GOLDEN TRIANGLE OPIUM PRODUCTION, 1985

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 8, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 24, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
STAT
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
Central Intelligence Agency
NGA Review Completed
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution List
SUBJECT: Golden Triangle Opium Production, 1985
1. The attached memorandum, Southeast Asia: Drought Cuts
Opium Production, presents our assessment of Golden Triangle
opium output in 1985. We estimate drought reduced opium
production by over 20 percent despite an increase in poppy
cultivation in the region.
2. This memorandum was prepared by analysts from the
Strategic Narcotics/Eurasia-Africa Branch, Office of Global
Issues and from the Directorate Analytical Support Group.
3. Questions and comments are welcome and may be addressed
to the Chief, Terrorism/Narcotics Analysis Division, OGI, on
Attachment:
Southeast Asia: Drought Cuts Opium
Production GI M 85-10213,
October 1985
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
Central kit %MW Agncy
Southeast Asia: Drought Cuts Opium Production ~ 25X1
Summary
Drought reduced opium production in the Golden Triangle of
Southeast Asia for the 1984-85 crop season to an estimated 625
metric tons, a more than 20-percent decline from the 800 metric
tons estimated for 1984. Burma, the region's dominant producer,
accounted for about 490 tons, a drop of over 240 tons from last
year. Thailand produced about 40 metric tons of opium, down
slightly from 1984. In Laos, however, we estimate 1985
production at 95 tons, up from an estimated 25 tons in 1984.
This year's shortfall is unlikely to affect the amount of
heroin entering the world market from the Golden Triangle because
traffickers can draw on stocks or divert opium from domestic
use. Although another bad year could deplete regional opium
stockpiles, we expect production to rebound this coming crop
season if weather is favorable. Piecemeal eradication operations
in Burma and Thailand have not deterred growers from expanding
the area under cultivation, and rising opium prices will
stimulate cultivation.
This memorandum was prepared by Strategic
Narcotics/Eurasia-Africa Branch, Ottice o Global Issues, and
Analytical Support Group. This analysis is based on
,.25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
information available as of 1 October 1985. Comments and queries
are welcome and may be addressed to the Chief, Terrorism/Narcotics
Analysis Division
GI M 85-10273
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
Background
The Golden Triangle in Southeast Asia--the tri-border area
of Burma, Thailand, and Laos--has been a major supplier of heroin
to the international market since the early 1970's (see Map).
Although much of the region's opium is consumed locally, the
Thailand-Burma border area is a major refining center for heroin
bound for the United States, Europe, and other parts of Asia.
The governments of Thailand and Burma have gradually intensified
programs to destroy refineries, interdict narcotics caravans, and
eradicate poppy fields. These efforts have occasionally
disrupted the narcotics trade but have not yet significantly
reduced opium cultivation. 25X1
A drought this year has apparently accomplished what
government enforcement programs could not. At the beginning of
the 1984-85 season, all signs indicated another bumper opium crop
comparable to last year's harvest of 800 metric tons. Trafficking
groups were encouraging farmers to expand cultivation, and
weather was excellent during planting in August and September
1984. A subsequent drought, however, ended any prospects for a
large opium crop. Even though precipitation in the Golden
Triangle is normally very low--from one-half inch to one inch per
month--some rain is necessary as the poppy matures. This year no
rain fell in many areas during the critical flowering period in
December and January. the area most 25X1
affected by the drought extends from the northern Shan State,
near Lashio and Loimaw, to western Thailand. The resulting poor 25X1
yields limited the opium harvest to some 625 tons, down more than
20 percent from 1984.
Burma--Drought Damages Crop in Shan State
The drought severely damaged the Burmese opium crop. We
estimate production in Burma this year at about 490 metric tons,
down more than 240 metric tons from last year's crop (see Table
1, Appendix). The most intense cultivation was found in the Shan
State east of the Salween River and north of Kengtung,
historically the main source of opium for the heroin refineries
at the northern end of the Thailand-Burma border.
expanded poppy cultivation just east of Taunggyi in the Shan
State. Intense cultivation in this area is surprising because
the Burmese Government exercises control there and should be able
to police it. In the Kachin State, cultivation was concentrated
along the Chinese border, and the number of fields declined
rapidly away from the border. Many growers in the Kachin State
have located their fields near the border to have better access
to Chinese migrant laborers who cross the border to plant and
harvest the opium crop.
We had good information from which to derive our ester
for Burma, but the drought greatly complicated the task_I
GI M 85-10273
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
I I
The production estimate was derived by calculating output
from fields visible on imagery--productive fields--and adding to
this amount the inferred output from fields we believe were too
stressed to be visible. we calculate that
productive poppy fields totaled about 46,000 hectares.
Collateral sources indicated only slightly below normal yields in
most of the Kachin State and in the lower Shan State,
We estimated yields for tese
productive areas to be between 9 and 10 kilograms per hectare,
down slightly from last year. Using an average of 9.5 kilograms
per hectare, production on the observed 46,000 hectares was about
440 metric tons.
Burmese tarmers were planting at least as much area in
poppy as last year, which we estimated at 71,000 hectares. We
used the difference between this year's observed hectarage and
last year's total hectarage--about 25,000 hectares--as a
substitute for the size of the stressed areas.
in the drought stricken areas of the northern Shan
a e, near angyan and Lashio, yields fell below one kilogram
per hectare in some areas and were consistently below 4 kilograms
per hectare. We chose a figure of 2 kilograms per hectare as
representative of yields obtained from the severely stressed
areas, which gives an inferred production of about 50 metric tons
for these areas.
We judge that Burmese Government claims that it manually
eradicated some 8,000 hectares in the Shan State are wildly
exaggerated. In our opinion, the Burmese Government could not
conscript the manpower necessary to carry out massive eradication
operations in an area like the Shan State, where terrain is rough
and insurgents are active. For this reason we have not
subtracted the reported eradication figures from estimated
hectarage.
Laos--Expanding Production
We estimate Laos produced about 95 metric tons on a
cultivated area of 24,000 hectares, both figures much larger than
those we have calculated in recent years.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
the hectarage estimate for the 25X1
whole country was extrapolated from data for the western half of
the growing area. This year, for the first time, we conducted a
systematic sampling of the entire northern half of Laos, and the
sample showed dense clusters of fields in Houaphan Province in
the northeast. This area accounted for a significant share of
Lao opium production until the mid-1960's, but past field
reporting had suggested it was only a minor source after the
Pathet Lao assumed military control there. We consider it
unlikely that cultivation of this magnitude occurred in one year,
and therefore we conclude that past estimates understated Lao
cultivation. I)GV4
several other factors indicate expanded poppy
cultivation in Laos over the past year:
')r-V1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
the central government is
pressuring the provinces to become financially self-
supporting, and increased cultivation of opium for
export is a quick and inexpensive way of obtaining
additional revenue.
? Rising prices for illicit opium at the Thailand-Burma
border make it a more lucrative cash crop for Lao
farmers.
Laos has become
more popular as a site for heroin processing because of
the ongoing conflict between major trafficking groups on
the Thailand-Burma border. Refiners operating in Laos
are likely to seek local supplies of opium.
Cultivation was most intense in Houaphan Province but we
also observed significant amounts of poppy in the traditional
growing areas of Xiangkhouang, Louangphrabang, and Phongsali
Provinces. The opium crop in these areas was hurt by drought
production estimate on the observed fields, and therefore did not
adjust for severely stressed fields that might not have been
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
We lack) _ _ (planting
intentions and a historical data base on growing areas in Laos,
making any attempt to estimate stressed hectarage highly
speculative.
the Thai yield figure--4 kilograms per hectare. We
juage is a good approximation because terrain and cultivation
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
practices are similar in both countries and
yields.
the drought may have been
less severe in Laos than in Thailand, but we judge Lao farmers'
yields were not sufficiently higher to change the estimate.
Thailand--Cultivation Up
Thai growers harvested just under 40 tons of
opium, down slightly from 1984.
25X1
25X1
25X1
2Al
We judge the decline was due to the drought,
total cultivated area rose some 27 percent
to about 9,650 hectares. Chiang Mai Province, the largest
producer, registered a 32 percent increase in cultivated area,
and cultivation in the other two leading opium producing
provinces--Chiang Rai and Mae Hong Son--was also up sharply.. Doi
Chang Highland Unit in western Chiang Rai Province, the site of a
joint Thai-West German agricultural development project, showed a
28 percent increase in area cultivated and accounted for over 11
percent of Thai production. All of the major producing highland
units are well located to supply the nearby refineries along the
Burma border. The increase in poppy cultivation represents more
intense cultivation in traditional growing areas rather than
expansion into new ones. Although poppy cultivation shifts
somewhat among highland units, the general location has changed
little over the last several years.
Thai poppy farmers have experienced a long-term downward
trend in yields; yields have fallen
from 8 kilograms per hectare to 4 kilograms per hectare over the
last five years. Government policies against slash-and-burn
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
cultivation are causing farmers to overwork many of their
existing fields, leading to soil depletion. Farmers try to
compensate for the loss in soil fertility by increasing their use
of fertilizers. This year, however, the increased application of
fertilizer coupled with the lack of rain probably chemically
damaged many fields and further reduced yields in some areas.
The area under opium cultivation in northern Thailand
continues to expand despite government-sponsored crop
substitution programs, education, and the threat of increased
eradication. We judge at least three major reasons account for
this:
? Hill-tribe people continue to migrate into Thailand from
Burma and Laos. Opium is the traditional cash crop of
these people, and its easy marketability makes it a low-
risk cultivation choice in their new surroundings.
? Economic development projects in northern Thailand, by
improving roads and providing agricultural inputs such
as fertilizer and credit, have given farmers access to
markets farther south and allowed them to shift
production from subsistence crops to cash crops. Opium
is still the most profitable of these cash crops.
? As competition among traffickers on the Thailand-Burma
border intensifies, opium refiners are seeking to
broaden their sources of supply,
traffickers are
encouraging expanded opium production and in many cases
are forward contracting with producers before planting
to guarantee supply.
This year's reduced harvest is not likely to diminish the
flow of opium products from the Golden Triangle to the
international market (see Table 2). Traffickers can draw down
stockpiles or divert opium from domestic use to maintain their
share of the world heroin market. The small crop is likely to
stimulate expanded poppy cultivation in the Golden Triangle next
year. Stockpiles need replenishing, and prices for opium and
refined narcotics are already risin along the Thailand-Burma
border, Another season of bad
weather, however, could create a serious shortage of opium in the
region, exhaust stockpiles, and send prices skyrocketing as
happened in 1980.
Both Thailand and Burma are planning intensified drug
control programs which could damage the opium trade over the next
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
few years. The Thai Army plans to expand manual eradication,
and will target those
areas benetitting trom crop substitution programs. The Army has
set an ambitious goal of reducing opium production by 30
percent. This may cause unrest among hill-tribe farmers, but we
judge the King has grown more receptive to stronger enforcement
policies and is unlikely to curtail the program. More aggressive
eradication may disrupt production next year. Over time farmers
are likely to take countermeasures, such as intercropping poppy
with other crops for concealment, planting in more remote sites,
or seeking assistance from trafficking groups to combat
enforcement.
In Burma, the government is planning an ambitious US funded
aerial eradication campaign in the Shan State. For the program
to be successful, the military must overcome the logistics
problems of providing maintenance and security for several
airplanes operating over insurgent-controlled terrain.
Trafficking groups, several of which have the firepower to shoot
down a low-flying aircraft, will fight back if the campaign
cuts significantly into production, and the Burmese Government
must be prepared to bear the losses likely to accompany such a
military operation. If the government remains committed to the
program over the next several years and expands it to cover areas
of intense cultivation east of the Salween River, it may be able
to do substantial damage to the Burmese opium sources closest to
the refineries on the Thailand-Burma border. We expect
traffickers to respond by encouraging production in more remote
areas of the Shan and Kachin States.
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
Table 1 Estimate of 1985 Opium Production
in Burma and Laos
Potential Poppy Growing 21,600 15,700
Area (1000 ha)
Area Imaged (1000 ha) 1,140 146
Productive Areas
Number of observed 6,800 436
Fields
Estimated Number of 90,000 47,000
Fields
Average Field .51 .51
Size (ha)
Estimated Hectares 46,000 24,000
Yield (kg/ha) 9-10 4
Output (metric tons) 440 94
Stressed Areas
Estimated Hectarage 25,000 -
Yield (kg/ha) 2 -
Output (metric tons) 50 (mean) -
Total Output (kg)
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
Table 2 Opium Production in Southeast Asia
25X1
ESTIMATED
NUMBER OF
PRODUCTIVE
FIELDS
AVERAGE
FIELD SIZE
ESTIMATED AREA OPIUM
CULTIVATED YIELD
ESTIMATED
PRODUCTION
(1000 fields)
(ha)
(1000 ha) (
kg/ha)
(mt)
BURMA
1983
106.0
0.52
55.1
10.0
551.0
1984
138.0
0.51
71.0
11.0
730.0
1985
90.1
0.51
71.0
9.5
490.0
LAOS
1983
13.7
0.15
2.1
10.0
21.0
1984
7.3
0.51
3.7
6.5
24.0
1985
46.9
0.51
23.9
3.9
94.0
Thailand
1983
7.1
0.52
3.7
10.0
37.0
1984
16.3
0.51
8.3
5.2
43.2
1985
- -
9.6
3.9
38.1
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1983
127.0
60.9
609.0
1984
161.6
83.0
797.0
1985
104.5
625.0
Notes: (1) The 1984 production figures for Burma reflects claimed Burmese eradication.
(2) it is thought the 1983 Thailand estimate of25X1
the number of fields is too lower yield/ha is too high, but the estimate
of opium production is about right.
(3) The 1985 estimate of cultivated area in Burma includes productive fields (46,000
hectares) and stressed fields (25,000 hectares). The yield figure refers to the
observed fields.
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
 Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1
Poppy Cultivation in the Golden Triangle, 1985
413 h ubta'n,;
ImphaI
Bay
of
Bengal
,aran\
Pa-an
,State
Intensity of poppy
cultivation
High
Medium
Low
- Internal administrative
boundary
Provinces are named when they
differ from administrative center.
Nan r , Xa naboufiit;,C! p
Boundary representation is
not ...representation
Approved For Release 2009/10/08: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405330001-1