OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS BRIEFING PAPER 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP71T00730R000200030118-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 29
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 21, 2000
• Sequence Number: 118
• Content Type: PAPER

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BRIEFING PAPER
1956
Page
to
Introduction
1
II.
Economic Intelligence
3
III.
IV.
Geographic Intelligence
Interagency Coordination
12
TAB A
Additional Highlights
TAB B
1956 Plaudits
ATTACHMENT A Statistical Summary
Table 1 o Reports Completed
Table 2. Maps Completed
Table 3- Projects in Progress
Table T+ Maps in Progress
ATTACHMENT B Time Distribution Summary
Table 1. Man.-Hours Applied to Direct Support (FY 1956--1st half)
Table 20 Man-Hours Applied to Direct Support (FY 1957--1st half)
Table 3. Distribution of Research by Geographic Area
Table T. Man-Hours Expended on Research by Category
Table 5. Summary of Time Distribution (FY 1957--1st half)
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OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
BRIEFING PAPER
Introduction
The past year can be characterized as a year of crises and change
within the Sino-Soviet Bloc. It was marked by conflict with the leader-
ship in Communist Poland, by revolution in Hungary, and by widespread
unrest. The impact of the Polish and Hungarian developments spread over
the entire Sino-Soviet Bloc and was clearly a factor in the general re-
vision of economic targets and economic programs. Poland completely
reorganized its economic program and its planning and control procedures.
As of the end of 1956, the situation in Hungary continued sufficiently
chaotic to preclude the development of any new economic programs.
The forces at work in the Satellites combined with the ambitious
objectives of the Soviet Sixth Five-Year Plan required almost complete re-
vamping of 1957 economic plans and made probable a revision of the entire
Sixth Five-Year Plan (1956-60). Leaders of the Chinese Communist Party
were on~rened in October to review its achievements under the First Five-
a,? Plan and noted major imbalances in Chinese economic development
while outlining their program for the Second Five-Year Plan (1958-62).
Egypt:ian seizure of the Suez Canal and the ensuing developments in the
Mid !6 Ease;, which resulted in the blockage of the Suez Canal further
added to these strained economic conditions in the Bloc.
Despite these economic problems, however, the USSR and other Com-
munist states continued their expansion during 1956 of credit for arms
and long-ran economic development to the underdeveloped countries of the
Free World There appears to be no reduction in this program in the im-
mediate future, with the exception of delays in the implementation of aid
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agreements with Yugoslavia which results from current political relations
between the two countries.
Geographic as well as economic realities have influenced recent de-
?!elopments in the Soviet Bloc. We note, for example., that the ballyhooed
New Lands" Program in agriculture attempts to enlarge the Soviet food
sapply by an organized exploitation of steppe lands comparable to the
wheat'-producing high plains of western Canada and the United States. In
Egypt., we have seen ostensible Soviet support of the Aswan Dam which makes
the fu.les't propaganda use of Egypt's pressing need for the enlargement of
Nile Valley resources. Throughout the Middle East, South and East Asia.,
and the European Satellites, the activities of the Soviet Union have re-
cted a keen awareness of the factors of strategic location and re-
so-xr e as they serve Soviet ends and those of the Free World.
period of strain and change within the Sino-Soviet Bloc, it
is essential. that U.S. policy planners be provided with timely and accurate
int;rpretations of current economic activities and problems of the Bloc., as
as the best possible evaluation of its long-term capabilities and
Our Office of Research and Reports provides the factual analyses
re a ?: to anticipate and prepare for major economic problems which stem
from the rapid progression of events within the Sino-Soviet Bloc and which
may a?i ct the long-range power balance in the world. In describing the
work of is Office, I shall mention in addition to its economic and
geographic intelligence production some other important activities which
inc1ude its coordinating responsibility and its intelligence support to
eoonomiico defense.
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Economic Intelligence
The various problems of the Sino-Soviet Bloc economies are so com-
plex and closely interrelated that its many parts can properly be
measured only by applying an integrated approach in the research effort.
Assessment of the real problems affecting Soviet economic growth re-
quires an attack on an overall basis. Other components of the intel-
ligence community are not equipped, and are not charged, with this
overall approach to the study of the economies of the Sino-Soviet Bloc;
their economic research efforts are understandably oriented toward
their individual departmental interests. By interagency agreement, the
primary responsibility for economic research on the Sino-Soviet Bloc
now rests squarely on the Office of Research and Reports.
To carry out this responsibility, the intelligence effort must be
directed at all levels of the economy and in varying degrees of inten-
sity. With respect to recent political and economic disruptions in the
European Satellites, attention has been focused on the stability and
cohesion of the Satellite and Soviet economies and on the impact, which
is already being felt, of the reorientation of international trade
within the Soviet Bloc and between the European Satellites and the Free
World.. Our analyses have emphasized the exploration of factors which
may lead to some loosening of Soviet control over individual Satellites,
while simultaneously evaluating the extent to which the USSR will be
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WWWREM
called upon to invest additional money and materials in the area.
In recognition, and indeed anticipation, of some of the develop-
ments which took place in 1956, this Office had regrouped its strength
to deal rapidly with the economic developments taking place in the
Eastern European Satellite countries. Well before the latest crises in
Poland and Hungary, we had increased the strength of our European Satel-
lites research effort. This action was promptly justified by events
and, as a result, U.S. policy planners were quickly provided with
detailed information on the economic implications of the recent changes
in Eastern Europe and with estimates of related Soviet requirements for
the support of their control over this area.
It should also be mentioned that this Office has continued to
expand and intensify its economic research on Communist China. We are
engaged in a program of complementary and interlocking research projects
dealing with the Chinese economy. This program includes the study and
evaluation of the Chinese potential for industrial growth, and an evalua-
tion of all available information on the remarkably heavy dependence of
the Chinese Communists on the technical assistance, plant equipment, and
other capital goods being furnished by the Soviet Union and the European
Satellites. Indications of cutbacks in Chinese Communist plan goals are
also under rigorous scrutiny.
Analysis of possible large-scale reductions in the objectives of
the Soviet Sixth Five-Year Plan has been directed at an evaluation of
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the significance of the apparent Soviet failure to maintain past rates
of economic growth and an assessment of the prospects for revisions in
basic Soviet economic policy. I might say parenthetically that our
Office of Research and Reports, within a matter of hours of the re-
ceipt by radio of the draft revisions of the 1957 Plan, had placed in
the hands of the policymakers an accurate picture of the salient
features of 'these revisions and their effect on the major economic
objectives which the Soviets have set for themselves.
In the past two years, the NATO organization has shown increased
concern with this problem of Soviet economic expansion in its efforts
to appraise the East-West power balance. This Office participated in
providing support to NATO in estimating long-term trends in economic
growth and capabilities of the Sino-Soviet Bloc as compared with
trends in the Free World.
How are these problems of the Soviet Bloc economy analyzed, and
how are the answers obtained through an integrated and coordinated
approach? The Office undertakes intensive analysis of fragmentary
and conflicting data obtained overtly and covertly from innumerable
sok,rces, and from these bits and pieces develops the economic intel-
ligence on the Sino-Soviet Bloc required both in production of
National Intelligence Estimates and in a variety of special studies
in response to high priority requests. Further, it provides guidance
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to the collection activities of CIA and other agencies. The complexity
of the job demands the welding together of all the various skills
brought into the organization. The economist, the technical expert, the
cola try and language specialist, all are vital parts of the research
team. All need special additional training, which is expensive and time
consuming, but absolutely necessary.
Attention is being given to the development of new techniques of
analysis in order to make maximum use of the factual information which
is constantly flowing into the Office. Pursuing the successful analyti-
cal approach developed in the past year or two for making cost estimates
of Soviet military programs, an effort is now being made to extend this
price and cost analysis to our estimates of present and future Soviet
atomic energy development. These costs will be checked against the
capability of the Soviet economy to provide for the facilities and new
yxr,estments indicated. These analyses take the form of rigorous in-
spection of Soviet cost and price relationships as an important step
toward the determination of the principal areas of Soviet industrial
strength and weakness. It is anticipated that the results of these
studies may make it possible for us to forecast production trends in
to Soviet domestic economy and, equally important, to forecast the
composition and direction of Soviet goods which may move into world
trade in competition with U.S. and other Western production in Free
World countries.
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Concurrently with its comprehensive economic research, the Office
of Research and Reports evaluates and interprets current economic
developments within the Bloc countries and in their relation to the
Free World. A special staff, working in close cooperation with the
Office of Current Intelligence and supported by appropriate research
components, prepares timely reports of these developments for inclusion
in the Agency's output of current intelligence. The same mechanism is
used in marshalling the full support of this Office behind the National
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to the community are based on the analysis of
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Each of our economic research components periodically calls upon a
small panel of cleared consultants drawn from among top executives in
American industry. Through these panels, we obtain an excellent inde-
pendent check on the soundness of our estimates and advice on ways to
simplify or economize in our research procedures.
The annual economic research program of the Office, aimed as it is
at serving many different interests and purposes, is necessarily complex.
Past experience, now analyzed quantitatively through the use of IBM
methods, is depended on heavily in the development of revised and new
programs. Particular attention is given to the Priority National Intel-
ligence Objectives and to such advice as our principal consumers are able
to give concerning their requirements in the months to come. Formulation
of the program begins with full provision for support to the production
of schedules and anticipated National Intelligence Estimates. Provision
must also be made for scheduled contributions to the National Intelligence
Surveys, where this Office has the responsibility for economic sections
dealing with the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Similarly, certain aspects of our work
in support of other agencies can be scheduled in response to community-
wide deficiencies in economic intelligence as identified by the Economic
Intelligence Committee. In addition., we are aware from experience that,
a substantial portion of our research time will have to be spent in
meeting "crash" or emergency requests from various high-level consumers.
It is in this manner that the Office of Research and Reports pro-
vides the necessary intelligence on economic activities and trends of
the countries within the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
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Geographic Intelligence
We maintain within our Office of Research and Reports a group of
competent geographic analysts and photo intelligence specialists who
provide research and technical support to all parts of the Agency, and
contribute substantially to the National Intelligence Surveys Program.
A major part of the work of the geographic group, mostly in the
form of geographic intelligence reports and maps, is undertaken in
direct support of operations planning and field activities, either of
the Agency or the Armed Services. On the accuracy of this effort
depends the lives of individuals who are either to be rescued from
hostile territory or put into hostile territory to accomplish opera-
tional missions. For instance, during the initial period of increased
activity in the Middle East area last year, Air Force crew members in
Libya and Morocco were briefed from special geographic reports pre-
pared by this Office on how to evade or escape should USAF planes
crash land behind enemy lines. There have been several reports from
the field to the effect that lives have been saved because of the
accuracy of these and similar briefing materials. Another type of
report prepared by this group is the map and textual analysis of
important operational targets and safe approaches to them. Still other
studies deal with. the distribution, characteristics and attitudes of
minority groups living within the boundaries of the Bloc. These are
used for operational and psychological warfare purposes.
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During the past year, current geographic intelligence reports on
Antarctica and on the USSR operations in the Antarctic have been pro-
duced and include maps of the area published for the first time. These
were done to guide United States and. Allied policymakers in the deter-
mination of United States interests and the planning and execution of
"Operation Deepfreeze." More recently reports of USSR submarine base
construction in Antarctica have required geographic intelligence support
for the preparation of a Special Estimate of Soviet capabilities and
intentions with respect to the establishment of a permanent military
base and the possibility of future political claims.
Reconnaissance and photographic intelligence continue to increase
in national intelligence interest and are now more important to the
United States by many orders of magnitude than ever before. The
scope and degree of our intelligence dependence upon information
obtained from aerial. photography is clearly indicated by the paramount
position suggested for it by the President in his Summit proposal to
the USSR for mutual air inspection. Currently, the increasing volume
of aerial and ground photography, which is being obtained by United
States forces on a global basis, continues to provide detailed answers
to questions regarding Communist capabilities in potential areas of
operations. CIA, in increasingly closer cooperation with the U.S.
Air Force, Navy, and Army, continues to expand its utilization of this
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growing volume of photography to assist in the preparation of current
intelligence reports, national estimates, and research studies.
For example, current photographic intelligence analyses continue
to yield significant details of Communist Chinese activities in areas
bordering the Taiwan Straits. These analyses are undertaken in direct
support of the IAC Watch Committee. Study of Soviet developments in
the field of guided missiles has been aided by ground photography.
As a result of the increasing volume of reconnaissance photog-
raphy being received in the United States and the intensified demands
within CIA for comprehensive utilization of it, the capacity of the
CIA photographic intelligence has been expanded substantially.
Experience has shown that one of the most effective ways of
presenting intelligence is to make extensive use of specially con-
structed maps. Our cartographic unit within the Office plans and
prepares these intelligence maps for inclusion in CIA reports,
National Intelligence Estimates, National Intelligence Surveys, and
for many other purposes including covert planning and operations.
An extensive map library and map reference facility is also
maintained for use by all authorized Government officials. Its
specialized collection of foreign maps is kept current through a
coordinated and highly effective interagency map procurement program
that reflects the requirements of the several Government agencies
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having need for foreign maps and minimizes the possibility of duplica-
tive collection efforts.
Interagency Coordination
In carrying out CIA's responsibilities for coordinating economic
intelligence of interest to our national security, as directed by the
National Security Council, the Office of Research and Reports plays an
active role in the work of the interagency Economic Intelligence Com-
mittee (EIC), established in 1951 under CIA chairmanship. This Committee
includes representatives from the IAC agencies which produce economic
intelligence, i.e., the Department of State, the three Armed Services,
the Joint Staff (JCS), and CIA, and has associate members from such non-
IAC agencies as Agriculture, Commerce, Interior, and the International
Cooperation Administration. Our Office of Research and Reports provides
secretariat services for the main Committee and for 13 subcommittees, as
well as for a number of standing and ad hoc working groups.
Among the principal responsibilities of the E1C is the production
of agreed interagency reports on selected economic intelligence issues
of major importance. For example, Biweekly and periodic Summary re-
ports on Sino-Soviet Bloc Economic Penetration Efforts in Free World
Underdeveloped Areas are widely distributed to key U.S. Government
officials and offices, including principal overseas posts. These
reports have also been made available to the Senate Foreign Relations
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and House Foreign Affairs Committees. As another example, periodic
coordinated reports have also been published on the size and composition
of Communist China's foreign trade. This has been a principal reference
work within the Government on such questions as Communist China's
dependence on imports from Bloc and non-Bloc sources.
The EIC systematically reviews the economic intelligence effort
within the U.S. Government to assist in identifying priority deficien-
cies in research and collection and in avoiding unnecessary duplication
of research by the individual agencies. One example of the means by
which duplication in research programing is reduced is the survey
listings of the EIC which periodically report the status of all in-
ternal and external (contractual) U.S. Government economic research
on the Sino-Soviet Bloc and on Free World underdeveloped areas involved
in Bloc economic penetration efforts. Moreover, proposals for U.S.
Government external economic research amounting to $5,OOC or more are
reviewed by the EIC. Through this Committee mechanism, the Office of
Research and Reports, as the organization primarily responsible for
providing intelligence on the Sino-Soviet Bloc economies, obtains
guidance in the continuing re-examination of its own y ~,sea.rch program.
Continued efforts are directed by the EIC toward improved coordi-
nation of collection requirements. Through such activities as the
Economic Reporting Guidance Programs systematic
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guidance is provided to officials reporting and traveling within Bloc
countries.
CIA also produces and coordinates intelligence in support of the
U.S. economic defense program. The Office of Research and Reports
represents CIA on the Economic Defense Advisory Committee (EDAC) and
chairs the interagency Economic Defense Intelligence Committee (EDIC)
established under it. In this way, not only the knowledge and compe-
tence of the Office of Research and Reports and of other parts of the
Agency, but also of other intelligence agencies, is provided in support
of economic defense activities. For example, EDIC has on occasions
undertaken to draw on the scientific expertise within the U.S. Govern-
ment for the systematic identification of commodities which have sub-
stantially increased in strategic importance in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
because of recent scientific and technological developments.
Under the NSC directive on economic defense which emphasizes
enforcement of controls, CIA has responsibility for providing action
agencies with the intelligence on illegal transactions and other
efforts to circumvent controls. As part of this support, ORR maintains
intelligence on foreign firms and individuals engaged in transactions
detrimental to Free World security. This extensive file of informa-
tion not only assists the current enforcement effort but would be
invaluable in the event of war.
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The staff coordinating and otherwise providing this intelligence
support by CIA in the field of economic defense has been reduced to a
minimum level adequate to handle the changing priority demands of the
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ADDITIONAL EXAMPLES HIGHLIGHTING ORR ACTIVITIES IN 1956
1. Possible Soviet Guided Missile Testing Ranges
Priority attention has been given to Soviet progress in guided
missile development. On the basis of a given set of known parameters
governing experimental guided missile operations, the entire area of
the Soviet Union is being analyzed to determine which areas have the
proper combination of geographical elements--such as surface configura-
tion, climate, water, settlement patterns, transportation facilities--
required for the physical location of ICBM and IREM ranges. The
conclusions from these studies are submitted in support of intelligence
on the Soviet guided missile research and development program, serving
as guidance for the continued surveillance of Soviet activities in this
field by the intelligence community.
2. Intelligence Support for Collection Activities
Due to the obsolescence or complete lack of city plans and street
guides for many centers in the Soviet Union, military attaches and
other collection personnel have been seriously handicapped in their
mission. At the request of ONI, USAF, and collection organs within the
CIA, detailed city plans are prepared which specifically assist the
field collector. Maps of Moscow, Leningrad, and several Satellite
cities have not only enabled the service attaches and other personnel
to find their way, but have helped in locating Soviet activities of
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intelligence interest. Returning personnel state that these city plans
have been of extreme value as an aid to their own activities and as an
item to barter with friendly diplomatic missions in the Soviet Bloc.
3. Civil Defense in the USSR
The first basic study of civil defense in the USSR was completed
in 1956 and represents the only comprehensive analysis of the Soviet
civil defense program available throughout the intelligence community.
The report has been of particular value to the Federal Civil Defense
Agency and has been called to the attention of the National Security
Council by the Director of Central Intelligence.
Our research has demonstrated that the USSR has been developing
an extensive and costly civil defense system throughout the USSR and
has also promoted civil defense preparations in the European Satellites.
This campaign has included the training of millions of people in civil
defense activities and a widespread program of shelter construction.
Soviet civil defense preparations reached a high level of activity in
1955 and 1956, and have been increasingly oriented since 195+ toward
defense against nuclear and biological warfare. Analysis of the Soviet
program has revealed an expenditure of effort in Soviet civil defense
training and protective construction many times larger than that of
the United States.
4. ORR Contribution to the Nuclear Energy Estimates
During the last year, ORR was asked by the Joint Atomic Energy
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Intelligence Committee to contribute to the current estimate on Soviet
capabilities in the nuclear energy field (NIE 11-2-57). After some
delay in necessary clearance procedures and training, ORR initiated a
crash program to implement this request. In a period of only six
weeks, significant contributions were made to this estimate in the
fields of:
a. key raw materials available for the Soviet nuclear
energy program;
b. budget allocations to the investment portion of the
Soviet nuclear energy program; and
c. economic considerations which affect the production
characteristics internal to the program.
These contributions were of immediate use, and also constituted a
promising beginning of a longer range research program aimed at narrow-
ing the range of uncertainty in the Committee's estimate of the size of
the Soviet atomic energy program.
5. Economic Support to the Estimate of Soviet Guided Missiles Program
As part of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE 11-5-57) on
current and projected Soviet guided missile programs, ORR undertook a
series of detailed costing studies of various possible programs pro-
jected forward to 1966. The purpose of these studies was to present
the economic implications of these alternative programs with respect to
their overall size and internal composition. These contributions were
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useful in bringing the estimated size of the program into more realistic
bounds and in adjusting the magnitude of the component guided missiles
programs within the estimated overall program. They also pointed to
possible strains on the electronics industries of the USSR due to the
guided missiles program, highlighting a possibly vulnerable sector of
the Soviet economy needing further examination. These studies also
related the guided missiles program to the overall military expenditures
of the USSR and demonstrated its probable impact on the national economy
as well as on the Soviet defense budget.
6. Structure of the Soviet Economy
The recently completed ORR report on management of the Soviet
industrial enterprise is the first exhaustive intelligence study on
this topic, and is already proving extremely useful in evaluating com-
plex organizational realignments in the Soviet economic structure, The
February 14+, 1957 decree of the Central Committee of the Soviet Commu-
nist Party provides for changes which will result in a significant
measure of basic decentralization of economic administration in the
Soviet Union. This new measure represents a move away from highly
centralized control by All-Union ministries and appears to assign more
authority to regional economic areas. The timing of the decree suggests
that the economic difficulties leading to lower production goals in the
1957 Plan and a review of the Sixth Five-Year Plan resulted, in part at
least, from inefficient forms of economic administration. Future study
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of the implementation of this decree will be greatly assisted by the
recent ORR paper on industrial management and by another study, soon to
be published, dealing with the Soviet planning process.
7. Population Trends in the USSR
A key factor in the ability of the USSR to carry out its long-range
economic development plans will be the size, composition, and distribu-
tion of its population, particularly the labor force. Because of its
direct bearing on Soviet capabilities, reliable demographic information
on the USSR is in constant demand and of critical importance. A signifi-
cant contribution on this subject was contained in a recent ORR report
which indicated that Soviet fertility had decreased by about 20 percent
from 191+0 to 1955. In sharp contrast, U.S. population fertility had
increased by roughly 40-50 percent in the same period. Because the
Soviet economy depends heavily on a rapidly expanding labor force, the
declining Soviet fertility rate will have a significant impact on the
USSR's ambitious plans for rapid economic expansion. During the period
of the Sixth Five-Year Plan (1956-60), for instance, the increase in
the Soviet labor force ,population between the ages of 15 and 59 will
be only about 1+0 percent of the increase during the preceding Five-Year
Plan period. During the next 20 years, moreover, the Soviet advantage
over the U.S. in numbers of males of prime military age (20-30 years)
will probably decline from over 7 million to only about 3 million.
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8. The New Lands Program of the USSR
A basic economic problem confronting the USSR is the necessity of
expanding agricultural production. Prior to 1954, when the so-called
New Lands Program was started in order to put under cultivation vast
acreages in western Siberia and Kazakhstan, the USSR's postwar produc-
tion of food and fodder grains had not yet been restored to the 1937
level. ORR undertook detailed economic and geographic research studies
to determine whether the widely publicized New Lands Program would make
a significant contribution to solution of the Soviet agricultural prob-
lem. These studies have greatly advanced our knowledge of Soviet
agricultural prospects and have enabled us to predict with greater
certainty that present Five-Year Plan goals for agriculture will not
be attained.
9. Communist China's Trade and Transport
During 1956, we completed the sixth annual report on Communist
China's foreign trade activities, a major target of U.S0 intelligence
organizations. This study is particularly valuable to U.S. policy-
makers in assessing the volume and types of commodities moving into
Communist China and the extent of China's dependence on foreign trade
with the rest of the Bloc. Another important aspect of this study has
been the work performed on the transportation elements of China's
foreign trade, particularly with respect to shipments over the Trans-
Siberian Railroad (see example 10). Intelligence representatives from
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the Armed Services and the Department of State have recently reiterated
that this is an essential analytical reference work not only for policy
formulation in Washington, but also for U0S0 officials at foreign posts
and field commands.
10. The Trans-Siberian Railroad
One of the three major reports published recently by ORR on
transportation in the USSR was an exhaustive analysis of the traffic
carried on the Trans-Siberian Railroad. This railroad is of vital
economic importance not only to the USSR but also in supporting the
Bloc-wide program of economic assistance to Communist China. ORR's
research resulted in the first intelligence report to provide an analy-
sis of the economic significance of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, based
on a detailed examination of the volume and character of the traffic
actually carried on the line. In techniques and methods of analysis
of a difficult problem, it is a noteworthy pioneering effort which
will be of great value to the intelligence community.
11, Sino-Soviet Economic Activities in Underdeveloped Areas
The continuation throughout 1956 of the aid and trade offensive
of the USSR, the European Satellites, and Communist China in the under-
developed areas of the world has been of particular concern to U.S,
policymakers and has fully justified our decision, reported a year ago,
to pull together within ORR a small group of highly qualified specialists
to maintain close and systematic surveillance of Bloc activities in this
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field. The results of the research of this group to date have been
published in 27 biweekly and 3 summary analytical reports of the Economic
Intelligence Committee, and have also been incorporated in several
National Intelligence Estimates. These series report on specific Sino-
Soviet Bloc activities relating to economic penetration of Free World
areas and periodically provide estimates of Bloc economic capabilities
in this field. The reports have been published in response to specific
needs of U.S. policy officials concerned with countering the economic
offensive of the Bloc and have been most favorably received by all
recipients, including the Under Secretary of State and the Chairman of
the President's Council on Foreign Economic Policy.
12. Intelligence Support on Exchange Proposals
During 1956, the IAC Standing Committee on Exchanges called on ?RR
and the EIC subcommittees to provide technical advice and suggestions
in connection with proposed visits of Bloc engineers and technicians to
the U.S. in exchange for visits of similar U.S. personnel to the Bloc.
Altogether, ORR contributed some 32 separate reports covering exchanges
in such fields as electronics, telecommunications, agriculture, petroleum,
and shipbuilding. Among other topics, these papers considered the net
intelligence advantage to be derived from the proposed exchanges.
Since the period of Soviet repressions in Hungary and the consequent
interruption of U.S.-Soviet exchanges, the intelligence effort has been
increasingly concentrated on possible exchanges with the Eastern European
Satellites.
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1956 PLAUDITS
1. From Chief, Intelligence Liaison Staff, Operations Coordinating
Board to AD/RR, 28 December 1956, expressing appreciation for the
receipt of a current ORR analysis of Soviet Satellite economic
structure which should prove very useful for the planners and
operators. The writer requested future receipt of similar studies
for the use of the OCB and NSC staffs. (CONFIDENTIAL)
2. From The Commandant, The National War College to the DAD/RR,
10 December 1956 wherein appreciation is expressed. for the DAD/RR's
organization and leadership of a panel discussion on Soviet Econ-
omic Weaknesses. Both the DAD/RR and his ORR associates were
complimented for their penetrating analysis of that subject.
(UNCLASSIFIED)
3. From Clarence B. Randall, Special Assistant to the President to
DCI, 30 July 1956, in which he thanks the DCI for his offer of
cooperation and for the excellent briefing on the economic problems
affecting the Communist Bloc presented to him by the DD/I, AD/RR,
and Ch/C. ('L7NCLASSIFIED)
From Coselor of Embassy, American Embassy, Paris, 25 June 1956,
to AD/RR acknowledging receipt of an ORR geographic stdy on the
geographic and demographic implications of partition as a possible
solution to he Algerian problem. This officer st-la ;ed. that the
Ambassador would be very pleased to receive this study -which agrees
with the conclusions of knowledgeable French saur W es . (S.ECR )
From Chief of Transportation, US Array t, DCI;, Ape~:.'
pressing the appreciation of his office for the c stagy .d..ih
assistance of the Cartography Division which was read T :i da.rlf g
the past two years. General Paul F. Yount stated, t at* 'a `.e staff
of the Cartography Division has made valuable corit-.rib^^^..tiors to
the overall irte .ligence effort of the Transpo ?tat;ion Co-'?-".
("I NCLASS:FLED )
From *? e Planning Staff, Federal Civil Defense A;.-!min i-t:ration to
the AD/RR expressing the ap7.;reciation of Nero Peterson, Federal-
Civil Defense Administrator, for the very valuable briefing on
he s tai, xs of USSR Civil Defense Programs. (SECRE'2
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7. From Deputy Commandant, Industrial College of the Armed Forces to
DCI, 21 March 1956, thanking the DCI for the participation of
representatives of ORR in seminars conducted by that College.
These named representatives were excellent panel members and the
students derived considerable benefit from their contributions.
(UNCLASSIFIED)
8. From Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff, Lo DCI,
20 March 1956. In this Letter of Appreciation the Deputy Director
expressed deep gratitude for the participation of an ORR repre-
sentative (and others) in a NATO intelligence conference. The
writer commented upon the labor and knowledge necessary for suc-
cessful representation at this conference and concludes that their
effective negotiations were made possible by their comprehensive
understanding of the subject under consideration. (UNCLASSIFIED)
9. From the Taiwan Defense Command to the AD/RR reporting the
excellence and usefulness of an ORR study on Chinese Comurunist
military construction and logistic activity in the East China/
Taiwan Straits Area. (SECRET)
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STATISTICAL SUMMARY OF ORR PRODUCTION
and
COORDINATED EIC REPORTS AND SURVEYS
1 January - 31 December 1956
Table 1. Reports Completed
Category Economic
Geographic
Coordination
Total
CIA/RR
20
20
CIA/SC/RR
31
31
PR
25
25
IM
24
24
RA
6
6
MCB
12
12
SC/RA
1
1
(FM) RA
12
12
MP
22
22
SC/MP
3
3
IP _
77
77
SC/IP
22
22
CSM
82
82
NIS Sees.
16
45
61
G
2
2
MR
3
3
GR
33
33
G/E
27
27
G/I
36
36
G/S
9
9
GP/I
87
87
GM
2
2
EIC-R
4
4
EIC-SR
3
3
EIC-S
5
5
-EIC-WGR
23
23
Econ. Def. Projects
31
6
37
TOTALS
407
244
18
669
Table 2. Maps Completed
Geographic 11+3
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Table 3. Projects in Progress
Economic
Geographic
Coordination
In Reproduction
8
4
2
Editorial Review
10
6
1+
In Preparation for
Reproduction
9
4
-
In Division for Revision
6
5
-
Projects Scheduled:
Research in Progress
192
65
17
Research Pending
-
57
-
225
141
Table 4. Maps in Progress
Geographic
In Reproduction
30
In Proof
14-5
In Progress
200
TOTAL
375
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