MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 21 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8
Release Decision: 
RIPLIM
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
11
Document Creation Date: 
January 11, 2017
Document Release Date: 
January 4, 2013
Sequence Number: 
14
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 10, 1973
Content Type: 
MEMO
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8.pdf486.14 KB
Body: 
25X1 IV 25X1 ? C No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 DIA review completed State Dept review completed. 25X1 ? ? CENTAAL'INTELLIGENC AGENCY .10 October. 1913 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM MIDDLE EAST , 8ituation Report Number 21 (As of 2230 EDT) THE MILITARY SITUATION GPINERAL MORI/CDF per C05480399 1. After intenso ground and air fighting today, the Israelis apparently .have reversed the tide of bat-? tie against the Syrians, driving. then out of Qunaytirah ad back toward the 1967 cease-fire line. It is -still- not clear whethor the Syrians .have ben fore back aCrods .the cease-fire line, despite Israeli claims. The Jordanians reportedly are. preparing to. deploy ar. armored brigades to Syria, to an area west of Daria. At this location, the brigade would not be ?engaged if the Israelis overran the predent Syrian lines, but could act as a buffer between advancing Israeli units and Jordanian territOry. ? 2; On the Egyptian fronts the. Egyptians appear to be consolidating, and cautiously expanding, their position on the east bank of the canal, possibly in preparation for efforts to advance to the Sinai passes. The Egyptians_have apparently launched some small probes into the Sinai but these have been turned back. The Israelis have not, however, initiated major ground action against the main Egyptian forces over the past. severa1 days but continue -to harass. tho Egyptian Units with airstrikes. No Obiection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 25X1 Fa. 5X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 THE EGYPTIAN FRONT . 3. The leVel'Of ground fighting appears to be reduced, compared to that of the past several days. The Israelis claim to have contained the Egyptians and to have .driven :to the al north of El Kantara, relieving an outpost that had held out for five days. While the reports may bolster Israeli moral?, the Israeli actions appear, in reality, to be inconsequen- tial. The area where the Israelis claim to have, reached the canal 'is north of the main Egyptian force concentrations and is in an area-",characterized by swamps--that probably will not figure significantly.. .in battles for the east bank.. 4. Despite the massive infusion of men and materiel onto the east bank over the past five days, the Egyptians apparently have not .attempted a strong. drive into the Sinai. They appear content to consol- idate, and Cautiously eXpand, their newly on posi- tions on the east bank, possibly in preparation for a later advance toward the Mitla.and Gidi passes. Thus far, the Egyptians have presented only a frontal target to the Israeli fot'ces, reducing their exposure to the mobile Israeli tacties which routed the Egyp- tian army in tho Sinai. in 1967. The Egyptians have, however, launched some smaller probes--probably for reconnaissance?which have been defeated by the Isra- elis. . ? ?? 6. The Israelis, after some bloody but appar- ently unsuccessful counterattacks.earlier, have not initiated major ground action against the Egyptian forces. The Israelis are possibly seeking to contain a major Egyptian thrust while awaiting reinforcement ? from the Golan Heights before engaging the main Egyp- ? tian force. The: Israeli Air Force has bombed port Said ? No Obiection.to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 r 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 heavily and continues to harass tlio Egyptian forces in the Sinai. A Western correspondent with the Egyp- tian force reported the Israeli air attacks were in- effective, however, and that the Israelis did not seem to be making an effort to destroy the heavily defended, easily repaired bridges. THE SYRIAN FRONT 8, Little fighting is reported along the Golan Heights "tonighte aftor intense battles in the air and on the ground today. In contrast to the 320 Israeli? sorties during the daylight hours, only 16 Israeli "aircraft flew over southern Lebanon and northern Is- rael this evening; The Israelis appear to have taken the initiative today and have held Ounaytirah since early morning. It is still not clear whether the Syr- ians have been forced back across the cease-fire line. ] According to UN observers, Syrian forward elements may still be on the-Israeli side of the line, however. Prime Minister Meir stated in her evening television 'broadcast that the Syrian Army was being held east of the Cease-fire line. Inis location in soutnern t*tria wouia 'not be In a.nuncdiatet danger if the Israelis overran present Syrian lines, but the brigade could act as a buffer between the Israelis and. :Tordan itself. The . 3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 . ? 40th armored brigade has. proven its ability in the past and could slow' an Israeli attack on Syria through Jordan, Admitting that aordanian intervention would be a problem, an Israeli military oficial responding to press questiens this eveningi stated that at this . stage 'Jordan's involvement would be far less of a problem?than?earlj:er. 25X1 ? Mn nhiAction to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04 : LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 25X1 ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25x, ISRAEL' 13, In a televised broadcast and news confer- ence on 10 October, Prime Minister Meir gave a rel- atively optimistic account of the military situa- tion, The prime Minister claimed .the Golan Heights were in Tsraeli handS,and that .settlers were re- turning to their homes in the .area. .The grime Min- ister also said .that a "basic change". had .taken .place in the Sinai, With Israeli forces. "standing very close to the canal.." As f?r. the future, Prime Zainister Meir said there was no debt about victory, but that 'difficult days were ahead. She .urged that Xing nusayn be "wise enough and.responsible enough . ? to keep out of the fighting," repiing'him? that ? . Tel Aviv_had once before--in .1967,-asked him not to enter into war with Israel. 25X1 Mn nhiAction to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 4. 25X1 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 16. In ?talks. with the US ambassador tonight, both the King and the prime minister emphasized that only a, cease-fire.along present lines could keep Jordan cut of the war. In an obvious reflec- tion of their view that such-a cease-fire .is unlikely, the governMent today announced .that it was calling up' reserveS and mobilizing All the country's resources for the "war effort." 'UNITED NATIONS . . ?17. SecretaryrGeneral Waldheim has been push- ing for the Security Council to reoonVene, appar- ' ently.concerned about the UN's appearance of non- chalance in the midst of war. According. to a press report, Waldheim intends tip make. a.personal appeal to the belligerents to end the war, but would probably stop short of a call for a?cease-' 'fire. Ambassador Scali does not believe the Secu- rity ,CoUncil will reconvene. on 11 October. IS. Nonaligned countries at the UN met this afternoon to discuss the Middle tast Situation: . Tho session produced only a decision to.send mes- sages. of support to Egypt and Syria... Radical states wanted to. 'issue an appeal.to all .nonaligned states to.sever relations with ISrael,.but the move was defeated. :Foreign .Minister Zayyat of Egypt persuaded. the Yugoslays not to introduce a resolu- tion--which was being drafted on 9. October by some nonaligned *countries--that would have called for a cease-fire*:linked to a. peace conif.erpnrp.lIneqm,- auspipes. 25X1 ? 25X1 6 No Oblection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 251 25X1 ? THE CAIRO SC.ENE 20. The US Intorests Section in Cairo reports the city has been' virtually norMal throughout the day.. There ? was, a 'slight inereasean the guard force around the Interests Section, but patrols around the city were described as being at the ."normal low level. There are reports of wounded arriving in Cairo and one hotel has already been converted to a military .hospital. 21. The Cairo press is carrying many photos Of Israeli POWs, but government information policy con- tinues to be to reflect events on the battlefronts in a fairly accurate way and to try to keep.excite- men.t at a low level. The media :are nat speculating. about the future The Interests Section indicates that the US is not. a ?focus of criticism and, for the most part, remains out of the news. SAUDI ARABIA - ? 22. King Faysal ?hs summoned the, ranking US ? diplomat in Saudi Arabia to a meeting in Riyad tomor- row morning. The subject of the meeting is not known at this time, but it could be to. inform the Us that the Saudis :intend to send a small ? military 'force to the Syrian front and aircraft. to Egypt. - . ? ? 7 No Obiection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 011 25X1 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04 LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 25X1 OIL 23. .Radio Baghdad called on all Arabs tonight to apply pressure on the governments of Arab oil- producing states to suspend the flow of oil to the US. . . 24. Oil operations in Saudi Arabia were re-. ported to be on a "business as .usual basis" as of 9 October--with the exception of is running at one-half capacity. WEST EUROPEAN REACTION 25. French policy on the Middle East remains pro-Arab, largely for economic. asons. The rrench Foreign Ministry informed US Embassy officers yester- day that France intends to secka peaceful solution to the crisis via UN Resolution 242. Paris is per- suaded that the great powers, includina_France, hold the key to this solution. ?26. chancellor Brandt .said today that it is an illusion to asSume that confliets in the ?Middle Past can he solved by war. He asked?that*all.'states. in the.. Middle East be given the right to exist and ap- pealed. to the world poWors to wprk for peace. 27. A Turkish. Foreign Ministry spokesman denied_ today that .NATO installations in' Turkey would be used to intervene in Middle East events. He said these installations are related to the security and defense of NATO regions and would net be used for any other purpose. . 8 nhipe.tinn to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04 LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 25X1 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 ? 28. The Vatican is disturbed by the renewed fighting in the.Middie nast, and particularly dis- tressed over the bombing of Damaqcuso A Vatican official told a US diplomat today that he did not, think the Damascus raid was a 'fair quid pro quo for Syrian*missile attacks on Israeli civilians. The Vatican also feels that prossing,for a return to the 6 October ceazefiro lino is likely to be counter- productive in the search to end hostilities.. , 9 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 e ? . ''v , .1 . ANNEX Soviet Mediterranean Naval .Activit l. The Soviet Mediterranean Squadron continues to devote its efforts to gathering intelligence on the Arab-israeli conflict,. watching the US Sixth Fleet, and evacuating Soviet civilians from the area. Most Soviet combatants .are,located:Ilear Crete or in the Aegean Sea.' ? . . 2. Two Soviet intelligence ships are stationed off the Levant, coast to intercept communications of ' tho combatant forces6. Ono is about 60 nautical miles northwest .of Tel Aviv, and the other .is some 50 nauti- cal miles. west of Tartous/ Syria. ' 3. The. USS :Independence task group, still south of the east tip of. Crete, is being:trailed by a Soviet' submarine tender--the Soviet. flagship -for the Medi- terranean Squadron?and ?a missile frigate, a. destroyer, and. an intelligence collection shil?. One Soviet de- 'Stroyer escort is in the Strait of;Sicily.and. two other destroyer escorts plus a 'Kashin class missile frigate and ?subtender are in the Gulf of Hairmaraat. All of these ships are in position to trail the US attack carrier F.. D' Roosevelt whiCh was scheduled to depart Barcelona this morning,:if it proceeds .east. .The cruiser and two'destroyerS that. exited the Black Sea this morning are now in:the-Aegean: Sea. ? ? A. A Soviet repair ship that, participated in the initial evacuation Of 'Soviet civilian dependents from Alexandria is now back in that port, presumably after.. having transferred the civilians to. anothe): ship may be there to evacuate: bore .Soviet na- tioncils, Nine small. Soviet naval auxiliary ships . and yard craft are also in Alexandria,. These ships, a minesweeper near Latakia, 'and a naval research ship. in Solium, Egypt, are the only 'other Soviet surface units of any kind known to be in or near any port In the east Mediterranean. '25X1 AI Nn Obiecti011 to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 ? ,,- ? .** ? ?Iza :* No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 S.. At least four Soviet diesel submarines have left the Mediterranean en route to their base in the Soviet Northern Fleet, and four or five more are e).;- pected to depart soon These units.wore relieved by a task force of nine to ten submarine's in early October. Then: the relieving operation is.complete, the Soviet submarine force in the Mediterranean will" total about nine diesel-powered attack submarines, one.- diesel-powered cruise-missile submarine, and one nu- clear-powered submarine of an undetermined type.. 6. .Four of the diesel Submarines were sighted 0w9 October in the central Mediterranean,Jleading east. At least one of these submarines is apparently DOW in the eastern Mediterranean, and anti-submarine warfare helicOpters from the USS independence reported a submarine contact near the soviet: flagship this .afternoon. The whereabouts of the other Soviet sub- marines is is unknown.. 25X1: ? 0 0 'A-2 ? ???.. ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8 ? 4..