NEPAL'S PRIME MINISTER THAPA: CLINGING TO POWER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000700550001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 11, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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Central Intelligence Agency
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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
11 February 1983
Nepal's Prime Minister Thapa: Clinging to Power
Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa clings to power despite
considerable evidence over the past 15 months that King Birendra
has been seriously considering replacing him. Although Thapa's
February visit to Washington is mainly for health reasons, we
believe that his meetings with high-Zeve1 US officials are
designed both to help pave the way for the Kings visit Zater
.this year and to shore up his own political position in
Kathmandu. We expect that royal dissatisfaction with Thapa will
ultimately prompt his dismissal but--barring a crisis--not until
after the Kinq's visit to the United States.
hydroelectric resources--we expect his visit to be primaril
There are no outstanding issues between Nepal and the United
States. Although Prime Minister Thapa may bring up some
substantive issues--such as US aid and Nepal's development of its
protocolary.
Birendra. We believe that Thapa opes his meetings with
high level US officials could hel shore up his political
position at home.
Office of Near East-South Asia Analysis, South Asia Division,
Subcontinent Branch. It was coordinated with the National
Intelligence Council and the Directorate of Operations.
Questions and comments are welcome and may be directed to the
This memorandum was prepared by
author
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The King and His Prime Minister
Although nominally a constitutional ruler, King Birendra is
in reality one of the world's few remaining absolute monarchs.
He is commander in chief of the armed forces, and he ultimately
guides government policy through the Prime Minister and the
Cabinet. The Prime Minister is technically chosen by the
National Panchayat (legislature), but the King has considerable
leverage. Once elected, the Prime Minister serves at the King's
ThaAa's Assets and Liabilities
Thapa's most potent political skills are an instinct for
survival, a well-honed talent for unscrupulous but effective
maneuvering, and a proven ability to exploit the mistakes of his
adversaries. He has remained in power despite his almost
universal unpopularity in the National Panchayat because he still
manages to control the assembly and deliver the votes the King
wants. ~~
The Prime Minister's apparent inability to manage the King's
economic development efforts may prove his undoing. Thapa's
government has promised to tackle Nepal's grave economic
problems--including rising prices and severe shortages of basic
commodities--but has visibly failed to do so.
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Growing Opposition
Although opposition to Thapa's leadership has been growing
steadily within the National Panchayat, efforts by its members to
isolate and dislodge him have been consistently unsuccessful. In
each case, Thapa has deftly sidestepped his critics and has
managed to consolidate his own power at their expense.
The King is aware of Thapa's shortcomings, but despite his
displeasure with Thapa's performance he has chosen to retain
him. The Prime Minister serves as a useful buffer between the
government and the monarchy and could be a useful scapegoat
should the King need one. In addition, the King is eager to
project a democratic image and to let his new constitution
Outlook
If the government's image and performance do not begin to
improve in the next few months, the King may have no choice but
to dismiss the Prime Minister and assume a more active role in
government. Popular displeasure with Thapa--who we believe is
increasingly seen as a creature of the King--has already begun to
spill over to the monarchy.
serious food shortages in many parts of Nepal last year severely
25X1
25X1
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tested Thapa's--and by extension the King's--credibility. We
believe that retaining Thapa could also increase public cynicism
toward the King's economic development and decentralization
Y11' r1 n r ~ ~n ~
In our view, the King is unlikely to remove the Prime
Minister until after the ro al visit to the United States later
this year.
In a crisis, we would expect the King to exercise his
constitutional power and remove the Prime Minister through
summary action. He could be forced to do so as early as this
spring if projected food shortages become more serious than we
PYY1Cn F
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SUBJECT: Nepal's Prime Minister Thapa: Clinging to Power
Internal Distribution
1 - D/NESA
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - PDB STAFF
1 - OCPAS FOREIGN LIAISON STAFF
4 - OCPAS/IMD/CB
2 - NESA/PS
1 - NESA/SO/D
2 - NESA/SO/S Branch
DDI/NESA/SO/S 1Feb83)
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