MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 96 (AS OF 1500 EST)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-1-22-2
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: October 31, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
31. October 1973
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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
MIDDLE EAST
Situation Report Number 96
(as of 1500 EST)
State Dept has
reviewed
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL;
(All times cited in military paragraphs are
Cairo/Tel Aviv time, unless otherwise specified.)
1. Both fronts remained quiet during the day,
but there were several minor incidents on the Egyp-
tian front. Israel continued to fly patrols and re-
connaissance missions over both fronts without inci-
dent.
EGYPTIAN FRONT
2.. The front continued quiet through the day,
but several minor incidents were reported by UN ob-
servers. Israeli air activity was light anal consisted
of fighter patrols and reconnaissance flights.
3. UN observers located some seven miles south-
west of Ismailia reported Israeli forces firing machine
guns at 1155 after. Egyptian forces crossed over the
cease-fire line.
MORI/CDF per
C03316241
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0
4. UN observers also reported that an Egyptian
infantry unit on the east bank near Suez City moved
forward about a mile and a half during the morning
and was now within 200 meters of Israeli, lines. No
fighting was reported..
5. At 1130, a UN patrol reported that two Is-
raeli vehicles were moving to recover 15 tanks in an.
area some nine miles east of Ismailia. An Egyptian
commander threatened to fire at the Israelis if they
approached any closer to the tanks, some of which were
reportedly undamaged. UN officials were attempting
to contact the Israelis to persuade them to cease the
recovery operation.
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SYRIAN FRONT
10. Israeli and Syrian forces continued to
honor the Cease-fire today. Isra?li air activity was
ligiit and consisted of fighter patrols and some pene-
trations Of Syrian, Jordanian, and Lebanese Airspace,
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SADAT PRESS CONFERENCE
13. President Sadat acknowledged in a press
conference today that lie is under some pressure from
his military staff to push Israeli troops back forcibly
to the lines of 22 October, but said he would restrain
them until he sees the results of current negotiations
with the US. Sadat said that he has prevented the
military from taking action until Ismail Falti, newly
appointed foreign minister, has completed his talks
in Washington and secretary Kissinger has visited
Cairo.
14. If these talks succeed, Sadat said, he is
prepared immediately to begin arrangements for a peace
conference and to open the Suez Canal within four,
mmonths. if they fail, l;gypt will take the "necessary
measures" to force a return to the original cease-fire
lines. Sadat justified this as a move that would
merely be an implementation of recent Security Coun-
cil resolutions.
154, Sadat also acknowledged that his -decision
to accept the original cease-fire has brought him
some criticism, and he defended himself with the claim
that the US airlift had virtually forced him to stop
fighting. Noting that Israeli Defense Minister Dayan
has himself said that Israel originally had only a
14 day supply of ammunition, Sadat said, that Egyp-
tian-forces had initially held.their own and gotten
Israel down to a three-day supply before new US weapons
began arriving on the battlefield. Sadat was not
totally negative, howevers he credited the US, de-
spite its help to Israel, with a "constructive atti-
tude" thus far in its efforts.to find peace.
16. In answer to a later question on whether.
Egypt would engage in direct'talks with Israel, Sadat
adopted an ambivalent position that indicates he is
still chary of characterizing as "direct" the face-
to-face talks he is ready to undertake in a peace
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conference. Sada.t answered the specific question'
with a flat "not" but then went on to explain
that Egyptian and Israeli military repxesentativeshave already met in the presence of UN observers and
probably will meet again. The presence of UN ob-
servers apparently removes, for the benefit of Arab
seasi,bi.7,itie6, the distastefulness of meeting directly.
Similarly at a peace con.fergnco., the presence of rep-
resentatives other than the principals'would serve
as the buffer the Arabs apparently still insist on.
17. At the conclusion of the peace conference
in ?a summary comment, Sadat made. what might be a ref-
erence to the Scud missile. The remark was partiou..
laxly oblique and was not made in a belligerent con-
text. Appealing in the interests of peace for is-
r
raeli understanding of the new Arab reality, Sadat
said that three basic concepts must be accepted: that
the Arabs are prepared for a .long war': that the Arabs..
have proved that they ..can accept and inflict losses;
and that neither Israeli attempts to* humiliate the
Arabs nor "threats against the depths of our coun-
try" are to any avail. The reference to threats
against the depths of Egypt probably implies Scuds.;
Sadat's first mention of surface-to-surface missiles
in his speech of 1G October was put in the context of
a, deterrent against Israeli attempts to attack Egypt's
heartland.
18. The US Interests Section in Cairo reports
.that a visible relaxation has taken place there over
the last few days as shops, reopen and night--life
returns to normal, following the lifting of the war-
time blackoiat. Local news interpretations of the
military picture seem to have convinced Egyptians
that the Israeli penetration into the west bank
neither threatens the Third Army nor Egypt itself.
The rumors of Israeli infiltrators have also subsided
in measure with the increased sense of security and
confidence.
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19. press coverage has moved away from charges
of Israeli cease-fire violations-and denials of Is-
raeli advances . to focus on the diplomatic front,
where it dramatizes such stories as Ismail Fahmi's
consultations with Secretary of State Kissinger and
the Egyptian-Israeli agreement to exchange wounded.
prisoners.
20. President ,Sadat's own position, while
nowhere near the height attained during the early
days of the war, is assessed by the Interests
Section as being generally stable. Although cer-
tain elements of the Egyptian intelligentsia, in
particular Muhammad Hasanayn Haykal of Al Ahram,
reserve strong doubts about Sadat's deci on ;Lb
bring . an ' end to the fighting, most-of the civilian
establishment seem hopeful that Egypt's political
goals may-be achieved through negotiation and are
therefore willing to give Sadat.a chance.
21. -In his press conference today Sadat.as-?
serted that he was under considerable military pres-
sure to continue the fighting, but the US Interests
Section reports that the army is neither disloyal
to the president nor inclined to counter his po-
litical decisions.
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23. Syria hasp in the meantime, rejected the
concept .of.di'i.rect negotiations with Israel. Damascus
radio today broadcast a statement by the Syrian in--
formatidh minister noting 'that the cease-fire.resolu-
tion does not call for direct talks. and affirming
Syria's rejection . of any bargaining process over Syrian
territory.
24. This statement places-Syria in the intractable
pbsition Egypt held for six years until President Sadat
offered on 16 October to participate in a peace con-
ference that would in effect place the Arab combatants
at the same table with Israel. Egypt is as. adamant ,
as Syria on the full return of its territory, but it
appears-now to be. somewhat more forthcoming on the
subject of parleying with Israel.
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29, In the Indian Ocean, the Soviet destroyer
and the'destroyer escort that were apparently waiting
for' the USS Hancock task group now have begun head-
ing southwest. They are now estimated to be near the
Chagos Archipelago, about 1,000 nautical miles south.-
west of Sri Lanka. The Soviet Naval Force in the
Indian Ocean is estimated to include 6 surface warships,
1 .Submarine, and 17 support ships.
SOVIET PRESS
fabricating "sensations." TASS contrasts the 1'Aurore
of the article, a Monsieur D'Iiareourt, is described
as an overzealous journalist with a reputation for
30. A 'PASS statement today angrily denounced
an article which. appear^ed. in the French newspaper
L'Aurore yesterday which claimed the Russians were
preparing to send "atomic bombs" to Egypt. The author
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item with stories being prLfttcd in the $163t i ueuvman
press that question the necessity of the tY3 m1l.itary
alert.
31. L'Aurore is a Paris daily whose editorial
slant is fax tE; right in the political spectrum.
.U' Harcourt served with French forces in Indochina and
is said to have good contacts within the k'rench mili-
tary and in the Paris military attache community.
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UNITED NATIONS
34. All Security Council members except the
Soviet Union have agreed upon a humanitarian appeal
to Egypt, Syria, and Israel,: The message would state
that the UN Emergency Force (UNEF) will cooperate with,
the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)
in its humanitarian endeavors in the Middle, East and
"appeal urgently for full cooperation of your govern-
ments with UNEF and ICRC in carrying out all of their
responsibilities in the area, including regular ac-
tivities of the ICRC in connection with prisoners
of war." Moscow is adamantly opposed to, the refer-
ence to prisoners of war, which it argues will assist
Israeli obstruction of a peace settlement.
254 Secretary-General Waldheim expects UNEF to
attain next week approximately one-third of its desig"
nated 7,000-man strength. This enlargement will come
from-further increases in the Austrian, Finnish,'and
Swedish contingents and the additional transfer of an
expanded Irish unit from Cyprus. 'Canadian support
personnel--not included in this estimate--should also
join UNEF by that time.. Consultations are continuing
on the contingents to be drawn from states not par-
ticipating in the Cyprus force.
'ALGERIA ON CEASE-FIRE
'36. In its first official statement on the Mid-.
die East since the establishment of the cease-fire,
Algeria today announced that.itt "will stand firm with
Egypt, Syria and Palestine until the total liberation
of their territory." Although the statement carried no
direct reference to UN Security Council Resolution 338
.or to the cease-fire, the US Embassy in Algiers be-
lieves that Algeria's support for the Egyptian and
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Syrian acceptance of the cease--fire is based on the
understanding that-Palestinians are to be included
in any final peace negotiations.
LIBYA
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? 39. Until now, the Libyan regime has allowed
its Arab neighbors to set the pace with petroleum
sanctions, but the threat against Germany almost
certainly heralds an attempt by President Qadh.afi.to
put Libya back in the forefront of Arab oil politics.
Because the Libyans supply only a nominal. amount of
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oil to the US, they can be expected to place. maximum
pressure on Western Europe, which depends on Libya
for over 11 percent of its oil..
EGYPT
40. President Sadat today formally appointed
Ismail Fahmi, now conducting talks in Washington, as
Egypt's foreign minister, replacing Muhammad Hasan
?Zayyat. Zayyat will serve as an adviser to Sadat.
The move formalizes a situation that has been in ef-
fect 's.ince the first days of the war. Zayyat, who was at
the UN at the outbreak of hostilities, has been out
of the decision making process since then, and was
never much more than.a conduit for the?policies of
Sadat and his adviser IXafiz Ismail. Fahini has long
substantive experience in foreign affairs and has
been acting foreign m4:nister since the beginning of -
the war.
C. A. ;,
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