SPECIAL ASSESSMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST SITUATION

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CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0
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RIPPUB
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T
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28
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December 21, 2016
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November 14, 2007
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11
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June 8, 1967
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IM
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Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 '`'', `"e Top Secret MEMORANDUM Special Assessments on the Middle East Situation State Dept. review completed DIA review(s) completed. VYINIPIA(f JOB Top Secret 17 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 ; Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 I. ISRA:L OBJECTIVES FOLLOWING CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES 1. With a total victcry in sight, and complete command of the situation in both the political and mili- tary fields, Israel will exert every possible effort for a final settlement of all territorial, political and diplomatic problems which have rankled and harassed the state and people of Israel since its formation. Is- rael wants a final peace settlement and acceptance of Israel as a Near East state recognized by the belliger- ents at a formal peace parley. This is unlikely to ma- terialize. Short of such a settlement, Israel's objec- tives may be divided into ultimate demands and those on which Israel would be willing to compromise for concrete political gains or long-term pacification of the area. 2. Ultimate Demands a. Permanent access to the Old City of Jeru- salem; General Dayan has been reported as saying that Is- rael will not give up the Old City. From a historical, religious, and security point of view, the Old City is probably the most important territory on the periphery of Israel. The Israelis will try to keep it and world Jewry will strongly support their efforts to do so. The only foreseeable compromise might be Israel's accept- ance of its internationalization. b. Control of Sharm ash-Shaykh to guarantee permanent free access to the Gulf of Aqaba. c. Annexation of a considerable strip of ter- ritory in the Nablus Region. (This fertile Jordanian bulge reduces Israel to a narrow, ten-mile-wide corridor between the,north and south.) d. Removal of the Gaza Strip from Egyptian control, possibly by annexation. (This is an area which, as long as it is under Egyptian control, is a serious threat to the security of southwest Israel. However, it would be a distinct economic liability.) Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Khan Yunis ? Jabalyah Gaza`"" Al Burayj / ?Nahal'Oz s ISRAEL \., Rafai} ` 0 5 ! MILES UAR \ / BEIRUT* DAMASCUS 4 1 SYRIA I Nablus Yafo (rL OAMMAN R E P U B L I C (E G Y P T1 Port Said ?CAIRO Suez Migdal Ashqelon. Gaza, GAZA STRIP 'Port Tauftq An Nakhl S I N A I U N I T E D ARAB f :ebb JORDAN Beersheba A1Karak SAUDI ARABIA Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 25X1 e. Control over a small area between the Yarmuk River and the southeast shores of the Lake of Galilee. 3. Objectives Subject to Revision, Negotiation, or Compromise a. Claims to and retention of all Jordanian territory west of the Jordan River until Israel's ma- jor demands have been satisfied. b. Retention of the Sinai Peninsula for po- litical bargaining purposes. d. Deportation of most of the population of the Gaza Strip on the ground that the majority of them are not refugees. (There is considerable significance in the fact that the Israelis captured all of the UNWRA rolls in Gaza.) 4. As an extreme measure, if the Israelis seriously intend to retain the West Bank of the Jordan, they may force all of the Palestinian refugees to move across the river to the East Bank. Neutralization or perhaps an- nexation of a narrow strip of Syrian highland overlook- ing the upper Jordan valley between the Lake of Galilee and the present northern Israeli-Syrian border, to in- clude the headwaters of the Jordan which rise in Syria. (Israeli demands will depend on outcome of hostilities with Syria.) Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 1. Any assessment of Nasir's intentions, or even his present status in the UAR must be tentative. The UAR has suffered a staggering military defeat and Nasir's position must be accordingly weakened. Most of his air force has been destroyed, and he has apparently lost much of his armor, We do not yet know how many of the 50-80,000 well-equipped Egyp- tian troops in the Sinai Peninsula were killed, captured, or managed to escape, but the UAR's losses were certainly very heavy. News of these disasters is only beginning to seep through to his people, causing some shock and despair. resentment against Nasir current efforts of the Egyptian press and radio to exalt Nasir as the indispensible hero and leader appear to confirm his weakened position. is beginning to be voiced in some quarters. The 2. There are important factors, however, working for Nasir. The claim that Israel's victory was made possible only by the massive intervention of US and UK air forces appears to be generally accepted throughout the UAR. Nasir himself appears to have believed it in the beginning, though the refutation of this claim by the Soviets has prob- ably undercut this conviction among the Egyptian leadership. Yet Nasir is likely to continue suc- cessfully to exploit the myth that he is a martyr and victim of imperialism. Further, in the UAR there is no obvious alternative to Nasir? The army remains the only significant power in Egypt, and Nasir is probably still its unquestioned leader. Hence, we believe that, except in the unlikely event of a major Israeli thrust threatening Cairo, Nasir will remain in power. 3. In time, disillusion with his abysmal failure may produce moves against him from the army or other quarters, but probably not while Egypt is in its present state of shambles and psychological bankruptcy. Our guess is that no one will want to pick up the pieces just yet. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 4. Nasir's present standing in the Arab world is less clear. As long as fighting with Israel continues, no Arab leader will publicly express any- thing but support for the UAR. The Syrians, however, have shied away from following Nasir's lead in joining in large-scale hostilities with Israel and they are clearly not responsive to Nasir's control. The conservative Arab states which have had good relations with the West are somewhat disillusioned with Nasir. This is reflected in the failure of Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Kuwait, among others, to break relations with the US. 5. Nasir views the US now as actively seeking to destroy him. He will attempt to exert pressures-- particularly on military bases and oil interests throughout the Arab world--to get the US to adopt a stance less partial to the Israelis. As for the USSR, he clearly was disappointed at its refusal to extend him unqualified political support. Moscow's agreement to a UN cease-fire resolution that did not stipulate Israeli withdrac,7F_a to positions held before the war was particularly galling. Nasir is most unlikely, however, to endanger his generally close relations with the Soviet Union. He remains com- pletely dependent on it for military equipment, and for considerable economic assistance both of which he now urgently needs. Nor have the Soviets abandoned 6. Nasir is obviously trying to minimize his political losses. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Nasir prob- ably realizes that the canal will have to be re- opened, that oil production will inevitably be re- sumed, and his chief concern is to play a prominent role in effecting these decisions and making sure they are done in a manner most favorable to him. In short, he is trying to continue his role as political leader wherever feasible. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 III. SOVIET ATTITUDES AND INTENTIONS IN' THE MIDDLE EAST 1. An Office of National Estimates memorandum on this topic is being issued today. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Top Secret *mw -VO Top Secret Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence 9 June 1967 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM Arab-Israeli Situation Report (As of 0800 AM EDT 2. In Egypt, a clash along the Suez Canal, probably involving one of the retreating Egyptian units attempting to cross the canal, temporarily interrupted the cease-fire. An Egyptian communique broadcast over Cairo radio at 7:29 AM EDT said calm now prevails. In its earlier announcement of the new outbreak of fighting, Cairo claimed that the Israelis were attacking Egyptian forces "west" of the canal. There has been no other indication that the Israelis crossed the waterway. 3. The US Embassy in Beirut says it is "battening down the hatches" in the face of rising anti-US feeling among Lebanon's Muslims. The Grand Mufti has called on all his followers to fight the US and UK "in every way." The local security forces believe they can control the situation, however. 4. Both Prime Minister Karame of Lebanon and President Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Bourguiba of Tunisia have weighed in with ominous predictions of the harmful effect the crisis will have on US interests and prestige. Both also recommended to our Ambassadors that the US try to see that the Arabs are not too humiliated in the settlement ending the affair. 6. Abba Eban told the press last night at Kennedy Airport that peace terms must be hammered out "in direct negotiations between Israel and the Arab states." This isn't as simple as it sounds. Mere recognition of Israel, even tacitly through direct negotiations, would be an extremely bitter pill for the Arabs to swallow, and they can be expected to stall and hedge as long as is possible before capitulating to that extent. In 1949, the Palestine War ended with a series of armistice agreements, but the Arabs successfully avoided peace negotiations and a treaty. Thus, for the Israelis, the specific terms of any settlement are of secondary importance to getting the Arabs, especially Nasir, to the conference table. 7. Nasir's speech today will be on Egyptian radio and television starting at 12:30 PM EDT. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Iq Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 I 25X1 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence 9 June 1967 Arab-Israeli Situation Report A of :00 M E ) - 1. There is no further information on the military situation along the Syrian/Israeli front. Israel and Syria have accused each other of violating the UN cease fire. Israel claims that the Syrian army "launched a full scale attack along the entire front." The settle- ments of Tel Qatsir and Haon were being shelled according to Jerusalem radio at 0743. A US official in Tel Aviv commented yesterday that the atmosphere in Tel Aviv indicated that 9 June would be "Syrian day" and that attaches were informed not to travel in the north of the country during that day- [ 2. The cease fire remains intact in Sinai, despite a brief skirmish in that area early this morning. According to an Israeli military spokesman, and Egyptian task force trapped in the Sinai desert attempted "to break their encirclement and were re- pulsed." An Egyptian communique said that 13 Israeli tanks and 3 planes had been destroyed during the battle. 3. Press reports indicate considerable bitterness in Cairo over -the failure of the Soviet Union, "which had talked so stronz1v of Arab support" to come to the aid of the Arabs. 25X1 2bAl Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Nasir's prestige reportedly has sli considerably in Lebanon. 5. A mob of Arab students protesting alleged US and British aid to Israel marched on the US and British embassies in Moscow, but were turned back by "the heaviest defenses ever thrown around a foreign mission in Moscow." A force of an estimated 5,000 Soviet troops and police guarded the US embassy. The Syrian ambassador was apparently afraid to try to persuade the students not to demonstrate as requested by the Soviets. 6. Radio Amman is appealing to the Jordanians on the West Bank to ':'Stay where you are and do not allow the enemy to create a new refugee tragedy." Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 8. The Israeli military attache in London yes- terday told an American official that his government had successfully neutralized Lebanon during the present crisis by passing the word to the Lebanese military that they would be held "accountable" for any actions against Israel. This would include reprisals against the Jewish community in Lebanon. 10. Peking has seized upon the Soviet role in the Middle East crisis to accuse Moscow of betraying the Arab states. In a People's Daily commentary today, the Chinese charged the Sovie'a w h "stabbing the Arabs in the back." The article asserted that the Soviets were "colluding with the US in arranging for a UN reso- lution aimed at forcing the Arabs to put up with "armed aggression" by the US and Israel. The Chinese are also continuing to stage massive demonstrations in Peking denouncing the US and Britain, but have refrained from pledges of material assistance. 11. At the UN, reactions are mixed to the US draft resolution tabled yesterday which calls for talks on all the outstanding issues in the Middle Eastern crisis after the ceasefire has been effected. Many delegations feel the proposal is untimely and doubt that the Council should focus its attention on long range problems at this time. The Arabs say that the US draft does not set guidelines for the negotia- tions and fails to mention preservation of the terri- torial integrity of all the states. Another question in many delegates minds is whether the Council President should be given a long range role in view of the ro- tation of office every month. However, Hans Tabor, the President this month, says the presidential office would be quite useful since the Secretary General is sometimes too restrained and cautious, and prevented by conflict- ing views of the members from playing an active role. Despite some overlapping between US and Canadian reso- lutions, Ottawa still intends to go ahead with its Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 resolution which calls for the Council president with the assistance of the Secretary General to see that a ceasefire is implemented. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Iq Next 4 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence 9 June 1967 Arab-Israeli Situation Report (As of 2:00 7PM EDT) 1. It is not clear at this point whether Nasir's decision to "give up completely and finally every of- ficial post and every political role and to return to the ranks of the public" should be taken at face value or whether it is a maneuver, aimed at obtaining a fresh mandate in the crisis and thereby strengthening his hand. In his speech, he said this was a decision in which "I want you all to help," and that the "im- perialist forces imagine that Nasir is their enemy" but that "I want it to be clear to them that it is the whole Arab nation, not just Abd al-Nasir." This has a ring of sincerity, but it does not preclude a return to office by popular demand. 2. The replacement Nasir has named, Vice Presi- dent Zacharia Muhieddin, is a personally mild man who served as prime minister during a "swing toward the West" period i 965-66 He had wood personal relations with Americans He is no e trusted member of Nasir's old Revolutionary Command Council and a dedicated Arab nationalist as well as an Egyptian patriot. His personal modesty and lack of ambition would suggest that he would not hesitate to step down if Nasir should decide to reassume the top leadership. 3. The Jordanian Foreign Minister has appealed to the ambassadors in Amman of the Four Big Powers to use their influence with the Israelis "to let the West Bank population stay where it is." The embassy comments Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 ftNOW that the government obviously fears that refugees will only :aggravate an already precarious internal situation on the East Bank. 4. the embassy was under attack as of 1340 EDT. Marine guards have given personnel 20 minutes to evacuate the building. 5. The American Consulate in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia has reported on the general security situation along the Persian Gulf. Bahrain is quiet although non- violent demonstrations have taken place. Anti-Western demonstrations and some rioting have also occurred in the Trucial states of Dubai, Doha and Qatar, but oil shipments are still being made from both Qatar and Abu Dhabi 6. Rioting Algerians attacked the Egyptian Embassy in Algiers today in what is apparently the first anti-Egyptian demonstration which has taken place in an Arab country. The action was in protest against Cairo's acceptance of the UN ceasefire yesterday. Police dispersed the rioters and have placed a heavy guard around the embassy building. 7. U Thant reported that Israeli planes have raided Damascus and that 200 Israeli planes were active this morning north of the Sea of Galilee. Thant referred to UNTSO messages which reported that the "bombing, napalming and strafing" of Syrian terri- tory was in progress and that "heavy explosions were heard north of the inland sea." Radio Jerusalem in Israel called on the Syrian population to raise white flags over their homes, "keep away from Syrian soldiers and vehicles," and to overthrow the leftwing socialist Baath ruling party in Damascus. Describing an Israeli attack which the Syrians claim extends the entire length of the armistice line, Radio Damascus issued communique after communique claiming "heavy human and material losses," by the invading Israeli army and exhorted the Syrians to fight on. 18. Cairo Radio at 1:58 PM EDT announced the resignation of Egyptian First Vice President and Deputy Supreme Commander Abd al-Hakim.Amir. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 25X1 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence 9 June 1967 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM Arab-Israeli Situation Report s of -. M , , DT 1. The situation in Cairo tonight is very confused. Mobs are filling the streets and many people are shouting "we want Nasir." Unidentified planes have been reported over the city with their lights on and anti-aircraft fire was heard. Whether this is a play to whip up enthusiasm for the return of Nasir to office or is the prelude of a possible coup against the regime cannot be determined. The Egyptian National Assembly is being called into meeting this evening, under the provisions of the constitution relating to presidential resignation, to act on Nasir's proffered resignation. Under the Constitution the President must submit his resignation to the National Assembly and the First Vice- President takes over temporarily. The Assembly by two- thirds vote declares the post of President vacant and a new President is to be chosen within 60 days. 2. It was announced this afternoon in Cairo that Egyptian Minister of War Badran has submitted his resignation along with Nasir and Abd al-Hakim Amir. Badran visited Moscow shortly before the outbreak of this week's hostilities. 3. The Israelis have stated public y that the drive toward Damascus is aimed at overthrowing the left-wing socialist Baathist party which the Israelis blame, for starting the entire Middle East crisis. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 5. Jordan, which dropped out of the war on Wednesday, has claimed that 15,000 civilians and troops were killed in three days of fighting with Israel. 6. The Israelis have announced the establishment of "a number" of prisoner-of-war camps in various parts of the country, and have mentioned that one in the north already holds 1,500 prisoners; others hold "hundreds" of Egyptians and Jordanians. 7. Both Israel and Syria have accepted the UN Security Council's latest ceasefire order, but there is no information as yet to confirm its implementation. Israel agreed to a ceasefire provided Syria not only agrees, but "implements" it. 8. One key Foreign Office member is thinking of a peace settlement in terms of a US-USSR agreement which could be sold to the belligerents. This official believes Britain should help urge "restraint" on Israel in return for Soviet help with Britain's specific Middle Eastern problems: The re-opening of -the canal; resumption of the oil flow; and a solution to the South Arabian tangle. General British sympathy for Israel and its security needs will likely be tempered by London's interests in the Arab states. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Iq Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence 9 June 1967 INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM Arab-Israeli Situation Report (As of 7:30 p.m. EDT) 1. There was at time of writing no firm information on the status of military operations on the Israeli- Syrian front. The Syrian UN delegate claimed that as of 6:15 PM (EDT) Israeli aircraft were still overflying Syria and that Israeli forces were still "massing" for further attack, but this information would not necessarily indicate continued fighting as such. 2. Shortly after Nasir's first statement this afternoon, which began at 12:43 PM (EDT), Egyptian anti-aircraft guns in the Cairo area opened up and it was alleged that an Israeli air raid was in progress, 3. Cairo's Middle East News Agency reports that the Egyptian National Assembly has unanimously adopted a resolution rejecting Nasir's resignation. The resolution says, "On behalf of our millions we say, no, no. Your are our leader and president of our republic. You will remain so as long as we live." Nasir had earlier announced his intention to go to the National Assembly tomorrow and discuss the matter, meanwhile calling on the people "to wait until the morning.` Presumably his intention to address the Assembly still stands. Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826A002100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 4. In his resignation speech, Nasir predictably blamed his defeat on "imperialist collusion" with Israel. Despite this "setback," he claimed that the Arab nations are capable of "insisting on the removal of the traces of the aggression." He called for Arab unity and the elimination of imperialism from the Arab world. 5. According to press reports, thousands of demonstrators took part in torchlight processions through the streets of Beirut tonight, demanding that Nasir withdraw his resignation. Radio Baghdad has also reported that huge crowds of weeping demonstrators besieged the Egyptian embassy in Baghdad tonight, threatening an all-night sit-down strike there unless Nasir withdrew his resignation. 7. The Saudis are apparently dealing harshly with those participating in mob action against the American consulate and other American installations in Dhahran. Two were killed and others injured when security police fired into the crowd during one disturbance, and most of those involved in the rioting have apparently been arrested. It is popularly believed that they are being severely punished, and this has helped stabilize the tense situation. 8. The situation in Libya is reportedly quiet, with women and children beginning to reappear in the streets, despite Radio Cairo reports that 10,000 Libyans are rioting in Tripoli against the Americans and the British. Libyans are said to be perplexed, frustrated and depressed at the news of the stunning Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 I Arab defeat. 9. As an example of growing Arab disillusionment with the Soviet Union, a pro-Egyptian newspaper in Cyprus editorialized that the Arab defeat was the result of a "secret understanding" between the US and the USSR, and claimed that Arabs are viewing the Soviet stand as "true perfidy." 10. Radio Moscow announced tonight that a summit meeting of the European communist nations--less Rumania, apparently--met today to discuss the Middle East. The statement they issued, according to the first releases, warned only that if Israel did not stop its "aggression," the socialist states "will do everything possible to help the peoples of the Arab countries to resolutely rebuff the aggressor, defend their legitimate rights, extinguish the hotbed of war, and restore peace." 13. In Algiers today large crowds opposed to the ceasefire gathered outside the Egyptian Cultural Center and the Algerian Defense Ministry shouting such things as "lynch Nasir," "Down with Israel" and "give us arms." According to the press, authorities outlining the Algerian position on the war said that "for Algeria, Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 Approved For Release 2007/11/14: CIA-RDP79T00826AO02100010011-0 the war continues." 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