ADDITIONAL MATERIAL FOR THE JULY 25 MEETING OF THE USC/FAR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00985R000100160005-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2005
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: July 18, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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DEPARTMENT OF STATE
USC/FAR Doc. No. 32
July 18, 1973
MEMORANDUM
TO:
FROM:
INR/XR - E. Raymond PlatiUSC/FAR Executive Secretary
SUBJ: Additional Material for the July 25 Meeting of the USC/FAR
This is a follow-up to my memorandum of July 10 (USC/FAR Doc.
No. 31). That memorandum informed you of the time (2:30 p.m., Wednesday,
July 25) and place (Main State, Room 1105) for our next meeting and trans-
mitted some pieces of the Third Consolidated Research Plan. Most impor-
tant of the latter was PART III of the Third Plan on which your comments
were solicited.
That. earlier memorandum also informed you that prior to the meeting
we would send out a Secretariat draft of PART II of the Plan dealing with
USC/FAR Research Objectives. PART II starts on p. 4 of the attachment,
the first three pages being PART I, "Summary of Major Points." Thus you
have in hand drafts of all three parts of the Third Plan plus the Appendix.
(See the Table of Contents preceding PART III.)
As indicated earlier, the major item of business for the July 25
meeting will be to discuss new USC/FAR Research Objectives and to agree
on those, if any, to be included in the Third Plan. PART II, Section C
of the attachment contains three new suggested objectives. If there are
additional ones you would like considered, please forwaryour drafts
to me at least 24 hours before the meeting to permit ytime for reproduction
and agenda construction.
Draft copies of the three parts of the Plan (plus Appendix) now in
your hands are in short supply. Our business at the meeting will be
greatly expedited if you bring your copies with you.
Again, if you have questions concerning these and earlier prepara-
tions for the meeting, please call me at 632-1342 or Warren Reynolds at
632-0804.
Attachment:
As stated.
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PART I
SUMMARY OF MAJOR POINTS
Trends and Emphases:
Like its predecessors, this Third USC/FAR Consolidated Research
Plan for FY-1974+75 presents a multi-faceted description of the foreign
affairs research plans projected by individual Member Agencies. This
description is presented in Part III. Some of the more important trends
and emphases are summarized below.
-- As a group the USC/FAR Member Agencies plan for FY-74+75 to
increase the level of their external research effort_ty 11.5%
over that planned for FY-73+74. The total for FY-74+75 is
$54,599,000.
-- AID and State both show planned funding increases; Defense
and ACDA show decreases; USIA remains essentially steady.
-- In terms of planned level of effort for FY-74+75, the Member
Agencies rank as follows: AID (79.9%), Defense (12.7%),
State (5.1%), USIA (2.2%), ACDA (0.1%).
-- Leaving aside global or multi-regional studies (47.6% of the
total USC/FAR effort) and those focussing on the U.S. (0.7%),
the remaining eight regions rank as follows: Africa (28.4%),
American Republics (9.4%), East Asia (5.4%), USSR (2.3%),
Western Europe (2.0%), PRC (1.8%), NESAA11.5%), Eastern Europe
(0.8%). This ordering, very similar to that in the Second Plan,
reflects the large role played by AID in the total USC/FAR fund-
ing picture. I"
-- Between them, the USSR .and PRC will receive 4.1% of the USC/FAR's
attention, up from about 3.5% in the Second Plan in which USC/FAR
research objectives called for various actions to improve research
on these countries.
-- The study of affairs within foreign nations will receive 84.3%
of the USC/FAR's research attention; the study of relations
between and among nations will receive the remaining 15.7%.
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-- Between the Second and Third Plans there is an absolute as well
as relative decline in research on international relations;
whereas research on international political-social and military
relations each show a steep decline (43.1% and 37.2% respectively),
that on international economic relations shows a small (3.4%)
increase.
-- State, USIA and the NSC Staff are. the three Member Agencies that
devote more of their resources to the study of international
relations than to national affairs. AID's program is heavily
weighted (93.3%) toward the study of national affairs.
-- Concerning studies that focus on the national affairs of foreign
countries, economic, political-social, and military affairs will
receive attention roughly in the ratio of 11:10:1; not too much
different from the Second Plan where the ratio was 13:11:1.
-- As for research on international relations, economic, political-
social, and military relations will receive attention roughly
in the ratio of 2:1:2; a substantial shift from the Second Plan
where the ratio was 2:2:3.
-- Across all regions, economic, political-social and military
matters--both national and international--receive attention
roughly in the ratio of 5:4:1; a substantial decline in the
emphasis given military matters in the Second Plan where the
ratio was 3:3:1.
-- Across all regions, science-technology matters--both national
and international--receive only 0.4% of the USC/FAR's planned
research effort.
-- Contracts remain by far the most favored instrument of research
support for the USC/FAR agencies as a group, accounting for
65.7% of all projected support; grants to institutions (primarily
by AID) account for another 26.8% of the total.
-- Depending upon the assumptions used, the USC/FAR favors applied
research over basic research in the ratio 58/42 or 69/31.
New USC/FAR Research Objectives:
In the Second Plan, the Member Agencies agreed on six USC/FAR Research
Objectives; in the intervening year, steps have been taken in pursuit of
them. In preparing this Third Plan, the Member Agencies have agreed on
three new objectives. These, along with a status report on the six, original
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objectives, are presented in Part II. The three new USC/FAR Research
Objectives are listed below with action responsibilities indicated.
Objective III-1: Assess the state of research on the political,
social', economic, military and foreign policy dynamics of the countries
of the Near East & South Asia and develop recommendations in this field
for the USC FAR Agency cies. ACTION: USC/F R Consu tative Group on Near
East & South Asia.
Objective 111-2: Explore the need and, as appropriate, recommend
steps for advancing knowledge about the evolution, dnamics an long-
range implications of emergent international sociej societies as
manifested in multinational public and p ivate institutions, areas of
interdependence among nations and various transnational phenomena, with
particular attention to the impact and implications of scientific and
technological develo ments. ACTION: USC/FAR Consultative Group on
Internationa tic al-Social Relations.
Objective 111-3: Assist ACDA in assessing the priority research
needs in the field of arms control and disarmament and develop recommenda-
t ons in this field for the USCJ FAR Agencies..ACTIGN: USC/FAR Consulta-
tive Group on International Military Relations.
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PART II
USC/FAR RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
A. INTRODUCTION
As in the Second USC/FAR Consolidated Research Plan for FY-1973+74,
this part of the current plan contains statements setting forth some
common research objectives of the Member Agencies. For each objective,
action responsibilities are specified.
In developing these statements, Members first reviewed and evaluated
the data on resource magnitudes and allocations presented in Part III of
this Plan in order to identify major "gaps" or "imbalances." While doing
so, they were mindful of the continuing pertinence of the USC/FAR Research
Objectives contained in the Second Plan. Section B below provides a brief
status report on each of those Research Objectives.
Also in assessing the data in Part III, Members were fully aware
that there exists no simple set of criteria applicable to evaluating the
adequacy, scope and balance of the planned research effort. Even if
some rational model of sufficiency and balance in foreign affairs research
were to exist, it could not be used'to judge the USC/FAR planned program
unless the model took adequate account, inter alia, of the following
factors: (1) National and agency policy and mission priorities, (2) the
levels and distribution of support for external research on foreign
affairs provided by all other government agencies and by the private
sector; (3) the magnitude, scope and emphases of pertinent government
in-house research; (4) the extent to which new research is an important
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element in improving the content of present or future policy; (5) those
foreign sensitivities and national security factors which may make external
research supported by USC/FAR Member Agencies particularly difficult or
inappropriate.
However imprecisely and impressionistically, estimates of these and
other factors were in the minds of Members as they assessed the data in
Part III and agreed on the new USC/FAR Research Objectives contained
in Section C below. Pursuit of these Research Objectives, they believe,
will help effect changes in their research support for the years ahead in
ways that will enhance the contributions their programs can make to the
broad national research effort on foreign affairs. Others may disagree
with the judgments on which rest the selection and formulation of these
Research Objectives. It is partly to invite those who disagree to share
their views with the USC/FAR Member Agencies that this Third Plan will
be widely distributed in and out of government.
One final introductory note. In evaluating the data in Part III,
systematic
the Members made no/attempt to identify "gaps" and "imbalances" within
the various regional categories and major functional fields. It was
decided that these tasks are best left to the regional and functional
USC/FAR Consultative Groups, each of which has not only the appropriate
expertise but also the advantage of being closer to the action as plans
are implemented through specific project contracts and grants.All USC/FAR
Consultative Group Chairmen are requested to make this an early item of
business upon their receipt of this Third Plan.
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B. OBJECTIVES OF THE SECOND PLAN. S
The six USC/FAR Research Objectives listed below were adopted in
conjunction with preparation of the Second Plan in the summer of 1973.
This section reports on actions taken in pursuit of these objectives
during the intervening year. Action on two of the objectives (11-3 and
II-4)'is completed, that on the remaining four continues.
Objective II-1: Improve the bases of choice in foreign affairs
through the development and application of quantitative analytical
ec nic~ues.
The USC/FAR Consultative Group on General Research charged to act
on this Objective, has focussed its attention on a National Science
Foundation-sponsored "Conference on the Successes and Failures of Sci-
entific International Relations Research." The Group felt that this
conference, which convened in California late in June, 1973, could be
an important first step toward accomplishing Objective #1. The Chairman
and other interested members of the Group therefore kept in touch with
the NSF project officer and are now arranging for a late summer meeting
of the Group with the conference Chairman. The Group will then consider
what, in pursuit of Objective #1, might be useful next steps to capitalize
on the results of the NSF-sponsored conference.
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 AOV3@ttJ%fLprJ%Oasef ~Op 4 / i iF o - R9 10NE M W on the
PRC by Increasing the Exchange of Well -Ordered Data Between the Govern-
ment and the Academic Community.
The USC/FAR Executive Secretariat, working in concert with the
Chairman of the USC/FAR Consultative Groups on East Asia and General
Research, convened a number of ad hoc meetings of selected officers from
Member and other agencies in order better to define the problem and map
a course of action. There emerged a solid consensus that more precise
knowledge was needed about those factors which all agreed are important
to making an exchange of China data feasible and useful in addition to its
being desirable. Since information about these factors is widely scattered
in both the government and the academic community, it was decided that the
service of a competent scholar with government experience was needed to
conduct an inquiry and prepare a feasibility study. For this purpose,
the Department of State has negotiated a contract with Professor Davis
Bobrow of the University of Minnesota. To assure maximum coordination,
Professor Bobrow will work closely with a sub-group of the Chinese-English
Translation Assistance project (CETA). CETA is itself an interagency
activity closely related to the USC/FAR Consultative Group on East Asia
and involving a high degree of government-academic cooperation. Professor
Bobrow's study is expected to be completed near the end of 1973. In the
meantime, this Third Plan shows that the USC/FAR plans to increase sub-
stantially the level of support for external research on the PRC: from
$591,000 for FY-73+74 to $1,010,000 for FY-74+75.
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Objective 11-3: DeT veli Common Approaches to USCFAR Member Agency
Support of Policy Studies wi Multi-Agent Interest..-
To take action on this Objective, the USC/FAR Chairman named two
State Department officers as co-chairmen of an ad hoc working group on
policy studies. Nine Member and Observer Agencies designated representa-
Second
tives to serve on the Group. As indicated in the/Plan, the Group took
as its primary task to assess the desirability and feasibility of a multi-
agency program of competitively awarded grants (or contracts) to univer-
sity foreign affairs policy study groups. A series cf preliminary questions and
guidelines was circulated to members of the group for comments. The respon-
ses made clear that almost all agencies felt one or more of the following
to be true: common approaches presuppose a greater mutuality of interests
on the part of USC/FAR agencies than actually exists; policy studies should
be an integral part of agency research programs, not separated out for
special treatment; in a period of budgetary constraint, the USC/FAR should
avoid raising false hopes that it might become a new source of research
funds; university based research has no unique claim on the research budgets
of mission agencies. It was therefore decided that further action on this
Objective had little chance of bearing fruit and should be abandoned.
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Objective 11-4: Reverse the Persistent Downward Trend in the Fund-
ing of Policy-Related Foreign Affairs Research.
972
In September /the Chairman of the Under Secretaries Committee sent
a memorandum to the Heads and Deputy Heads of Member and Observer Agencies
calling attention to this Objective and inviting all the funding depart-
ments and agencies to consider making increased allocations for foreign
affairs external research from their FY-1973 and FY-1974 appropriations.
He also asked the Office of Management and Budget to give a particularly
sympathetic hearing to those departments and agencies requesting higher
funding levels in FY-1974. Table 111-2 in this Third Plan shows that
the Department of Defense was the only Member Agency that found it possible
fi'1 "A'A
to increase its estimated funding for either FY-1973 or FY-1974. All others
show a decrease for both years. As a result, the USC/FAR total currently
estimated for FY-73+74 is $1,483,000 short of the $49,291,000 estimated
for those two years in the Second Plan. However, for FY-1975, AID, State
and USIA have projected increases which will bring the currently estimated
FY-1974
USC/FAR total for FY-74+75 up to $54,599,000 despite a projected/decrease
by Defense and the absence of FY-1975 data from ACDA and the NSC Staff.
The increase projected by AID/ma esYthe7major contribution to this welcome
reversal of the downward trend of the past several years.
As part of this Objective, most Member Agencies also expressed support
for recent increases in the size of the State Department's program and for
its accelerated growth. Figures contained in this Third Plan show that
State plans to continue this growth at least through FY-1975. Finally,
in connection with the FY-1973 program, the USC/FAR Chairman gave encourage-
ment to collaborative funding arrangements involving State and other agencies,
and AID.
particularly the Department cf Defense/ As a result, State and DoD arranged
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during FY-1973 collaborative funding on three projects costing a total
of $158,954 and the two Departments plan further collaborative projects
for FY-19'74. In addition, State and four other agencies entered into two
additional collaborative projects costing a total of $70,000. Through
(Apto)
these earrangements the State budgetphas in effect been stretched to meet
a larger portion of its priority research needs than could be covered by
its own funds alone.
Other than giving continuing encouragement to the collaborative
funding of projects, no further action in pursuit of this Objective is
currently contemplated. However, the USC/FAR Member Agencies will review
the situation as part of each annual planning cycle.
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Objective 11-5: Improvegovernment support for and USC/FAR Member
Agency use of Soviet studies conducted in the F ate sector.
The USC/FAR Consultative Group on Europe, to which action on this
Objective was assigned, discussed in December various private and govern-
ment-sponsored assessments of the state of Slavic studies. The participants
reviewed their respective agency research plans and concluded that there
was little immediate prospect of government action to reverse the marked
decline of support for research on Soviet studies. In discussing an academic
community proposal to establish in Washington a small center for Soviet
studies, the Group expressed doubt about the availability of government
funds for basic institutional support but felt that agencies with contract
programs involving Soviet studies would find such a center quite helpful
in connection with selected projects and as a means of deepening relations
with the academic community. Private scholars associated with the center
idea indicate that prospects for private funding are brightening. The
Chairman of the Consultative Group on Europe is also seeking to facilitate
private research by consulting with other government officers on the prac-
ticality of expanding U.S.-Soviet scholar and book exchange programs. In
addition, the Chairman and senior planning officials of the Department of
State recently visited a number of research institutes in Eastern Europe
and the USSR. Finally, this Third Plan shows that the USC/FAR Member
Agencies plan to increase somewhat their support for external research on
the USSR: from $1,061,000 for FY-73+74 to $1,254,000 for FY-74+75.
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Sjective : xpan and improve governme t support for policy-
related external research in international economic relations.
The USC/FAR Consultative Group on International Economic Relations,
to which action on this Objective was assigned, met in January, 1973.
Discussion centered on the growing importance and complexity of research
in this field, on past efforts to set research priorities, and on the
large number of interested government agencies. It was then decided to
set up a working group to assess, in accord with this objective, the ade-
quacy of government support for external research on international economic
relations, to suggest priorities for such research which take into
account relevant in-house research and to study machinery for insuring
improved pre-contract coordination of external research projects.
The working group, consisting of representatives from Treasury, NSC,
CIEP and State, met in April, 1973 and decided to concentrate first on im-
proving the pre-contract coordination of projects. In experimenting with
devices for this purpose, the working group has had encouraging cooperation
from five other agencies, some of which participated in a May meeting.
Cooperative project design and the possibility of joint funding is parti-
cularly promising in connection with one major project dealt with by the
working group. This group intends to offer additional projects for such
collaboration in FY-1974 before reporting back to the USC/FAR Consultative
Group on International Economic Relations.
Under the Third Plan, funds for research on international economic
relations, unlike 'those for any other field of international relations
research, will be larger in FY-74+75 than they were in FY-73+74.. Despite
this 3.4% increase, the fields share of the total for all foreign affairs
research will decrease from 6.7% to 6.2%.
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C. NEW RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
The following objectives are those agreed to by the USC/FAR
Member Agencies in conjunction with preparation of this Third Plan.
Objective III-1: Assess the State of Research on the Political,
Social, Economic, Military and ores n Po is _.Ynamics owe Countries
of the Near East & South Asia and Develop Recommendations in this Field-
for the USC/FAR Agencies.
According to this Third Plan, the USC/FAR Member Agencies as a
group plan to spend in FY-74+75 1.5%($80& 000) of their total external
research resources on studies centered on the Near East & South Asia.
This represents a substantial decline from the 3.5% ($1,724,000) that the
Second Plan allocated to this region for FY-73+74.
To a large degree this decrease reflects the fact that in the earlier
planning period the AID projection ($850,000) accounted for almost half
the total,whereas in the current planning period AID projects no work
on the area. Although State and USIA each show significant percentage in-
creases, the magnitudes are such that these fall far short of balancing
a sharp decline in Defense's allocation.
It is not readily apparent whether the level of effort projected for
FY-74+75 is either adequate or optimally programmed to meet the needs of
the U.S. Government. Superficially, the importance of the area would seem
to require a greater level of effort. But the difficulties of conducting
the nature of the problems in the area,
social science research in many countries of the region,/ the state of
government in-house research, and the state of private research may be
such as to indicate that the planned level is appropriate. Judgments
differ on these matters both in the government and in the private research
ILLEGIB
sector. Since the area is a large and diverse one, different judgmentsILLEQIB
may well be appropriate for
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The USC/FAR Member Agencies believe. that the region is of sufficient
importance to the U.S. Government to justify an effort to reach a more
definitive judgment on these issues than now prevails,. Therefore:
Action III-1: The USC/FAR Consultative Group on the Near East
& South Asia is requested to undertake the assessment called for in this
objective and to develop recommendations appropriate for, the FY-1975-79
time frame. To assist in next year's planning cycle, the Group Chairman
should deliver a status report to the USC/FAR Chairman no later than
February 1, 1974.
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Objective 111-2: Explore the need and, asp appropriate, recommend
steps for advancing is ,~ wl edge about the evolution, d_Ynami cs and off n
range fm plications c , me gent international society societies as
manifested in multir-.-t-ional public and private institutions, areas of
interdependence arnor!-i nations and various transnatiohal, phenomena *r
a _ `~rryrrs- air-twt+-w-.su~u
iplnr.,.:~rttS
Some important s!:hools of contemporary thought hold: that the society
of nation-states is V,rJng transformed into a world society if not a global
village. Economic aJ military interdependencies among nations are said
to point in this dir?c,~tion. Advances in the life, physical and behavioral
sciences are said to ontain the seeds of new technologies that will add
Impetus to the transfernnation already accelerated by jet transportation,
television, satellite communications, etc. The "international culture
of science" is itself seen by some as an element contributing to the
transformation, as are tourism, multinational corporations, international
professional associations, and common elements in the aspirations and
ecological settings of the world's peoples.
Despite the proliferation of regional and global international public
and private institutions having either general or highly specialized
functions, it is frequently said that the international political forms
and practices for coping with either the transformation or its outcome
have yet to be instituted. Indeed, for some, the adequacy of prevailing
political concepts is being challenged and appropriate new concepts are
yet to be invented, let alone accepted.
The extent to which some of the above language of transformation
and interdependence has found its way into official U.S. policy statements
suggests the need to better sort out the fundamental from the ephemeral
in these matters. Yet the USC/FAR Member Agencies plan to devote only
a miniscule portion of their external research resources to the support
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of studies that would contribute directly to that task.
This Third Plan shows that as one of ten broad functional fields
for research, international political-social relations will command only
3.6% ($1,980,000) of USC/FAR resources for FY-74+75, down from 7.1% in the
FY-73+74 planning period. Within this field, research focussed specifi-
cally on global or regional international organizations will be supported
at the level of $108,000. USC/FAR resources planned for the study of
international relations in the oceans, outer-space, the environment, etc.,
amount to $57,000. By a generous interpretation,one could add to these
sums $155,000 planned for the study of national science-technology affairs
and $81,000 for the study of international organizations for economic
cooperation. The grand total of $401,000 represents about .7% of the
USC/FAR total for FY-74+75.
Do these figures suggest a serious gap in the planning of the
USC/FAR Member Agencies? Or is it a gap made acceptable on the grounds
that sufficient research attention is being given to this area of concern
by the private research sector and such agencies as the National Science
Foundation, the Atomic Energy Commission, units of the Department of
Health, Education and Welfare, the Environmental Protection Agency,
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Ocean-
ographic and Atmospheric Administration, etc? If the latter, are the
USC/FAR Member Agencies sufficiently cognizant of this body of research
to tap those results that bear in important ways on foreign and national
security policy?
The USC/FAR Member Agencies have no agreed answers to these questions
but believe them of sufficient importance to adopt this objective and
expend some effort in its pursuit. Therefore:
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Action 111-2: The USC/FAR Consultative Group on International
Political-Social Relations is requested to undertake the exploration
called for in this objective and to develop recommendations appropriate
for the FY-1975-79 time frame. To assist in next year's planning cycle,
the Group Chairman should deliver a status report to. the USC/FAR Chair-
man no later than February 1, 1974.
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Objective 111-3: Assist ACDA in assessing the priority research
needs in the field of arms control and disarmament and deve o recommenda-
tions in this fie Mor the USC/FAR Agencies.
Table 111-2 in this Third Plan shows a steep decline in the funding
of external research by the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, from
over $675,000 in FY-69 to an estimated $166,000 in FY-73 to a projected
$35,000 in FY-74. Furthermore, whereas the USC/FAR Member Agencies as
a group planned for FY-73+74 to spend $339,940 on the two functional
sub-fields that deal d1rectly with arms control matters, the figure
for FY-74+75 is $265,000 with all but $38,000 of that projected by
Defense and State.
It is perhaps open to question whether these changes are more the
result of a reasoned assessment of the government's need for external
research in this field or more the result of the vagaries of the budget-
making and appropriations process. In any event, ACDA has indicated that
it will be reviewing the adequacy of its FY-74 program and determining
the amount it will request for FY-75. Other Member Agencies believe
that they as well as the ACDA review will benefit from a coordinated
effort to assess the government's needs in this field. Therefore:
Action 111-3: The USC/FAR Consultative Group on International Mili-
tary Relations is requested to assist ACDA, through its representative
to that Group, in making the assessment called for by this objective
and developing recommendations appropriate for the FY-1975-79 time frame.
To be helpful in next year's planning cycle, the Group Chairman should ILLEGIB
deliver a status report to the USC/FAR Chairman no later than February 1.
1974.
Approved For Release 2005/07/14: CIA-RDP86B00985R000100170005-9