MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 21 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-4-14-8
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: October 10, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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? CENTAAL'INTELLIGENC AGENCY
.10 October. 1913
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
MIDDLE EAST ,
8ituation Report Number 21
(As of 2230 EDT)
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GPINERAL
MORI/CDF per
C05480399
1. After intenso ground and air fighting today,
the Israelis apparently .have reversed the tide of bat-?
tie against the Syrians, driving. then out of Qunaytirah
ad back toward the 1967 cease-fire line. It is -still-
not clear whethor the Syrians .have ben fore back
aCrods .the cease-fire line, despite Israeli claims.
The Jordanians reportedly are. preparing to. deploy ar.
armored brigades to Syria, to an area west of Daria.
At this location, the brigade would not be ?engaged
if the Israelis overran the predent Syrian lines, but
could act as a buffer between advancing Israeli units
and Jordanian territOry.
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2; On the Egyptian fronts the. Egyptians appear
to be consolidating, and cautiously expanding, their
position on the east bank of the canal, possibly in
preparation for efforts to advance to the Sinai passes.
The Egyptians_have apparently launched some small
probes into the Sinai but these have been turned back.
The Israelis have not, however, initiated major ground
action against the main Egyptian forces over the past.
severa1 days but continue -to harass. tho Egyptian
Units with airstrikes.
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THE EGYPTIAN FRONT .
3. The leVel'Of ground fighting appears to be
reduced, compared to that of the past several days.
The Israelis claim to have contained the Egyptians
and to have .driven :to the al north of El Kantara,
relieving an outpost that had held out for five days.
While the reports may bolster Israeli moral?, the
Israeli actions appear, in reality, to be inconsequen-
tial. The area where the Israelis claim to have,
reached the canal 'is north of the main Egyptian force
concentrations and is in an area-",characterized by
swamps--that probably will not figure significantly..
.in battles for the east bank..
4. Despite the massive infusion of men and
materiel onto the east bank over the past five days,
the Egyptians apparently have not .attempted a strong.
drive into the Sinai. They appear content to consol-
idate, and Cautiously eXpand, their newly on posi-
tions
on the east bank, possibly in preparation for
a later advance toward the Mitla.and Gidi passes.
Thus far, the Egyptians have presented only a frontal
target to the Israeli fot'ces, reducing their exposure
to the mobile Israeli tacties which routed the Egyp-
tian army in tho Sinai. in 1967. The Egyptians have,
however, launched some smaller probes--probably for
reconnaissance?which have been defeated by the Isra-
elis. .
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6. The Israelis, after some bloody but appar-
ently unsuccessful counterattacks.earlier, have not
initiated major ground action against the Egyptian
forces. The Israelis are possibly seeking to contain
a major Egyptian thrust while awaiting reinforcement
? from the Golan Heights before engaging the main Egyp-
? tian force. The: Israeli Air Force has bombed port Said
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heavily and continues to harass tlio Egyptian forces
in the Sinai. A Western correspondent with the Egyp-
tian force reported the Israeli air attacks were in-
effective, however, and that the Israelis did not seem
to be making an effort to destroy the heavily defended,
easily repaired bridges.
THE SYRIAN FRONT
8, Little fighting is reported along the Golan
Heights "tonighte aftor intense battles in the air and
on the ground today. In contrast to the 320 Israeli?
sorties during the daylight hours, only 16 Israeli
"aircraft flew over southern Lebanon and northern Is-
rael this evening; The Israelis appear to have taken
the initiative today and have held Ounaytirah since
early morning. It is still not clear whether the Syr-
ians have been forced back across the cease-fire line.
] According to UN observers, Syrian forward
elements may still be on the-Israeli side of the line,
however. Prime Minister Meir stated in her evening
television 'broadcast that the Syrian Army was being
held east of the Cease-fire line.
Inis location in soutnern t*tria wouia
'not be In a.nuncdiatet danger if the Israelis overran
present Syrian lines, but the brigade could act as a
buffer between the Israelis and. :Tordan itself. The
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40th armored brigade has. proven its ability in the
past and could slow' an Israeli attack on Syria through
Jordan, Admitting that aordanian intervention would
be a problem, an Israeli military oficial responding
to press questiens this eveningi stated that at this .
stage 'Jordan's involvement would be far less of a
problem?than?earlj:er.
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ISRAEL'
13, In a televised broadcast and news confer-
ence on 10 October, Prime Minister Meir gave a rel-
atively optimistic account of the military situa-
tion, The prime Minister claimed .the Golan Heights
were in Tsraeli handS,and that .settlers were re-
turning to their homes in the .area. .The grime Min-
ister also said .that a "basic change". had .taken
.place in the Sinai, With Israeli forces. "standing
very close to the canal.." As f?r. the future, Prime
Zainister Meir said there was no debt about victory,
but that 'difficult days were ahead. She .urged that
Xing nusayn be "wise enough and.responsible enough .
? to keep out of the fighting," repiing'him? that
? . Tel Aviv_had once before--in .1967,-asked him not to
enter into war with Israel.
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16. In ?talks. with the US ambassador tonight,
both the King and the prime minister emphasized
that only a, cease-fire.along present lines could
keep Jordan cut of the war. In an obvious reflec-
tion of their view that such-a cease-fire .is unlikely,
the governMent today announced .that it was calling up'
reserveS and mobilizing All the country's resources
for the "war effort."
'UNITED NATIONS
. .
?17. SecretaryrGeneral Waldheim has been push-
ing for the Security Council to reoonVene, appar- '
ently.concerned about the UN's appearance of non-
chalance in the midst of war. According. to a
press report, Waldheim intends tip make. a.personal
appeal to the belligerents to end the war, but
would probably stop short of a call for a?cease-'
'fire. Ambassador Scali does not believe the Secu-
rity ,CoUncil will reconvene. on 11 October.
IS. Nonaligned countries at the UN met this
afternoon to discuss the Middle tast Situation: .
Tho session produced only a decision to.send mes-
sages. of support to Egypt and Syria... Radical
states wanted to. 'issue an appeal.to all .nonaligned
states to.sever relations with ISrael,.but the move
was defeated. :Foreign .Minister Zayyat of Egypt
persuaded. the Yugoslays not to introduce a resolu-
tion--which was being drafted on 9. October by some
nonaligned *countries--that would have called for a
cease-fire*:linked to a. peace conif.erpnrp.lIneqm,-
auspipes.
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THE CAIRO SC.ENE
20. The US Intorests Section in Cairo reports
the city has been' virtually norMal throughout the
day.. There ? was, a 'slight inereasean the guard force
around the Interests Section, but patrols around the
city were described as being at the ."normal low level.
There are reports of wounded arriving in Cairo and
one hotel has already been converted to a military
.hospital.
21. The Cairo press is carrying many photos Of
Israeli POWs, but government information policy con-
tinues to be to reflect events on the battlefronts
in a fairly accurate way and to try to keep.excite-
men.t at a low level. The media :are nat speculating.
about the future The Interests Section indicates
that the US is not. a ?focus of criticism and, for the
most part, remains out of the news.
SAUDI ARABIA
- ? 22. King Faysal ?hs summoned the, ranking US ?
diplomat in Saudi Arabia to a meeting in Riyad tomor-
row morning. The subject of the meeting is not known
at this time, but it could be to. inform the Us that
the Saudis :intend to send a small ? military 'force to
the Syrian front and aircraft. to Egypt.
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OIL
23. .Radio Baghdad called on all Arabs tonight
to apply pressure on the governments of Arab oil-
producing states to suspend the flow of oil to the
US. . .
24. Oil operations in Saudi Arabia were re-.
ported to be on a "business as .usual basis" as of
9 October--with the exception of
is running at one-half capacity.
WEST EUROPEAN REACTION
25. French policy on the Middle East remains
pro-Arab, largely for economic. asons. The rrench
Foreign Ministry informed US Embassy officers yester-
day that France intends to secka peaceful solution
to the crisis via UN Resolution 242. Paris is per-
suaded that the great powers, includina_France, hold
the key to this solution.
?26. chancellor Brandt .said today that it is an
illusion to asSume that confliets in the ?Middle Past
can he solved by war. He asked?that*all.'states. in
the.. Middle East be given the right to exist and ap-
pealed. to the world poWors to wprk for peace.
27. A Turkish. Foreign Ministry spokesman denied_
today that .NATO installations in' Turkey would be used
to intervene in Middle East events. He said these
installations are related to the security and defense
of NATO regions and would net be used for any other
purpose. .
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28. The Vatican is disturbed by the renewed
fighting in the.Middie nast, and particularly dis-
tressed over the bombing of Damaqcuso A Vatican
official told a US diplomat today that he did not,
think the Damascus raid was a 'fair quid pro quo for
Syrian*missile attacks on Israeli civilians. The
Vatican also feels that prossing,for a return to the
6 October ceazefiro lino is likely to be counter-
productive in the search to end hostilities..
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. ANNEX
Soviet Mediterranean Naval .Activit
l. The Soviet Mediterranean Squadron continues
to devote its efforts to gathering intelligence on
the Arab-israeli conflict,. watching the US Sixth
Fleet, and evacuating Soviet civilians from the area.
Most Soviet combatants .are,located:Ilear Crete or in
the Aegean Sea.' ?
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2. Two Soviet intelligence ships are stationed
off the Levant, coast to intercept communications of '
tho combatant forces6. Ono is about 60 nautical miles
northwest .of Tel Aviv, and the other .is some 50 nauti-
cal miles. west of Tartous/ Syria. '
3. The. USS :Independence task group, still south
of the east tip of. Crete, is being:trailed by a Soviet'
submarine tender--the Soviet. flagship -for the Medi-
terranean Squadron?and ?a missile frigate, a. destroyer,
and. an intelligence collection shil?. One Soviet de-
'Stroyer escort is in the Strait of;Sicily.and. two
other destroyer escorts plus a 'Kashin class missile
frigate and ?subtender are in the Gulf of Hairmaraat.
All of these ships are in position to trail the US
attack carrier F.. D' Roosevelt whiCh was scheduled
to depart Barcelona this morning,:if it proceeds
.east. .The cruiser and two'destroyerS that. exited
the Black Sea this morning are now in:the-Aegean:
Sea. ? ?
A. A Soviet repair ship that, participated in
the initial evacuation Of 'Soviet civilian dependents
from Alexandria is now back in that port, presumably
after.. having transferred the civilians to. anothe):
ship may be there to evacuate: bore .Soviet
na-
tioncils, Nine small. Soviet naval auxiliary ships
.
and yard craft are also in Alexandria,. These ships,
a minesweeper near Latakia, 'and a naval research
ship. in Solium, Egypt, are the only 'other Soviet
surface units of any kind known to be in or near any
port In the east Mediterranean.
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S.. At least four Soviet diesel submarines have
left the Mediterranean en route to their base in the
Soviet Northern Fleet, and four or five more are e).;-
pected to depart soon These units.wore relieved
by a task force of nine to ten submarine's in early
October. Then: the relieving operation is.complete,
the Soviet submarine force in the Mediterranean will"
total about nine diesel-powered attack submarines, one.-
diesel-powered cruise-missile submarine, and one nu-
clear-powered submarine of an undetermined type..
6. .Four of the diesel Submarines were sighted
0w9 October in the central Mediterranean,Jleading
east. At least one of these submarines is apparently
DOW in the eastern Mediterranean, and anti-submarine
warfare helicOpters from the USS independence reported
a submarine contact near the soviet: flagship this
.afternoon. The whereabouts of the other Soviet sub-
marines is is unknown..
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