CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MAJOR GRAIN AREAS OF THE USSR AND GRAIN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 1985-1990

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000303750001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 15, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 30, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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31 CJ
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MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
FROM: 25X1
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Office of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Climate Change in the Major Grain Areas of the
USSR and Grain Production Estimates for 1986-
1990
1. The attached memorandum presents the results of a
climate study of the major grain growing regions of the USSR
during the period 1920 - 1984, and projects grain production for
the 1986 - 1990 period based on "favorable", "most likely", and
"unfavorable" weather scenarios.
2. This assessment was prepared by
Agricultural Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources Division,
Office of Global Issues.
3. Comments and questions are welcome and may be addressed
to the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch, on
Attachment:
Climate Change and Grain Production
in the USSR, 1920 - 1990
GI M 85-10019, January 1985
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SUBJECT: Climate Change in the Major Grain Areas of the USSR and
Grain Production Estimates for 1986 - 1990
OGI/SRD/AAB
(30 January 1985)
Distribution:
1 - Geza Feketekuty, US Special Trade Representative
1 - Ambassador Jack Matlock, NSC
1 - Elmer Klumpp, Agriculture
1 - David Schoonover, Agriculture
1 - Keith Severin, Agriculture
1 - James Donald, Agriculture
1 - Charles Hanrahan, Agriculture
1 - Anton Malish, Agriculture
1 - Alexander Vershbow, State
1 - Kenneth Yalowitz, State
1 - John Danylyk, State
1 - lLt. Larry Waite, HQ/AWS/SYJ
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - ED/DDCI
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - DD/SOVA
1 - SOVA/SE/R
1 - SOVA/EAG
1 - NIO/USSR-EE
1 - NIO/Econ
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
1 - C/OGI/ECD/CM
1 - C/OGI/SRD
5 - OGI/SRD/AAB
1 - C/OGI/EXS/PG
8 - OGI/EXS/PG
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Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
S 0 JAI; 1955
Climate Change and Grain Production in the USSR, 1920 - 1990
Summary
Based on our analysis of long term weather patterns and
trends in fertilizer deliveries to agriculture, we estimate that
Soviet grain production during the 1986-90 period most likely
will average 195 million tons annually--about 60 million tons
below target. With favorable climate and fertilizer delivery at
planned levels, we believe Soviet grain production could average
221 million tons. With adverse weather conditions similar to the
1961-65 period and only a slight increase in fertilizer delivery
above recent levels, we estimate that grain production could
average as low as 165 million tons annually. As with all
statistical assessments, there is a range of error associated with
the three preceding scenarios. However, we calculate that there
is a 95% probability that the average for each scenario is
accurate to t 15 million tons. In all cases, we assume harvested
area will approximate 124 million hectares, roughly equal to the
annual average hectarage for 1979-83.
Precipitation and temperature records of the grain area show
a definite improvement of the climate overall since the 1930s.
Although it is impossible to predict with certainty whether the
climate will continue to improve in the future, trend and
projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide suggest that
temperatures will continue to increase in the grain area. We
also expect precipitation to remain about the same as the present
level or increase slightly during the rest of the eighties. In
our judgment, it is highly unlikely that the precipitation re ime
of the grain area will revert to the drier pre-1960s levels.
Analysis of regional precipitation and temperature pattern
changes during the last ten years suggest problems for the Soviets
in some grain areas. Temperature increases will lengthen the
growing season in the north, but will exacerbate the dry conditions
in the Southern Urals, lower Volga and Kazakhstan--areas which
account for 20 percent of Soviet grain production.
This memorandum was prepared by Agricultural
Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources Division, Office of
Global Issues. Comments may be directed to Chief,
Strategic Resources Division,
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Climate Change and Grain Production in the USSR, 1920 - 1990
This study presents the results of an analysis of weather
conditions in the major grain-growing regions of the USSR during
the period 1920 - 1984. The study identifies climatic change
during this period and projects the potential effects of climate
change and technology on Soviet grain production through 1990. 25X1
Background
The precipitation and temperature regimes of the major
grain-growing regions of the Soviet Union were analyzed using a
computerized weather database c?mpiled from data recorded at 66
Soviet climatological stations. The stations are distributed
nearly evenly across the grain-growing regions of the USSR
(Figure 1). Of the 66 stations, 21 provided data from 1920 to
1949, all provided data from 1950 to 1974, and 36 provided data
from 1975 to 1984.
Good correspondence between annual averages obtained from
the sets of 21, 36, and 66 stations for the period 1950 to 1974
allowed us to use the data from only 21 stations for 1920 - 1949
and 36 stations for 1975 - 1984 with confidence. The grain
region's annual temperature and precipitation averages were
obtained by weighting each station's average by2 the fraction of
total grain area within a surrounding polygon. The annual
precipitation averages of the 21 and 36 station sets were within
2-3 percent of the annual averages of the 66 stations, and the
five-year averages of the 21 and 36 sets were within 1-1.5
percent of the 5-year averages of the 66 stations (Table 1).
Even better correspondence was obtained in the temperature
comparisons.
1 The information sources for this database are "World Weather
Records" published by the old US Weather Bureau and "Monthly
Climatic Data for the World" published by the National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
2 A standard technique called the Thiessen polygon method was
used. The technique assumes that the precipitation at any
station can be applied halfway to the next station in any
direction. The polygons are formed by the perpendicular
bisectors of the line joining nearby stations. The grain area in
each polygon is used to weight the precipitation amount (or
temperature) of the station in the center of the polygon.
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Climatic Change
Precipitation
A general trend of increasing precipitation, starting in the
1930s, is evident from the study of 5-year precipitation averages
(Figure 2). Although precipitation has varied greatly from year
to year, on average it has increased about 20 millimeters (mm)
per decade since the 1940s. The 1970s received about 476mm, 25mm
more than the 1960s, and 71mm (almost 3 inches) more than the dry
1930s. The last 5-year average (1980-1984) shows a slight decrease
to 470mm, but is still considerably above the long-term (1920-1984)
average of 435 mm. The precipitation record shows a definite
improvement in the climate of the grain growing areas.
It is not possible to determine with certainty whether the
precipitation regime will improve in the next five years.
Nevertheless, we can postulate with a fairly high degree of
confidence that the 1986 - 1990 average should not depart greatly
from the 1980-1984 average even though year-to-year precipitation
may continue to vary widely. Analysis of the 1920-1984 records
show that each 5-year average differed from the previous period
by an average of about 18mm, and in the extreme (as in the 1930s)
by about 40mm. Because precipitation for the 1980-1984 period
averaged 470mm, it follows that the precipitation average for the
1986-1990 period might range anywhere from 430 to 510mm, but more
likely will fall somewhere between 450 and 490mm.
Analysis of the grain area shows a regional change in
precipitation during the last 10 years (1975-1984) compared to the
1950-74 period (Figure 3). Most of the grain area experienced an
increase in precipitation. The increase was as much as 75mm in
parts of European RSFSR and eastern Ukraine. Decreases of about
25mm or more have occurred in some important grain producing areas
of the southern Urals and western and eastern Kazakhstan.
Temperature
Analysis of data from the Soviet climatological stations
shows a gradual temperature increase in the grain-growing region,
from a 5-year average of about 4.4?C in the 1940s to about 5.4?C
for the 1980-1984 period (Figure 4). The 1980-1984 period was
the warmest recorded in our weather database, and also contained
the year (1983) with the highest average annual temperature
(6.5?C). Part of this long-term temperature increase may reflect
urbanization (i.e., increased pollution and city heat-island
effects). The rest of this increase may represent the real
increase in air temperature worldwide that is generc l
3 Changing Climate, National Academy of Science, National
Academy Press, 1983. 25X1
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Figure 5 shows the regional change in annual temperature
during the last 10 years (1975-1984) compared to the 1950-1974
period. Temperature increases on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 C are
evident over most of the grain area. A climatic increase in
temperature usually causes a lengthening of the growing period,
which in the future may permit additional areas in Siberia and
northern European RSFSR to come under cultivation, especially
with the hardier rye varieties that are already showing
success. On the other hand, future temperature increases in the
southern Urals, lower Volga, and Kazakhstan would further
exacerbate the already adverse dry climate there.
For the next five year period we expect an increase in the
average temperature over the long term (1920-1984) mean (4.7?C)
as a result of a continued increase of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. The temperature increase however, may not be as
drastic as that experienced during 1980-84 compared to 1975-79.
Continuation of the trend of 5 year averages from the 1940s to
the present would place the average 1986-90 temperature between
5.0? to 5.2?C. We believe this is probably an accurate
representation of the long-term effect of carbon dioxide on
temperature.
Forecasts of Soviet Grain Yields for the 1986-1990 Period
Average grain yields for the 1986-1990 period were estimated
using a regression model (see the appendix for a discussion of
the model). To derive these estimates, we examined various
factors which influence grain production. Statistical analysis
showed that weather factors such as precipitation, temperature,
and the level of fertilizer deliveries to agriculture adequately
capture the variability in Soviet grain yields. As a result, we
developed a set of weather and fertilizer delivery scenarios to use
in estimating future Soviet grain production. 25X1
Selection of Weather Scenarios
Variation in precipitation is the most important single
cause of grain yield variation. Based on precipitation trends
(Figure 2 and Table 1), we estimate with confidence that during
1986-1990 the average amount of precipitation in the grain area
will most likely range between 450 to 490 mm. The trend in
precipitation has been upward from the 1950s to the late 70s.
Although precipitation levels have decreased slightly in the last
5 years, it is too early to tell whether this is the beginning of
a downward trend. The general upward trend in precipitation is
consistent with the findings of the National Academy of Science4
which projects that mean global precipitation will increase due
4 Changing Climate, National Academy Press, 1983.
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to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, the
Academy cannot predict the magnitude and/or location of such
increases. It is unlikely that the climate would suddenly revert
to the lower precipitation levels of the 1940s and 1950s,
although sudden shifts in precipitation levels--as happened in
the 1930s--are still possible.
Based on historical precipitation levels, we chose three
weather scenarios to use in our estimation process.
o For the most likely weather scenario of the 1986-1990
period, we used the precipitation and temperature regimes
of the 1970-1984 period with annual averages of 474mm and
5.0?C.
o For a favorable scenario, we selected the 1976-1980
period which shows the highest 5-year precipitation
average (498 mm) of our 65-year record.
o For an unfavorable and least likely scenario, we have
chosen the 5-year period 1961-1965 which averaged 438 mm,
the lowest of the last 25 years.
Selection of Fertilizer Deliveries Scenarios
After a four-year lull in the mid-seventies, fertilizer
deliveries to agriculture regained their upward momentum after
1979, growing at an average rate of 1.4 million tons per year to
a record 23 million tons in 1983. Such a continued rate of
growth (approximately 6 percent per year) in fertilizer
deliveries during the next six years would fulfill Soviet plans
to deliver 30-32^milPon tons of fertilizer for crops to
Based on the Soviets' past performance, we developed three
fertilizer delivery scenarios.
o For the high or best case scenario, we adopted an annual
6 percent increase in fertilizer delivery. Although this
is the present rate of growth, we doubt that the Soviets
will be able to maintain this rate due to expected lags
in the commissioning of new facilities for the production
of fertilizers, poor management, and the underutilization
of existing facilities.
o For our medium, or most likely scenario, we estimate that
deliveries would increase by about 0.9 million tons per
year, or a 4 percent growth, yielding a total delivery to
5 From Brezhnev's statement at the CPSU Central Committee Plenum
on the Food Program, May 1982.
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agriculture of 29 million tons by 1990.
o For our low fertilizer growth scenario, we used 2 percent
per annum growth rate. This rate was derived from a
model using the last 10 years' deliveries of fertilizer
to agriculture. The model results project a total
delivery of 26 million tons by 1990 for an increase of
only about 0.43 tons per year.
The projected fertilizer deliveries to agriculture for the entire
USSR for the three scenarios described above were translated to
fertilizer delivery rates (kg/ha) for each Republic by dividing
by agricultural area. In all cases, we assume harvested area
will approximate 124 million hectares, roughly equal to the
annual average hectarage for 1979-83.
Projected Yields and Production
Grain yields and production to 1990 were calculated with the
regression model using the three fertilizer scenarios and the
actual weather variables for 1961-1965, 1976-1980, and 1970-1984
to project grain yields typical of unfavorable, favorable, and
most likely weather scenarios (Table 2). 25X1
The model forecasts that, given what we consider the most
likely weather and fertilizer scenario, the USSR's average grain
yield during 1986-1990 will be 15.7 centners per hectare
(ce/ha). Using a harvested area of 124.4 million hectares, this
equates to an average annual production of 195 million tons.
Given this scenario, t e model projects that there is a
95 percent probability that Soviet grain production during 1986-
1990 will average between 180 million and 210 million tons. 25X1
With a favorable weather scenario similar to 1976-1980 and
the high fertilizer delivery levels that the Soviets are striving
to achieve, Moscow could average 17.8 ce/ha or 221 million tons,
with a 95% probability that the average will be more than
206 million tons but less than 236 million tons. 25X1
An unfavorable weather scenario typical of 1961-1965 (the
least likely of the three scenarios to occur) and low fertilizer
deliveries growth rates could plunge average grain production to
6 A best fit rearession technique was used to make these
calculations.
7 The 95% probability range is approximately defined by the
model's estimate t two standard errors of estimate, or within 15
million tons of the projected average of 195 million tons. One
standard error of estimate was calculated to be 7.5 million
tons.
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165 million tons, with less than a 5% probability that it would
be above 180 million tons. 25X1
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Appendix
A Simple Regression Model for Estimating Grain Yields of the USSR
The purpose of deriving a grain yield regression model is to
estimate grain yields during the 1986-90 period under different
weather and technology growth scenarios. The model, therefore,
has to be a function of variables which measure the contribution
of weather and technology to grain yields.
Figure 6 illustrates the historical all-grain yields, total
precipitation in the grain area during the growing period
(October-August), and the average amount of fertilizer (kg/ha)
delivered to agriculture in the USSR. The graph shows a
considerable increase in yields from the mid-sixties to the late
seventies, with simultaneous increases in fertilizer delivery and
levels of precipitation. With a few exceptions, there is a
general correspondence between high and low points of
precipitation and yield. Thus, precipitation and fertilizer
delivery rates are likely candidates for describing grain yields
by means of a regression equation.
Because of the paucity of published Soviet grain data since
1975, our grain yield equations were derived for large areas
covering one or more Republics and having sufficient climatic
stations to adequately describe weather parameters. For example,
from 1975-80 only Republic grain yields were published by the
Soviets; after 1980 practically no grain yield information was
published.
We used the RSQUARE procedure of the Statistical Analysis
System (SAS) computer software package to narrow down the
selection of variables for the predictive model. The RSQUARE
procedure performs all possible regressions for a dependent
variable (grain yield, in this instance) and a collection of
independent variables, and gives the r-square value for each
model. With the selected parameters, we then derived the yield
equations using the General Linear Model (GLM) procedure of
SAS.
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Table 3 lists the variables tested by the RSQUARE routine
and the equations finally adopted. An interesting result of the
selection process was that fertilizer delivery rates variable
(FERTH) produced higher r-squares than the variab;e YEAR, a term
traditionally used as a surrogate for technology. Fertilizer
application rates to grain area would be an even better parameter
to use in the regression, but these data are not generally
available at the Republic level. We found no improvement in
estimating Soviet all-grain yields by using separate winter and
spring grain yield equations. We therefore elected to use the
all-grain yield equations for the combinations of Republics shown
in Table 3, which also gave better results than one single
equation derived for the entire Soviet Union.
The major assumptions inherent in the use of the regression
model for forecasting grain production in the 1986-1990 period
are:
o That projected increases in fertilizer deliveries
represent the major contribution of technology to grain
yield increases.
o That any changes in the mix of grains planted, or in
other agricultural practices such as the amount of
cropland under irrigation, will take place gradually over
time and therefore will be included in the model variable
representing the delivery of fertilizer per hectare of
agricultural land (FERTH).
8 We tested three variables for describing the technology
contribution to yield: Year, total fertilizers delivered to
agriculture (FERTD), and average fertilizers delivered per
hectare of agricultural land (FERTH) from Soviet published
data. We also tested cross terms such as FERTH*PREC to detect
any interaction between fertilizer response and precipitation
amounts, and non-linear terms such as log (FERTH) to describe
diminishing yield returns at high fertilizer applications
levels. In all instances, except one, we found no significant
increase in r-square when crossterms or other non-linear terms
were added to the candidate models. Only in Belorussia and in
the Baltics, where fertilizer application levels are among the
highest in the country, did we find that the use of a log (FERTH)
term produced significantly higher r-squares.
9 Fertilizer delivered per hectare of agricultural land (FERTH)
have increased nearly linearly with time (FERTH and YEAR show a
correlation coefficient of 0.98). Therefore FERTH, in addition
to being directly related to grain yield increases, is also a
surrogate for other technological improvements which have
gradually been introduced during the last 25 years and have also
been responsible for grain yield increases.
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o That the mean square error of our regression model
adequately describes the errors of the model.
Figure 7 and Table 4 show how the model's estimated yields
compare with the actual yields for the year 1960-1980, the period
used to derive the model. Also plotted on Figure 7 are the model
estimates for 1981-1984 compared to CIA estimates. The model
fits the observations with an average error of 1.1 ce/ha and a
mean square error of 1.4 ce/ha for individual yea 18 and 0.6
centners per hectare (ce/ha) for a 5-year period. The model is
able to explain 80 percent of the variation in the all-grain
yields.
The model's errors may be caused by a combination of
factors. The first is the gross nature of the model itself.
Because of paucity of data, it has to use meteorological
variables averaged for relatively long periods (4 to 10 months)
and for very large areas (as large as the RSFSR). Second,
although the years used in the model (1960-1980) are the most
relevant in terms of describing recent Soviet agricultural and
climate changes, they may not be sufficient to capture the range
of errors inherent in the model. Third, the variables in the
model may be related to yield in a more complex, non-linear and
interactive way than represented by our simple linear model.
Finally, there are certainly other variables such as short-term
weather events which influence yield but could not be included in
the model.
10 The mean square error for a 5-year period is 1.4/ /r =
0.6. Three years (1971, 1973, and 1976) show particularly large
model errors of the order of 2-3 ce/ha. An investigation of the
causes of these large errors will be performed by AAB in the
coming months.
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1
1920
375
1
1)20
5.3
2
1)21
335
2
1921
4.6
3
1922
443
(394)
3
1922
4.5
(4.9)
4
1923
413
4
1923
4.9
5
1924
432
2~
4
7
9
1926
389
47'
6
1925
6.)
8
1927
429
(433)
7
1926
4.6
9
1928
491
8
1927
5.0
(4.6)
10
1929
389
--- -
.
9
16
1928
1929
3.5
3
8
11
1930
431
11
1930
.
5.1
12
1931
412
12
1931
4.1
13
1932
417
(425)
13
1932
5.2
(4.5)
14
1933
459
14
1933
4.2
15
1934
405
11,
1.
16
1935
403
16
1935
5.0
17
1936
369
17
1936
4.8
18
19
1937
1938
433
359
(385)
16
1937
5.4
(5.2)
20
1939
363
.
19
20
1938
5.7
1
22
1940
1941
4
472
21
1940
4.3
23
1942
429
(421)
22
1941
4.0
,
24
1943
383
23
1942
2.7
(4.3)
25
1944
406
.
.
24
1943
1 44
4.7
26
94
4
27
1946
393
26
1945
3.5
28
1947
419
(407)
27
1946
5.0
29
1948
422
28
1947
3.9
(4.6)
30
1949
396
.
29
1948
5.7
,
1
32
1950
1951
442
351
449
376
448
377
31
4
1950
4.3
4.7
4.
33
34
1952
19
385
(406) 409
(413)
412
(419)
32
33
1951
1952
4.9
4.9
(4.5)
4.9
4.6
(4.6)
4.9
4
8
(4
5)
35
53
1954
446
405
452
390
455
400
34
1953
4.8
4.8
.
4.8
.
6
37
1
955
1956
442
476
443
438
--
36
1955
3o2
5.2
3.6
5.1
3.5
5.1
38
1957
426
471
(445) 420
(442)
466
414
(441)
37
1956
3.3
3.7
3.7
39
1958
480
481
487
38
1957
5.3
(4.8)
S.1
(4.8)
5.1
(4.6)
40
1959
397
393
399
39
1958
4.8
4.7
4.7
1
196
4
4
40
1959
5-3
5.2
5.2
42
1961
479
462
461
41
1960
3.6
3.9
3.9
43
1962
459
(444) 430
(443)
439
(449)
42
1961
5.4
5.4
5.4
44
1963
416
407
417
43
1962
5.8
(4.9)
5.6
(4.11)
5.7
(4.8)
45
1964
427
459
469
44
1963
4.8
4.8
4.6
4
96
37
4 2
4
1964
4 7
4 3
4.4
47
1
1966
5)5
540
516
46
1965
5.3
4.9
48
1967
454
(454) 459
(463)
451
(453)
47
46
1966
5.6
5.4
5.5
49
1966
453
454
444
1967
4.
(4.7)
4.5
(4.6)
4.6
(4
(4.7)
50
1969
454
463
450
49
1966
53 .3
5.2
5.3
51
1970
606
85
4
1 69
2.7
2.9
2.7
52
1971
478
462
468
51
1970
4.9
4.
53
1972
438
(487) 425
(478)
441
(474)
52
53
1971
1
4.7
4.6
4.6
54
1973
453
474
465
972
5.1
(5.0)
4.9
(4.9)
4.7
(4 .9)
55
19 74
459
448
447
54
1973
5.4
5.2
5.0
56
1975
.
401
e6
1
-924
1
5.0
5.1
S7
1976
462
1975
58
1977
490
(478)
57
1976
3.6
59
1978
545
5
45
58
1977
4.2
(4.7)
60
1979
414
59
1978
4.7
61
1980
f, 0
1979
4.6
62
1981
47)
61
1)80
4.1
63
1982
489
(470)
62
1991
5.8
64
1983
464
63
1982
5.2
(5.4)
65
1984
431
64
1183
5.5
65
1984
5.3
Table 1. Precipitation and temperature averages for the USSR grain area
. Values
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SECRET
USSR: All-grain average yields and production
estimated for the 1986 - 1990 period with three
different climate and fertilizer scenarios
Unfavorable Weather Scenario
Average
Range of
Increase in Fertilizer
Production
Production
Deliveries to Agriculture'
Yields (ce/ha) (m tons)2
95% probability3
Low
13.3
165
150
- 180
Medium
13.6
169
154
- 184
High
14.2
177
162
- 192
Favorable Weather Scenario
Low
16.8
209
194
- 224
Medium
17.2
214
199
- 229
High
17.8
221
206
- 236
Most Likely Weather
Low
15.3
190
175
- 205
Medium
15.7
195
180
- 210
High
16.2
202
187
- 217
1 Low, medium, high increases in fertilizer deliveries to agriculture
correspond to approximately 2, 4, and 6 percent increases per year.
2 Production is estimated by assuming an average grain area of 124 million
hectares, similar to the 1979 - 1983 period.
3 The 95% probability range is approximately defined by the average t 2
standard errors of estimate.
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SECRET
PREC((4_9) ~C(10-3)
FERTD4-9) LTEMP n-'i OG(3
FERTH LOG(gERTH)
YEAR YEAR
(FERTH)x(PREC)
Variables Tested By The RSQUARE Procedure
to Develop a Yield Regression Model
PREC (1110-gg9))) PREC(10-8) P~(4-7)
TEMP
SQRTiF~RTD) TEMP(10-8) TEMP(4-7)
SCRT(FERTH)
EQUATIONS SELECTED For Estimating All Grain Yields
(1) RSFSR
(2) KAZAKHSTAN
R2
: YIELDr = -3.97 + 0.0875 PREC(4_7) + 0.0141 FERTH 0.80
YIELDk = 3.52 + 0.0472 PRECM1l8) - 0.5367 TEMP(4_7)
+0.1277Fam
(3) UKRAINE + MDLDAVIA : YIELD- = 25.44 + 0.0313 PREC 4-91 + 1.334 TEMP _3)
u - 1.156 TEMP(4-7) + 0.0544 FERTH 0.81
(4) BELORUSSIA + BALTICS : YIELDb = -15.069 -1.1584 TEMP(4_7) + 9.519 LOG(FERTH) 0.83
(5) YIELDp = (Ar YIELD +Ak YIELDk+Au YIELD +Ab YIELDb)/At
where Ar, Ak, Au, Ab are the grain areas, and At = Ar + Ak + Au + Ab
(6) USSR : YIELD = -1.472 + 1.104 YIELDp
PREC - average region precipitation in m weighted by grain area.
TEMP - average region temperature in ?C weighted by grain area.
FERTD - total fertilizer delivered to agriculture in million tons.
FERTH - average fertilizer delivered per hectare of agricultural land, in kg.
YIELDr - average region grain yield of major grain area in centners per hectare.
NOTE: Subscripts refer to first and last months of period averaged for
temperature (TEMP), or totaled for precipitation (PREC). For example,
PREC(10-3) refers to total precipitation during October-March.
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SECRET
USSR: All Grains Yields and Production,
Actual and Model Estimates, 1960 - 1984
Actual
Model
Yield
Production Yiie
Production
Ce a
million Tons Ce a
Million Tons
1961
10.7
130.8
11.6
141.8
62
10.9
140.2
10.7
137.7
63
8.3
107.5
(130.3)**
8.5
110.4
(133.7)
64
11.4
152.1
11.2
149.3
65
9.5
121.1
10.1
129.3
66
13.7
171.2
14.4
179.7
67
12.1
147.9
12.2
149.0
68
14.0
169.5
(167.5)
14.8
179.8
(169.4)
69
13.2
162.4
12.6
154.6
1970
15.7
186.8
15.4
183.7
71
15.4
181.2
13.5
159.2
72
14.0
168.2
12.9
155.1
73
17.6
222.5
(181.6)
14.2
180.0
(167.0)
74
15.4
195.7
14.7
187.0
75
11.0
140.1
12.0
153.5
76
17.5
223.8
15.5
198.1
77
15.0
195.7
15.7
204.6
78
18.5
237.4
(205.5)
18.5
237.7
(208.8)
79
14.2
179.2
15.6
197.1
1980
14.9
189.1
16.3
206.3
81
*
*
13.0
163.3
82
*
*
15.9
195.5
83
*
*
16.3
196.9
84
*
*
14.5
173.3
* Soviets did not report grain yield and production after 1981.
** Values in parentheses are 5-year averages.
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SECRE'd'
Length of climatic record:
1920 - 1974
o 1951 - 1984
? 1951 - 1974
Figure 1. Location of climatic stations in and around major grain area.
cr?rp1T
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 cFrPr. r
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PLOT OF ANNUAL PNLCIPITITJUI IN RAJOR GRAIN AREA OF USSR
200 + I 1 1 1 1
1
1
1 1 1 I 1 1
I
1
1 I I I 1 I
i
I
I I 1 I I I
I
1
?---+------------------- +--------------------------------------- +------------------- ?------------------- ?-------------------+-- --- -
1920 1930 1940 1950 I "G 1970 1014
used respectively for the periods 1920 - 1949, 1950 - 1974, and 1975 - 1984.
Figure 2. Annual average of precipitation (Oct - Sept) for the Soviet grain area. Dots joined
by dashed lines represent 5-year averages. 21 stations, 66 stations, 36 stations averages were
SECRET
-------------
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Figure 3. Change in mean annual precipitation (mm) for the period 1975 - 1984
compared to the period 1950 - 1974. 25X1
SECRET
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 SURE T
PLOT Of ANNUAL TE Approved For Release 2009/09/15: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303750001-8
1920 -----------------1930 -------------------194-----------------1950 --------------------------------------- _1960 1970 1990--
----------------- I- I -------------------
I
I
I
I
I
I
I I
I
I
I
I
I I
I
I
I
I
I I
I
i
I
I
1 I
Figure 4. Annual average temperature (Oct - Sept) for the Soviet grain area. Dots joined by dashed lines
represent 5-year averages. 21 stations, 66 stations, 36 stations averages were used respectively for the
periods 1920 - 1949, 1950 - 1974, and 1975 - 1984.
--------------
I~ -1 A
71 A
A 4% A IN
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Figure 5. Change in mean annual temperature (?C) for the period 1975 - 1984
compared to the period 1950 - 1974.1 25X1
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/15: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303750001-8
ALL 6HA1N5 YIELDS (CE/HA) -USSR-
14S 0
400
; I
C[IG1rl~l~n.Yll ? - ( -------------
; f .
M
16
---------
I
15
+
14
+-----------
D 13
+
C
E
~
/
12
+-----------
H
I
A
I
11
+
10
+-----------
9
+
I
8
+--------
------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1374 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984
Figure 6. Growing Period (October - August) precipitation for the Soviet grain area, all grain Yields
,
and average fertilizer delivered per hectare of agricultural land. All grain yields after 1980 (A) are
CIA estimates.
s
---- -- ----- -----
--------------
r I r
~? '~
400 awnw
3SO
---i-------`A,-------------
I
I (A) (A) ~
A I
- 00 i
-----------t--- 80 Kb'NA
A
--------------
cAV
?t.
I--------------I--------------I--------------I--------------I--------------I--------------I---------------?--=-
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 SECRET-
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V &W4 VL AWW.74a-spA1 .7snDUL YO&V as v
II
19 ?I
II
II
II
18 +I
II
II
II
17
11 i
N .q
16
M .
M ??
M ' i ?N
cc/loll
r' 0
t4 +1 :Q; 0
Ii :I \ti:/ 11 F.I
II
II
12 +I
II
11
11 +I
11
11
10 +I
11
II
II
------------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1963 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984
YEAR
Figure 7. Comparison of observed all-grain yields (0) and model's yield (M). After 1980 the model's
yields are compared with the AAB yield estimates shown as dots.
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