ANALYSIS OF ARAB-ISRAELI DEVELOPMENTS SITREP NO. 18, 0100 ACAPULCO TIME, DECEMBER 28, 1976

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-545-5-16-4
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: December 28, 1976
• Content Type: CABLE

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INR/RNA: H R SINDLAR:M 6 BANNERMAN:BAL
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TAGS: L3tE
SUBJECT: ANALYSIS OF ARAB-ISRAELI DEVELOPMENTS
SITREP NO. 181 0100 ACAPULCO TIME, DECEMBER 281 1976
TOP SECRET UMBRA/HANDLE VIA COMINT CHANNELS ONLY
GAMMA CONTROLLED ITEM.
Ltl. THE PLO SEEMS TO BE WORKING TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH
EGYPT, JORDAN, AND SYRIA. ?ATTENTION IS BEING PAID TO THE
LATTER TWO STATES BECAUSE RELATIONS WITH THEM HAVE BEEN
PARTICULARLY STRAINED. YOU WILL RECALL THAT PLO POLITICAL
CHIEF QADDUMI EMPHASIZED IN A RECENT INTERVIEW THAT THE
PALESTINIANS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY BROADENING THEIR POLITICAL
'LEADERSHIP AND CHANGING POLICY POSITIONS IN ORDER TO COME
MORE INTO LINE WITH THE APMTHER ARABS.
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2*3. SYRIA UNDOUBTEDLY HAS THE GREATEST INFLUENCE WITHIN
. PLO COUNCILS AS A RESULT OF ITS FIRM IMPOSITION OF CONTROt
OVER THE PALESTINIANS IN LEBANON'S .CIVIL WAR.
ARAFAT RELIZES
ARAFAT REALIZES THAT THE PLO
.MUST BEND SOMEWHAT TO THE SYRIANS TO AVOID FURTHER PLO
smucKs AND TO DAMPEN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE ASAD'S ATTEMPT'
TOOBTAIN.:A MORE MODERATE AND SYRIAN-ORIENTED PLO LEADER
SHIP.. SUCH A REALIZATION ON ARAFAT'S
PART WOULD BE IN LINE WITH HIS WIDELY REPORTED RECONCILIA-
TION WITH ASAD AT THE PCC MEETING!
ALTHOUGH THE PLO DU NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN ITS POLICY POSITIONS AT THE MID-DECEMBER PCC MEETING,.
THE PLO AAPPI:MAPPARENTLY DI)) ENUNICATE. SEVERAL VIEWS WHICH
SEEM TO BE COMPATIBLE WITH THE ARAB "PEACE OFFENSIVE"
AND WITH THE EGYPTIAN AND SYRIAN EFFORTS TO COORDINATE A
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S. AMBASSADOR MURPHY REPORTED-THAT THE YUG0SLAV
:AMBASSADOR TOLD HIM THAT THE PCC HAD FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ON THE NEED TO SOLIDIFY THE PLO's RANKS; AS PART OF THIS ?
EFFORT, THE PCC HAD UNANIMOUSLY_AGREED TO EXPAND THE PNC'S
OEMER-SOIP-40 INCLUDE REPRESENTATION
. .
MEMBERSHIP TO INCLUDE REPRESENTATIVES FROM JORDAN AND :THE
"OCCUPIED TERRIotTORIES." THE NUMBER OF ADDTnTIONAL
MEMBERS, HOWEVER, REMAINED UNRESOLVED. .
6. IN ISRAEL, BOTH RABIN,S LABOR PARTY. AND THE oPPOSTTIoN
LIKUD HAVE ISSUED SIMULTANEOUS ANNOUNCEMENTS AGREEING ON
.A COMPROMISE DATE OF MAY 17 FOR NEW KNESSET ELECTIONS,' ?
ACCORDING TO REUTER. ? ,
7. MEANWHILE, PRESIDENT KATZIR MET WITH LEADERS Of LIKUD
AND OF THE TWO RELIGIOUS PARTIES ON DECEMBER 16t2.6 AS
PART OF HIS CONSULTATIONS--A LEGAL FORMALITY--OW THE
POSSIBILITY OF FORMING A GINEW GoVERNMENT: 'AP REPORTED
THAT LIKUD LEADER BEGIN.ASKED KATZIR YESTERDAY TO.ALLOW
+11*-PAWil-Te-FoRM A CARETAKER GOVERNMENT TO SERVE UNTIL .TEt
HIS PARTY .10 FORM A CARETAKER GOVERNMENT TO SERVER t UNTIL.
THE ELECTIONS. BEGIN REPORTEDLY CLAIMED- THAT HE COULD' ?
MUSTER MAJORITY SUPPORT IN THE KNESSET, BUT KATZIR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO APPOINT RABIN TO HEAD 4 CARETAKER GOVERNMENT.
11. Iii:S447D-R4JT-i-ENC-R*L?SECRETARY MESHEL TOLD AMBASSADOR
fOON7.-0..E.EEPFRE*-2-HAT.ISRAELARAB NEGOTIATIONS AND .
AGAIN BE THE: MOST IMPRAORTANT
8. gISTAD,RUT GENERAL S.ECRETARY-PIEtHff, TOLD AMBASSADOR
TOON, DECEMBER 271 THAT ISRAEL-ARAB NEGOTIATIONS AND
FOREIGN POLICY WILL AGAIN BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION
ISSUE. IN mESHEL'S viEm, RABIN Is PREPARED TO NEGOTIATE -
THE FUTURE'OF -THC "WEST BANK AND GAZA AND TO MAKE sIGNIFI-
CANT TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS BUT NOT A RETURN TO PRE-
L967 BORDERS. .MMEL BELIEVES THAT A RABIN VICTORY IN THE
ELECTION WOULD CONSTITUTE A POPULAR MOtANDATE IN FAVOR OF
A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT..
9. RABIN FIRED WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EARLY SALVO. IN HIS
EFFIIORT TO MAKE FOREIGN POLICY THE PRINCIPAL ELECTION
ISSUE YESTERDAY IN A TIME ..INTERVIEW. HE STATED THAT
ISRAEL'S EFFORTS TOWARD .k MIDDLE EAST PEACE "MILL NOT
STOP"!DURING THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN.. HE SAID THAT
"MINISTERS COME AND GO, BUT ISRAEL WON'T LEAVE THE FLOOR.
TO
TO. THE ARABS."
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10. FAHMY STATED IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MONTE CARLO ?RADIO,
DECEMBER 26, THAT HE DOUBTED WHETHER A RABIN VICTORY IN
THE ELECTION AND THE CONCLUSION OF THE ELECTION AT AN
EARLY DATE WOULD STRENGTHEN RABIN IN MOVING TOWARD A
PEACEFUL SOLUTION. THE EGYPTIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ALSO
OBSERVED THAT, PARTICULARLY AS A RESULT OF THE ARAB PEACE
.0C-F-C-IVE-1.--TrHE DOMESTIC BATTEL IN
OFFENSIVE, THE DOMESTIC BATTLE IN ISRAEL WAS INTENSE. HE
CHARACTERIZED ISRAELI POLICY AS MARKED BY FUMBLING,
HESITATION, AND CONTRADICTION.
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11.
LEBANON:
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--HEAVY WEAPONS: REUTER QUOTED A PALESTINIAN SPOKESMAN
AS SAYING THAT THE PALESTINIANS ARE WITHDRAUING
THEIR HEAVY WEAPONS FROM LEBANON'S CITIES, BUT
,WOULD RETAIN THEIR HEAVY ARMS IN AREAS BORDERING
ON ISRAEL TO DEFEND THEMSELVES AGAINST ISRAELI
ATTACKS. SOME PALESTINIANS ARMS REPORTEDLY HAVE
BEEN PULLED OUT OF TRIPOLI. HOWEVER, EMBASSY
BEIRUT NOTED THAT PRESS ACCOUNTS CONFLICT AS TO
WHETHER AN AGREEMENT WAS REACHED ON THE HEAVY
WEAPONS ISSUE AT THE DECEMBER 24 MEETING OF THE,
, QUADRIPARTITE SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE. THE COMMITTEE
DID NOT ISSUE A. STATEMENT, AND REPORTEDLY WILL NOT MEET
AGAIN UNTIL AFTER NEW YEAR'S.
--KHADDAM-HEAVY WEAPONS: KHADDAM COMMENTED TO AMBASSADOR
MURPHY THAT SYRIA WAS NOT PLEASED WITH THE CONTINUED
DELAYS WHICH HAVE ARISEN OVER THE COLLECTION OF HEAVY
WEAPONS. THE SYRIANS BELIEVE THAT SARKIS IS NOT
BEING ACTIVE ENOUGH IN THIS REGARD. IN A PROBABLE " ?
INDICATION OF SYRATIAN DISPLEASURE, THE SYRIAN
REPRESENTATIVE WAS NOTABLY ABSENT FROM THE
DECEMBER 24 MEETING OF THE SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE.
--SOUTH LEBANON: EMBASSY BEIRUT REPORTED THAT A LEBANESE
MILITARY SOURCE HAD SAID NABATIYAH WAS SHELLED BY
CHRISTIAN ARTILLERY ON DECEMBER 24-25 AFTER PALESTINIAN/
LEFTISTS INITIATED ARTILLERY FIRE ON CHRISTIAN
POSITIOIS NEAR MARJAYOUN. AS WELL, AN ISRAELI MILITARY
SPOKESMAN ACCUSED THE PALESTINATXANS OF FIRING TWO
KATYUSHA ROCKETS INTO ISRAEL OVER THE WEEKEND.
--LEBANESE ARMY: ACCORDING TO OUR BEIRUT DEFENSE ?
ATTACHE, THE PRESENT COMMANDER OF THE LEBANESE ARMY,
GENERAL SAID, WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY AN AS
YET UNDETERMINED OFFICER. AT PRESENT, LEBANON'S
? ARMY IS FRACTURED INTO FOUR GROUPS: CHRISTIANS,
THE LAA, THE SYRIAN-SPONSORED "VANGUARDS," AND NEUTRALS.
? EVEN TOP LEBANESE OFFICERS REPORTEDLY ARE UNCLEAR
AS TO THE ARMY'S PRESENT SIZE AND MAKE UP.
? --AL-HUSS-LIBYA: BEIRUT RADIO REPORTED THAT PRIME
MINISTER AL-HUSS WOULD GO TO LIBYA TO DISCUSS
FINANCIAL AID TO LEBANON WITH QADHAFI.
--BUTROS-SOVIETS: DEFENSE MINISTER BUTROS CONFERRED
YESTERDAY WITH THE SOVIET AMBASSADOR IN BEIRUT.
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12.
? ARAB-ISRAELI.:
--RABIN-PERES: EMBASSY TEL AVIV COMMENTED THAT THE
' RABINrRERES RIVALRY FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF THE LABOR
PARTY IS THE MAIN TOPIC OF POLITICAL CONVERSATION
..AND PRESS SPECULATION IN'ISRAEL. DESPITE PERKS'
SILENCE ON THE MATTER:, POLITICAL COMMENTATORS HAVE
TAKEN FOR GRANTED HIS INTENTION TO CHALLENGE
RABIN,: IN THE EMBASSr.SVIEW1 EBAN'S DECLARED
AVAILABILITY FOR PRIE%ME MINISTER HAS NOT AFFECTED:
HE cl)$$.Ensus THAT THE CONTEST IS BETWEEN RABIN.
AND PERKS. THE BELIEF NOW IS THAT LABOR'S DECISION
sON A PARTY HEAD WILL NOW BE MADE BY THE PARTY'S
? 'EXISTING EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE, OR.LESS LIKELY, AT.
LABOR'S PARTY CONVENTIONI,RATHERIHAT.AFTER THE
CONVENTION AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER.
--EGYPT I THE EGYPTIAN DAILY AL-:AHRAM REPORTED YESTERDAY
THAT SADAT HAS ?REQUESTED THAT THE US AND THE SOVIET
UNION SUBMIT WRITTEN STATEMENTS OUTLINING THEIR
PLANS FOR 'ACHIEVING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
' THE ISSUES THAT THE EGYPTIANS WISH TO BE INFORMED
ON ARt:
--ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM 7OCCUPIED TERRITORY";
--INTERNATIONAL AND BILATERAL GUARANTEES11.
!-'DEMILITARIZED ?ZONES; AND
--THE STATUS OF JERUSALEM.
--SADAT-JEWISH LEADERS: ACCORDING TO REUTER, THE
PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD JEWISH CONGRESS,' DR. NAF-IUM
GOLDMAN, SAID YESTERDAY THAT THERE IS A "GOOD CHANCE"
SADAT WOULD MEET WITH A GROUP OF JEWISH LEADERS ON
A DATE TO,BE SET AtLATER. GOLDMAN DID NOT SAY WHAT
25:0 NATIONALITIES THE JEWISH DELEGATION WOULD BE, BUT
INDICATED THEY WOULD NOT BE ISRAELI. ?
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14.
INTERNAT1064.:
L-KHADDAM VIEWS: rw A CONVERSATION WITH AMBASSADOR
MURPHY, KHADDAM MADE THE FOLLOWING POINTS ON
SYRIAN-EGYPTIAN UNITY AND THE MIDEAST PEACE PROCESS:
--THE COMMITTEES TO STUDY SYRIAN-EGYPTIAN
UNITY WILL BE ESTABLISHED WITHIN A FEW
WEEKS., AND HE BELIEVES THEY WILL
COMPLETE THEIR WORK IN 6 MONTHS;
--THE DEGREE OF UNITY WILL BE SOMETHING
LESS THAN THAT ENVISIONED BETWEEN SYRIA
AND JORDAN, BUT FAR MORE THAN THAT OF
THE CONFEDERATION OF ARAB REPUBLICS;
--HE BELIEVES THE GENEVA CONFERENCE CANNOT
? CONVENE BEFORE ISRAEL'S ELECTIONS AND
THE FORMATION OF. A NEW ISRAELI GOVERNMENT;
--KHADDAM DISASSOCIATED HIMSELF ,FROM PRESS
SPECULATION THAT THE ISRAELI CABINET CRISIS
, WAS A MANEUVER TO BLOCK THE ARAB
? PEACE INITIATIVE, AND INTERPRETED IT AS
CAUSED PURELY BY DOMESTIC ISRAELI POLITICS.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-16-4