SPECIAL ASSESSMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST SITUATION
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CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0
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T
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Document Creation Date:
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Publication Date:
June 8, 1967
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'`'', `"e Top Secret
MEMORANDUM
Special Assessments on the Middle East Situation
State Dept. review
completed
DIA review(s)
completed.
VYINIPIA(f
JOB
Top Secret
17
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I. ISRA:L OBJECTIVES FOLLOWING CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES
1. With a total victcry in sight, and complete
command of the situation in both the political and mili-
tary fields, Israel will exert every possible effort
for a final settlement of all territorial, political
and diplomatic problems which have rankled and harassed
the state and people of Israel since its formation. Is-
rael wants a final peace settlement and acceptance of
Israel as a Near East state recognized by the belliger-
ents at a formal peace parley. This is unlikely to ma-
terialize. Short of such a settlement, Israel's objec-
tives may be divided into ultimate demands and those on
which Israel would be willing to compromise for concrete
political gains or long-term pacification of the area.
2. Ultimate Demands
a. Permanent access to the Old City of Jeru-
salem; General Dayan has been reported as saying that Is-
rael will not give up the Old City. From a historical,
religious, and security point of view, the Old City is
probably the most important territory on the periphery
of Israel. The Israelis will try to keep it and world
Jewry will strongly support their efforts to do so. The
only foreseeable compromise might be Israel's accept-
ance of its internationalization.
b. Control of Sharm ash-Shaykh to guarantee
permanent free access to the Gulf of Aqaba.
c. Annexation of a considerable strip of ter-
ritory in the Nablus Region. (This fertile Jordanian
bulge reduces Israel to a narrow, ten-mile-wide corridor
between the,north and south.)
d. Removal of the Gaza Strip from Egyptian
control, possibly by annexation. (This is an area which,
as long as it is under Egyptian control, is a serious
threat to the security of southwest Israel. However,
it would be a distinct economic liability.)
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Khan Yunis
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Port Said
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Migdal Ashqelon.
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STRIP
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S I N A I
U N I T E D ARAB
f :ebb JORDAN
Beersheba A1Karak
SAUDI
ARABIA
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e. Control over a small area between the
Yarmuk River and the southeast shores of the Lake of
Galilee.
3. Objectives Subject to Revision, Negotiation,
or Compromise
a. Claims to and retention of all Jordanian
territory west of the Jordan River until Israel's ma-
jor demands have been satisfied.
b. Retention of the Sinai Peninsula for po-
litical bargaining purposes.
d. Deportation of most of the population of
the Gaza Strip on the ground that the majority of them
are not refugees. (There is considerable significance
in the fact that the Israelis captured all of the UNWRA
rolls in Gaza.)
4. As an extreme measure, if the Israelis seriously
intend to retain the West Bank of the Jordan, they may
force all of the Palestinian refugees to move across the
river to the East Bank. Neutralization or perhaps an-
nexation of a narrow strip of Syrian highland overlook-
ing the upper Jordan valley between the Lake of Galilee
and the present northern Israeli-Syrian border, to in-
clude the headwaters of the Jordan which rise in Syria.
(Israeli demands will depend on outcome of hostilities
with Syria.)
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1. Any assessment of Nasir's intentions, or
even his present status in the UAR must be tentative.
The UAR has suffered a staggering military defeat
and Nasir's position must be accordingly weakened.
Most of his air force has been destroyed, and he has
apparently lost much of his armor, We do not yet
know how many of the 50-80,000 well-equipped Egyp-
tian troops in the Sinai Peninsula were killed,
captured, or managed to escape, but the UAR's losses
were certainly very heavy. News of these disasters
is only beginning to seep through to his people,
causing some shock and despair.
resentment against Nasir
current efforts of the Egyptian press and radio to
exalt Nasir as the indispensible hero and leader
appear to confirm his weakened position.
is beginning to be voiced in some quarters. The
2. There are important factors, however,
working for Nasir. The claim that Israel's victory
was made possible only by the massive intervention
of US and UK air forces appears to be generally
accepted throughout the UAR. Nasir himself appears
to have believed it in the beginning, though the
refutation of this claim by the Soviets has prob-
ably undercut this conviction among the Egyptian
leadership. Yet Nasir is likely to continue suc-
cessfully to exploit the myth that he is a martyr
and victim of imperialism. Further, in the UAR
there is no obvious alternative to Nasir? The army
remains the only significant power in Egypt, and
Nasir is probably still its unquestioned leader.
Hence, we believe that, except in the unlikely
event of a major Israeli thrust threatening Cairo,
Nasir will remain in power.
3. In time, disillusion with his abysmal
failure may produce moves against him from the
army or other quarters, but probably not while
Egypt is in its present state of shambles and
psychological bankruptcy. Our guess is that no
one will want to pick up the pieces just yet.
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4. Nasir's present standing in the Arab world
is less clear. As long as fighting with Israel
continues, no Arab leader will publicly express any-
thing but support for the UAR. The Syrians, however,
have shied away from following Nasir's lead in
joining in large-scale hostilities with Israel and
they are clearly not responsive to Nasir's control.
The conservative Arab states which have had good
relations with the West are somewhat disillusioned
with Nasir. This is reflected in the failure of
Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Kuwait, among
others, to break relations with the US.
5. Nasir views the US now as actively seeking
to destroy him. He will attempt to exert pressures--
particularly on military bases and oil interests
throughout the Arab world--to get the US to adopt a
stance less partial to the Israelis. As for the
USSR, he clearly was disappointed at its refusal to
extend him unqualified political support. Moscow's
agreement to a UN cease-fire resolution that did not
stipulate Israeli withdrac,7F_a to positions held before
the war was particularly galling. Nasir is most
unlikely, however, to endanger his generally close
relations with the Soviet Union. He remains com-
pletely dependent on it for military equipment, and
for considerable economic assistance both of which
he now urgently needs. Nor have the Soviets abandoned
6. Nasir is obviously trying to minimize his
political losses.
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Nasir prob-
ably realizes that the canal will have to be re-
opened, that oil production will inevitably be re-
sumed, and his chief concern is to play a prominent
role in effecting these decisions and making sure
they are done in a manner most favorable to him. In
short, he is trying to continue his role as political
leader wherever feasible.
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III. SOVIET ATTITUDES AND INTENTIONS
IN' THE MIDDLE EAST
1. An Office of National Estimates memorandum
on this topic is being issued today.
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Top Secret *mw -VO
Top Secret
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
9 June 1967
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Arab-Israeli Situation Report
(As of 0800 AM EDT
2. In Egypt, a clash along the Suez Canal, probably
involving one of the retreating Egyptian units attempting
to cross the canal, temporarily interrupted the cease-fire.
An Egyptian communique broadcast over Cairo radio at 7:29
AM EDT said calm now prevails. In its earlier announcement
of the new outbreak of fighting, Cairo claimed that the
Israelis were attacking Egyptian forces "west" of the canal.
There has been no other indication that the Israelis crossed
the waterway.
3. The US Embassy in Beirut says it is "battening
down the hatches" in the face of rising anti-US feeling
among Lebanon's Muslims. The Grand Mufti has called on
all his followers to fight the US and UK "in every way."
The local security forces believe they can control the
situation, however.
4. Both Prime Minister Karame of Lebanon and President
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Bourguiba of Tunisia have weighed in with ominous predictions
of the harmful effect the crisis will have on US interests
and prestige. Both also recommended to our Ambassadors that
the US try to see that the Arabs are not too humiliated in the
settlement ending the affair.
6. Abba Eban told the press last night at Kennedy
Airport that peace terms must be hammered out "in direct
negotiations between Israel and the Arab states." This isn't
as simple as it sounds. Mere recognition of Israel, even
tacitly through direct negotiations, would be an extremely
bitter pill for the Arabs to swallow, and they can be expected
to stall and hedge as long as is possible before capitulating
to that extent. In 1949, the Palestine War ended with a series
of armistice agreements, but the Arabs successfully avoided
peace negotiations and a treaty. Thus, for the Israelis,
the specific terms of any settlement are of secondary
importance to getting the Arabs, especially Nasir, to the
conference table.
7. Nasir's speech today will be on Egyptian radio
and television starting at 12:30 PM EDT.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
9 June 1967
Arab-Israeli Situation Report
A of :00 M E ) -
1. There is no further information on the military
situation along the Syrian/Israeli front. Israel and
Syria have accused each other of violating the UN cease
fire. Israel claims that the Syrian army "launched a
full scale attack along the entire front." The settle-
ments of Tel Qatsir and Haon were being shelled according
to Jerusalem radio at 0743. A US official in Tel Aviv
commented yesterday that the atmosphere in Tel Aviv
indicated that 9 June would be "Syrian day" and that
attaches were informed not to travel in the north of
the country during that day- [
2. The cease fire remains intact in Sinai,
despite a brief skirmish in that area early this
morning. According to an Israeli military spokesman,
and Egyptian task force trapped in the Sinai desert
attempted "to break their encirclement and were re-
pulsed."
An Egyptian communique said
that 13 Israeli tanks and 3 planes had been destroyed
during the battle.
3. Press reports indicate considerable bitterness
in Cairo over -the failure of the Soviet Union, "which
had talked so stronz1v of Arab support" to come to the
aid of the Arabs.
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Nasir's prestige reportedly has sli
considerably in Lebanon.
5. A mob of Arab students protesting alleged
US and British aid to Israel marched on the US and
British embassies in Moscow, but were turned back by
"the heaviest defenses ever thrown around a foreign
mission in Moscow." A force of an estimated 5,000
Soviet troops and police guarded the US embassy. The
Syrian ambassador was apparently afraid to try to
persuade the students not to demonstrate as requested
by the Soviets.
6. Radio Amman is appealing to the Jordanians
on the West Bank to ':'Stay where you are and do not
allow the enemy to create a new refugee tragedy."
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8. The Israeli military attache in London yes-
terday told an American official that his government
had successfully neutralized Lebanon during the present
crisis by passing the word to the Lebanese military
that they would be held "accountable" for any actions
against Israel. This would include reprisals against
the Jewish community in Lebanon.
10. Peking has seized upon the Soviet role in the
Middle East crisis to accuse Moscow of betraying the
Arab states. In a People's Daily commentary today, the
Chinese charged the Sovie'a w h "stabbing the Arabs
in the back." The article asserted that the Soviets
were "colluding with the US in arranging for a UN reso-
lution aimed at forcing the Arabs to put up with "armed
aggression" by the US and Israel. The Chinese are also
continuing to stage massive demonstrations in Peking
denouncing the US and Britain, but have refrained from
pledges of material assistance.
11. At the UN, reactions are mixed to the US
draft resolution tabled yesterday which calls for
talks on all the outstanding issues in the Middle
Eastern crisis after the ceasefire has been effected.
Many delegations feel the proposal is untimely and
doubt that the Council should focus its attention on
long range problems at this time. The Arabs say that
the US draft does not set guidelines for the negotia-
tions and fails to mention preservation of the terri-
torial integrity of all the states. Another question
in many delegates minds is whether the Council President
should be given a long range role in view of the ro-
tation of office every month. However, Hans Tabor, the
President this month, says the presidential office would
be quite useful since the Secretary General is sometimes
too restrained and cautious, and prevented by conflict-
ing views of the members from playing an active role.
Despite some overlapping between US and Canadian reso-
lutions, Ottawa still intends to go ahead with its
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resolution which calls for the Council president
with the assistance of the Secretary General to see
that a ceasefire is implemented.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
9 June 1967
Arab-Israeli Situation Report
(As of 2:00 7PM EDT)
1. It is not clear at this point whether Nasir's
decision to "give up completely and finally every of-
ficial post and every political role and to return to
the ranks of the public" should be taken at face value
or whether it is a maneuver, aimed at obtaining a
fresh mandate in the crisis and thereby strengthening
his hand. In his speech, he said this was a decision
in which "I want you all to help," and that the "im-
perialist forces imagine that Nasir is their enemy"
but that "I want it to be clear to them that it is
the whole Arab nation, not just Abd al-Nasir." This
has a ring of sincerity, but it does not preclude a
return to office by popular demand.
2. The replacement Nasir has named, Vice Presi-
dent Zacharia Muhieddin, is a personally mild man who
served as prime minister during a "swing toward the
West" period i 965-66 He had wood personal relations
with Americans
He is no e
trusted member of Nasir's old Revolutionary Command
Council and a dedicated Arab nationalist as well as
an Egyptian patriot. His personal modesty and lack
of ambition would suggest that he would not hesitate
to step down if Nasir should decide to reassume the
top leadership.
3. The Jordanian Foreign Minister has appealed
to the ambassadors in Amman of the Four Big Powers to
use their influence with the Israelis "to let the West
Bank population stay where it is." The embassy comments
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ftNOW
that the government obviously fears that refugees will
only :aggravate an already precarious internal situation
on the East Bank.
4. the
embassy was under attack as of 1340 EDT. Marine guards
have given personnel 20 minutes to evacuate the building.
5. The American Consulate in Dhahran, Saudi
Arabia has reported on the general security situation
along the Persian Gulf. Bahrain is quiet although non-
violent demonstrations have taken place. Anti-Western
demonstrations and some rioting have also occurred in
the Trucial states of Dubai, Doha and Qatar, but oil
shipments are still being made from both Qatar and
Abu Dhabi
6. Rioting Algerians attacked the Egyptian
Embassy in Algiers today in what is apparently the
first anti-Egyptian demonstration which has taken place
in an Arab country. The action was in protest against
Cairo's acceptance of the UN ceasefire yesterday.
Police dispersed the rioters and have placed a heavy
guard around the embassy building.
7. U Thant reported that Israeli planes have
raided Damascus and that 200 Israeli planes were
active this morning north of the Sea of Galilee.
Thant referred to UNTSO messages which reported that
the "bombing, napalming and strafing" of Syrian terri-
tory was in progress and that "heavy explosions were
heard north of the inland sea." Radio Jerusalem in
Israel called on the Syrian population to raise white
flags over their homes, "keep away from Syrian soldiers
and vehicles," and to overthrow the leftwing socialist
Baath ruling party in Damascus. Describing an Israeli
attack which the Syrians claim extends the entire
length of the armistice line, Radio Damascus issued
communique after communique claiming "heavy human and
material losses," by the invading Israeli army and
exhorted the Syrians to fight on.
18. Cairo Radio at 1:58 PM EDT announced the
resignation of Egyptian First Vice President and
Deputy Supreme Commander Abd al-Hakim.Amir.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
9 June 1967
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Arab-Israeli Situation Report
s of -. M , , DT
1. The situation in Cairo tonight is very confused.
Mobs are filling the streets and many people are shouting
"we want Nasir." Unidentified planes have been reported
over the city with their lights on and anti-aircraft
fire was heard. Whether this is a play to whip up
enthusiasm for the return of Nasir to office or is
the prelude of a possible coup against the regime cannot
be determined. The Egyptian National Assembly is
being called into meeting this evening, under the
provisions of the constitution relating to presidential
resignation, to act on Nasir's proffered resignation.
Under the Constitution the President must submit his
resignation to the National Assembly and the First Vice-
President takes over temporarily. The Assembly by two-
thirds vote declares the post of President vacant
and a new President is to be chosen within 60 days.
2. It was announced this afternoon in Cairo that
Egyptian Minister of War Badran has submitted his resignation
along with Nasir and Abd al-Hakim Amir. Badran visited
Moscow shortly before the outbreak of this week's
hostilities.
3.
The Israelis have stated public y
that the drive toward Damascus is aimed at overthrowing
the left-wing socialist Baathist party which the Israelis
blame, for starting the entire Middle East crisis.
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5. Jordan, which dropped out of the war on
Wednesday, has claimed that 15,000 civilians and troops
were killed in three days of fighting with Israel.
6. The Israelis have announced the establishment
of "a number" of prisoner-of-war camps in various parts
of the country, and have mentioned that one in the
north already holds 1,500 prisoners; others hold
"hundreds" of Egyptians and Jordanians.
7. Both Israel and Syria have accepted the UN
Security Council's latest ceasefire order, but there
is no information as yet to confirm its implementation.
Israel agreed to a ceasefire provided Syria not only
agrees, but "implements" it.
8. One key Foreign Office member is thinking of
a peace settlement in terms of a US-USSR agreement
which could be sold to the belligerents. This official
believes Britain should help urge "restraint" on
Israel in return for Soviet help with Britain's
specific Middle Eastern problems: The re-opening of
-the canal; resumption of the oil flow; and a solution
to the South Arabian tangle. General British sympathy
for Israel and its security needs will likely be tempered
by London's interests in the Arab states.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
9 June 1967
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Arab-Israeli Situation Report
(As of 7:30 p.m. EDT)
1. There was at time of writing no firm information
on the status of military operations on the Israeli-
Syrian front. The Syrian UN delegate claimed that
as of 6:15 PM (EDT) Israeli aircraft were still overflying
Syria and that Israeli forces were still "massing"
for further attack, but this information would not
necessarily indicate continued fighting as such.
2. Shortly after Nasir's first statement this
afternoon, which began at 12:43 PM (EDT), Egyptian
anti-aircraft guns in the Cairo area opened up and it
was alleged that an Israeli air raid was in progress,
3. Cairo's Middle East News Agency reports that
the Egyptian National Assembly has unanimously adopted
a resolution rejecting Nasir's resignation. The
resolution says, "On behalf of our millions we say,
no, no. Your are our leader and president of our
republic. You will remain so as long as we live."
Nasir had earlier announced his intention to go to the
National Assembly tomorrow and discuss the matter,
meanwhile calling on the people "to wait until the
morning.` Presumably his intention to address the
Assembly still stands.
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4. In his resignation speech, Nasir predictably
blamed his defeat on "imperialist collusion" with Israel.
Despite this "setback," he claimed that the Arab nations
are capable of "insisting on the removal of the traces
of the aggression." He called for Arab unity and the
elimination of imperialism from the Arab world.
5. According to press reports, thousands of
demonstrators took part in torchlight processions through
the streets of Beirut tonight, demanding that Nasir
withdraw his resignation. Radio Baghdad has also
reported that huge crowds of weeping demonstrators
besieged the Egyptian embassy in Baghdad tonight,
threatening an all-night sit-down strike there unless
Nasir withdrew his resignation.
7. The Saudis are apparently dealing harshly
with those participating in mob action against the
American consulate and other American installations
in Dhahran. Two were killed and others injured when
security police fired into the crowd during one
disturbance, and most of those involved in the rioting
have apparently been arrested. It is popularly believed
that they are being severely punished, and this has
helped stabilize the tense situation.
8. The situation in Libya is reportedly quiet,
with women and children beginning to reappear in the
streets, despite Radio Cairo reports that 10,000
Libyans are rioting in Tripoli against the Americans
and the British. Libyans are said to be perplexed,
frustrated and depressed at the news of the stunning
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Arab defeat.
9. As an example of growing Arab disillusionment
with the Soviet Union, a pro-Egyptian newspaper
in Cyprus editorialized that the Arab defeat was
the result of a "secret understanding" between the US
and the USSR, and claimed that Arabs are viewing
the Soviet stand as "true perfidy."
10. Radio Moscow announced tonight that a summit
meeting of the European communist nations--less
Rumania, apparently--met today to discuss the Middle
East. The statement they issued, according to the
first releases, warned only that if Israel did not
stop its "aggression," the socialist states "will
do everything possible to help the peoples of the
Arab countries to resolutely rebuff the aggressor,
defend their legitimate rights, extinguish the
hotbed of war, and restore peace."
13. In Algiers today large crowds opposed to the
ceasefire gathered outside the Egyptian Cultural
Center and the Algerian Defense Ministry shouting such
things as "lynch Nasir," "Down with Israel" and "give
us arms." According to the press, authorities outlining
the Algerian position on the war said that "for Algeria,
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the war continues."
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