MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 81 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-6-9-2
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: October 25, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
, 25 October 1973
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
MIDDLE EAST .
Situation Report Number 81
(As of 2230 EDT)
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State Department review(s) completed.
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
(All.times cited in military paragraphs are
Cairo/Tel Aviv time, unless otherwise specified.)
1. Both fronts continued to be 'relatively
quiet through the evening of 25 October. The Egyp-
tians claim to have beaten off a small attack on
Suez' during the day, but otherwise only scattered
firings have been reported. Air activity has been
restricted to defensive patrols and reconnaissance
flights. The Egyptian 3rd Army continues to be
cut off on the east bank, but there are no indica-
tions of its surrender being imminent.
STATUS OF SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN FORCES
2. No change has been reported in the status
of Soviet and East European forces since the pre-
vious Sitrep.
OSD review completed
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SOVIET NAVAL ACTIVITY
3. The status of Soviet naval forces in the
Mediterranean has not changed substantially since
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this afternoon. The Soviet combatants that left
. Crete this morning have remained about 100 nautical
miles north of Matruh. The group now includes six
ships--a missile frigate, three destroyers, and two
amphibious ships. A Kotlin-class destroyer has not
moved from the position it reached earlier this
afternoon, about 80 nm north of Port Said, A Kashin-
class destroyer has left the Kithira anchorage and
is moving to intercept the carrier USS Roosevelt,
which is scheduled to join the carrier Independence
tomorrow morning.
SOVIET AIRLIFT'
SOVIET MERCHANT SHIPPING
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5. The Soviet merchant ship Mezhdurohensk ar-
rived in Alexandria on 25 October. Possible affirma-
tive indications of nuClear weapons have been asso-
ciated with this ship, which entered the Mediterranean
from the Bosporus on 22 October.
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? THE SOVIETS AND THE SECRETARY'S PRESS CONFERENCE
6. The initial TASS report Off Secretary Kis-
singer's press conference today is extremely posi-
tive, and gives no hint of US concern about Soviet
intentions. TASS stresses instead the Secretary's
remarks regarding joint Soviet-US actions to resolve
the crisis, and quotes the Secretary regarding the
"most promising" possibilities for establishing peace
in the Middle East, and US willingness to work with
the USSR toward this end
7. TASS reports that the US opposed sending
US and Soviet peace-keeping forces to the Middle
East, but points out that the US supports the idea
of a UN force that does not include the permanent
members of the Security Council, and is willing to
render it every assistance. TASS also reports the
Secretary's remarks regarding US willingness to act
in the spirit of the agreements recently concluded
in Moscow.
SOVIET POLICY
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UNITED NATIONS
9. Secretary-General Waldheim announced,this
evening that he is transferring the more than 900
men of the Austrian, Swedish, and Finnish contingents
of the UN force on Cyprus to the Middle East as an
"interim measure." He also named Finnish Major Gen-
eral Siilasvuo, the current chief of staff of UNTSO,
as acting commander of the new UN emergency force
(UF). The present ceiling of UNTSO forces in the
Middle East is 221.
10. The Secretary-General's action should ease
Soviet concerns about the viability of the cease-
fire and further reduce the threat of any unilateral
Soviet action. The Communists, however, clearly ex-
pect to play a more active role in UN peace-keeping
activities than they have heretofore. During the
Security Council debate this afternoon, Soviet 'Am-
bassador Malik noted that many of the countries par-
ticipating in UNTSO belong to NATO and suggested that
the new force include troops from Communist and non-
aligned countries.
ISRAEL :
11. Prime Minister Meir reportedly told a jour-
nalist, who asked her to comment on reports about ?
Justice Minister Shapiro's call for the resignation
of Defense Minister Dayan, that Dayan told her sev-
eral days ago he would resign if he did not have her
full confidence: she had assured him that he had it.
She told the reporter that post-mortems on the be-
ginning and the conduct of the war would be discussed
by the cabinet at a more suitable time in the future.
12. The US Embassy in Tel Aviv comments that
in view of the present crisis and the 'approaching
parliamentary elections, Mrs. Meir had little choice
but to express full confidence in Dayan or risk
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raising serious questions about the government's
Overall leadership. The embassy adds that Shapiro
has drifted away from his previously close relation-
ship with Mr's. Meir and has talked of leaving the
government after the next elections, now rescheduled
for 31 December.
ISRAELI APPRAISAL OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS
13. A senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official
said today that there is a major struggle going on
within the Syrian Government over whether to continue
the war. The official believes that Iraqi forces in
Syria are demanding that Damascus fight on, and are
waiting for the right moment to intervene in the in-
ternal Syrian struggle. Other sources have reported
Syrian nervousness about the presence of the Iraqi
troops.
14. The US Embassy in Tel Aviv comments that
the Israeli Government is being very cautious in its
attitude toward Syria's acceptance of the cease-fire.
The embassy thinks the Israelis may avoid officially
acknowledging Syrian acceptance until the internal
sitRation in Syria clarifies. Meanwhile, Israel's
policy will be: "If they don't shoot, we don't
shoot."
riso
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WEST GRMANY
16. US Ambassador Hillenbrand found the West
German position firm when he asked Foreign Office
Secretary Prank today to reconsider its decision
banning the resupply of Israel from West. German ter-
ritory. In a sensitive State Department cable, he
suggests that only a high-level political demarche
will move the Germans.
EGYPT '
17. The US Interests Section in Cairo reports
today that Egyptians have reacted with confusion
and doubt to revelations that the Israelis had seized
portions of the west bank Of the canal and to news
of the second cease-fire. They are asking such ques-
tions as "why should a cease-fire be imposed now,
when the government has been expressing such con-
fidence?" Egyptian media have been playing down
the Israeli presence on the west bank, although
stories have begun to circulate about summary courts-
martial of high-ranking Egyptian officers. While
press criticism of US support for Israel has not
increased, the Soviets are now being blamed for not
delivering on what many Egyptians believe was a firm
Soviet commitment to support Egypt's political goals.
The Pakistani representative in Cairo, in an inter-
cepted.message, reports much the same thing and ob-
serves that the mood of the Egyptian public has
become progressively somber and pessimistic as news
of the major Israeli gains on the west bank of the
Suez Canal slowly become known.
LEBANON/FEDAYEEN
? 18. The Government of Lebanon today informed
the US Embassy in Beirut that Lebanon has elicited
promises from several fedayeen organizations to limit
their cross-border raids and shelling of Israeli set-
tlements. A Foreign Ministry official said that
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Prime Minister Sulh had once again spoken "firmly
and frankly" with fedayeen leaders, and that Fatah,
Saiqa, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine General Command had agreed to stop their
border activities on two'cOnditions: that Israel ..
observe the cease-fire, and that Israel publicly
recognize Palestinian rights and their cause. Beirut
is requesting similar commitments from the Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Popu-
lar Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Should they refuse to cooperate, the government pro-
fesses to be ready to take the necesbary measures
to ensure their compliance.
NIGERIA/ISRAEL
19. Nigeria today broke of diplomatic rela-
tions with Israel. This brings to ten the number of
African states to sever relations since the current
round of hostilities began on 6 October.
IRAN.
20. The US Embassy in Tehran has confirmed
widespread rumors that Deputy Foreign Minister Mir-
fendereski was dismissed as a result of a disagree-
ment with the Shah. Mirfendereski reportedly in-
curred the Shah's wrath by taking it upon himself to
sanction a new wave of overflights of Iran by Soviet
planes.while acting as foreign minister. Early in
the war, the Shah granted the Soviet Embassy permis-
sion for a one-time overflight of six civilian trans-
ports. Before his appointment as deputy foreign
minister, Mirfendereski served six years as ambassa-
dor to Moscow, which may help explain his susceptibil-
ity to the Soviet request.
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