CIA OIL FIGURES RAISE EYEBROWS AMONG EXPERTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81M00980R001200070010-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: April 23, 1978
• Content Type: NSPR

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Approved For Release 2004/07/08: CIA-RDP811'1'f00980
WASHINGTON POS
CIA Oil Figures
Raise Eyebrows
Among Experts
By Richard Harwood
and J. P. Smith
Washington Post St atrf Writers
This is a story about the Central In-
telligence Agency and the domestic.
energy policies of the American gov-
ernment.
It begins, in a public sense, last
April, when President Carter revealed
in a television appearance that he had
received "'disturbing" new findings
about world energy supplies.
There is less oil and gas available in
the world, lie said. than the govern-
ment had previously believed. It was
therefore imperative that an energy
bill be passed to cut clown the waste
of ener,gy."
His fears were underscored eight
months later, on Christmas Day, when
The New York Times reported hat
Saudi Arabia, with its oceans of oil,
may have far less productive capacity
than. previously believed. This infor-
mation, said the Times, came from
"leading energy experts."
It was, In fact, the CIA which had
raised the alarm about the Sa:!ells,
and it was the CIA that had provided
Carter with the ammunition for his
Warning.
Carter acknowledged his debt to the
C[A during his television appearance.
In so doing, he also acknowledged the
dependence of the White House and
of Congress on the CIA In the formu-
lation of domestic energy policies.
For good or ill, the CIA is the gov-
ernment', most important single
source of iinternational. energy infor-
mation, including estimates of how
much is out t sere and how much is
available to the United States.
This may seem both unfortunate
and sinister to the agency's critics. It
is an inevitable and sensible role for
the agency in the minds of others, in-
cluding the respected international
energy expert at the Library of Con-
gress, Herman Franssen.
"The CIA," he says, "probably has
the best act in town. Nobody else can
( IA, From Al
is to he expected. "given that the CIA
has been at work for years on the
question of estimating... the trend,
in foreign capacity and foreign inten-
tions with regard to p oduction."
"What falls outside of the trad--
tional compass of the intelligence
community is that this has gone pub-
lic," Schlesinger says.
There is another question about the
CIA and energy policy, however. It is
directed at the agency's capabilities
and the quality of its work.
Specifically, there is widespread
doubt in the energy community about
the validity of the CIA report cited by
the president, last April and about the
CIA report cited by the Times in De-
cember.
The heart of the April report was a
CIA prediction that the Soviet Union
would be importing up to 3.5 million
barrels of oil per day by the mid-
1980s. Previously, the assumption had
been that the Soviets would continue
to be sel:-sufficient in meeting their
oil and gas needs.
The CIA's revisionist analysis i:~
now under serious challenge by Wes,
European intelligence agencies. by th