarding the reported $1 bi.l-
lion..contribution from Saudi Arabia, the sum Is not
ountry ? s' capability
cut of line with ' that evil-rich country's'
to provide funds: Even if Saudi contributions were
.one-tenth the.. reported. amount, .Syria's financial
position would -b6 strengthened: significantly.
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Satadi Arabia $1,000 million
Algeria
Libya
Kuwait
Abu Dhabi
10 million
20 million
85 million
10 million
6o million
$lr],S5 million
The various Arab oil prQdUcifg COU,ntx'ios are
hiahly
attempting to alleviate the petroleum hshortageprwhich
apparently is -confronting Sy
had built-up. stool-'s prior to the hostilities, Syria
has sustained substantial damage to its storage facil-
ities and has ' lost its sale producer of Petrole
products, the :xoms ref ineary. ?. Iraci, Liby
Arabia, Lebangn, and Kuwait have ) een Anvolvod in
varying w&y's in helpirig Syria Obtain supplies
Iraq has..been trucking gasoline, ]terosene and
other products, including possibly jet fue17 has
requested Kuwait to' provide transports to move fuel
to Syria? :made eftorts to procure fuels for Syaiaaant:a
additi-
from Lebanon; and may be diverting
of products from'.i ts' nort:hern re inery to Syria. c-
cording to one message, Baghdad plans to supply 500
tons of oil daily. .
Libya, on ii !October, directed its deliverin.
y to
Saudi Arabia to arrange for. the i, e
Syria of about 2Q0,000. tons of petroleum products,, in-
cluding 14,000 tons of aircraft fuel.
Lebanon has 'been employing-up to 30 private tank
trucks 3.n. daily dc;i.ivery of petroleum products. On
.12 October., Lebanon was asked by Iraq to provide Syria
with as much aims: aft: fuel, gasoline, and other petro-
leum products as could be produced; the request was
accompanied by the notice - that Syria is in urgent
need of these items.
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